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NOVAVAX INC

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NVAX trade ideas

Novavax (NVAX) Imminent Breakout from this Accumulation RangeI started an Investment Gems series with hopes of finding the best long-term investment opportunities in the bear market. NVAX was by far my favorite investment opportunity because I see a clear path for NVAX to climb from $6-7 price levels to $288. As discussed in my previous analysis, NVAX has reached this $288 price target 3 times in the past and I believe that there will be a fourth time. My previous analysis can be found here: Current Accumulation Range At the end of May I began posting NVAX as an investment gem with a buy zone between $6.50 and $7 (the two yellow lines). Bullish news came out, in which NVAX was given a $350 million payout for unused COVID vaccines that resulted in a quick 55% pump to the orange trendline ($9.18) We have been trading NVAX along this accumulation range by selling above the $9.18 orange trendline and buying in the buy zone between $6.50 and $7. These buy and sell opportunities are marked with red and green arrows. NVAX is currently trending towards the buy zone for another buy opportunity. However, I think that NVAX is likely to breakout from this accumulation phase within the next few weeks or months. I would be cautious of getting shaken out by selling at $9.18 and NVAX ends up trending up higher towards the long-term $288 price target. For me NVAX is a long-term play to $288.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by realchartchamp
NVAX Long Term Investment to $288AX buy range was between $6.50 and $7. I was also willing to DCA down to $5.50. After entering the buy zone, bullish news came out and NVAX had a 55% pump to $10. $8 was acting as a local support level and NVAX is showing continued bullishness for now. This is a long term hold for me (3-5 years with a long term price target around $288) Target Price TP 1 $10 is the first key price target TP 2 $23 is the second key price target I can add more price targets later, but I will be holding until $288.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by realchartchamp
2
Will Novavax NVAX go higher? SHORTNVAX popped today for a price jump of more than 20%. Canada agreed to pay out on a contract for COVID vaccines it now does not want in the amount of $350M. This is hardly enough to the fundamentals of the company overall. So the question arises, have traders and / or investors overreacted to a one time bonus which is essentially revenue without overhead and expense. My opinion is that this is an overreaction and that the price will drop after the pop hits a high. Buying long right now is essentially the risk of buying a high that will not go higher. On the Chris Moody dual RSI indicator, the longer one hour TM in black is over 75 while the shorter 5 minute TM in blue has peaked and dropped from 95 to 60. This is in essence bearish divergence. The other indicator, the mass index, shows the value arriving at the reversal zone where a drop to below 26.5 will be the trigger. Overall, for both fundamental and technical reasons, I will enter a short trade on NVAX expecting a correction / pullback from the pop the stock got after a one-time bonus of a payout for not producing unneeded vaccines.
NASDAQ:NVAXShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
Can NVAX rise again?NVAX has had significant down trending over a wide range of time. On the 4H chart it seems to be pivoting from a swing bottom 3-4 days ago. This is accompanied by a cross of the MACD lines under the histogram on that indicator and a flip of volatility on the relative volatility indicator. NVAX has been subject to significant short selling. Price is presently nearly two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP set in mid May. Basically it is in deep undervalued oversold territory and now with a rise. The volume profile has a point of control level considerably above the mean VWAP. This is the level with the highest volume of trades showing most trades occurred well above VWAP. This would be traders taking profit and selling or alternatively short sellers opening a position but more likely a combination of them. Price wants to ascend to at least VWAP if not the POC line. My analysis is that any significant rise could begin a squeeze on short positions. Those closing with a buy to cover trade would in effect be synergizing new buyers and add to the bullish momentum, Accordingly, I will open a position early and see if I can get in ahead of a potential short squeeze. While speculative, a narrow stop loss at 6.80 the second band line below the mean VWAP will take a lot of risk off the trade and allow me to be patient comfortably watching the price action.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by AwesomeAvani
8
$NVAX Covid Stockpile RaceOnce high short data collides with a significant catalyst the possibility of a short squeeze skyrockets. This might be the case for struggling Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) which faces the risk of filing for bankruptcy due to the waning demand for Covid vaccines. With this in mind, NVAX’s Covid vaccine was recently endorsed by the EMA for full approval which increases its chances of being included in the EU stockpile efforts. If the vaccine gets included in the EU stockpile, NVAX stock could be poised for a rebound as bankruptcy risk may be alleviated – which increases the chances for a short squeeze. NVAX Fundamentals COVID-19 made it abundantly clear that vaccine producers are a vital component of our healthcare apparatus. That said, demand for COVID-19 vaccines has been waning ever since the end of the pandemic. Major vaccine producers such as AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ: AZN) recorded sharp declines in revenue due to this waning demand as it reported a 64% YoY decline in revenues in its Q2 earnings. Similarly, NVAX experienced a steep fall in revenue from $703 million in Q1 2022 to $80 million in Q1 2023. NVAX is currently struggling due to this decrease in demand and may even face bankruptcy with the company stating that it is operating as a going concern in its Q1 report. Bankruptcy Risk Due to the decline of COVID-19 vaccine demand NVAX suffered a significant blow to