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SPY trade ideas

Will History Repeat Itself? $580 Target For SPY By Early MayThe market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway. Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year. Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note. Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions. Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings. The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587. Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX. If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ap769
32
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : EPP Flag Setup CompleteI created this video to highlight the current EPP Flag setup in the SPY/ES. It is my opinion that the market are about ready to ROLL OVER into a downward trend because of this current EPP setup. Once the FLAG forms (in this case a BULLISH FLAG), the next phase is a BREAKDOWN INTO CONSOLIDATION. It is my belief the current FLAG will prompt a breakdown in price - moving into a lower consolidation range. I'm highlighting this EPP pattern to help everyone learn how to use them more efficiently. Get ready. If I'm right, we're going to see a big move downward over the next 2-4+ days. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
32
SpyApril seasonality finally showed its self this past week.. You can always tell when seasonality takes over because of the volume and the fact that news doesn't matter anymore. Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble... Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason. I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume .. At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00! Now here's the chart TVC:DJI Very low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY. The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close NASDAQ:QQQ Yellow trendline is breakout White trendline is April 2nd gap close Red line is - 20sma So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming.. To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+ Vix Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX TVC:NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen. Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400 In closing... Spy supports are 547 (Price action) 543 ( 1hour 200ma) 537( 20ma daily) I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you see NASDAQ:QQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY to their weekly 50ma Opinion Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality. All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut. Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again.. This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do. So buckle up come May
AMEX:SPYLong
by ContraryTrader
21
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-30 : Moving Into FlaggingThis quick update video should help you understand how my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern could represent a move into FLAGGING within an inverted EPP pattern. If my research is correct, the next move for the market will be a moderate downward price trend that will represent the FLAGGING portion of the inverted EPP pattern. You've all see how bullish EPP patterns play out over the past 3 to 5+ months. Now we get to see how this recent SPY low near 480 turns into an inverted EPP pattern. This is basically the same pattern - but forming in an inverted mode. As we transition through this inverted EPP pattern, what I'm looking for is a breakdown move to create the new FLAGGING formation. This move aligns perfectly with my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern and could be a perfect setup for the attempted "breaking of the Flag High" in late May 2025. I'm watching Gold and Silver stay relatively strong today. So I'm seeing today's market move as a "reversion move" - not really a breakdown move (yet). It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the markets move into Flagging, as I expect, the big opportunities will be to ride the Flagging & Breakdown patterns over the next 30+ days before we move into either an INVALIDATION or CONTINUATION phase of the inverted EPP pattern. Price is the ultimate indicator - you just need to know what to look for. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
15
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Playing Into The Major BottomThis update highlights what I believe will be the last level of defense for price (support) on the SPY and why it is so important to HEDGE the markets right now. The upward price move has reached the ULTIMATE HIGH (I believe) and is now moving into a Bullish EPP pattern (shifting into the downward pullback, then it will move into the flagging phase). This flagging phase will be the deciding move (IMO) related to IF the markets attempt to break upward or downward near the current Fib 50% level. This is why it is so important to HEDGE all open positions right now. This battle zone in the markets (near the Fib 50% level) is not a guaranteed move higher or lower. Basically, we are watching the battle take place in live trading. What we can do is try to rely on the EPP patterns and other formations to help guide us to the highest probable outcome, but we have to stay liquid and fluid as the markets trend. Right now, I would suggest the breakdown (Major Low) outcome is about 70-80% likely. Thus, the breakaway (upside) outcome may be 20-30% likely based on my analysis. But that could change if the SPY moves above $555. Thank you again for all the great comments. I'm trying to help as many traders as I can. But this move to the 50% level is very "indecisive". So, I'm having to rely on Fibonacci Price Theory and other techniques (money management/HEDGING) as a way to protect my capital while I trade. This is a great example of how you can learn techniques (beyond technical analysis) related to what to do when you really don't know what the markets may do in the near future. The answer is HEDGE ACTIVE POSITIONS - or pull trades off (even if they are at a loss) and then HEDGE whatever you want to keep active. No one is going to laugh when you tell them, "I protected my capital by hedging last week" when they are looking at severe losses and you are NOT looking as severe losses. It is SMART TRADING. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me. AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap. Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA. For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go? There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like. Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market. The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement. Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580. … This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant. With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower. I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
4
Gambling Is Not Trading : A Quick Reminder to THINKI've been getting quite a few messages from followers and many are positive. I seems my videos are helping many of you learn better skills and helping you find profits from these bigger price swings. But it also seems some of you are really gambling for the bigger gains with 0DTE options and taking excessive risks (IMO). I want to urge all of you to THINK and to try to learn to adopt a more fluid style of trading. The markets will quickly humble many of you gamblers. They have a way of taking everything you have when you let your guard down. Start Small. Build Your Skills. Learn How To Check Yourself When You Get Into That Gambling Mode. Remember, The Market Can Take EVERYTHING (And MORE). The trick to trading is to learn to GROW your account without gambling. It is like being a Sniper. You have to learn when to take your shot and you also have to learn when to be patient and wait. One of the best pieces of advice I've heard came from a friend (who trades options). He stated. Start Small Book Winners Quickly Book Anything over 20-25% -- Then Plan For The next Attack. Think about it. He's been trading for more than 20 years and has learned many of the pitfalls over that time. And, he is the one guy that I've seen generate 100-200%+ a week (consistently) over the past 2+ years. If you want to survive as a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader (not a GAMBLER). I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
10
V-shaped Recovery SPY to 570-580 We formed a diamond bottom last week and had a false breakout to the downside that quickly turned bullish after it was revealed that Trump was just "trolling" when he mentioned wanting to fire Powell. Once we broke the soft 536 resistance we moved right to the downward trendline (drawn in yellow) hovered there briefly and then cracked through it. We ended last week with a bullish engulfing on the weekly chart and spent these first 3 days at the high. Good earnings kept the market bullish and in the last hour a mineral deal was signed with Ukraine. The bears have little left in the tank, Tariffs look like they are going to be solved in the near future and fear is decreasing. Promising news on Ukraine is turning the wall of worry into a wall of excitement. This is not feeling like a bear market rally, this is looking like the next phase of a bull market. The decline trendline from march can be flipped to bullish and we are climbing steadily on that new line, this recovery is V shaped. I expect resistance in the 570-580 range.
