QQQ - The Time Is NowApril is wild. So take a deep breath and ... relax.
Because for traders with a longer-term investment horizon, now may be THE time to buy.
A look at the QQQ in the big picture shows that extremely strong bullish divergences have built up in the cumulative volume delta.
Yes, the crash was fast and violent. But, as we know: Fast is fake.
It can therefore be assumed that the QQQ will recover relatively soon.
Times may remain exciting for day traders, but investors on the hunt for bargains will be happy about perfect entry prices.
QQQ trade ideas
$QQQ Recap of Last Week Historic DrawdownA historic week with unprecedented tariffs not seen since right before the great depression.
NASDAQ:QQQ We broke many supports and are looking for Support
Stay Tuned - Today's Trading Range is coming out.
Don't rush into a trader just to trade - But also, if you see a great opportunity take it.
SPY QQQ NQ ES Jueves 17 Abril 2025hart Type: 15-Minute | Tool: SpotGamma + Key Wall Levels | Asset: QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
Current Trend: Mixed bias – price hovering between sell zone and key support.
📈 BULLISH SCENARIO (Long Setup)
If price holds above the 445 support zone (Put/Call Wall area), the upside targets are:
Target Level (QQQ) Equivalent (NQ) Notes
🎯 Target 1 450 18620 NQ First breakout target at Call Wall
🎯 Target 2 453.81 18780 NQ Momentum continuation if 450 breaks
🎯 Target 3 457.1 18900 NQ Final target – overlaps with sell zone
🔺 Caution: 457.1 is marked as a "Possible Sell/Target Zone" – high chance of reversal.
📉 BEARISH SCENARIO (Short Setup)
If price breaks below the 444.18 support and fails to reclaim 445:
Target Level (QQQ) Equivalent (NQ) Notes
🔻 Target 1 440.96 18240 NQ Near 0.5 retracement zone
🔻 Target 2 437.73 18100 NQ Below previous low
🔻 Extended 435 - Strong Put Wall support
🟡 Key Zone to Watch: Between 444.18 - 445. This is a pivot area where buyers/sellers are likely to step in heavily.
🧠 Key Technical Elements
Zero Gamma: Positioned near 460, showing limited upward gamma squeeze potential unless broken.
Put Walls at 435, 440, 445: Indicate strong downside gamma support—buyers may appear here.
Call Walls at 450, 455: Create resistance levels—sellers may defend these zones.
Volume Clusters and RB Zones (Rejection Blocks): Reinforce turning points.
Short term high QQQ tgt $434I had a great day with dowsing the highs & lows on QQQ today, and since hitting this high, I asked what's next & keep getting breakdown.
I did a week by week reading at the beginning of the month, and this week is supposed to take a bit of a dive & be "bottoming out". The weekly readings have been pretty helpful, so I hope this continues.
Anyway, this could be absolutely incorrect, but twice I've gotten a move to the downside on QQQ of around 5.6-.7%.
I also got some figures lower, but I'm not confident they are prices. They were 425-22. Sometimes numbers come that are something other than what I ask or expect, so it can get confusing. It's possible there's another little pop first, but It seems like a drop is imminent according to my work. Watch for a low on Wed./Thurs? I have lots of dates for this week including for a high today.
SPY/QQQ/SPX Lunes 14 Abril 2025📊 Market Instrument: Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
Timeframe: 15-minute chart
Date: April 14, 2025
Tool Used: SpotGamma Levels Overlay
🟢 Long Targets (Buy Setups)
Target Price Level Equivalent NQ Level Notes
1st Long Target 467.28 19350 NQ Initial breakout target
2nd Long Target 470.00 19470 NQ Near the Call Wall (Max)
3rd Long Target 471.70 19530 NQ Possible zone for sales or taking profits
🔴 Short Targets (Sell Setups)
Target Price Level Equivalent NQ Level Notes
1st Short Target 460.00 19050 NQ Reaction expected from Call Wall (1)
2nd Short Target 454.00 18800 NQ Coincides with Call/Put Wall (5)
3rd Short Target 450.00 18600 NQ Strong area: Put/Call Wall (3)
4th Short Target 445.00 18430 NQ Possible buy zone at Put Wall (2)
🧠 Key Zones to Watch
🔴 Sell Zone:
471.70 — Very strong resistance. Confluence of volume trigger, call wall, and overextension. Potential for reversal.
🟢 Buy Zone:
445.00 — Strong demand. Put Wall and previous support levels suggest potential bounce.
⚖️ Middle Ground (Chop Zone):
455–460 — This is the consolidation/balance area where decisions are likely made. Be cautious here unless momentum confirms.
🧩 Technical Highlights
Volume Trigger: Around 464–465, indicating potential breakout momentum.
