RIVN: A potential Multibagger!Rivian may be getting ready for a quick move up! A potential multi-bagger at these level.
a) MACD signal lines are rising as the stock is making lows
b) RSI is showing divergence on the daily timeframe; monthly RSI is above the 14 period RSI moving average line
c) ADX on Daily is above 20; a cross of +ve DI over -ve will come with a swift move to reach the $27 levels
An investor can start accumulating now; trader can get it now with a SL at 9.92; conservative buyer should wait for a close above 11.84 levels.
RIVN trade ideas
Rivian is on its way to 9.13.NASDAQ:RIVN Rivian is going to fall down to $9.13 fibonacci level away from this rising wedge. My fibonacci is 100% accurate if placed correctly & at the right time. This will be the minimum spot it touches! It just formed a rising wedge, a bearish chart pattern, after filling a resistance gap that will push it downwards. It has lost any bullish momentum, even if it pops a little, it will make its way down there shortly.
RIVIAN 25 COMING.... ๐ Why Rivian's Stock Price Could Hit $25 ๐
Innovation and Product Appeal: Rivian has been making waves with its innovative electric vehicles like the R1T and R1S. The anticipation around new models and features, like the Gear Guard live cam and Tri-zone climate control, keeps the brand's allure strong among tech-savvy consumers and environmental enthusiasts. The unique selling points of these vehicles could drive demand, positively impacting stock value.
Strategic Partnerships and Market Positioning: The relationship with Amazon for electric delivery vehicles positions Rivian as a key player in not just the consumer EV market but also in commercial applications. This could lead to steady order flows and visibility, crucial for investor confidence.
Production Scale and Cost Reduction: Rivian's focus on scaling production, especially with the introduction of its in-house Enduro drive unit, aims to reduce costs significantly. As production ramps up, achieving economies of scale could lead to better margins, making the stock more attractive.
Investor Sentiment and Analyst Predictions: Despite variations, there's a notable optimism among analysts with a mix of hold and buy ratings, suggesting that many see potential for growth. The consensus price targets around $17.68 with highs up to $28 indicate that reaching $25 isn't far-fetched, especially if Rivian meets its production and innovation goals.
Market Expansion and Brand Loyalty: Initiatives like The Good Project, where Rivian vehicles are used for community service, not only enhance brand image but also foster loyalty. Exclusive offers for existing customers to upgrade to newer models could retain and grow the customer base, indirectly supporting stock price through sustained demand.
Technological Advancements: Rivian's development of proprietary technology, including its own chips and operating system, could insulate it from supply chain issues and offer competitive advantages. Innovation in software updates like dynamic headlamp leveling shows a commitment to continuous improvement, which could excite investors.
Market Sentiment Towards EVs: The broader trend towards electric vehicles continues to gain momentum. As more regions implement policies favoring EVs, companies like Rivian, which are pure-play EV manufacturers, stand to benefit from this shift, potentially driving up stock prices.
Financial Health and Investment: While Rivian has significant cash reserves, managing these effectively for growth without excessive dilution could reassure investors. The strategic use of funds for R&D and scaling could pave the way for profitability, a significant milestone for stock valuation.
Mean Reversion... RIVN oversold. TESLA, Chinese EVs Overbought.Setup:
Mean Reversion Trade (Long)
Key Criteria:
1. Price has tested a prior breakout/breakdown level, 15+ day pivot in price, or monthly/weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
2. Market Cap is above $10 billion.
3. Price swept highs, closed lower, with a gap between the open and previous candle close.
Specifics for NASDAQ:RIVN :
* Market Cap: $11.12 billion
* Relative Volume: 1.70
* Technical Level: $11.15 key weekly support level
* Technical Setup: Intraday price crash through known support, followed by a rejection, signaling a potential for a dead cat bounce, especially considering the current EV hype.
Trade Details for NASDAQ:RIVN :
* Position: Long
* Entry Price: $11.28
* Stop Loss: $10.98 (below daily pivot)
* Risk per share: $0.30
* Risk: 1% of account equity
* Order Type: Buy Stop Order
Targets:
1. Target 1: $11.85 (1.8R) โ Based on weekly and monthly FVG.
2. Target 2: $12.75 (4.75R) โ Based on weekly and monthly resistance levels.
Exit Techniques:
1. Scale out 33% at Target 1.
2. Scale out another 33% at Target 2.
3. Exit the remaining 34% based on a "Reason2Sell" approach:
* Price Reversal Patterns: Double tops, head and shoulders, falling wedges.
* Overbought Conditions: RSI exceeding 70.
* Negative Divergence: Price makes a new high, but indicators donโt confirm.
* Support Level Breakdown: Price breaking below significant support levels.
* Increased Volatility: Sudden surge in volatility or volume, indicating selling pressure.
* Volume Nodes: Observe price action around liquidity points.
