Time to short (:It's been too long, go short, no pun intended.
Rates aren't coming down until something blows up & that may already be happening.
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ has recently broken below its upwardAfter going on a nice rally QQQ is starting to show signs weakness in its price action and RSI.
QQQ price action for the first time in a while breaks below its upward trend and holds below for two straight trading days
RSI 20 has also been forming a bearish divergance pattern with it trending down while price has been climbing over the past month.
Key signs to watchout for:
RSI breaking below 50
Price action breaking below its flat support line.
It is very possible that QQQ will simply do a pull back through time where trades flat for a month or two months before starting to rally again. Due to its more tech heavier lean, a correction and sell off in price is very likely as well.
Tighten your stop losses to protect downside risk
QQQ top wave count wave C down has ended in wave B LOW QQQ chart posted so far we have dropped in a 3 wave decline and to .667 pullback NOT what I like to see but still it is 3 waves down This should market wave B down within the 5th wave diagonal . This should lead to a rather weak rally to just edge out the high at 449.48 and could see 451/452 still But I will not be long calls in QQQ for now . But I have moved into 40% net long spy calls this morning at 10 am up from the 10 % . Best of trades WAVETIMER watch for april 8th TURN
QQQ looks like ready for next ATH moveMacrodata good, last week we saw consolidation and now ready for go up if hold 445-446 zone
QQQ SHORT TRENDNASDAQ:QQQ , qqq looks quite bearish for next 2-6 months and im focusing on correction, rsi nearly overbought and fibonnaci zone
QQQ Is it topping before a crash or setting up a correction?QQQ is on a weekly chart. Only the pundits, soothsayers and headline readership volume seekers
know for sure. Will not the upcoming elections prop things up? Buy in March April and May
and then go away? Is this spring coming up roses or instead dandelions?
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for GDP NASDAQ:QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for GDP
Tomorrow’s Trading range Is just under ATH’s. We also have GDP in premarket, PCE on Friday as well as Jerome Powell speaking on the last day of the quarter.
Should be an interesting last two days of the quarter. Full walkthrough on tonight’s video but this at least gives you the levels to look for.
Don’t forget to take profits when you’re up!!
$QQQ Day Trade breakdown As a day trader one of our best trigger levels come from the previous day low/closing price. Well this happened to be both here on QQQ and we have a steep correction into $443 level which was the previous day low/close. We see the bear flag form back into resistance and we look to take it short here for a move further to the downside.
QQQ The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 446.21 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 452.09
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 435.52
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ (Nasdaq etf) - Potential Bearish Momentum - WeeklyQQQ (nasdaq etf) has been uptrending for over a year (2023 to 2024).
However, signs of a potential pullback in the long-term charts are showing with the price and rsi oscillator.
In the long-term, a potential pullback may occur in the price, and the price could fall down to $426, $419, $400, $394 support levels.
Long-term resistance levels are: $460, $470, $480, $500.
QQQ etf volatility and trend can be affected by FOMC Interest Rates, Corporate Earnings, Consumer Sentiment, and Global Event Catalysts.
A major bearish catalyst or a series of bearish events would be needed to reverse the price back down.
Note: Without bearish events, the price of QQQ could continue rallying to new all-time highs.
🌟📉 Short Trading Setup on QQQ Chart—ICT Analysis! 📊💼Let's dive into an intriguing trading opportunity on the QQQ chart with a short setup based on ICT analysis. Get ready for valuable insights and potential trading strategies. 🚀📉
📉 Downtrend Formation:
Upon careful examination, it becomes evident that QQQ has formed a lower high and lower low, signaling the establishment of a downtrend in the H1 or lower timeframe. This bearish pattern suggests a potential opportunity for short trades. 📉🔻
💡🔍 ICT M15 Short Setup:
Delving deeper into the chart, it becomes quite apparent that a compelling ICT M15 short setup is in play. The price action and key indicators align, indicating a favorable scenario for short trades. This setup presents an opportunity to capitalize on the downward movement and potential profit. 💡📉📊
🎯 Target and Stop Loss:
For this short trading plan, we have set a target at $443, representing the level we anticipate QQQ to reach during the downtrend. To manage risk effectively, we recommend setting the stop loss at $448. This ensures a risk and reward ratio of either 1 to 1 or 1 to 1.5, depending on your preferred approach. 🎯⛔💼
Embrace this short trading setup on the QQQ chart, guided by ICT analysis. Remember, trading carries risks, so always exercise caution and diligence. Make informed decisions based on your risk appetite and trading strategy. Let's maximize the potential and aim for profitable trades! 💪💼💹
#QQQ #ICTAnalysis #ShortTradingSetup #TargetandStopLoss #RiskRewardRatio 📉📊💱
QQQ TO RUN TOWARDS 460If qqq can stay above 444 on the daily timeframe, I can see us making a run towards 460 anytime before April 05 2024, the best entry for a trade will be above the previous high at 448.