Gamma Levels: Neutral to bearish bias below 463 (Zero Gamma).
Call/Put Walls: Acting as magnets or rejection zones.
RB Structure: "RB Head" and "RB Bottom" suggest internal resistance/support pivots.
📈 Possible Scenarios
Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 465 with volume, expect a move toward 470–471.70.
Rejection at Resistance: Failure at 467–470 area could initiate short setups back to 460 or lower.
Flush and Rebound: Drop toward 445 zone may attract buyers for a long opportunity back to mid-range (455–460).
Bullish Setup for QQQ: Price Targets and Key Levels for Next Wee
- Key Insights: QQQ exhibits strong bullish momentum, supported by technical
setups, including cup-and-handle formations and golden crosses. Buyer
sentiment remains robust, driven by tariff pauses on tech and chip stocks
and a broader recovery in indices. Sustaining above key support at 444 will
be critical for maintaining upward momentum, while geopolitical volatility
should be monitored closely.
- Price Targets:
- Next Week Targets: T1 = 465, T2 = 478
- Stop Levels: S1 = 436, S2 = 421
- Recent Performance: QQQ has rallied 7.5% in its latest bullish phase and is
currently trading at 446.18, outperforming major indices like SPY and ES.
Short-term activity reveals consistent gains above last week’s and
yesterday’s closing prices, underscoring the strength of buyer sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Technical indicators such as stochastic oscillators, golden
crosses, and Fibonacci levels point toward sustained upside potential.
However, experts urge caution due to heightened geopolitical risks and
inflation concerns. Price action around the 444 support level will validate
the reliability of QQQ's bullish case.
- News Impact: Positive catalysts include a tariff pause on tech and
semiconductor stocks, which benefits QQQ’s key holdings in the technology
sector. Additionally, broad market recovery and renewed optimism have
amplified fund flows into the NASDAQ 100. However, potential downside risks
stem from trade tensions and inflationary pressures, making QQQ vulnerable
to sudden volatility despite its promising technical structure.
Foundation of Technical Trading: What Makes a Chart Tradable?The Foundation of Technical Trading
There is an abundance of information on price charts, technical methods, indicators, and various tools. However, the required first step is to understand basic market structure. Without this foundational knowledge, technical applications risk becoming inconsistent and disconnected from broader market behavior.
It is also important to question whether technical charts and tools are effective at all. What makes the market responsive to a trendline, a pattern, or an indicator? And why, at other times, do these tools seem entirely irrelevant? Is the market random? If certain events are predictable, under what conditions can such occurrences be expected?
Experiment: Random Charts
Here is an illustration of four charts; two showing real price data and two randomly generated. While some visual distortion gives away subtle differences, there are more refined methods to construct this experiment that makes telling the difference between real and random almost impossible.
All these charts show viable patterns and possible applications. When presented with these, even experienced people tend to construct narratives, whether or not structure is present. This raises a fundamental question; how can one distinguish real occurrences from coincidental formations on a chart? In case all movements are considered random, then this should indicate that applied methods perform no better than coincidence?
Bias and Distortion
It’s also important to comprehend the influence our perception. As humans we are wired to find patterns, even in random data, which can lead to various cognitive biases that distort our interpretation. For example, confirmation bias may lead us to focus only on evidence that supports our expectations, while apophenia causes us to see patterns where none exist. Similarly, hindsight bias can trick us into believing past patterns were obvious, which can develop overconfidence in future decisions. Awareness of these biases allows us to approach technical tools and charts with greater objectivity, with more focus on probabilistic methods and calculated risks.
Experiment: Random Levels
Perform the following experiment; open a chart and hide the price data. Then draw a few horizontal lines at random levels.
Then reveal the price again. You’ll notice that price can touch or reverse near these lines, as if they were relevant levels.
The same thing can happen with various indicators and tools. This experiment shows how easy it is to find confluence by chance. It also raises an important question, is your equipment and approach to the markets more reliable than random?
Market Disorder
Financial markets consist of various participants including banks, funds, traders and algorithmic systems. These participants operate with different objectives and across multiple timeframes resulting in a wide range of interpretations of market behavior. Trades are executed for various reasons such as speculation, hedging, rebalancing, liquidation or automation; directional intent could be unclear. For instance, the prior may serve to offset exposure, and portfolio rebalancing could require the execution of large orders without directional intent.
Technical and chart-based trading likely makes up a minor segment of the overall market; even within this subset, there is considerable variation in perception and interpretation. There could be differences in timeframe, reference points, pattern relevance and responses to similar information. The market is broader, more complex and less definitive than it appears. The point is that markets contain a high degree of structural disorder, which means most assumptions should be questioned and perceived as estimative.