Reasoning:
Rivian has been overshadowed by Tesla, Waymo, and Chinese EVs in recent news, but the current price drop offers an opportunity for a mean reversion trade. The stock has filled the gap created by the Volvo investment news, and yesterdayโs price action shows potential for a long entry after rejecting the $11.21 intraday support level. This could be an intraday breakout that transitions into a swing trade, aiming for a target range between $12 and $13. The tight spread provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for this setup.
Stop Loss Strategy:
* Adjust the stop loss after Target 1 is reached, scaling out accordingly.
Additional Notes:
* Set orders to automatically scale out shares as profit targets are met. If youโre holding the full position size after hitting targets, manage your risk accordingly.
* Feel free to reach out with any questions for further clarification or support.
Can RIVN hold support at 10.2 and bounce back?RIVN is clearly in a downward trend, but there's support around 10.2 that could trigger a short-term bounce. If the stock manages to hold above this level, it could rise toward 18 by year-end. However, if 10.2 fails, the stock may drop further into the 8.8โ9.2 support zone.
Time to buyFrom its all time lows to the recent short term highs @ $18 Rivian has retraced 50%.
A clear channel has started to form, currently at the bottom of this channel.
A daily golden cross has formed on the chart.
Share price is difficult to predict on a short term timeframe.
All the news has been positive recently with VW investing and collaboration with Rivian. With much more affordable vehicles coming out in the near future that look amazing, they will sell by the thousands, future looks bright for this fantastic company. Apparently customer satisfaction levels are higher than Porsche and BMW.
Ford has pulled the plug on a pure EV pickup, concentrating on hybrids. To my eye Teslaโs Cyber Truck looks terrible and is huge, ( check out James Mayโs review on YouTube )
Recent share price weakness looks like a good time to invest for the long term.
RIVN, a "Bottomfish" opportunity of a LIFETIME! MASSIVE UPSIDE! RIVN is amassing massive net buy volume this past few days / weeks. Net positive Volume has surged +64% from 28M to 46M -- conveying that buyers have started taking positions at the current price range.
RIVN is flashing a "bottomfish" opportunity of a lifetime -- seeding in early at calm waters before a massive ascend happens, which based on recent data is about to materialize soon.
Monthly data histogram is already a hinting shifting trend -- buyers are overtaking sellers for this month.
Pricewise, the shift is obvious now as price lines are oversurfacing descending ones based on monthly data. HUGE hint.
All of these technicals coincides with the company's last GREEN earning calls.
Spotted at 15.0
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
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FUNDAMENTAL / FINANCIAL NEWS:
Quarterly financials
MAR 2023
(USD) Mar 2023 Y/Y
Revenue 661M 595.79%
Net income -1.35B 15.32%
Diluted EPS -1.45 18.08%
Net profit margin -204.08% 87.83%
Operating income -1.43B 9.25%
Net change in cash -319M 78.03%
Cash on hand - -
Cost of revenue 1.2B 100.34%
RIVIAN giving highly accurate signals within this Channel Down.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) couldn't have been giving us more accurate signals since May (see charts below), as not only did we get a timely entry at the bottom (chart 1, May 17) but also sold at the very top (June 26 chart 2) of the Channel Down:
Right now we face a technical similarity with September 2023, exactly 1 year ago, where the price failed to utilize the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support and started a new long-term Bearish sequence.
However we do realize the potential long-term trend changing effect that a potential new cycle of interest rate cuts might have in two weeks, so again our trading plan will prepare for both scenarios with clear break-out signals and levels.
Obviously as long as the price remains within the 2-year Channel Down, the trend is bearish and the action will be 'sell on every high'. The Sell Signal on the September 2023 fractal was given when the 1D RSI hit the 60.00 level (red arrow, Sep 14 2023). Naturally we will wait for another such trigger to sell and Target 10.55 on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where last year's sell signal bottomed (October 30 2023).
If on the other hand, the price closes a 1W candle above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), we will buy that clear long-term bullish break-out signal and Target 28.00 (just below Resistance 2). This could emerge as a Channel Up pattern.
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Rivian swing idea Swing idea with shares only. Rivian is a stock I like for the future EV market. I believe it is a interest rate sensitive stock and can be worth more than its currently trading at. It is currently in a longer-term bearish channel but has formed a shorter-term bullish channel (dueling channel lines). The goal is to at least get 100% return and then if you would like you can hold some for the long-term. We will not post our stop loss here.
Potential for a squeeze in RivianRivian Automotive (RIVN) Shows Signs of Potential Squeeze Amid Accumulation Phase
Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN), the electric vehicle manufacturer, is showing intriguing signs of a potential squeeze play according to recent market data and technical analysis.
As of August 26, 2024, RIVN is trading at $13.95, near the lower end of its 52-week range of $8.26 to $24.87. However, several factors are aligning that could lead to a significant upward price movement:
1. High Short Interest: With a short interest of 12.08% and 119,324,500 shares sold short, RIVN has a considerable amount of short positions that may need to be covered if positive momentum builds.
