RIVN LIFT OFF!RIVN forming a close to perfect Head and Shoulders pattern that is quite large, there is also a secondary ascending triangle pattern which is a bullish pattern. Not much resistance all the way up, potential 35% gain.
RIVN trade ideas
$RIVN EV Stocks Winners & LosersWhile Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is currently seeing good Q2 performance after exceeding its estimated Q2 deliveries and signing an agreement with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to use its charging network. However, RIVN stock may be currently overvalued compared to other EV stocks following its 17% run after Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) started a rally in the EV market on its record Q2 deliveries. Given the tough competition RIVN is witnessing and its poor margins, investors could find RIVN stock a profitable short play.
RIVN Fundamentals
Exceeding Expectations
Although RIVN is currently seeing a decent Q2 in terms of deliveries, it still has a long way to go to prove that this will not be a one-time thing. RIVN produced almost 14,000 vehicles in Q2 putting it on track to achieve its 50,000 production target for the year. Also, RIVN delivered 12,460 vehicles, 10% more than the forecasted 11,300 deliveries, which may see it exceed its forecasted revenue for Q2.
Furthermore, RIVN may see increased deliveries in 2024 thanks to its agreement with Tesla to provide RIVN drivers access to Tesla’s charging network starting in 2024. The new agreement will increase RIVN’s coverage in the US which can increase demand since one of the biggest concerns for new EV customers is network coverage.
Market Overreaction
With Tesla’s record Q2 deliveries, a strong rally in the electric vehicle market started. While RIVN’s positive Q2 deliveries improved the stock’s outlook, Tesla’s record Q2 deliveries were a major reason for the 17% run. The combination of the two events created the perfect storm for RIVN stock, which may have led to the market overreacting resulting in RIVN stock’s recent run.
Compared to Polestar (NASDAQ: PSNY), which expects to produce 80,000 vehicles in 2023, 60% more than RIVN’s production target, Polestar also has a far better gross margin of 3% compared to -80% for RIVN, which means that RIVN is losing money on every vehicle it sells.
Furthermore, Polestar is closer to profitability than RIVN since it reported a net loss of $9 million only in Q1 2023 compared to RIVN’s $1.3 billion net loss. With all of that combined, it is hard not to see RIVN stock as overvalued compared to other EV stocks since RIVN’s current market cap of $18 billion is more than double that of Polestar. For this reason, investors could find better opportunities in other EV manufacturers than RIVN.
Another reason RIVN’s prospects may not be as bright as investors believe is the competition the company is facing from more established manufacturers in the electric truck market – namely General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F). With this in mind, Ford has already released an electric version of the Ford F-150, the best-selling truck in the US. In this way, it might be harder for RIVN to take hold of the market, since customers are more likely to choose more reliable and familiar names if they chose to transition to an electrical truck.
RIVN Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, RIVN’s assets increased 1.5% QoQ from $17.8 billion to $18.1 billion, while its cash and cash equivalents decreased 2.7% QoQ from $11.5 billion to $11.2 billion. RIVN’s total liabilities increased by 35% QoQ from $4 billion to $5.4 billion.
Revenue has increased 695% YoY from $95 million to $661 million. Operating costs decreased more than 16% from $1,077 million to $898 million, which contributed to the operating loss decrease of 15% YoY from $1.58 billion to $1.34 billion. In this way, RIVN reported a net loss of $1.3 billion – a 15% increase YoY.
Technical Analysis
RIVN stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $15.78 and $13.31. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is extremely overbought at 94.8 and the MACD is bullish. It is worth noting that the stock has broken its $15.78 resistance leaving behind a gap near $16.7 which may be filled in the future.
As for the fundamentals, RIVN stock just witnessed a catalyst in its Q2 deliveries exceeding analysts’ expectations. Despite this, RIVN could be overvalued at current levels given its fundamentals which could see the stock drop and test the $13 support level – filling the gap on the chart in the process – especially with the RSI extremely overbought at the moment.
RIVN Forecast
It is undeniable that RIVN is having a great quarter, with it exceeding its delivery target for Q2 and being on track to achieve its 2023 production target. That said, RIVN stock may be trading at a premium compared to other EV stocks since its market cap is more than double that of Polestar, which is currently outperforming RIVN in many areas. Furthermore, RIVN may find difficulty growing its market share since it faces tough competition from companies like Ford and General Motors. All of that makes RIVN stock overvalued and may be due to a correction soon – making it a potentially profitable short play.
