$SMCIlike the support and volume here, and we have fib 0,5% close to the SL i will wait for a 1h candel under my SL
SMCI trade ideas
$SMCI Sneaky MOVERNASDAQ:SMCI has lots of size buyers coming in for this weeks expiration. The stock has has tremendous technical damage and is just drifting. The buying is indicating that someone knows something that retail doesn’t. Technically, if it can get above the supply at 149, we can see a spike to 50.61 with is last weeks highs and this current months highs. Trade this name with caution.
SMCI at a Critical Support: Will Buyers Return?In the daily time frame, SMCI is approaching a key support zone, highlighted in green. This area previously acted as strong resistance, with several attempts to break above it. Although the price hasn’t returned to this zone yet, I believe once it does, buyers could step in again. This level has proven significant before, and if the price revisits this support, it could present a potential buying opportunity. Keep an eye on this zone, as it may signal a shift in momentum if buyers come back. This version reflects that the price hasn’t yet revisited the support zone.
SMCI RISKY LONG I am looking to enter at range 41.5$-44$ with SL at low of the current structure.
will aim for 59$-60$ area
* must be carful with earning around the corner
will update when it reach these areas, and decide the best action depends on market overall movement
SMCI: Stock Split with Chart UpdateSMCI had a stock split, so I have to update this chart.
Light Fundamental:
It is a stock called SMCI (or Super Mico Computer). It is a US company that makes super powerful computers and servers. The world needs servers to help run things like big websites, apps, and AI. The stock price fell by half. So, it is selling at a discount for what it is really worth. So, it is a good chance to buy it.
Technicals:
Gartley-like pattern
diagonal support
engulfing bullish pattern with d3 volume and volume confirmation
a-b-c completion at a 78.2% fib pullback
Entry is above the weekly engulfing bullish candle at 475.44.
Target is, tentatively, 1500.
Note: preparing for either an election rally or a Christmas rally in stocks
50 and over a new start of consolidation with a breakout Macd is approaching 0, still higher, and other candles are continuing. There is no sign of fade or slowdown; it is just ready to distribute. I am still very bullish based on technicals, price sentiment, and value. With this still priced low, I could see 50-60 in the short term. Stochastics are not high, either. They will reset, but I don't think it is likely yet.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.
We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further.
Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.
If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
SMCI thin structure retracement1. NVDA's large 100k server order
2. Nobody compare's to their pace of delivery
3. Never got the chance to recover from the Aug and Sept rally
4. NVDA isn't the only one making the 100k orders. There are other companies besides NVDA ordering servers and infra from them all over the world.
SUPERMICRO. BUY WHEN THERE'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS.The worse the market - the greater the opportunity to profit it gives.
This seems to be the credo of contrarian, or counter investing.
Nathan Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying:
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”
Whether or not Rothschild actually uttered this famous line, it reveals an important truth about betting against market psychology. When prices are falling and markets are shaky, bold contrarian investing can yield big returns.
Key Takeaways
👉 Contrarian investing is a strategy that goes against prevailing market trends or sentiment.
👉 The idea is that markets are subject to herd behavior, fueled by fear and greed, which causes markets to periodically overprice or underprice.
👉 “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” said Warren Buffett. This phrase embodies a similar philosophy, perhaps just in a slightly more succinct form.
Historically, market panics can be a great opportunity for cheap investing.
Most d̶u̶m̶b̶a̶s̶s̶ ̶ people want to have ONLY WINNERS in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, “In the stock market, you pay a very high price for a happy consensus.”
In other words, if the crowd is unanimous in agreeing on an investment decision, it’s probably NOT A GOOD ONE.
Going Against the dumbass Crowd
Contrarians, as the name suggests, try to do the opposite of the crowd. They get excited when a good company’s stock price drops sharply and unfairly. They swim against the tide and assume that the market is usually wrong at both extreme lows and highs. The more prices fluctuate, the more delusional they think the rest of the market is.
Contrarian investors believe that people say the market is going up when and why they are fully invested and have no further buying power.
At that point, the market is peaking and should be going down. When people predict a decline, they are already sold out, and at that point, the market can only go up.
For this reason, contrarian thinking is great for figuring out whether a particular stock has actually bottomed.