2. Accumulation Phase: The chart indicates an "Accumulation Phase," suggesting that larger investors may be quietly building positions at current price levels.
3. Institutional Ownership: A substantial 47.4% of shares are held by institutions, which could provide stability and potential for coordinated buying pressure.
4. Analyst Optimism: Bank of America has set a 12-month price objective of $20.00, implying significant upside potential from current levels.
5. Oversold Conditions: The stock is trading well below its 52-week high, potentially setting up for a reversal if market sentiment shifts.
The combination of high short interest and signs of accumulation could create a perfect storm for a short squeeze. If positive catalysts emerge or if large institutional buyers increase their positions, it could force short sellers to cover their positions, driving the price up rapidly.
However, investors should also consider the risks. Rivian's negative EPS of -5.95 and a P/E ratio of -2.31 indicate the company is not yet profitable. The automotive industry is highly competitive, and Rivian faces challenges in scaling production and achieving profitability.
As always, thorough due diligence is essential before making any investment decisions, especially in a volatile stock with squeeze potential like RIVN
RIVN"The stability above the current support level pushes the stock to change its direction in the short term and enters into a sideways movement between the level of 11.5 and 19-20 in the medium term. The entire sector is optimistic about an interest rate cut, which is expected to start its first cut in September, as it benefits from the reduction in financing costs, which the sector currently needs."
Long term UP, mid term DOWNTSLA and RIVN move pretty similar, and I think TSLA is due a drop out in the foreseeable, so think the same will happen with RIVN before a big move up.
This is an example of a accumulation phase from another stock, and much the way I track TSLA (see my other posts for examples), it works for RIVN too to my eye.
I was recently asked what my thoughts were on RIVN, so I'm just posting this since it's done now.
But personally, I'm not going to touch it until it's sub $10 again, and probably even as low as $5 as the spring part of accumulation can hit with brute force down before heading back up.
Additionally, you know the hedgefunds will want it as low as possible before closing their short positions, and plenty of these stocks end right near the gutter before ramping, so down at $5 or less would make sense to me as a loose thought.
$RIVN - to $16 then back to $18EV vehicle market heating up like a tesla charging station in death valley.
Healthy red hammer candlestick that tapped the bottom of the regression channel.
it needs to cool it to $16 before headed to $18, this is solely based on the fib channel.
I labeled the resistance fib on the chart as well.
Interesting chart overall. This stock long term could be fantastic after a difficult start.
EV market as a whole, is set to change big. batteries are like micro ships. every year the size requirement gets cut in half.
I truly believe the electric future, but the market manipulation on EVs is wild.
Lots of speculation.
not trade advice.
RIVN DOUBLE TOP SHORT TO $7.54 AHEAD OF EARNINGS DECLINEThe chart has reached a new short-term high. The RSI on the 2 hour chart is over 70. Perfect short to $12 or lower.
Invest smart, invest hard.
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Rivian Bullish Historical Trend ContinuedVolkswagen earlier today confirmed my initial thesis. In my previous thesis I spoke about the VW potential acquisition of Rivian (RIVN). It was confirmed today by Volkswagen that they have officially acquired a minority stake in Rivian ( www.tradingview.com ).
Earlier this month news broke about Volkswagen's 5 Billion dollar deal with Rivan on a joint venture project. Many people including myself saw this as an opportunity for VW to add a EV company to its umbrella of brands. Well as of today, it was confirmed that VW now does have a minorty stake in the acquisition of Rivian. My initial feeling about the joint venture project was that this was a way of slowly acquiring the EV company. Rivian will use the money to launch themselves further while still maintaining their independence or that this was a pre-acquisition/takeover. Granted that takeover may be a strong word but essentially that is what is happening.
"When it comes to cooperation projects set up to develop new products and technologies in key cutting-edge sectors, particularly those involving large companies, we take a close look at competition in innovation," Bundeskartellamt President Andreas Mundt said in a statement on Friday. "The project does not raise any concerns in this respect, nor does it raise any other serious competition concerns."
~MT Newswire
Like and comment your thoughts on this ongoing project?
Price Analysis $25As we are nearing Earnings. I am noticing that more and more analysts are pushing their expectations higher suggesting the belief of a beat in expectations which would be just as expected which would suggest a decline in price action post earnings. If that were to be the case, we would see a decline in Revenue and an increase in EPS and future growth expectations. Now if we were to see an increase in Revenue with an increase in eps and increase in growth higher than analyst expectations, we will easily see rapid price increase. My expectations are that Analyst have undervalued Rivian Potential for growth and Rivalry to Tesla (TSLA) as we Lucid (LCID). Rivian is set to blow analyst expectations away. but again, just my thoughts.
Price target $25
valuation Strong buy