$PTON - Caught At Demand$PTON has started to look spicy after catching a bid at the supply zone from nearly a year back. This zone may finally mark a stable bottom for this freefalling ticker.
A strong breakout from our descending channel could likely catapult us over our overhead resistance.
This will be come of my top watches going into the new year.
PTON trade ideas
PTON$PTON is possibly setting up for some nice trades next week. A few levels to look at above and below. Trying to break out of this falling wedge, notice the strong volume at close yesterday and it's sitting right on top of the upper TL. However, VPOC (purple line) is right above and if you look left you can see all the Chop (Market Disequilibrium) and is entering that area again. Getting through that area would be my trigger to go long targeting $45-$48 calls. The 12/31 $45 calls have strong volume. On the contrary, if we are rejected at VPOC and fall back into the channel, under the upper TL on strong negative volume, than puts are the play. The 12/31 $40 puts have decent volume, but overall not a whole lot I like to the downside. As always, trade your way, these are my thoughts, not financial advice. In this market sometimes it is just better to observe and soak in what the price action is doing.
Peloton's flash was easy to identify in advance on weekly chart!Seeing oncoming possible Inverted Cup and Handle on weekly chart was a strong indicator for Peloton's fall!
We can also see a clear channel ranging between 140 and 160, confirming channel break at 130!
Further drop after 130 was obviously a completion of head!
And then the subsequent rebound around 128, and drop back to 99 was completion of Inverted Cup and Handle,
The best thing to do in this case is ofcourse to hope for a rebound beyond 128, for further upward move,
while, also supporting that expectation with strong fundamentals!
Although, we could clearly see that EPS was already expected to be negative for 6th May earnings, and it further got worse than expected in 26 Aug reports, where the August expectations themselves were way worse than May!
Further on, there was plenty of time - 48 bars on daily chart to gradually reduce the position, before we saw a flash!
Obviously, it's trading on critical historical support zone between 36 to 45.
I'd still expect another major downtrend, not sure when, as forward EPS isn't looking any better yet.
And rather wait for strong series of earnings and long lasting accumulation phase to initiate the long position again!
Back to where it all started. Price most times retestBack to where it all started. Price most times go back to test the breakout pattern. Which was a head shoulders pattern. A bounce will happen in this area. If you want to be on the safer side, you can wait for the head and shoulders reversal bottom/pattern.
Peloton, all phase of a bubble formation in market!Just look at this chart and see how after a 866% gain in 43 weeks peloton lost almost all of it in 47 weeks!
Looking at the current trend of decline in revenue, it may never get back on the past all times high!
No need to say rivals coming one after the other!
Price action trade could happen!
Do you know who created this bubble???
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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[Positional] Peloton Interactive Buy IdeaNote -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives.
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Eek look out below $PTON, next stop $68. H&S top confirmed.This is one of the ugliest charts I've come across in a while. It looks to be breaking down from a head and shoulders top w/ the neckline at ~$94.
Next stop at $68, with lower supports at $52, $43 and $34. Break one support and we'll see the next level down.
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Maybe short?Bad sityation with this share. If breakdown support - short.
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🔴 Online fitness is out of trendPeloton is an American remote training equipment company launched with funding through Kickstarter in 2013. The company is based in New York. The main product is an exercise bike that allows users to remotely participate in spinning classes that are streamed from the company's fitness studio and paid for through a monthly subscription service. Founded in 2012. Revenue $ 2.2 billion (1st half of 2021). Capitalization $ 13.8 billion
A trade on the breakout of the support level ($ 40.8).
Vaccine positive news, $ PFE vaccine effective against Omikron -> people will go to the gym more than exercise at home. Fundamentally, I don't like the company, I expect it to fall further.
1) Close of the daily candle under LOW.
2) Closing near the level.
3) Approaching the level on short candles.
5) Compression.
6) Accumulation near the level.
Long below $ 40.7 (entry by limit order)
Goal 1: $ 39.1
Goal 2: $ 35.85
Goal 3: $ 32.4
Stop above $ 41.8
NOT IRR
$PTON LONG VWAP/Average Price Analysis#PTON Average price ever paid for this stock was $79.04. Average VWAP price ever paid for this stock was $83.44. The earnings gap down happened at the same time many institutional portfolios rebalanced for years end, you can see this on many other stocks in early November. Mediocre but not bad earnings with increases in subscription services and with most money being reinvested into RD and marketing PTON is here to stay regardless of what others think with a great PEG ratio of -.03 indicating very undervalued. The next major demand zone is at 39$ the next major supply zone is at 80$ right where that average price ever paid is sitting. The likely move is a retracement test into that 39 demand zone and then a parabolic move back into that gigantic gap between $55-$80. Don't you think some orders might have been left in that massive gap? Current accumulation/Distribution volume indicates holdings equal to late September 2020 when the stock was at you guessed it the $80 range. Great play with the potential to double in price over the next 6 months to year. My choice would be JULY 2022 calls.
$PTON Peloton Falling Knife Catcher or Buy the Dip Opportunity?Much like Zillow, PTON continues to follow similar price action over the past year and just fell through a key support level at $50. It made a H&S pattern longer term earlier this year which will take this stock down to $20 if it were to fully resolve. Next key level of support is $35, then to $20 thereafter. Should be able to take advantage of some strong bounce plays between now and then on this one.