SLB (Short) - Betting on demand destruction in oil marketsThe Overall Market
The current market is extremely tricky, but it is possible to find a rational explanation for every move. I took a closer look at the oil market , which is clearly undergoing gradual demand destruction caused by the recession fears (like the recent economic news from China) Although I understand that the bigger-picture supply situation might lead to higher commodity prices in the future, demand destruction is likely to prevail in the next 3-6 months. My target range for oil is 60-70$ . The broader markets are also due for a correction after that massive run, which would give more momentum to my trade.
Fundamentals
With this view in mind, I started looking for a way to express this idea. I choose to be a little riskier, so I wanted to express the trade through a single stock short (but there are obviously many more ways to express this trade if you want to take less or more risk). Hence, I started looking for energy stocks which perform the worst on a relative scale . I arrived at SLB; a large-cap company ($50b), so don't expect too much volatility. Although the firm's fundamentals are pretty solid, its share price is not able to diverge from its strong correlation with the oil price.
Technicals
From a technical point of view, the stock gets 10/10. We saw a massive slump during June, which indicated the end of the prior trend . Since then, the stock has consolidated and returned to a very strong line of support/resistance (black line). I would suggest setting stop loss just above this line, on top of the previous high (red line). This gives a perfect risk/reward (R/R) ratio where you risk only 4% . The stock is also being approached from above by its 50 and 200 SMA. MACD is showing a bearish divergence while just turning at the 0 line. Daily RSI also nicely bounced around the 60 level and seems ready to head back to the bearish territory. If you switch to a weekly chart, you will see that the weekly RSI just broke down and looks like heading lower. I indicated two profit targets (green lines). One would give you R/R of 4:1, the other around 6:1.
Happy trading.