Bad times build wealth
😬 Contrarian investors have historically made their best investments during times of market turmoil. During the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US fell 22% in one day.
😬 During the 1973–74 bear market, the market lost 45% in about 22 months.
😬 The September 11, 2001 attacks also caused the market to fall significantly.
I AM CERTAINLY NOT AN ADVOCATE OF VIOLANCE
But the list of facts goes on and on. And these were the times when contrarians found their best investments.
😬 The 1973–1974 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to buy a stake in the Washington Post Company, an investment that subsequently rose more than 100 times its purchase price. That’s before dividends.
Buffett said at the time that he was buying the company’s shares at a deep discount, as evidenced by the fact that the company could “sell (the Post’s) assets to any of 10 buyers for at least $400 million, probably considerably more.” more." Meanwhile, the Washington Post's market cap at the time was just $80 million. In 2013, the company was sold to Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos for $250 million in cash.
😬 After the 9/11 attacks, the world stopped moving for a while. Let's say you were investing in Boeing (BA), one of the world's largest commercial aircraft makers, during that time. Boeing's stock bottomed out just a year after 9/11, but since then, it has more than quadrupled in the next five years. Clearly, while 9/11 may have temporarily soured market sentiment on the airline industry, those who had done their research and were willing to bet on Boeing's survival were well rewarded.
😬 Sir John Templeton ran the Templeton Growth Fund from 1954 to 1992, when he sold it. For every $10,000 invested, into an A-share fund in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992 with dividends reinvested, or an annual return of about 14.5%.
Templeton was a pioneer of international investing. He was also a serious contrarian investor, buying into countries and companies when, according to his principle, they reached their "POINT OF MAX. PESSIMISM."
Four years later, he sold the stock for a huge profit.
The Risks of Contrarian Investing
While the most famous contrarian investors bet big money, went against the grain, and succeeded, they also did a lot of research to make sure the crowd was wrong.
So when a stock takes a big dive, it doesn't prompt the contrarian to place an immediate buy order, but to figure out what caused the stock to fall and whether the price drop is justified.
Knowing which distressed stocks to buy and sell once the company recovers is a major concern for contrarian investors. This can lead to stocks that deliver much higher returns than usual. However, being overly optimistic about hyped stocks can have the opposite effect.
Final Points.
👉 While each of these successful contrarian investors has their own strategy for evaluating potential investments, they all have one thing in common: they let the market give them deals instead of chasing them.
👉 What's next for Supermicro stock? Who knows, who knows..
It's very individual and depends on what you're looking for... opportunity or denial.
👉 The current 6-month return on investment in Supermicro stock is -58.44% - a pretty rare occurrence for SMCI.
This has never happened before.. even in times of WFC, Covid-19 or smth else.
Indeed, several times 6-months returns were quite negative for SMCI. Then Supermicro shares doubled or even tripled in price in just several next years.
What principle and style of investing do you adhere to?! Please share your comments and feedback in the box below! 👇👇
SMCI Potential long opportunitySMCI shows some strength here. If market (SPY, QQQ) turns green, SMCI could fill the gap fairly quick over 48.74$
****NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY ****
SMCI: Are we back in business??Super Micro Computer just broke over the LH 1 trendline holding since July 15th and is about to turn bullish again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.296, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 24.033). Coming off a double bottom (DB), the only resistance left before the bullish trend is resumed, is the 1D MA50 (untested since July 17th). The 1D RSI already made its breakout over its own R level. When the 1D MA50 breaks, target the LH2 trendline (TP = 78.00).
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Super Micro Computer Stock up 16% Amidst AI DemandSuper Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) has recently been thrust back into the spotlight after announcing a surge in shipments of its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs). These GPUs, driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, are powering some of the largest AI factories globally. The company revealed that it has deployed over 100,000 GPUs utilizing its proprietary liquid cooling technology, designed to help AI data centers cut down on energy costs while improving operational performance. The news has given NASDAQ:SMCI a fresh momentum, with the stock soaring 16.37% as of Monday’s trading.
