RIVN - Real action hasn't begun yetDespite good price action, movement has been slow due to the supply at these levels. It might test 22/23 next week, how it reacts at that level will decide its fate.
I am long via commons from 16.80
RIVN trade ideas
Rivian Update: Primary is wave 2 startedToday we got the OMH I said was possible and then proceeded to tank from there. We literally dropped almost $2 in 2 hours. I had also mentioned that when an ending diagonal finishes, the initial part of the retrace is swift and strong due to traders finally giving up on the upside. It appears that was the case today. I say appears because we still don't have confirmation, but the signs are there. I've said it before and I'll say it again, EWT is only as good as the analyst. I am not perfect as I am human and therefore fathomable. By the grace of God and Jesus, I have been able to interpret these charts with relative accuracy and I pray that continues.
The unfortunate part about updating throughout the day is I run out of things to post on here lol. Tomorrow, I expect this retrace to continue to the downside and potentially even finish. It is a corrective part of the count though, so we can chop around for a long time. Given the fact we are in wave (3) I don't anticipate a long wave 2 though as I have previously stated. For this to be standard we will drop to around the 0.382 @ $21.25 but would not be too far out of the ordinary to end at the 0.236 @ $18.66.
My plan as of now, is to start layering in shares around $21.50. I may even buy a couple calls in that area depending on what MACD is telling us. Right now, on the hourly chart the MACD has started to curl up. This could be due this being a wave 4, but I think MACD dropped a little too far for that. With the depth it has dropped, it gives me confidence we're in a wave 2. The micros show some positive divergence, but that could just be due to a b wave about to form. In short, as said prior, I expect us to continue down tomorrow but you should be ready for the possibly we move higher given nothing is confirmed. Dropping below the prior wave 4 is a big indicator the upward structure is starting to crack. The prior wave 4 in this case is @ $21.65. If we raise impulsively, that is your clue we're most likely headed for the 0.786 @ $30.47. I will update tomorrow as needed.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Validating $RIVN Ichimoku and Fibonacci - Trend AffirmedI want to validate RIVN on Ichimoku and Fibonacci.
The trend seems to be intact and not broken as it h as a big support at 20 as shown below. If it breaches the 26.8 resistance which is the Fib Resistance, it has to just fly from there.
Will watch closely and please provide the feedback
RIVN: Week of December 18RIVN levels in the chart.
Personally bullish following the breakout but a re-test is possible:
About 35% of accumulation rests just over 2 SDs (24.17) since the start of the pennant formation:
And the volume accumulation also rests to the upside:
Bullish overall, watch the conditions though as always.
Expect a bit of resistance at 24.17.
Rivian Update: is 1 finally done?That is the question I have been asking for the last couple days lol. When I say wave 3's are the strongest I wasn't kidding. They are also usually the longest wave too, and this is just the beginning. As of now I have a complete count, we're on negative divergence, and we are in the area of a normal ending area for this extension. I have said multiple times that the 2.618 is a common spot for us to end. Well, as soon as we crossed that fib, we started to chop and came just $0.02 cents aways from the 2.786 fib. I believe this formed an ending diagonal to finish out our wave 1. Rather it needs OMH or not I am unsure as of now. These are all just signs though, and nothing has been confirmed. We could still easily move up towards the 0.786 fib @ $30.47.
If this is an ending diagonal, then the start of the retrace should be swift. This is a function of traders finally realizing they need to sell and giving up on the upside. Thus, the swift move is created. Because we are in wave (3) our retraces will most likely be small and quick in nature, not a rule just an observation I have made in other situations. Hopefully tomorrow we can start this retrace and have it only last a short time. Time will tell, good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN Rivian on the verge of breakoutRIVN - Rivian Automotive is on the verge of major breakout.
It is closer to the multi-month down trend line at 24.78.
