SHY trade ideas
UPDATE: Short term bonds spell good news for GoldHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
Rally for US Treasury bonds?A lot of negativity surrounding bonds these days but this count might suggest that US treasuries are due a rally or something more. This count suggests that they have finished a 5 wave down and perhaps have completed an even longer correction dating back to 2008. There is some decent divergence on the RSI to support the case and that is a pretty decent candle on the weekly chart. Interesting times.
$SHY - 1-3 Year US Treasuries - I'm Starting To See A Pattern!A little tongue in cheek here but clearly the end of the year has been a time when people have moved OUT OF short term treasuries and into other assets or durations.
The news has been covering how short term rates are at their highest levels in years here. I'm pulling up the chart and with the great indicator "MTPC" for "Multi-Time-Period-Charts" I was able to see the quarterly pattern where interest rates tend to rise into year end for the past few years.
When $SHY goes down, the Yield goes up. They are inversely related.
So, it would seem that investors are afraid of the new US Gov't Tax Bill as it doesn't attack the problem and doesn't "drain the swamp" that we wished would happen. So, the credit-rating of the US Gov't could be in jeopardy with this new development.
Hence, investors are backing away from short term US Gov't paper.
But BUY at year end since that has been the pattern.
For now, we have had Fed Rate Hikes on
12/16/2015
12/14/2016
03/16/2017
06/14/2017
So, the market is telling us to expect another rate hike in Mid-December.
Cheers,
Tim
11/16/2017 4:19PM EST