its revenue stream as its product sales declined more than 100% in Q1 due to declining demand and a $65 million revenue reversal associated with doses delivered in 2022 that are scheduled for future replacement. Additionally, NVAX has a cash balance of $624.9 million which would fund the company for 2 quarters at its current cash burn rate. Looking to cut expenses to navigate through this dire financial state, NVAX laid off 25% of its workforce, however, this might not be enough as the company’s cash burn rate is significantly high. EMA Endorsement Despite this, there might be a ray of hope for NVAX as its Nuvaxovid Covid vaccine was endorsed by the EMA for full authorization. This move might save the company from bankruptcy since full authorization could be critical for NVAX as the EU is stockpiling Covid vaccines and the EMA’s endorsement could be the first step for inclusion in the stockpile. Currently, the EU has a population of 748 million and the EU’s efforts to stockpile vaccines could provide NVAX with substantial revenues if its vaccine is included. In this way, the potential revenues could offset the company’s costs which would eliminate the risk of bankruptcy. Short Data Considering the company’s financial woes, NVAX stock is witnessing a strong short selling activity with a short interest of 38.6%, 38.7% of its float on loan, and a 100% utilization rate. If Nuvaxovid is fully authorized and is included in the EU stockpile, NVAX would be able to stave off bankruptcy which might trigger a short squeeze thanks to NVAX stock’s short data. NVAX Financials According to its latest Q1 earnings NVAX’s total assets sharply declined QoQ from $2.2 billion to $1.5 billion QoQ with its cash on hand declining from $1.3 billion to $624 million. However, liabilities decreased QoQ from $2.8 billion to $2.4 billion with current liabilities declining to $124 million from $216 million. In terms of revenues, NVAX reported a steep YoY decline from $703.9 million to $80.9 million due to declining demand for Covid vaccines and a $65 million revenue reversal associated with doses delivered in 2022 that are scheduled for future replacement. At the same time, operating costs decreased YoY from $494.6 million to $393.7 million. Despite this, NVAX’s net profit of $203.4 million in Q1 2022 turned into a net loss of $293.9 million in Q1 2023. Technical Analysis NVAX stock is in a bearish trend with the stock trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, NVAX is trading below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs – with the stock testing the 21 MA as a resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 49 and the MACD is neutral. As for the fundamentals, the main catalyst for NVAX stock is staving off bankruptcy risk. With the EMA endorsing the company’s Covid vaccine for full authorization, NVAX’s chances of survival are higher than ever since its vaccine could be included in the EU stockpile. Considering the stock’s short data, a short squeeze could occur if Nuvaxovid is included in the EU stockpile – eliminating the risk of bankruptcy. NVAX Forecast NVAX is in dire financial straits and its only saving grace is the current EU’s vaccine stockpiling efforts. That said, a short squeeze is likely due to the EMA’s recent promotion of Nuvaxovid, which could be seen as a step towards inclusion in the European stockpile. However, inclusion is not assured and if Nuvaxovid is not included, then bankruptcy could be inevitable.
NASDAQ:NVAX
by Penny_Stocks_Today
NVAX Biotechnology Watch Dead Cat Bounce LONGNVAX is fundamentally weak with a shallow pipeline and no products currenly marketed to fund earnings and so research. On the 15 minute chart , NVAX is seen near to its demand zone as shown by the Luxalgo indicator. In the meanwhile, the RSI indicator shows considerable recent strength which is decreased today. So the question is whether NVAX can dead cat bounce with a potential 20% uptrend to reach the supply one or if it instead will break support and continue its descent from a double top April 14-17. I will watch this for the price action to determine whether to take a long trade or short sell this again. Other " vaccine stocks" may be in action as well including VBIV, VCNX, VAXX and MRNA.
NASDAQ:NVAX
by AwesomeAvani
NVAX - Novavax Biotech Short or not?NVAX as seen on the weekly chart has been in price distress for a long time. It has only one product on the market due to various issues with the FDA process. It has a variety of products in development as linked below. The question is whether it will run out of cash before a sustained revenue stream develops. FDA approvals for the pipeline products could take years ( the days of emergency approvals for COVID and related are over) It would seem that a rich uncle like Moderna ( MRNA) would codcme around with a take-over offer that could send shares into a moonshot to back when NVAX thrived before its 95% price decline in the past two years. This seems to be a great short swing play until more products come to market or a take-over is announced. This is affirmed by the MACD histogram being persistently negative for the long-term.
NASDAQ:NVAXShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
Selling NVAX in corrective channel.Novavax - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 27.69 (stop at 30.03) The primary trend remains bearish. Trading within a Corrective Channel formation. The trend of higher highs is located at 26.80. Previous support at 27.40 now becomes resistance. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 22.02 and 21.02 Resistance: 21.60 / 23.00 / 25.30 Support: 18.26 / 16.86 / 16.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:NVAXShort
by Saxo
Novavax in a bear flag.Novavax - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 15.49 (stop at 17.01) Daily signals are bearish. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Prices are extending lower from the bearish flag/pennant formation. Posted a bearish Flag formation. A break of 15.50 is needed to confirm the outlook. The bias is to break to the downside. This stock has seen poor sales growth. Our outlook is bearish. Our profit targets will be 12.12 and 11.62 Resistance: 18.00 / 18.55 / 19.50 Support: 16.30 / 15.53 / 15.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:NVAXShort
by Saxo
4