RIG/N trade ideas
Transoceans Timewindow.The stock is certainly in a longer downtrend. A Turnaround is to early to tell - Even though, it can be time to start looking at a longer term Long position in the stock. Looking at the timecycles "Low to Low" from 2004 - present, It seems to come in a cycle Low every 76 to 81 weekly bars or every 500 to 550 days. We might now be at week 77 from an earlier Low. The chart shows the different Low points.
The RSI indicator is presently seldom this extremely low at 7.5. Low RSI readings in December of 2008, June of 2010, December 2011 sparked impressive advances. Time will show if this instance comes in to play again with a low around x-mas time of 2014 or maybe aleady in place 2 days ago..
RIGLooks bullish only for a possible short-term bounce back to the support level around 25.......put in a doji candlestick on capitulation type volume......watch to see if it can have 2 up days in a row for any signs of the reversal back to 25 lvl.
RIG breaks below $20I looked to short RIG last week (28th November) but decided against it due to the shortened Thanksgiving trading week.
I am revisiting it today because I think the opportunity has probably passed - for now. Initially the set-up looked good with yesterday's bar being bearish on higher volume - which boded well for a sell position. But then I noticed the low of 2002 at $18.10 which isn't far from current price action.
2002 is quite some time ago so may not prove to be a strong support level. A quick, small profit could be on the table but for me it isn't worth the risk:reward - the "if in doubt then sit it out" motto applies here.
RIG gaps down on higher volumeRIG has been bearish since the 2008 high, so with the last bar gapping down on higher volume a near-term sell opportunity looks like a good play.
Price had been going mostly sideways, since the end of 2012, offering a strong support at around $38. When this was broken and retested (turning support into resistance) in August/September 2014 a new bear trend began to develop. This would've been very early to short this stock so a break of the more recent pivot low of $27.91 offered a firmer opportunity, for longer-term trend traders.
Trading the last bars gap down (on higher volume) offers a near-term sell opportunity - with the next level of support at around $18 -$19. However, I am not looking to enter any trades today due to the US holiday yesterday.
RIG forming a balance. We go LONG or SHORT IF we break it. RIG is a high yielder stock with deep value and performing some fundamental valuations from a quantitative perspective it is highly undervalued.
Car Ichan holds the stock and is performing changes. There has been some positive news but in general the market is afraid that low oil prices and dayrates will push earnings down.
Given that the stock has fallen a lot there may be an opportunity to look for longs even though going against the main trend should there be some positive information.
There is a balance forming and there may be a potential to go long if we break the balance on the upside or we will plummet further on the downside.
Good risk reward on both sides.
This is what a bear market looks like.RIG had it's first death cross in late 2008, and never recovered.
Bullish Triangles (1 within 1) Tough to read $RIG has habit of forming many triangles, in most cases, targets are not achieved based on 23 trades only 45% resulted positive and this may not be the case this time because its rare to see a triangle within triangle and rarely it fails but may take more time to fruit any positive result. Another important short time bullish signal failed as well. Look the bullish pennant that failed. On July 7th, we recommended short position after price broke decisively the ascending support trend from June's low to the HLs target now achieved and we recommend to wait at and around $41 area for a possible bounce upward. If you decide to take a position make your stop loss at recent swing low or May low.
Transocean moving higher38.50 support is still holding for Transocean. Crude oil high price related to recent geopolitical events will push the stock price higher. Inverse H&S pattern you can verify yourself on the daily chart is already out of the neckline and gives a good entry point at the current level (44.30). Exit point to be evaluated at a later stage.
RIG - GOING SIDEWAYSAs shown in the picture above RIG is acting technically and stays in the cross points of different trading barries. How ever point of least resistance points upwards considering if stock price remains between current long term support.
RIGThis thing is almost following the other stock I am watching, DO. So i was just wondering, should i be looking for what contracts these guys get from other major Oil companies such as XOM, CVX, COP, BP, ext,,.. as indicators for catalyst? Is Oil and Gas industry still in demand compared to electricity and other utilities going forward?
RIG has a Date with $35 and this is Why
Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells across the world. If we look at the chart, every single matrix using the Ichimoku Cloud tells me that the stock is headed lower. It is trading under the Ichimoku Cloud, it is under the 9 and 26 period moving average, and both the past and future look weak. Combine this fact with a trader who bought 12,000 plus May 37 Puts for $.70. I jumped on this trade for $.77 and almost hit Target #1 at $.90, lets break down this trade.
The Trade: I bought the RIG May 37 Puts for $.77
Risk: $77 per 1 lot
Targets: $.90, $1.10, $1.30 and $1.50
Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Short
Gamma: Long
Theta: Short
Vega: Long.
Transocean Inc RIG sitting on supportPerhaps RIG will hold here and gain traction for a move higher to its loosely correlated crude oil comparison.
A little chart background: Crude Oil had jumped far ahead of RIG last year and then late last year RIG jumped up and closed the gap between the two markets. Since then the two markets, RIG and Crude, have been waffling around.
I see a decent, rising, long term support zone for RIG shares and now that RIG is solidly in the middle of that zone and crude oil is making a decent rally off the lows set earlier this month, maybe RIG has a low-risk chance for a move higher from here.
Risk 3 average daily ranges and target a 3 average range rally. The probability is 75% or more, which is just my odds calculation from this kind of setup.
Cheers.
Tim 12:53PM EST, Wed Jan 22, 2014
Long Term RIG Investment IdeaI'm generally a longer term investor. I like to invest in sound companies with good cash-flow and balance sheets that I don't believe are going anywhere in the next 5 to 10 years. I wait for these companies to bottom then I wait for strength and signs of a trend reversal, then I look for a level where first support will likely be. I think the $44 dollar level will act as support for a while in RIG. Now that it is being added to the S&P-500, it will become more of a spotlight stock. Strength was confirmed on the gap up.
I like the looks of entering a long term long (think one year+) at the 46.8 level. This level is where the gap and 50% retracement from the September low to the October high meet. For targeting, I throw on a Fib Extension on the hypothetical bottoming buy point that I'm looking at, and I look for key levels on the way up. This is where retracement, extension, and price support/resistance levels come together.
While I may or may not sell at the levels. They provide good psychological levels for when your stock starts to pull back you can look at your chart and think, "Oh yeah, resistance. It makes sense for it to start going down here." In general, when I try to get cute and sell resistance to buy support later, I generally end up selling and miss the re-entry. So I normally just keep a smaller position and ride the ups and downs.
Ultimately I think this can hit $69 over the next year or so especially if activist Carl Icahn starts to throw his weight around. His cost basis, by the way is around $53.
So I like the technical levels, the risk:reward ratio, and the fundamental of both the company (DeepWater Horizon behind them, solid balance sheet, turning around) and the stock (S&P-500, Carl Icahn).
Building a RIG above sea level...We have confluence on this chart.
First there is a strong support that you can extend more to the past and will find important levels that worked and second we have the ratios for a butterfly.
Let's see how this works.
RIG (Monthly Chart)Looks bullish as it is putting in a Doji cndlstk. for Sept. on the monthly at the apex of the macro wedge...which could mean a b/o soon of the macro wedge if it can get above the downtrend line around 48 w/ vol.
