$MSFT - W shaped reversal breakout above $433MSFT - stock close to breaking $433 resistance level for an upside move towards $446. Stock is strong on indicator level. Stock is forming a W- shaped bullish reversal on charts.
MSFT trade ideas
MSFT Share Buyback + Bull Flag BreakoutMSFT had a shorter term bull flag breakout last week, but stalled around $430 which has been previous support/resistance. Not much action on it today, but they just announced a buyback and dividend after hours. So far only seeing a small pop in after hours trading.
I'm skeptical about tech stocks in particular being bullish, but right now we have a lot of breakouts and bullish charts. I wouldn't do anything crazy until after FOMC, but this is one I'll have my eye on. Not only do we have the news, but I consider this $430 area to be a major one.
If it is able to break back above and continue the momentum, it should eventually hit the bull flag pole target around $456. Next upside target from there would be ATH. I'd be comfortable holding longs until it breaks back below $430 at which point I'd stop out.
Microsoft Clear Bearish Elliott Wave PatternMicrosoft (MSFT) has a clear Elliott five – wave pattern for it’s July to August decline. The subsequent rally off the August bottom is a clear Elliott wave Single Zigzag correction.
This pattern could be complete somewhere near a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the July to August decline.
An important top could made sometime near the next U.S. – FOMC interest rate decision due on 09/18/24.
MSFT Daily OverviewMICROSOFT remains one of my favourite instruments in STOCK TRADING.
I've always enjoyed watching it's price movements, I believe it has remained a solid investment consistently.
Right now I believe Microsoft is about to start recovering from it's recent drawdown and start to move bullish after it hit a major RESISTANCE zone.
We will do further analysis on this instrument once more bars are printed!
Negative signals on Microsoft as AI plumet on the wayWe identify a negative shoulder-head-shoulder formation which at it's end touches the 200 day line, all ahead of today's news that the chip maker's market is plumeting. Additional put/sell signals are triggered when the trend lines confirm or the price won't come back over 200D.
Microsoft is renown for its involvement in AI products, especially in OpenAI. The demand for chips halted when NVIDIA recently postponed the release of Blackwell, the next generation of AI-propelling chips. Data centers equipping for future demands on AI business withhold investments as they won't run with the current generation of chips for the short period of time until Blackwell is launching, but with the latest generation and cutting-edge technology for the maximum time possible.
Meanwhile the think tank and advisor to U.S. Military and Government, RAND Corporation , surveyed why AI projects in the industry fail:
Miscommunication or misunderstanding what problems need to be solved using AI, following a false perception of what AI can actually do - beginning with the impression the term "AI" makes to non-tech persons.
Organizations lack the necessary data to adequately train effective AI models. The necessary amount of data might never be acquired due to diverse obstacles on collecting them.
Organizations focus more on using the latest and greatest technology than on solving real problems for their intended users. Therefore, the circle of problems where AI solutions are applicable, might not be as big as initially thought. This is what happened to the blockchain.
Organizations might not have adequate infrastructure to manage their data and deploy completed AI models, which increases the likelihood of project failure. Infrastructure for serious AI is exhaustive and needs up to 300-times bigger databases and hardware equipment than for regular software services. Then again, you have to feed it all with the required amount of data, of which, as pointed out earlier, is not enough there.
AI projects fail because the technology is applied to problems that are too difficult for AI to solve. This is a general problem on the current generation of AI, as it lacks the required spark of creativity to originate ideas which are not based on patterns earlier learned. In other terms, generative, LLM-based AI, which is the current generation, would never be able to be a pioneer in anything, because it remixes mash-ups from earlier experience, at best!
The current dips of chip makers, combined with the problems of sourcing sufficient data and industry becoming more and more disenchanted with AI, might trigger another tech bubble burst, which, if it happens, would be imminent right now.
MSFT looks good but be carefulMSFT is recovering from a huge drop a few weeks ago. It has formed a higher low, and now we need to see a higher high (check the right shoulder of the H&S pattern). If we see a higher high, we can safely say that we have a continuation of the uptrend, with a likely target of an all-time high (ATH).