QQQ Bearish Scenario - 422 Short Term TargetThe price action momentum over the last month or so in the QQQ has begun to slow down.
Price within the main black bull channel seems to have shifted into a more shallow (blue) bull channel, which is a sign of slowing momentum.
This shift into the blue channel gives better chances that the bears could take control if the black channel is lost by the bulls.
A bearish scenario i will be watching is if they break below the 435 area, price will likely be breaking down from both the main black bull channel, and the blue tapering channel.
With this setup, overall i would like to see some sort of right shoulder to form to build liquidity to take it lower.
The next (blue tapering) lower channel line should be around 431, and another pause and right shoulder there would be good to see.
If they can break the 2nd tapering channel line at 431, they should have room to about 422 area, to test the recent gap and pivot, which was the day of NVDA's earnings.
QQQ Longer Term ReviewGoing over the QQQ after FOMC seeing what the chart is telling us. looking for clues and leans. working on multiple plans in case we go down, sideways, or up. what to look for and how to trade to make $$$.
COULD QQQ TRADE SIDEWAYS FOR 12 MONTHS?On the 3 day chart, I am looking at the possibility of QQQ retesting the 50 / 200 MA as support before continuing this rally up to new ATHs.
This pullback would be like 2011 pt. 2
QQQ Bullish above 439QQQ touched support today and the dip got bought, if we can get back above 439 this week, we should 446-448, if we go above that zone then QQQ can start trending again towards the top of the green channel
QQQ expecting down into Thurs/FriI've got a scenario for the week that suggests a high today or tomorrow with at least a couple days down and a v-bottom.
This is based on my dowsing work that is still a learning process, but has some merit. I am working to get it as close to reliable as I possibly can. It's fun & helpful to post ideas here on TV to see what works or doesn't. Especially after longer term periods.
I expect this action could be initiated after Fed speak tomorrow. We'll see.
QQQ bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern confirmedNASDAQ:QQQ has shaped Head-and-Shoulders formation on the daily chart. Daily downtrend confirmed, weekly consolidation has started.
Please note that broad SP500 market is still technically in an uptrend, meaning that buyers are still strong. So if you plan entering SHORT on QQQ I would wait for a pullback to increase risk-reward. An example of possible trade is shown on the chart. Of course, it is important to monitor how things develop and make corrections if needed.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
QQQ Falling Out of Channel on Quad Witching DayQQQ is down over 1% today and falling out of the channel it's been in since October. It's quad witching today so could not be a coincidence that the market might be changing phases. An obvious spot for support would be the 50 EMA down between $425-$427.
Unlocking the Secrets of Profitable TradingA Journey Beyond Technical Analysis
After more than 20 years of successfully trading various assets, from stocks to futures and options, I can confidently assert that the major distinction between a professional trader (profitable and consistent) and an amateur (unprofitable and inconsistent) is that the former does not rely blindly on technical analysis.
In fact, for me as well as many other traders that I know, the turning point came when we realized the need to go beyond the tools provided by technical analysis.
I'm not saying that technical analysis isn't useful, because in fact it is, as it provides us with some useful tools. What I want to make clear is that it covers only a small percentage of the distance that must be covered to become a successful trader.
So, have you ever wondered how effective technical analysis is at predicting the future trajectory of a financial asset?
I'd bet your answer depends on your experience and the time you've been using it, because many traders sooner or later find themselves asking this question when they observe that sometimes the projections derived from technical analysis are accurate and sometimes they are not.
It is precisely in this feature of inconsistency where the greatest problem of technical analysis lies as a predictive tool. Its successes and failures are unpredictable, which hinders its reliability and usefulness for investors and creates a psychological burden akin to a ticking time bomb ready to explode at any moment.
In simple terms, a trader who relies solely on technical analysis as his primary approach to the markets is risking his hard-earned money by depending on a tool that only works occasionally.
In a succinct manner, in order to keep this post from becoming too lengthy, I'll briefly mention some of the main limitations of technical analysis as a predictive tool:
It's based on past data, which causes it to ignore key events such as political or economic events that have not yet occurred.
It's susceptible to a high degree of subjectivity because it relies on perception (what you see on the chart), which can be very different from what another trader sees.
It disregards fundamentals.
It doesn't take into account the changing psychology of the market.