AI Boom Fueling Growth
The ongoing boom in AI is playing a pivotal role in NASDAQ:SMCI ’s resurgence. The company, which supplies critical server infrastructure used for AI model training, data storage, and large-scale cloud operations, has been a significant beneficiary of the rising demand for GPU-powered AI systems. Partnering with Nvidia (NVDA), NASDAQ:SMCI leverages Nvidia’s cutting-edge $30,000 chips to service the growing AI sector. The company's ability to deploy more than 100,000 GPUs per quarter could translate into billions of dollars in potential revenue.
Additionally, NASDAQ:SMCI 's latest innovation—its direct liquid cooling products—has opened new avenues for reducing the overall energy footprint of data centers. CEO Charles Liang noted that these solutions are already being adopted by "state-of-the-art" AI factories, further solidifying the company’s standing in the green technology landscape.
Despite this growth, NASDAQ:SMCI has faced its share of challenges. The company is currently about nine weeks behind on filing its annual report, citing ongoing assessments of its internal controls over financial reporting. Furthermore, a recent investigation by the Department of Justice, following allegations of accounting manipulation by Hindenburg Research, caused shares to drop 12% last month. Still, with AI demand continuing to fuel orders, NASDAQ:SMCI ’s fundamentals remain strong.
Technical Outlook: A Bullish Flag in the Making?
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:SMCI is showing signs of a potential rebound after weeks of decline. The stock's 16% jump on Monday suggests that investors are starting to recognize the company’s growth potential once again. Currently, NASDAQ:SMCI is trading within a presumed falling trend channel, but with the latest bullish momentum, it appears ready to break out of this bearish pattern.
One of the most encouraging signs on the daily price chart is the early formation of a bullish flag pattern, a signal typically associated with the continuation of an upward trend. The stock has also avoided hitting overbought or oversold territory, as reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is primed for further gains.
However, NASDAQ:SMCI is still trading below key moving averages (MAs), which serves as a point of caution for traders. A sustained move above these MAs could indicate a more stable reversal, suggesting that the stock might migrate from its current bearish trend into a more balanced state.
Outlook: Hope in the Midst of Uncertainty
While the stock remains down by over 50% from its March highs, the recent surge and new product innovations offer a glimmer of hope. If NASDAQ:SMCI can clear its regulatory hurdles and capitalize on the ongoing demand for AI infrastructure, the stock may continue to rise. The combination of fundamental strength in AI growth and the promising technical setup offers a compelling case for long-term investors.
The next key for investors to watch will be NASDAQ:SMCI 's ability to regain ground above its moving averages, solidifying the bullish reversal. If the bullish flag pattern plays out, the stock could see further gains as AI demand and liquid cooling innovation continue to drive its growth.
SMCI has positive bullish divergence on the RSIWe go long SMCI as there is positive bullish divergence on the RSI setting the target to the high in Q1 2024.
Supermicro and Fujitsu Collaborate on Green AI ComputingSupermicro stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) Shows Bullish Potential Despite Stock Dip
Supermicro, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) and Fujitsu have recently announced a long-term strategic collaboration to develop cutting-edge green AI computing technology and liquid-cooled datacenter solutions. This partnership, which will focus on future AI, HPC, and next-generation data centers, aims to provide more energy-efficient solutions for the growing demand in AI and data infrastructure while minimizing environmental impact.
Strategic Collaboration Overview
The collaboration includes developing platforms using Fujitsu's upcoming **Arm-based “FUJITSU-MONAKA” processor**, targeted for release in 2027. This processor will be designed for high-performance computing while also being energy-efficient. Supermicro’s liquid-cooling technology will play a vital role, helping to address the challenge of rising data center power consumption and environmental concerns. Together, the companies aim to create green IT architectures that align with global sustainability goals.
Supermicro CEO Charles Liang stated, “These systems will be optimized to support a broad range of workloads in AI, HPC, cloud, and edge environments.” The companies’ combined technical capabilities are expected to enhance performance across several industries while reducing the ecological footprint of data centers.
The liquid-cooled systems, which Supermicro is already leading in, will be central to this effort. The companies aim to bring rack-scale liquid cooling solutions that offer not just high-performance processing, but also **green AI infrastructure** that meets the global demand for scalable, energy-efficient AI and computing platforms.