However, if MSFT drops and falls below the neckline, it could be the end for MSFT for years. MSFT has formed a huge H&S pattern with a neckline around 400. So, there are several significant support levels: the round number 400, the neckline, and the trendline from 2022. If MSFT drops below these, it could be disastrous.
$MSFT - What if?NASDAQ:MSFT Another chart that shows a potential head and shoulders pattern. Remember, the pattern is only valid if the price closes below the neckline for 2 to 3 trading sessions.
I am just going to watch and see what happens.👀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
MSFT MACD crossed upMACD histogram crossed up with market stabilizing. MSFT also in AI sector that can get hot again.
Microsoft - Correction Is Not Over Yet!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) can still drop a little lower:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It seems like the correction on Microsoft is not over yet and following previous price action and market structure, a move back to the previous triangle breakout level seems to be quite likely. However Microsoft still remains in an overall bullish market so looking for long setups is best.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Simple Portfolio Management StrategiesSimple Portfolio Management Strategies
In financial market systems, where complexity often obscures the path to effective trading and investing, there can still be clarity and certainty based on the use of simple portfolio management strategies. In this FXOpen article, you will learn about portfolio meaning in investment and how to manage it.
Investment Portfolio: Fundamentals
When talking about portfolio management, the investment portfolio definition often comes to mind. However, portfolio management can be an effective technique not only for investors but also for medium- and long-term traders.
The traditional definition states that an investment portfolio is a carefully selected collection of assets, such as stocks, bonds, indices, commodities, real estate and more, owned by an individual. This collection is not just a random assortment — it is selected strategically with the aim of achieving specific financial goals while managing risks.
An investment portfolio is not static. It responds to market conditions, economic shifts, and personal goals. Therefore, it’s vital to have various portfolio management strategies in place to adapt to market conditions.
Although traders don’t own the assets they trade, if they hold positions for days, weeks, or even months, they can also implement the following strategies.
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The Concept of Equal Weight Allocation
Equal weight allocation means dividing your investments equally among the different assets in your portfolio. This is made to sidestep the trap of putting all your eggs in one basket. This strategy minimises the impact of any single asset’s performance on your overall portfolio.
Advantages
Equal weight allocation offers a panoramic view of the market. Distributing your investments helps you gain exposure to diverse assets, reducing vulnerability to market swings. It’s a balanced approach.
Considerations
Equal weight allocation doesn’t consider individual asset performance or risk. This means that the loss in one asset may exceed the income from another, but for traders who value a straightforward path, this option works.
The Main Ways to Diversify
Think of diversification as your safety net. This strategy involves spreading your investments across various assets, making your portfolio resilient to turbulence. If one falters, others pick up the slack, minimising the potential losses.
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
MPT is one of the approaches to diversification. It’s like assembling the perfect puzzle, optimising your portfolio based on your risk tolerance and the desired return. The theory suggests that investors are risk-averse, so the main task is to boost profits with minimal risks. This approach makes your fund allocation harmonious.
Sector and Industry Diversification
There is an opinion that the diversification of sectors and industries is a fine art, but you can definitely learn it if you read a lot and track market changes. By allocating your investments to sectors that work differently in various conditions, you further reduce the risk.
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Spreading investments across different asset classes minimises the impact of a poor-performing asset. This helps to stabilise the portfolio during market fluctuations. Diversification allows exposure to multiple sectors, industries, and regions, increasing the chances of benefiting from emerging trends.
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Holding too many assets can lead to increased complexity in portfolio management. Managing a portfolio requires regular monitoring and adjustments. Also, it’s vital to know how to choose assets that are negatively correlated, as if assets are positively correlated, they will move in a similar direction even when your price predictions are incorrect.
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The Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy
Dollar-cost averaging means investing a certain amount regularly, regardless of market ups and downs. The strategy involves reducing the impact of volatility by dividing the entire amount of investments into parts that are invested according to a predetermined schedule. This is a reasonable step aimed at mitigating the effects of market volatility.
Advantages
DCA turns market fluctuations into its ally, allowing you to accumulate more when prices are low and less when they are high. The strategy provides psychological relief from consistent investment.