Once it closes above 25 the next upside targets are 28.28, 35.78 and 40.70
Support at 20.19, 15 and 13.07
RIVIAN Channel Up targeting $35.50Rivian (RIVN) gave us a great break-out buy entry on our previous November 29 analysis (see chart below) as it broke above the Inner Lower Highs and hit our $21.00 target:
The pattern that is now dominating the 1D log chart is a Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to negate the recently made Death Cross and cross back again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a Golden Cross. This will be a strong bullish continuation signal for the current bullish leg of the Channel Up. We are bullish again on this stock, targeting $35.50, which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, the Feb level where the previous Higher High was made.
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Rivian Weekend UpdateI'm not going to spend much time on this as I have been very clear/thorough with my expectations on what I think will happen next. It looks like we have carved out an a-b wave with a c wave to follow. The c wave should ideally complete Monday. The primary question I will have at that time is, will it be an abc to complete our A of 2 or will it be the whole ABC of 2? The answer should hopefully reveal itself early next week.
When we enter into the smaller box with a thicker border, I will start to re-accumulate at a slow pace depending on the structure. I still have 200 shares at this time and would like to pick up another 300 or so along with a big ole handful of calls. I work Monday but will try to update y'all as able/needed. Good Luck and as always, I will try to post any trades I make on here.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: I love it when a plan comes togetherAs the title suggests, I love it when things work out lol. We have received some key indicators the last couple days suggesting my count is correct. For instance, the 3min MACD did NOT make a new high today despite it making a new high on the 1Hr chart. The previous high on the 3min MACD was with-in my wave iii count, right where it is supposed to be. That is a good indicator this move up is still wave 1 of (3). Also, the 1HR MACD is starting to curl down which is another indicator this move is coming to an end. I'm not saying this move up is done, only that if it isn't done already, it will be soon. I can count a 5-wave move for what I am calling our mini-wave 5 though, so this thing could easily start it's retrace tomorrow. That being said, it ain't over till it's over and we could continue to extend out to the 2.618 which is the most common endpoint for extensions. As most of my long-term followers know, I don't predict time as corrective waves can chop forever. One thing to remember though, if this is indeed wave (3), then retraces should be short due to the momentum of moving higher/being in the strongest portion of the count.
I could be one degree off technically and this could be the start of wave 3 of (3) just due to the shear strength of the move up. As I stated earlier though, I would have expected the MACD to show more strength if that was the case.
On the chart I have a target box for wave 2. I know it is a big box, but that is because the range in which we can retrace is great. Normally I would want us to at least hit the 0.618 retracement fib, but since we are in wave (3) it could easily only drop to the 0.382 retracement fib. Until I have the A-B wave's I cannot make a narrowed target. Once price carves them out, I will supply an update with that info. Due to the strength of the current wave though, wave 2 could literally be carved out with-in one pre-market session. I am not anticipating this, but something y'all should be aware of. Good luck everyone!
Here is the 3min chart with the micro labels.
P.S: Notice how all the sudden there is nothing but glowing news coming out for Rivian? AFTER I had already forecasted this move higher...food for thought.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: $RIVN) Meteoric Rise
Rivian (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) has been a roller coaster since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2021. Except it's only been one part of the roller coaster ride: the part where it sharply drops. Rivian has shed roughly 80% of its value since its IPO, but as the company heads into 2024 with some momentum, is the time finally right for investors to jump back in?
Fundamentals Analysis
New batteries
Let's talk about something else that could move the needle for Rivian investors: its new battery packs. Recently its chief financial officer, Claire McDonough, detailed a couple of interesting battery developments.
Rivian is introducing a standard battery pack that lowers the selling price of R1 vehicles from roughly $78,000 down to $70,000, opening up a larger addressable market. But it also teased a new battery that's simpler to manufacture. The simpler battery is expected to remove thousands of dollars of costs from production.
That's perfect timing for a company that has its sights set on becoming gross-profit positive in 2024 and has already made substantial progress in cutting its loss per vehicle. In fact, its gross profit per vehicle improved by $2,000 sequentially in the third quarter.
Better yet, Rivian will begin construction of its Georgia plant in early 2024, which will set the stage to roll out its new R2 vehicles by 2026. Those vehicles are set to sell for roughly $30,000 less than its R1 vehicles, broadening its target market.