Strengths and Future Outlook
Supermicro has continued to position itself as a leader in IT infrastructure. The company's focus on energy efficiency and green computing aligns with broader market trends, especially as environmental concerns become central in technology development. The new FUJITSU-MONAKA processor promises to deliver excellent performance and power efficiency, crucial for AI workloads and data centers of the future. This processor, using cutting-edge 2-nanometer technology, will strengthen Supermicro’s competitive edge in both the AI and broader HPC market.
In addition, the partnership will extend globally with the inclusion of Fsas Technologies Inc., a subsidiary of Fujitsu, providing AI platforms based on Supermicro's GPU servers. This move will allow both companies to offer top-tier AI solutions on a global scale, aiding enterprises and data center operators in leveraging AI-driven digital transformation (DX).
Technical Analysis
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:SMCI stock is down 1.07%, but the technical indicators point to a potential bullish reversal. The daily chart reveals the formation of a bullish flag pattern, which signals a potential upward breakout. A move above the $75 pivot would confirm this bullish momentum and could trigger a substantial rally in the stock, given the broader AI and tech stock trends this year.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently sits at 38, which indicates that the stock may be in oversold territory. This could present an excellent buying opportunity for investors who believe in the long-term potential of Supermicro (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ), especially with its involvement in green AI and liquid-cooling technologies.
Conclusion
Supermicro’s collaboration with Fujitsu marks an important step forward in creating a sustainable and high-performance AI infrastructure, essential for the future of data centers. Despite the stock’s current dip, the technical analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal on the horizon, fueled by favorable industry conditions and the company’s focus on innovative, green technologies. Investors might view the RSI level as an opportunity to enter or accumulate positions, given the long-term promise of this partnership and the growing demand for AI-driven solutions.
Supermicro is well-positioned to benefit from both its focus on sustainability and the growing demand for AI infrastructure, making it a stock to watch closely in the near term and beyond.
$SMCI Trade IdeaNASDAQ:SMCI Trade Idea
Calls over $42.74
Target: $43.77, $44.64
Puts under $40
Target: $37.30, $34.76, $33.36
SMCI Is it a by after the stock split??Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) just had their 10-for-1 stock split and what's on everyone's mind now is this: Is it a buy? Well after a fresh 8-month Low last Thursday, the market certainly doesn't look at its best, quite the contrary, it is on the worst position it could be after the July 15 High and the start of a Channel Down with series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
There is a certain level though, where all of SMCI corrections came to an end since the March 23 2020 bullish break-out during the COVID flash crash, and that is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As you can see, before the stock turned completely parabolic in May 2023, it was trading within a Channel Up since the October 01 2018 market bottom. With the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels, we can accurately put into context the subsequent parabolic move too, which extended all the way to almost the 4.0 Fibonacci extension on the week of March 04 2024 and the All Time High (ATH), before starting its correction.
In the meantime, notice the excellent Buy Signal that the 1W RSI is giving in the last 6 years, every time it approaches the 30.00 oversold barrier.
So as long as the 1W MA100 keeps closing the stocks weekly candles above it, we will be bullish, targeting $125.00 (the ATH). If that fails to support though, expect further downside to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), where we will place a second long-term buy.
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death cross SMA volume box resistance fib zone correctionOther indicators, such as no sign of a reversal, follow the downward trend. Catalyst is still out there on the short, not necessarily to do directly with the company. Might see closer to the lows of last year, of course, post-split being upper 20-mid 30. Until that happens, it's bearish.
SMCI. buy or wait?Should you time the entry or just buy and see what happens. Over a longer time horizon this is a good purchase, but the question is whether the pullback has finished pulling back? SMCI could go to 300 before hitting 600, but I do see it heading to 600+ in the not distant future. Perhaps it is worthwhile to open a small position and worst case if it starts pumping now I won't miss out fully. Only open bigger position if goes lower makes sense to me.
Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Amid Federal Accounting ProbeSuper Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ), a prominent player in the AI hardware space, saw its stock tumble by 15% on Thursday after reports surfaced that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has opened a federal investigation into the company. The probe, sparked by allegations of accounting manipulation and other improprieties, has sent shockwaves through the market. For a company that had been riding high on the back of the AI boom, this investigation poses serious questions about its future trajectory.