At this point, a question arises: if technical analysis is unreliable, then is there a better way to handle uncertainty and anticipate future movements of a financial asset more accurately? Fortunately, the answer is yes. I want to draw your attention to the way I constructed the previous question, specifically when I mentioned 'handling uncertainty', because accepting and embracing the fact that the market is better modeled by randomness would be a big step that a trader can and should take on their path towards profitability.
Here I want to pause, because in short I will talk about mathematics and statistics, but don't worry, I won't get into the intricacies of technical specifics. Instead, my aim is to explain a vast technical arsenal of key concepts in an intuitive and straightforward manner without using mathematical jargon, and hopefully provide you with the basic understanding that will allow you to perceive the market in a different way, in fact, in a more realistic and operable one.
Let's return to uncertainty, because this is where the key lies. Firstly, let me underscore a fact: the market is governed by unpredictability, in the sense that the future value of any stock asset is influenced by a multitude of factors and may exhibit ambivalent fluctuations. As a result, it's impossible to anticipate such future value with undisputed precision.
The stochastic nature of the future value of our favorite asset, which we strive so hard to predict today, is so pronounced that it impacts not only technical analysis but also more sophisticated tools, such as statistical time series analysis and artificial intelligence. Despite our best efforts, these methods often fall short, providing accurate forecasts only in certain cases, rather than universally reliable predictions across the board.
Accepting that we may be correct in some cases and incorrect in others is precisely where we can embrace uncertainty effectively. Recognizing that my analysis and decisions may be both right and wrong before entering the market is a significant step towards understanding the probabilistic nature of the market and alleviating the psychological pressure derived from the need to always be right.
Thus, embracing the undeniable probabilistic nature of the market allows me to perceive things differently. It frees me from the unrealistic need to always be right and introduces a fundamental concept: the notion of assigning a probability of success to each trade, rather than focusing solely on being right or wrong.
Here, the approach undergoes a radical shift. Instead of seeking that infallible technical indicator or that machine learning model that will predict tomorrow's price, I redirect my focus towards creating a trading system that tilts the probabilities in my favor. The goal is to ensure that the sum of favorable events exceeds the sum of unfavorable events.
And well, here's the good news you deserve if you've made it this far in the reading: you do not need to be a math wizard to be profitable, because any trading system (solid foundations) is a winning system, if it focuses not on its ability to correctly anticipate the future, but rather on creating an advantage from a probabilistic standpoint, whether in other contexts it tends to produce negative results.
Yes, just as you're reading it, even a simple system, let's say a crossover of two moving averages, is susceptible to being a winning system if we have the ability to bias the probabilities in our favor with its use.
The immediate question that arises is how to bias the probabilities in my favor. Fortunately, the answer is less complicated than it might initially seem. While there is a vast mathematical and statistical framework supporting everything, involving advanced techniques such as stochastic calculus, random functions, quadratic forms of Brownian motion, statistical inference, and so on, thankfully in practice, we don't need to delve into all of that.
On the contrary, a very basic understanding of concepts such as random walks, the normal distribution of returns, expected value, and variance is sufficient. These concepts all converge to provide nothing less than an average that indicates the positive contribution (or negative, in case of making mistakes) of each of our trades, considering the historically calculated probability of success.
In other words, a numerical representation of the potential positive or negative expected contribution of your next trade before you execute it. This removes uncertainty from the decision-making process and, ultimately, provides you with an invaluable tool for making informed decisions. On top of that, it becomes a powerful ally when dealing with the anxiety and emotional burden of trading, by providing a quantifiable measure that can be known before any action.
There is indeed an abundance of books, blogs, and videos available on the use of probabilities (expected value) in trading. While some sources provide valuable insights, unfortunately many lack a deep understanding of the mathematics behind it, resulting in explanations that are not as comprehensive as desired. However, these resources can still serve as a good starting point for traders looking to grasp the concept.
I plan to publish several follow-up parts to this post, where I'll delve into more specific details to offer actionable guidance on incorporating these concepts. However, time is a scarce asset for me, not because I spend long hours in front of the screen, but because I limit my work engagement as practice for maintaining happiness. Therefore, I must find the time to produce the continuation of this publication, but I will find it, because at this stage in my journey as a successful retail trader, I'd like to share knowledge for the benefit of the trading community.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Options ahead of the FOMC decisionAfter the 2023 Price target was reached for QQQ:
Now Powell's likely to take a hawkish stance tomorrow, given the CPI, PPI, and GDP data.
Interest rate cuts probably won't happen before June, in my opinion, potentially causing both indices and the crypto market to decline.
I would consider purchasing the 416usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.55.
My end of the year Price Target for QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, is $470.