Is Rivian a Buy?
NASDAQ:RIVN is truly making improvements in a lot of areas, including reducing its cash crunch, expanding its options to sell delivery vans, and setting the stage for new vehicles and new battery packs. And it hasn't had to deal with tense labor negotiations because its sole factory is not unionized. Remember that Ford and GM are busy offsetting billions in cost increases from their new United Auto Workers contracts.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) is trading above the 50, 100 & 200-day Moving Averages Respectively, indicating continual of the current trend.
RIVIAN about to test the breakout of the trendUpcoming days for the NASDAQ:RIVN will be crucial as it will be testing out the breakout phase
Putting RIVN on watchWatching RIVN closely to see which direction it takes. This could be a tradeable range with tight stops.
Rivian Update: Count is on trackToday was a good day. Hopefully others were able to take advantage of Rivian's moves. Keep in mind this is just the beginning. The next target I have, as you can see by my box, is $20.91-$21.64. Price could easily extend beyond that point but that is the "standard" ending for what I am calling wave 1 of (3). If price does extend out, then the most likely next ending would be the 2.618 fib extension @ $23.89. You can't see it on here I don't think, but the 2.618 is right by where my two trend lines intersect. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves though and remain conservative as to keep the profits we have already made.
From where we are now It seems we have almost finished this micro (i) of v. To me, the micro's look as if it is in its last mini-wave 4&5 of i. We are also approaching my trend line and will most likely bounce down off of that IF we reach it. That would make a good spot to end the mini-wave i and start our retrace for ii. Until we finish mini-wave i and have started wave ii I'm not going to try and guess where we will retrace to.
Technically according to EWT rules we can retrace all the way to $17.77 and still remain a valid count. Also, something else to keep in mind, we made a new high today and almost have a 5-wave structure moving up. This could, technically speaking, be ALL of wave v of 1. I don't think either are the case, but something to keep in the back of your mind to be ready for any scenario.
I work tomorrow but will update as able. Good luck everyone!!
P.S: In case you missed it, I have exited ALL option positions. I have still retained my shares as I don't have to worry about decay / added volatility. I am not bearish as you can tell, I just wanted to capture their profits. When we retrace, I will buy more options and post them on here as always.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: 12/12/23I don't have time to go to far in depth tonight. Suffice to say I believe I was one degree off and we should be headed back up tomorrow. We bounced off my bottom trend line to the cent on the 3min timeframe, raised on pos div so it has been a healthy raise, and the 1Hr MACD has began to curl up and is in need of a reset. These things are just a couple that give me confidence in the count. Tomorrow should hopefully bring some clarity on the matter.
The target area I am watching for us to hit on the next ascent is around the $20-$22 range. Would be awesome to hit that tomorrow but highly doubtful. With the fed meeting you just never know though. Ideally I would like us to hit it by EOW.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: Stock Pundits are a JOKEI saw an article earlier that literally said Rivian is getting a bump from Tesla's cyber truck. I just thought to myself, this guy needs to be fired. I don't usually get worked up but how lazy can you be. That has nothing to do with why Rivian stock is rising. TESLA didn't even raise from it as it's been stagnant for almost a month now. What a joke. I hope he/she reads this and is disappointed in themselves for the extremely lazy piece of "work" they decided to put out for people to waste their time reading. Anyway, on to what matters...the ACTUAL reasons Rivian is raising.
I have been tracking Rivian for quite some time now, and I would argue I know it better then I know the Tesla chart. I have spent HOURS on Tesla too. Rivian, however, is so textbook to this point it's not even funny. If you are a long-time follower of me, you would know I started out posting on Rivian some time ago and have used it since to hone my skills. Well April of this year, Rivian made a very distinctive move and created it's forever bottom as long as the company remains to be operated wisely. @sriaishu traded that move with me and can also vouch I did indeed call it before it happened. After we completed that impulsive 5-wave move up for wave (1), we began a corrective 3-wave move down in the form of an ABC. Since that bottom we have rallied up to almost 30% and hit $19.55 before slightly retracing. According to my primary count we just finished wave iv and should start to move up for wave v of (iii). It is possible we get OML, but it should be slight if we do.