AMEX:SPYLong
by MikeSpy
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493. As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week. The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May. Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS. Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June. BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend. I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles. The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ. So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero. Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-1 : Bottom-104Today's Bottom pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward - trying to find support. Even though it may appear my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern will not happen as I expect - this is a very good lesson for traders. I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Sometimes, the markets do things that are not aligned with my research/patterns and sometimes the markets can be far more irrational than traders expect. For example, I believe this current rally is more of a speculative rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD. There is nothing I'm seeing in the Crash Index (or TRAN) to support this upward price move other than traders attempting to "buy the dip". Ultimately, I believe the current contraction in the global economy based on policies, tariffs and economic disruptions will continue to drive a consolidation, basing type of price trend, traders are buying into this dip and attempting to drive price upward on expectations of a growing global economy. Time will tell how things play out - but my longer-term modeling systems are still Bearish. I will be on the road with my father today - so I'm not going to be as available to answer questions. Watch this video twice if you need to. It will be interesting to see how the next 5+ days in the markets play out. As I stated, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. I do my best to try to help guide all of you through these market trends with my research and cycle patterns - but, that is not enough to guarantee 100% accuracy on any trade. That's just how it is in the world. No one is 100% perfect at predicting market moves. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation. Bearish Confirmation Triggers: Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours. Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger. MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H. Target Zone: $522–$520 Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap. We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure. If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues. As always safe Trades
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
2
SPY bear market?The causes of a bear market often vary, but in general, a weak or slowing or sluggish economy, bursting market bubbles, pandemics, wars, geopolitical crises, and drastic paradigm shifts in the economy such as shifting to an online economy, are all factors that might cause a bear market. One definition of a bear market says markets are in bear territory when stocks, on average, fall at least 20% off their high. But 20% is an arbitrary number, just as a 10% decline is an arbitrary benchmark for a correction. Another definition of a bear market is when investors are more risk-averse than risk-seeking. This kind of bear market can last for months or years as investors shun speculation in favor of boring, sure bets. SPY macro levels: resistance: 613 pivot: 480 support: 348
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options360
1
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 526.40 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 554.18 My Stop Loss - 512.11 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
4
SPY Setting Up for a Breakout? Gamma, Liquidity & TA Aligning 🔍GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)
SPY is showing an impressive surge off the 508 HVL zone, with a clean stair-step climb supported by options flow. Gamma exposure is shifting favorably: * Strongest Call Wall sits at 528–530, where we see the highest positive NETGEX—aka the Gamma Wall. * Price is currently testing the 536 level, and the bulls are targeting 549 and potentially 561+ if momentum continues. * Options Oscillator shows notable GEX alignment (🟢🟢🟢) and IVR 48.8, suggesting room for more expansion. ➡️ Calls are in control (48.6%), and no major PUT pressure remains above 508. With IV contraction, theta decay is less brutal. This opens the door for short-dated call entries (0DTE to 3DTE) above 530.31 with stops below 526.61. Price Action & Trading Plan
On the 1H chart, SPY has broken out from a CHoCH + BOS structure, and we’re currently in a bullish continuation move. * Trend Strength: Strong Bullish * Market Structure: In premium but bullish hold. * Candle Volume: Thin, but breakout is supported by prior strong demand. * Setup: Long is forming – waiting for follow-through. 🔑 Key Levels: * Entry: Above 530.31 * Targets: 549 (RRR 1), 561.53 (RRR 2) * Invalidation: Below 526.61 🧠 My Thoughts
SPY is building momentum and options are reinforcing the move. The breakout through the HVL zone, combined with SMC-confirmed structure and GEX tailwinds, tells me the path of least resistance is up. Volume isn’t overly strong yet, so we need to monitor follow-through and not get trapped if a reversal forms near 540–549. If bulls defend 530, this could turn into a "home run" leg into the week. 🚨 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1