The Backstory: Short-Seller Allegations and Federal Involvement
The DOJ's investigation follows a damning report by Hindenburg Research, a well-known short-seller, which was released in August. In the report, Hindenburg alleged that Super Micro Computer engaged in accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing, and sanctions evasion. The short-seller also pointed to undisclosed related-party transactions, export control violations, and suspicious customer issues.
The allegations didn’t just arise from external analysis—internal turmoil has also surfaced. A former employee of Super Micro filed a whistleblower lawsuit earlier this year, accusing the company of improper accounting practices. The lawsuit also names Charles Liang, the CEO of Super Micro, who has been a central figure in the company's rise during the AI boom. These combined factors appear to have prompted federal officials to begin looking into the server manufacturer’s business practices.
According to reports from *The Wall Street Journal*, prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in San Francisco are now involved, and early-stage inquiries have been made regarding the whistleblower’s accusations. While Super Micro has declined to comment on these developments, the stock market reacted swiftly to the news, with NASDAQ:SMCI leading the day's decliners in the S&P 500.
Delayed Annual Report and Market Fallout
This isn't the first time Super Micro’s accounting practices have raised concerns. In August, the company announced that it would be delaying the filing of its annual report, citing the need to assess its internal controls over financial reporting. That announcement caused the stock to fall nearly 20%, hinting that investors were already skittish about the company’s financial transparency.
Super Micro’s inability to file its annual report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on time coincided with Hindenburg's allegations, further fueling speculation that all may not be well behind the scenes. While the company has not provided clear explanations for the delay, the timing raises questions about whether the two events are linked.
The Impact on Super Micro: From AI Boom to Uncertainty
Super Micro (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) had been one of the major beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom, with its server technology being a critical component for companies such as Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, all of whom are at the forefront of AI development. The company specializes in manufacturing high-performance servers used for data storage, website hosting, and AI-driven applications.
Earlier this year, NASDAQ:SMCI shares hit an all-time high, having quadrupled in value thanks to the skyrocketing demand for AI hardware. As a key supplier to some of the biggest names in the tech world, Super Micro positioned itself as a crucial cog in the AI machine. The company's meteoric rise seemed unstoppable, with shares still up by 38% in 2024, even after recent setbacks.
However, this latest development puts the company in a precarious position. With a federal probe underway, the future looks uncertain. Even if the company manages to clear its name, the mere specter of an accounting scandal is enough to dent investor confidence.
A Look Ahead: Can Super Micro Rebound?
As the federal probe unfolds, the critical question for investors is whether Super Micro can recover from this blow. While the company’s technological prowess and strategic positioning within the AI sector remain intact, the financial and legal challenges could significantly impact its future performance.
Analysts are likely to keep a close watch on how the company handles the accounting investigation and whether it can restore trust with its shareholders. For now, the stock’s sharp decline serves as a reminder that even the most promising companies can face turbulence when financial transparency is called into question.
With no comment from either the company or the DOJ, much remains unknown about the exact scope of the investigation or how long it will last. Super Micro's success has largely been built on its reputation as a reliable provider of server technology in the booming AI market. However, if the allegations prove to be true, the fallout could be severe, leading to deeper market losses and potentially legal consequences.
Conclusion
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) now finds itself at a critical juncture. After riding high on the AI boom, the company must now contend with a federal investigation that could unravel the confidence investors have placed in it. While Super Micro’s role in the AI revolution is undisputed, the outcome of the DOJ probe will likely determine the company's future trajectory.
Investors should brace for continued volatility as the investigation progresses. For those considering a stake in NASDAQ:SMCI , caution is advisable until more information is available about the probe's findings and Super Micro’s financial health. Until then, the company remains in a precarious position, teetering between its past AI-driven success and an uncertain legal future.
SMCI DROPSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) is currently under scrutiny as it faces multiple probes and class-action lawsuits. These legal issues primarily stem from allegations of accounting manipulation and concerns over corporate governance. The investigation has been sparked by a report from Hindenburg Research, which raised serious questions about the company's financial reporting, including accusations of overstating sales, understating expenses, and engaging in "round-tripping" practices to inflate revenues