MACD made a new high on ALL the micros, is on positive divergence, and the 1HR potentially changing direction (creating another higher low) all say we should head up. The count/structure suggests we should head up and many other signals are pointing higher, and soon. I suspect the next move up should target closer to the 1.618 fib @ $20.35 or possibly even extend past it. Idk if y'all read some of these "articles" out there but take note of how they have changed their tune on Rivian's stock as of late. As of now I currently have 250 shares around $15 and 60 calls. I will most likely sell all calls on the next big move higher to cash in those profits and then rebuy new contracts on the retrace. I will hold the shares for now and decide later when to sell them. I'm off tomorrow and will be watching. Good luck everyone, I hope you are capitalizing on Rivian.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RiVN: $38 bidding at $18levelsfor an ev to take a piece of tesla ... this requires funding through depression of shares where proceeds shall be used for campaign and building a community that will create its own BRAND
reserve 50% of fund at $3 as insurannce when it emulates NiKOLA back in the day
Rivian Update: POWER of EWT on FULL display todayWell, today was satisfying to say the least. I have been calling on a rise to start for a while now, and today I believe we have finally started that next big move higher. I have tried to be open about my limited experience comparatively and my need to improve on timing. I hope you all take that to heart when reading these posts that I create. I also want to thank Jesus for giving me the ability to predict price movements as I do. Without Him I couldn't do this! I only hope you all allow Him into your hearts and witness His blessings for yourselves. 🙏
As you notice on the chart, I again have multiple different colored labels. Per the usual, white=Primary, turquoise=1st ALT, orange=2nd ALT. My primary is allowing for a slight overlap in pricing with one stipulation. It HAS to go up from here. If it makes another low below $18.27 then my 2nd ALT becomes my primary. I know some of you are thinking, What about the 1st ALT? If price drops below $18.27, then that would cause price to overlap yet again, and I won't replace an overlapping count with another. That would break it down to these two options imo--#1: 2nd ALT suggesting we are in yet another wave 2 for another extension, #2: price/the count are breaking down.
The arguments for my primary are in abundance. The 3min MACD made a new high since we bottomed on 10 Nov., ALL smaller timeframe and daily/weekly MACD's are pointing up, P/C ratio=0.395, Friday's and now today's impulsivity/strength etc. etc. Honestly, I could keep going lol. The 1Hr MACD hasn't pierced the red line I made yet though. This could signify extensions being made, just plain old complexity increasing, or potentially even the count starting to fracture/fail. Yes, that did escalate quickly! lol, I don't think price is starting to fail at this time...but something we need to watch out for, nonetheless.
2nd ALT suggests I am one degree off, and we have already completed our wave iii/iv and should move higher for wave v. The difference between my primary and 1st ALT will be very small and hard to distinguish until a little later in the count. So, unless we get clarity in price action or MACD I will most likely be tracking both of these counts for a while. Attached below is my 4HR chart showing a zoomed out big picture outlook, and a 3min chart as well showing how high MACD went today along with the micro price action. Tomorrow I am off and will be watching price action. If warranted I will make updates throughout the day.
3min chart
4HR chart
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
P.S: Who loves EWT???!!!!
Rivian Stock Surged Today: Here's Why It Could Keep SoaringRivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating an upward trend. The 10-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level, while the 50-day EMA is acting as a long-term trend line.
The stock is also above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a bullish sign. However, the stock is below its 100-day EMA and SMA, which could act as resistance levels in the future. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 58.7, which is neither overbought nor oversold.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is positive and above its signal line, which is a bullish sign.
Rivian is also trading above its pivot point of $17.76, which is a bullish sign. The next resistance levels are at $18.69, $19.35, and $20.28. The next support levels are at $17.10, $16.17, and $15.51.
Rivian stock is in a strong uptrend and has positive momentum. However, some of the oscillators are indicating that the stock is overbought and could face a correction in the near term.
