QQQ: What lies ahead for the Tech SectorWhat does the QQQ graph tell us about the current situation?
The QQQ is not trending upward within the channel that began in 2023 and is currently in a correction phase. The recent decline has weakened the previous momentum, making a significant short-term upward price movement less likely.
Does this correction damage the overall long-term upward trend that started in 2009?
There is no indication that the long-term upward trend has ended. As long as QQQ holds within the key support area of 400 to 415, the broader bullish trend remains intact.
At what level is the technology sector likely to start rebounding?
The critical area to watch is 450 to 455. If this level holds, the market has a chance to stabilize and perform better in the second half of the year.
However, if the 450 level fails to provide support, the worst-case scenario for 2025 suggests that the technology sector may begin its rebound near 415. In this case, due to weaker momentum, the potential upside would likely be limited, with a peak expectation around 540.
QQQ trade ideas
$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
30min 35EMA IS the level to watch. Looks like QQQ is trying to find support there.
I did just sell 482/487 bear call spreads - that is a 5 dollar wide spread.
Bear gap at the top of the trading range. If you’re thinking of that spread let me suggest 1.75 as the first entry - then 2.25 if we keep moving up.
Qqq
So ..
Keep things simple.. Qqq has support at 468-470.. below that support at 450 comes...
Qqq 1st resistance is at 477, over 477 and 483 comes. ..
The technicals say we should bounce up to 483-485 if Jolts come in decent today..
The bad news is Until post Opex we are in a Bearish seasonality..
The structure on one of the biggest sectors XLC (Meta,NFLX) tells me that the selling isn't done and we could see
450 by end of April..
Overall Qqq Top was in like posted back in Dec..
Here's Qqq weekly chart log scale..
Notice it only broke this once in 16yrs and that was because of the stimulus liquidity..
Now zoom in here and notice the 2 red
arrows
the first Arrow was back in July when QQQ tagged that weekly resistance, price corrected but they bought it up for the sake of distribution.. the evidence of that distribution is on your RSI weekly chart. Look at your RSI and notice How it's has diverged as price went higher also notice How NVDA and MSFT pretty much traded sideways since last July. Lastly JPM pretty much said that they liquidated most of their tech longs last summer.
Notice the blue line ? That was our uptrend from 2022 lows, that uptrend combined with the weekly channel has made a rising wedge. We broke that rising wedge last week but I think in April we will rally back up to retest it around 510-515 before a sell in May event that takes us to the bottom of this channel Around 400..
The bigger picture is this, the channel of 16yrs support has never been broken so if you do get that 400 price this summer it will likely be a buying event like what happened at 2022 lows.
I don't think Qqq makes a new high until 400 is tested .
But to focus on today's trade, wait until Jolts numbers are released, if we push over 477 then they will melt this back up to 483.. if we flush then don't short this until you see 467 cause it could be a trap.. below 468 and you short this to 462 then 450.. The WEEKLY 50 SMA is at 485 so it will take CPI to get over that
Had to post this for my friends since X is down 😂 .. I'll update here
QQQ long term trend is down with short-term relief rallyI am guessing a bit more downside before we see a relief rally. The AI bubble is starting to unwind, and that falling knife is sharp. I am patiently waiting for some version of a short-term bottom. You can see in the chart that price is has several key support lines within near reach. I would expect testing and hopefully finding some support in the coming days. If it is like the COVID bubble unwind, then we could see a strong reverse rally out of this range. However, I think it is pretty clear QQQ is in correction with a convincing loss of the 200 day SMA.
NASDAQ: Correction or Crash?!If this Monthly Chart for March holds then the NASDAQ:QQQ is COOKED!
Next Level: $450
Crash level: $370-$400 🥶
- Breaking out of WCB Trend
- Volume is WAY less than 202 Market Crash (Can get worse)
- Breaking out of Bullish Channel
- Topping tail wicks
Not financial advice
Get Out Your Shovels, It's Time To Load UpHappy market selloff everyone! It's about time we got some action.
It's been interesting to see which sectors are selling off, and surprising perhaps nobody, it's mostly high-priced SaaS, consumer finance / gambling names, and meme stocks.
Of note - private equity investment managers, which have presumably seen much higher-than-average financial stress as a result of the tariffs:
- Private Equity (ARES, TPG, KKR, APO, BN, BX)
- Airlines (ALK, DAL, UAL, GEV, AAL)
- SaaS (PLTR, S, NET, TTD)
- Meme / Retail (TSLA, MSTR)
- Sportsbooks / Brokers (FLUT, IBKR, HOOD, DKNG)
- B2C Network Platforms (SPOT, RBLX, GRAB)
- Consumer Credit (SYF, DFS, AFRM, SNV, COF, ALLY)
- Socials (PINS, RDDT)
- Big Banks (GS, MS, JPM, C, TFC)
Anyway, given that the market is now notably oversold by a few common readings, including the oscillator above and CNN's Fear & Greed index, we think it's time to begin scooping up shares in the broader indices, and especially in oversold stocks you may like, including GRAB, SOFI, RDDT, and TTD.
