SOFI trade ideas
$SOFI - Text Book Ranging Market - Look Out for BreakoutsText book ranging market with signs of accumulation.
This market had been in a downtrend since the end of 2021. As of May to 2022, the lower low swings became less and less steep, with 2 RSI bullish divergences popping up to prove it.
In Jan 2023, the bulls showed out their hand with a 25% plus week in 2x the average weekly volume. After testing the previous resistance area, the price has retraced to the new supply area. And upon retouching this area it exploded again yesterday. Now piercing through the key 50 EMA.
The price is still trading within the outlined range, with ostensible signs of accumulation. Time for trendfollowers and momentum traders to be on the lookout for a break of structure and transition into an uptrending market.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Backtested, Quantified Trading Strategies
$SOFI Best Fintech Stock To Invest In?After House Speaker Kevin McCarthy described the student loan payment pause as “gone” due to the debt ceiling deal, SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) seems to be a huge beneficiary of the deal. Since one of SOFI’s core business models is student debt refinancing and it is back on the table, SOFI can now operate at full capacity again after the collapse of student loan originations a few years ago. Now that student loan payments are set to resume soon, SOFI stock could be one to watch closely as the company might reach profitability in Q3 ahead of its expectations of profitability in Q4.
SOFI Fundamentals
Ending months of stalemate, President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a tentative deal to suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, ending the state of uncertainty that the U.S. has operated in for the last few months. The new deal means that the banking sector, which SOFI belongs to, can take a break as the U.S. reaches macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, the deal will also see the student loan payments pause gone within 60 days of the deal being signed.
Following the student loan payments resumption, one of SOFI’s main revenue sources from student debt refinancing is back on the table. In 2021, student loans accounted for almost 60% of loans held for sale for SOFI, but as of Q1 2023, student loans accounted for just 32%, while personal loans accounted for nearly 67% of loans held for sale and have seen a 46% increase in originations. Student loan growth stagnation can all be attributed to the pause in student loan payments in 2020.
With the resumption of student loan payments, SOFI can expect to run at full capacity again as the student loan refinance market normalizes. This also suggests that SOFI can expect to reach profitability in Q3 2023 sooner than the forecasted Q4 2023 as Q3 would witness elevated demand for student loan originations.
If the company becomes profitable in Q3, SOFI stock may see a huge jump in its stock price in a similar fashion to Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) when it achieved profitability for the first time in Q4 2022. Since then, PLTR stock has climbed by 96% and the same can happen to SOFI stock. If SOFI stock went on a similar run, it could break the $10 mark, which it has not reached for more than a year.
Technical Analysis
SOFI stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $5.1 and $5.51. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is overbought at 75 and the MACD is bullish.
As for the fundamentals, SOFI stock just witnessed a catalyst in the new debt ceiling deal that would see student loan payments resume within 60 days of being signed into law. As SOFI could now reach profitability in Q3, the current PPS could prove to be a good entry in SOFI stock ahead of its Q3 earnings.
SOFI Forecast
SOFI seems to be in a good spot as it has increased its personal loan originations as its student loan business was almost put on hold, and now with the student loan payments back on the table, SOFI can achieve profitability earlier than expected. In the event that SOFI achieves profitability in Q3, SOFI stock can make a similar run to PLTR and see it break the $10 mark.
SOFI: Bullish Head and Shoulders at a Bullish Butterfly PCZSOFI is currently trading and forming a Bullish Head and Shoulders at a shared confluence zone between the log scale 1.618 and the linear scale 1.272 Fibonacci Extensions which in both cases would be the PCZ of a Bullish Butterfly; While it is possible that it could go deeper into the linear 1.414 Extension I do believe that the action we're seeing from the price right now at the current level warrants a Bullish Entry.
SoFi having just over $0.5B Under Management is overall a much smaller bank than many of the banks we've seen come down and may come to as an advantage as they have less liabilities and yet they are gradually growing.
$SOFI - Ouch! That was brutal!Going into the ER, the setup was good. But the sell off after ER destroyed bullish technicals. It dropped below all moving averages. For the bulls the stock needs to climb back above $5.87.
$5.48 is current support. The stock might drop to $4.79 - $4.36 area, if that fails.
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Not an investment advice.
Upcoming earnings will reveal the strength of SoFiIn my opinion, SoFi's current position in the fintech industry is strikingly similar to how Amazon benefited during the dot-com crash. As the banking sector faces a crisis, I believe SoFi is poised to capitalize on the situation, much like Amazon did when numerous internet startups went under, leading to an influx of consumers flocking to Amazon.com.
As traditional banks grapple with failures and massive deposit outflows, consumer confidence wanes, providing SoFi with an opportunity to capture market share and boost deposits. SoFi's resilience, marked by a lack of deposit outflows and increased FDIC insurance coverage, mirrors Amazon's ability to emerge stronger from the dot-com bubble. I think this positions SoFi for accelerated growth in the midst of the banking crisis, just as Amazon thrived during the dot-com crash.
In conclusion, I personally believe that SoFi is on the verge of an "Amazon moment," where it can leverage the banking crisis to become a dominant player in the financial industry, continuing to innovate, expand, and deliver impressive results in 2023 and beyond. This parallel makes SoFi an attractive investment opportunity, in my view.
that changed fastWe have a lot overhead here but it's okay.
This is why we trade real companies hahahah.
When the chart looks bad, we go right back to the earnings and realize we're vibing.
I am in at $5.71 I want a dollar a share. Will probably trim otw up.
I really think this could yield me a dollar a trade, but we'll see. I don't mind holding her but I'd rather not.
Good luck