RIVN RIVN has been playing well in this channel and with the last lower low spring up bounce at the base of the channel made a nice retest back up to its supply zone at this upper range of this channel. There is a little potential flag Im watching for in this range to retest if we can maintain above 15.79. I set the grey zones over under the channel as a melt up and accumulation dip buy zones if it hits those ranges.
This accumulation bounce if we maintain this mid level on the bounce can create a nice run up potential to the 19.68 range IF we get through the grey zone. This is a play out till July 31 to Aug 14.
I will be watching this chop zone and the ABC Correction before looking at the entry at 14.57
Enjoy the education this is all theories not to be taken as financial advice.
RIVIAN: Buy the next pull backRivian Automotive is on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, approaching the top of the 2 month Channel Up with the 1D technicals on solid bullish levels (RSI = 61.905, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 28.294). We will short on the first red 1D candle and target the 1D MA50, where we will open a buy again. The target will be R1 (TP = 17.75). The long term trend on RIVN remains bearish though, we want to see a steady close above the 1D MA200 to buy this for the long term. Noticeably the RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence since the start of the year.
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RIVN - Rising Trend Channel🔹Broken through the floor of a rising trend channel in the short term.
🔹inverse head and shoulders formation.
🔹POSITIVE signal with 15.02 resistance breakout, NEGATIVE with opposite formation reject.
🔹Between support 14 and resistance 15.6.
🔹Volume correlate with price up and down.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the short term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
June Gainers (RIVN, account up 4.83%)11th trade in June is NASDAQ:RIVN .
Holding period is 0 day.
Account is up 4.83%.
Total return in June is 15.04%.
RIVN - Bullish PitchforkThis is what I am seeing on RIVN, looks very bullish. this pull back was a buying opportunity imho.
RIVN ShortTrade idea for RIVN. If we break resistance and bounce take long to around $17.78 or if we reject at resistance I'd look to short to around $13 area.
Rivian Update: Count Invalidated?As y'all have been seeing, Rivian was playing really nice, hitting all the standard targets, and then all the sudden started to break down. Rather that was the news they were removed from the NASDAQ-100 or something else, it didn't follow through. The only bull count I see left is a leading diagonal into our wave (3), which is extremely unlikely. Diagonal's are so unreliable and for a wave 3 of any degree starting as a leading diagonal...I just don't think it is likely at all. Nonetheless, it is still possible, so until we invalidate it I'll leave it on the chart.
A breach of $13.62 officially invalidates this count and means it was most likely another wave 4 of the C wave it was in.
Whenever we get some more information that I can use I will track Rivian again. Until it starts to paint a more clear picture though I am not trading it. Rivian has a lot of stuff going for it right now. It also has a lot of bad going on with its revenue. Can they pull out of this and be successful?? Imagine how they would have fared had we not had COVID, and the supply crunch that destroyed a lot of businesses. The fact that Rivian has pulled through thus far and is still planning their expansion (plant) into Georgia, gives me great confidence in their future. I don't trade on hopes though, I trade on facts. So for now, I will avoid Rivian.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN: Bottomed out, Possible bullish bias toward 20 and 25.7Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has bottomed out which it signals a possible rebound toward 20 and 25.7 mark. If RIVN stock's price holds above 12.5, A possible bullish scenario is in the cards.
trading RIVN to $20 as an option sellerAccording to TipRanks, the average price target of RIVN is $21.14 with a high forecast of $40.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a 51.00% change from the last price of $14.00.
Rivian Update: Good Ole' Fed DayToday was pretty volatile to say the least. I think either the broader market sell off pulled Rivian down with it, changing the count, or I was one degree off. Both have equal possibilities, as I said before, wave v would've had to extend in order for that count to work. With this count it explains the overlap with wave 1, todays overall price action(choppiness), and it fits better with the bigger picture.
As I have said in the past, the bigger picture count is King. It dictates where price ultimately goes (aside from the unforeseen). That bigger picture count is saying we're headed for $16.46 minimum next. It needs to be soon though. The longer we chop the higher the risk rises of dropping further down.
Whatever happens make sure to protect your assets. Ther is a lot going on in the world today, let alone what is happening with each individual stock. Set your stops!!! Set yourself alarms so you know when price is getting close to your targets...good and bad ones.
I work again tomorrow so not sure how updates/responses will go. There is a good chance I will sell around half of my position soon on one of these next highs. I will update if I make any trades.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Promising Falling Wedge Pattern on $RIVNGreetings, Traders! Today, I'm excited to share a compelling technical analysis finding on the stock of Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ). A falling wedge pattern has been identified, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. Let's delve into the details!
