PTON trade ideas
Questioning with Why, Who, Which will give clue...? PTONAsk your self following and try to get answer by studying from any source:-
Why did gap 20% gap up opening?
Who have sold this stock at the top?
Which type of GAP is this?
You can type in comment section about it?
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$PTON Peloton the $TSLA of Fitness.
Having listened to the earnings call, the company has problems but great problems, meeting demand.
New products have been delayed so as to try meet the current demand
the company goes into profitability with $$$ in the bank.
Our chart looks very bullish but it is reasonable to believe that a measured move takes us to $60
50% short interest can push it there, very fast.
Earnings Highlights
Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) reports 866K connected fitness subscribers in FQ3 vs. 857K consensus estimate. Churn was 0.46% during the quarter (lowest level in four years) and the 12-month retention rate was 93%.
Subscription revenue was $98.2M, representing 92% year-over-year growth and 19% of total revenue. The increase in subscription revenue was a result of strong growth in the connected fitness subscriber base.
Gross margin was 46.8% vs. 43.9% consensus.
Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $23.5M vs. the guidance range of -$35M to -$25M.
Looking ahead, Peloton sees FQ4 revenue of $500M to $520M vs. $381M consensus and FQ4 EBITDA of $55M to $65M vs. -$25M consensus. Peloton expects over 1M full-year connected fitness subscribers.
Upgrade
In a report released today, Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer maintained a Buy rating on Peloton Interactive (PTON), with a price target of $46.00. The company’s shares closed last Wednesday at $38.03, close to its 52-week high of $39.26.
$PTON Breaking out pre market $45 target
Lots of interest in this stock going into earnings after the close
Pure play stay at home economy stock
Volume spiking and indicators
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PTON channelLooks good to me - earnings next week though could always throw a monkey wrench into the chart but she should stay in the channel
Long PTONPTON has tested support three times since it's breakout. It now appears to be breaking the downtrend. The volume profile is encouraging and looks to be under accumulation. With 40% short interest ratio, this thing can really squeeze into earnings (May 6).
Support buy from previous resistance Previous resistance was 29.50 with the name exploding through the level; however, price action retraced all the way back down to this level. The level was defended by buyers while currently forming a bullish hammer candle. A buy through 32 against LOD could be a possible buy here.
With 24 Hour Fitness on the brink of Bankruptcy - PTON is a buyAs a result of COVID-19, gyms across the country have been forced to close. The effect of these closures are now being felt by 24 hour fitness, the nations second largest fitness chain. Reportedly, the company hired Lazard investment bank and Weil, Gotshal & manges law firm. As of March 16, the company held more than $1.3 billion in debt with less than $1 million in cash. While sources debate the gym may not ultimately file for bankruptcy, it begs the question of how the fitness industry will look after the virus passes. Americans, who once considered the gym part of their daily routine, have had to find alternative ways to stay active, while simultaneously savings $ on monthly gym dues. Although PTON comes with a hefty price tag, Americans are taking advantage of low interest barring credit cards and jumping aboard the peleton train. Additionally, its recent stock performance is indicating that the future of exercising may be from the comfort of your home.
PTON Short Position WinCongrats to all who played with us from the top last Thursday! We have now seen a nearly 20% correction in stock price. We are up more than 80% on our puts but may hold out for more here until we go back into bullish territory (probably around $30).
I have 5/1 puts. I will sell this week since I do not like holding into the week of expiration.
PTON UpdateReached the peak midday. Took a sizeable loss on initial puts yesterday but added more $34 May 1 PUTS today. As expected, big price rejection and huge move down during AH to $34 level. Already nearly ITM now. Should continue this correction in the next few days.
PTON went to the Moon but it will come down to Earth againHuge move up today with the peak in the middle of the day. Way above my 99.7% upper BB line. Way too much momentum for a another huge gap up.
Entered short-term puts today 5/1 $34P and 4/24 $30P
$37.44 SL
Peloton Interactive Breakout Fibonacci TargetsHuge bull run underway for PTON
Nice confluence of Fibonacci levels @$45
$PTON - easy short, or low hurdle for PTON bulls?NASDAQ:PTON While the cloud, 100 SMA, and .618 fib level point to $29.50 as key resistance, the confluence of 50 SMA, 0.5 Fib, and Tenkan at $26.20 - $27 range may see 100 SMA flip support and price attempt continuation of uptrend (purple trend line).
Realistically looking to enter short with tight stop at any touch of lime green downtrend line ($31-$33 area)
Please share your thoughts - opposing viewpoints preferred.
Could be a blessing to Short at $29Risk and Reward is in favor of Shorting at $29.
My stop is at $30.
$PTON long ideaThis is one of the few stocks benefiting from the current social distancing measures in place all over the world. I like long over $28.70 with a stop loss below $26.00 and an initial target of $34.60ish.
PTONThis stock has seen many similar setups in the past. With the growing popularity of PTON, I would expect a break through the top part of the wedge and moves towards the mid 30s.
Bearish Head & ShouldersBearish H & S forming on the 15m. Wait for confirmation break down across the neckline before taking the trade.
ridethepig | Bullish On Home Fitness ... Pelaton At The Lows!We can start to look for single stock opportunities as behavioural economics changes as a result of the Coronavirus impact. We are talking about a dramatic loss in confidence, global OCD patient numbers are ticking higher which btw itself from time-to-time be a very useful indicator.
We are talking about an outbreak which has triggered volatility across the board and home enablers will benefit. Would it not be opportune to direct our focus towards a new sector? How to do that will be seen in the following months in the stages of transfer.
As the main background to the theme, VIX now reaches the final stages in the move towards 85 it's time to start looking for value areas in PTON:
We are starting to reach the initial targets in SPX and DAX selloffs which implies there will be some profit taking from sellers despite the fact we are entering into a recession:
DAX
SPX
Other opps... GILD will continue doing the heavy lifting on Remdesivir (GS-5734) side, this is their free pass into the Chinese Healthcare system. Models will need to start quickly repricing revenue from the Hep B cases in China. GILD will do the heavy lifting here, +/- $20 upside available on the headline for FDA approval which looks around the corner. Flow-wise, the initial target area from the latest technical break comes into play at 86. xx (+25% from current levels).
Highlights on the ownership front going to usual suspects in here, Morgan Stanley, Soros, Blackrock, Eminence and Fidelity. This is another known position, it's going to be decided in the next few days. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling.
