SHOP/N trade ideas
SHOP Post Move Analysis:Could we seen the move from indicators?SHOP went from 1000 to 1250 in less than 10 days. Could we have foreseen the move? Possibly.
SHOP consolidated more than 4 months in a long rectangle which is a continuation pattern or corrective.
The tell for the breakout was a 3D Squeeze which also was clued by the tilting upwards of Stoch RSI.
On the Chart, there are 1, 2, 3 numbered to point out the signs.
I have learned 3D Squeeze is generally more powerful than other time frames. It did have a 4 h Squeeze but produced a weak move.
And there is no Daily squeeze which was the most-watched time frame for squeeze style trading.
Where the stock go from there? That's for the next analysis.
Only clear skies ahead?Our range play has turned into a full continuation phase to the upside. We couldn't have predicted this strong of a bounce it has even outperformed AMZN. I could list a series of "fundamental stories" for why it has had a great run but when you trade with a model you don't have any. As long as shop holds above its previous range state and the net up vs down volume stays positive we will continue to hold.
SHOP looking promising.Watch for a break of this consolidations. See previous post. Potential for massive move it it breaks. First targets equal extension. Make sure broader market is supporting a bull move.
Additional Info:
I am an intraday scalper and short term swing trader of stocks & Futures using options and equity.
I focus on high volume momentum stocks in strong uptrends.
My time frame is between 5minutes to 5 days on most trades.
I scale into positions and scale out of positions as my targets are hit.
I always trail my stops after T1 is hit to reduce risk and lock in gains.
If my post is on a Weekly/Daily/240M chart the idea is a swing trade.
If my post is on a 60M chart or lower the idea is a day trade.
Day trades can turn into swing trades if the stock is strong.
All trades should be supported by market direction.
Treat my posts as trade ideas and not signals.
Traders must trade using their own back tested trade plan and rules.
Traders must plan risk first and profits second.
Happy Trading!
SHOPIFY INCSHOPIFY INC
Our share of this is a trend-level acceleration and a very high explosion Strong and large volume of large traders and buyers During the week's calm, the purchase was made
$SHOP breaking out and held its backtest$SHOP has been ranging for a few months now. It has finally broken out and held its backtest.
SHOP = going downThe double top on the 4 hour.... since I've been watching SHOP > post COVID-19 never runs up big two days in a row. This WILL drop a little more. RSI overrrrr sold.
SHOP valued ~56x revenue...No chart analysis needed for such an overvalued stock.
Pros for SHOP: high-growth sector, profitable, tech based, backed by big funding, decent branding.
Cons for SHOP: EV ~56x revenue, limited capturable market, weak monetization scheme, low market share.
I expect Shopify stock to crash spectacularly within 1-2 years, conditioned on one of two things happening:
1. A major recession kills non-essential online consumer spending.
2. Revenue does not increase considerably to justify lofty valuation.
Without immense Xx revenue growth the fundamentals of this stock will continue to be incredibly overvalued.
Only serious potential I see in this companies current valuation is if it makes more strategic partnerships like it's deal with Walmart. The deal with Walmart has seemingly increased quarterly revenue considerably, but despite this, Shopify's monetization scheme and relatively small market share make them a ripe target for acquisition (Not at 140b valuation of course) or challenges from rivals in the tech space (Amazon).
Quick comparison to Shopifys closest rival: MercadoLibre (80B market cap).
MercadoLibre EV/R ratio: 24.5x (half of Shopify's)
MercadoLibre Revenue: 2.2B (19')
MercadoLibre 2020 estimated revenue: 3.2B
Shopify 2019 revenue: 1.5B
Shopify 2020 estimated revenue: 2.8B
Yet Mercadolibre's market capitalization is 60b less than Shopify.. Shopify as a company isn't hot garbage, but it's stock valuation sure is.
PRICE target: $400 by 3/15/2021
SHOPIFY - SHOP - took full loss on Iron ButterflySHOPIFY - SHOP - took full loss on Iron Butterfly
ugh... i hate it when that happens, but .. it's one of those trades. You go into it knowing that it's a low probability trade.
Would you have taken this trade? Comment below.
$SHOP Shopify $1345 Breakout Target
SHOP had a amazing breakout yesterday above the downtrend and closed at a ATH.
The rally stalled at a Fibonacci 1-2-1 target $1165
Today could very well see a move to $1200.
Above which we have major Fibonacci confluence at $1230-$1235.
$1337-$1345 Medium term target.
SHOP , Short I don't like shorting this in the holiday season when they will likely have increased transactions but at the same time right now we have a nice technical entry and P/E not looking so good.
For me, this justifies a short position . They could very well out perform and go higher too but I think a short is the better play going into 2022.
Good luck ~