📈 Ticker: NASDAQ:RIVN
📅 Timeframe: Daily Chart
📊 Pattern: Falling Wedge
📉 Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern:
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward. Typically formed during a downtrend, it indicates diminishing selling pressure and the potential for a reversal. This pattern suggests the possibility of an upward price movement.
🔍 Identifying the Falling Wedge on NASDAQ:RIVN :
Upon analyzing the daily chart of NASDAQ:RIVN , the following observations come to light:
1️⃣ Recent downtrend: NASDAQ:RIVN has experienced a decline in price over the past weeks.
2️⃣ Converging trendlines: The upper trendline connects the lower highs, while the lower trendline connects the lower lows.
3️⃣ Decreasing trading volume: As the falling wedge pattern forms, the trading volume has been declining, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure.
📈 Price Targets and Trading Strategy:
If the falling wedge pattern on NASDAQ:RIVN plays out as anticipated, a potential bullish breakout above the upper trendline might occur, triggering a reversal and potential price appreciation. Consider the following price targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: Resistance level near $100.00
2️⃣ Target 2: Psychological resistance near $120.00
🛡️ Risk Management:
Proper risk management is essential for successful trading. Implement the following risk management techniques:
1️⃣ Set a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to protect against unexpected price fluctuations.
2️⃣ Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy.
🔔 Conclusion:
Stay vigilant as Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) continues to develop this falling wedge pattern. The formation suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. However, remember that technical analysis is not foolproof, and market conditions can change rapidly. Consider integrating this analysis with other relevant factors before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Happy Trading! 📈💰
#tradingview #technicalanalysis #fallingwedge #bullishreversal #RIVN #stockanalysis #chartpatterns #tradingstrategies #investing #finance #marketanalysis
RIVN - Building nice multiple bottoms pattern
Test of 200 DMA seems to be in progress. What happens tomorrow could be vital.
If it can break above 16, can squeeze right up to 22 first and then 26.
Failure here again would send this to new low.
Alternate scenario is it keeps building inside the 200 and 60 DMA.
I took a start position today at 15. Will add or trim as PA reveals the trend.
Rivian Update: At Least OMH NeededRivian made quite a bit of progress today. According to the structure it carved out, and the fib levels it tagged, we should currently be in our wave v of 3. The standard fibs on the micro levels indicate price needs to extend out in wave v to meet the bigger picture target for wave 3 of (3). On the chart I have two boxes drawn. The smaller box is the target zone for wave v, and the bigger for wave 3. These two waves are one in the same in the fact that wave v is the end of wave 3, which is why I said wave v needs to extend.
We dropped for what I am calling at this point wave iv, although it could arguably be micro-wave (4), and tagged the 0.236 retracement fib. We could still drop and tag the 0.382 retracement but shouldn't go much lower than that if this drop isn't over already. I expect tomorrow to continue in the green, and depending on what price does, I may sell a portion of my position for a scalp. If I do so I will update y'all on here, as soon as I can.
I do work the next two days, so I don't know how much time I will have to watch the markets/update y'all. Just be careful and remember to use stops. So far, we are up about 10% or so on this trade. I would hate for someone to go into a loss because they didn't protect their assets. Right now, technically price could drop all the way to $12.41 and not invalidate the big picture. However, if this count is correct, I don't believe we should drop below $13.63 for any reason. Once we move past $15.68 strongly, we shouldn't fall back under that price for quite a while.
$15.75 is still the magic number to confirm wave (3) is under way. Until then, there is still a possibility we could fall towards that $12.41. Like I said, very very unlikely though.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVNHere's one worth watching, broken short term trend, bullish engulfing candle on twice relative volume. Needs a daily close and retest of 15.70 area for confirmation PT 1= $21. stock is relatively inexpensive. The way I'd play this is buy shares and sell weekly covered calls against it to protect downside, that way you capitalize no matter what direction it goes in.
Rivian Update: Awaiting ConformationNot going to spend much time on this. As stated earlier, there is a chance we have already bottomed in wave (2) and have started to move higher for (3). If price breaks $15.07 it is our first big clue we likely bottomed. Breaking $15.68 confirms it. From there I expect us to hit $16.46 at a minimum. Until we start to hit those targets though, we can still continue lower towards my target box.