The effect of buying and selling pressure on multiple timeframes sets the foundation for oscillation in price movements, rather than linear and monotonic movements. This pattern of rising and falling in a series of waves sets the points for where the current structure transitions between balance and imbalance. An overall equilibrium between buying and selling pressure results in consolidative price movement, whereas dominance leads to trending or progressive movement.
Volatility Distribution
To answer the main question: What differentiates real market behavior and charts from random data, and ultimately makes it tradable, is the distribution of volatility. This forms the basis for the phenomenon of volatility clustering, where periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and low volatility follows low volatility. It is rare for the market to shift into a volatile state and then immediately revert to inactivity without some degree of persistence. Research supports the presence of this volatility persistence, though with the important caveat that it does not imply directional intent.
Volatility Cycles
These phases tend to occur in alternation, known as volatility cycles, which set the foundation for tradable price structures. This sequence consists of a contractive phase, marked by compression in price movements, followed by an expansive phase, characterized by increased volatility and directional movement. The alternation reflects shifts in underlying buying and selling pressure. This behavior offers a practical approach to interpret market behavior. A more detailed explanation of the concept could be explored in a future post.
Conclusion
While the idea of profitability through technical trading is often questioned, it remains a viable approach when based on sound principles. The edges available to the average trader are smaller and less frequent than commonly presumed. The concepts of volatility and the ability to locate areas of imbalance forms the basis for identifying conditions where market behavior becomes less random and more structured. This sets the foundation for developing technical edges.
The content in this post is adapted from the book The Art of Technical Trading for educational purposes.
QQQ Crashes to Demand Zone! Market on Edge After Tariff Shock🔻 Market Context
The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) took a severe hit after Trump’s proposed tariffs rattled the broader market. Investors fled risk-on assets, dragging tech-heavy indexes into a sharp sell-off. This capitulation-type flush aligns with the "risk-off" tone the options market has hinted at for days.
Technical Analysis (1H + SMC)
QQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 support—this level acted as a major BOS zone, and we’re now testing it again from above.
The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475–$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet.
A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440–$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405–$400 region.
GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H)
* Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor.
* GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440–443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce.
* The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels.
From a flow standpoint:
* IVR: 101.8 – Options are relatively expensive.
* IVx Avg: 56.7% – Increasing volatility confirms fear.
* PUT$: 23.5% dominance – Bearish pressure is heavy.
* GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Scenario
* Price holds $420 and forms a higher low.
* Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 → $475 zone.
* Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume.
Bearish Scenario
* Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger.
* Price could cascade to $405–$400 near previous fair value gaps.
* Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile.
Final Thoughts
This is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Don’t fight the trend—watch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital.
QQQ is not yet safe for investment—wait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
QQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 040525Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 423/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
QQQ: Tariff ReactionNASDAQ:QQQ As China strikes back with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10, the global trade landscape could see some serious turbulence. This follows Trump's tariff moves, and the market's already feeling it: QQQ’s daily chart shows capitulation volume on the table, suggesting a potential bounce— IF tariffs ease.
But until these trade tensions subside, it's likely to be a rocky ride. Tariffs push prices up, inflation lingers, and the Fed finds itself boxed in. The outcome? A market crash, recession, and stagflation—yet, there's still hope for a bounce, depending on how these factors play out.
Manage the levels with us at ChartsCoach.
ONLY BULLISH short term wave count QQQPanic is now clear the question is todays drop a wave C in a zig zag or is it wave 3 of 3 Not sure I am taking long positions at 420 area if we break 416 then wave stucture should drop to 398/+or - 3.1for wave 3 of 3 to end . The 1987 decline took 55 days that drop was a full 38.2 % drop oct 19th that date would be april 15
Using Fibonacci/Measured Moves To Understand Price TargetThis video is really an answer to a question from a subscriber.
Can the SPY/QQQ move downward to touch COVID levels (pre-COVID High or COVID Low).
The answer is YES, it could move down far enough to touch the pre-COVID highs or COVID lows, but that would represent a very big BREAKDOWN of Fibonacci/ElliotWave price structure.
In other words, a breakdown of that magnitude would mean the markets have moved into a decidedly BEARISH trend and have broken the opportunity to potentially move substantially higher in 2025-2026 and beyond (at least for a while).
Price structure if very important to understand.
Measured moves happen all the time. They are part of Fibonacci Price Theory, Elliot Wave, and many of my proprietary price patterns.
Think of Measured Moves like waves on a beach. There are bigger waves, middle waves, smaller waves, and minute waves. They are all waves. But their size, magnitude, strength vary.
That is kind of what we are trying to measure using Fibonacci and Measured Move structures.
Watch this video. Tell me if you can see how these Measured Moves work and how to apply Fibonacci structure to them.
This is really the BASICS of price structure.
Get Some.
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