The market is still expensive, but this selloff reeks of a 'blip', and not a longer-term fundamental change in market momentum, positioning, and sentiment. To see that, we'd expect to see a crack in support levels around QQQ $420.
Best of luck out there!
The Nasdaq-100 Since The Crash StartedHere's a line chart of the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ since the recent plunge started. It has been relentless selling. While I could tell you all about the 10% correction and all that other jazz, I just want to share this line chart that is essentially going straight down.
I think there are essentially three ways to play this:
1. Do you wait for one capitulation event and then dive in? If so, when does that begin? Start your research process.
2. Does one place a pair trade of sorts for both crazy downside insurance BUT also a quick upside pop. There has not been a rally at all off this crash and as they often observe, the biggest bounces happen after the worst drops.
3. Keep playing the downward trend until otherwise noted. My only concern here is that I keep asking myself: have I missed the down move?
I am watching closely and am wondering when or if a rebound arrives and how to play it. If you have any trade ideas in mind based on this plunge, please comment them below!
Nasdaq short-term long: Bounce off Trendline, RSI DivergenceIn summary, I think that there is a good odds that Nasdaq will rebound in the short-term because it has bounced off a 2-year trendline and RSI has diverged with price. Using QQQ to gauge volume, I can also see that there is a healthy volume to support a reversal. However, take note that as of now, I will still consider this to be a corrective wave up and not a major trend reversal to the upside. Meaning, the major trend is still down.
QQQ at a Critical Level! Key Trade Setups for This Week 🚀Market Structure & Price Action
* QQQ has bounced from a key reversal zone, signaling early bullish strength.
* The price recently broke a descending trendline, suggesting a potential short-term trend reversal.
* Resistance at $513.29 aligns with previous rejection levels, making it a key target.
* A break above $513 could open the path toward $530-$535 resistance.
Support & Resistance Levels
* Immediate Resistance: $491.81 (current rejection point)
* Major Resistance Zone: $510 - $513 (historical resistance)
* Support Levels: $486, $480 (highest negative GEX / put support)
* Breakout Target: $530, $535 (GEX Call Walls)
GEX & Options Flow Insights
* IV Rank: 49, suggesting moderate implied volatility.
* Options Flow:
* Calls: 12.13% at $510 (2nd Call Wall)
* Puts: -78.42% at $485 (2nd Put Wall)
* High Volatility Level (HVL): $513, indicating a crucial pivot level.
Indicators Overview
* MACD: Showing signs of bullish momentum with a potential crossover.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold and turning up, suggesting a rebound is in play.
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Setup (Breakout Play)
* Entry: Above $492
* Target 1: $510
* Target 2: $530
* Stop Loss: Below $486
* Confirmation: High volume breakout above $491.81
Bearish Setup (Rejection Play)
* Entry: Below $486
* Target 1: $480
* Target 2: $475
* Stop Loss: Above $492
Conclusion
QQQ is approaching a key decision zone. If buyers can push above $491.81, we could see a strong rally toward $510+. However, failure to break above this level could result in another rejection back to $480-$475.
📌 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Market Update - 3/9/2025We're quite oversold on all indexes, so at this point probably everyone is expecting some bounce next week. How strong it will be is uncertain, but the likelihood of it happening is quite high.
I've been ruthlessly cutting losses on all my trades to 1/3 of my historical average losses, and due to a nice big trade on NASDAQ:JVA , I actually made $33 this week, which I'm really happy about given the tough market environment we are in. Just goes to show how much you can improve your RR by cutting losses even shorter than normally.
I still see a lot of strength in car-related names, as well as in communications / electric component names. Didn't mention but industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) was the leading industry on Friday, so that's also kind of confirming. Some really nice setups for next week in NASDAQ:VEON , NASDAQ:REBN , NASDAQ:PONY , NYSE:FPH , NASDAQ:PRCH
QQQ Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 491.81 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 509.46
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ , Tradeable bull bounce is likely next week for us .I think we will have a period of strength next and probably see longs start to work .
Today the market found strong buying at the November lows after undercutting briefly .
Ask yourself , if you were bearish would you short here after three weekly bear closes , does the risk reward work here . The answer is no . The situation at least temporarily favors the longs .
The bulls see "opportunity" , things are oversold and they see this as a low risk area to buy their " cheapies " .
The bears on the other hand see this as a good area to take profits and they will probably try to short higher when they see potential weakness resuming and try their best to get a lower high .
I don't know what will happen but I do think those arguments are logical and expecting a tradable bounce next week for longs is a high probability .
* Suggest to be nimble and make sure to take some profits on those longs as it is given, don't expect excess of what the market is making clear for now . Bears will try again probably higher up to make their lower high , so securing at least some profits on near term longs quickly is important .