I will post any and all trades I make. Good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN - Time to Back up the Truck?RIVN - as someone who lives on the west coast, I have seen these trucks up close, and I can honestly say they are breathtaking from every angle. But how does that influence price? It doesn't, lol... but if today's low holds, then RIVN is setting up for a potential push higher as outlined in the chart. Today's daily candle closure is a bullish harami combo - which can lower before going higher to confirm a bullish reversal. A daily close over this previous red candle will confirm this bullish intent. Will update this thesis once a path becomes more clear, but the beginnings are there. GLTA!
Rivian Update: OML Looks NeededIt looks to me like Rivian needs OML for this wave 2 to be complete. If you notice on the chart we are about to run into an area of high resistance though @ $14.04. The 0.618 fib extension & 0.5 fib retracement both are the EXACT same, this = very high resistance. I will be watching closely but there is a chance I will be buying a decent chunk at this juncture if it appears to struggle getting past it. MACD appears to say another low is coming up, however there is always a chance we go higher from here. With the rest of the market set to fall I doubt it though. Hopefully the market pulls Rivian down right past the $14.04 area and it's a non issue lol. 🤣Wishful thinking I know.
I also want to point out that the 1.0 for this a-b micro move down is right in between the 0.618 & 0.786 fib retracement lines. These are both very common end points for this type of move down. This, along with the MACD, helps to give me extra confidence price will ultimately visit my box before rising back up in our 3 of iii.
There is a turquoise 1 & 2 marked on the chart in the off chance we have bottomed already and start out green tomorrow. Past $15.07 and I think we've bottomed and are already heading up. In my last post i stated my trading plan. That has not changed, and I will post any and all trades I make tomorrow for Rivian on this post.
Good luck, and may God give fortune and have mercy on us all!!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
$RIVN - basing and forming IHSNASDAQ:RIVN #Rivian looks to be basing and forming a little IHS. Bullish if it can get above $16.63. Bearish if it breaks below $13. Bullish targets - $16.63, $19.50, $24. Downside risk $12, $8.50.
Not an investment advice.
Rivian Update: Is Tomorrow the DayRivian always seems to be so volatile. I think i'ts partially due to the fact it doesn't have as large of a group that trades it such as others like AAPL or TSLA. Either way, it appears we have our a-b wave complete for this move down and should make another trek lower to hopefully bottom before we jump in wave 3 of (3).
As many of you know I placed a limit order to buy 500 shares @ $14 and price dipped down to $14.02 and then proceeded to jump almost $1. I don't chase prices though, and the fact that it dropped back all the way to $14.50 just goes to show why. We might not fall back down to $14 as I am predicting, but i am willing to have patience and wait it out because that is what my count dictates. If you enter a trade based on your count, it's easier to exit according to your count, as you're not trading with emotion.
Tomorrow, based on structure, I will most likely start to layer into this trade around the #13.50-$14 area. Again, this depends on how price moves.
Above $15 and I have to start seriously considering we bottomed in 2 already, and an impulsive move above $15.68 confirms we're in 3 of (3).
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian's Chart Formation and Potential Trading OpportunitiesRivian, the EV manufacturer, has experienced a substantial decline in its share price since IPO. However, despite the challenging market conditions, there are indications of a potential reversal in the form of an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern. In this article, we will examine the current state of Rivian's stock and discuss the considerations for traders looking to capitalize on this pattern. It's important to note that caution and understanding of risk are essential when engaging in any trading activity. Let's dive into the details!
Chart Formation Analysis
Rivian's stock has endured significant downward pressure, plummeting from over $100 per share to its current value of $14.58. This decline has created an environment where long-term investors, who entered during the company's IPO days, might be seeking an opportunity to exit their positions. However, the emergence of an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern suggests the potential for a bullish reversal.
Confirmation and Entry Points
It's crucial to exercise patience and wait for confirmation before entering a trade based on the inverted head and shoulders pattern. The pattern is still in its early stages and needs validation to support a potential pivot. To confirm the pattern, traders should observe a daily close above approximately $15.50. This level serves as a critical threshold for confirming the pattern's validity.
Timing and Trade Execution
While the current market conditions may appear favorable for long-term investment, it's important to exercise caution and avoid premature entry. Waiting for confirmation before entering the trade is generally recommended when dealing with chart patterns. By practicing patience, traders can potentially capture a trade with a potential upside of over 25% or more. It's essential to remain aware of significant resistance levels at around $21 and $30, which may pose challenges to further price appreciation.
Risk Management and Stop Loss
Before entering any trade, it's crucial to understand and manage the associated risks effectively. Traders should set appropriate stop-loss orders to protect their investment capital. In the case of this trade, trimming positions around the $19.50-$19.75 range could be considered, depending on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