Considerations
DCA might miss out on rapid market upswings, but by and large, this is a strategy of balance and moderation, mitigating the effects of market volatility.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Portfolio rebalancing is the practice of adjusting your portfolio back to its original allocation. Think of your investment portfolio as a garden. Just as plants grow at different rates, the assets in your portfolio can change over time. Rebalancing a portfolio is like tending your garden, making sure that no one plant overwhelms the others.
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In a trading portfolio, you can set precise targets for risky and risk-averse assets, control the number of positions in both groups and rebalance depending on the market conditions.
Why Rebalance?
Market fluctuations can upset the balance of your portfolio. Rebalancing prevents one asset from dominating and helps to manage risks. This brings your portfolio in line with your goals and risk tolerance.
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Rebalancing ensures that your portfolio stays in line with your initial asset allocation, preventing it from drifting due to market changes. It also helps prevent the portfolio from becoming overly concentrated in a single asset class.
Considerations
Deciding when and how often to rebalance can be challenging, as overreacting to short-term market movements may hinder long-term performance. Additionally, frequent rebalancing can lead to increased trading costs.
Final Thoughts
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MSFT: Buy ideaBuy idea on MSFT as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator by a big green candle follow by a large green volume.
Major Head And Shoulders BEARISH pattern on MSFT!🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
MSFT Resistance Broken
Microsoft has been in a bearish channel since July with the 417 area of S/R lost in late August. Microsoft tried to break thru Sep 3 but was rejected. Unless 417 broken, more downside ahead.
MSFT ShortBig sellers for the last week. Sellers also showing up on daily. Without a buyer stepping in tomorrow or next week we can see further downside.
MSFT at Risk for More DownsideNASDAQ:MSFT needs to do a split. It doesn't have buybacks at this time. It is at risk of more downside until it hits prior lows. Support should kick in at the lows of prior rebound areas. The last earnings report was good. Percentage of Shares Held by Institutions ticked up this quarter.
msft stock daily chartswe can see on the left that miicrosoft has been trneding up with higher highs and higher lows until that flipped zone which i marked out that pushed it down shifting structure.
Now price is rejecting off that level and reaching the 0.5fib, also a demand zone.
However price has been respecting daily bearish gaps thus far
so let's see if this 0.5 fib level holds, if it breaks downwards, then price should go down.
i'm more bearish for now, unless nfp pushes price back up with force
microsoft outlook using smart money conceptsWeekly trend is still up, but fvgs formed on the way down, showing bearish intent
Price swept the 2 april lows' liquidity and then moved back up strongly on 5 aug week, creating a weekly bisi in the process, which is a bullish sign. Now bulls want to see the weekly fvg hold but currently it looks like its not holding. I will remain bullish only if this week's candle closed with lower wick to respect the bisi. Which means nfp has to push price up by a lot, if not, more downside to come
MSFT Price RecapPrice Recap:
After breaking below a long term uptrend on the daily and weekly, MSFT’s price sold to a key demand zone before retracing back to the bottom side of the previous long term uptrend. Price rejected the bottom side of the previous long term uptrend in addition to rejecting a previous key resistance area. MSFT’s price is now consolidating between 405.14 and 425.21.
Trade Idea:
If price continues to sell below 405.14, watch for a move to 398.29 and 389.10. If begins to bounce from this demand point, watch for entries to the high of the current HTF range on. The daily.
Additional Considerations:
- Jeanius buy signal (Monthly and Daily)
- Holding 200ma
- Hovering RSI midpoint
- Possible head and shoulders on the HTF
The shares may return to the 385 USD support levelA head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming on the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock chart.
The right shoulder of the pattern is currently taking shape, indicating that the stock price could drop to the neckline at 385.00 USD.
A break below this level may lead to a further decline in price to 340.00 USD.
MSFTFor Microsoft stock (MSFT), I expect a continued decline to 385, and if it closes below that level, it may continue to drop to 343
Short MicrosoftSell Microsoft until 360-340, the price action is clear, confirmation was found in 4h.
