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SPY trade ideas

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-30-25 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to create a GAP at the open. It looks like the markets may attempt to move higher as the SPY is already nearly 0.35% higher as I type. Last week was very exciting as we watched the QQQ and the SPY break into new All-Time Highs. I suspect the markets will continue a bit of a rally into the early Q2 earnings season where retail traders attempt to prepare for the strong technology/innovation/AI earnings data (like last quarter). I do believe this rally is due for a pullback. I've highlighted this many times in the past. Typically, price does not go straight up or straight down. There are usually multiple pullbacks in a trend. So, at this point, the markets are BULLISH, but I still want to warn you to stay somewhat cautious of a pullback in the near future (maybe something news-related). Gold and Silver should start to move higher over the next 5-10+ days, with gold trying to rally back above $3450. I see Gold in a solid FLAGGING formation that is moving closer to the APEX pattern. Bitcoin is nearing a make-or-break volatility point. I see BTCUSD breaking downward, but it could break into a very volatile phase where it attempts to rally (with the QQQ through earnings), then collapse later in July. We'll see how things play out. Remember, tomorrow morning I have a doctor's appointment. So I may or may not get a morning video done. FYI. Get some today.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
10
$SpySo I just wanted to focus on the next 2weeks of trading.. To summarize what I think will happened We make another high around 620 by End of this week. That high will most likely coincide either the Bill passing through senate or and the Non farm payroll coming out Thursday. Summer melt up seasonality is in progress. Historically the week of July 4th trades with really thin volume. Thin volume is hurts bears more than it does bulls. Imagine spy breaking back below 600 with only 50% of its normal volume (Won't happen). The week after this is the break between this quarter and the next Q3.. this is when I expect a corrective pullback to the 20sma or 605, they'll probably blame it on some Tariff July 9th related catalyst. 2nd week of July begins Q3 and the market will move up or down or earnings. From my experience, you rarely see Armageddon in the market before big tech earnings. So basically 620 this week at some point , 605 next week and from there Earnings season starts off with big banks. Some more trading advice I'd give is becareful with too far OTM weekly options, I expect at least 2 of these days will be terribly choppy. One of the main reasons I believe the market will now go higher is because of the index moves... of course you saw the how spy and Qqq made a V shape recovery, well the Dow jones and IWM are now catching up with their own V So if the Dow has 2-3% left to pump the Spy will atleast match that pump. This move could come next week or wait until the pullback and finish during earnings but it will come. I'll do a bigger picture and out look after next week's move. Some trade ideas I'll post here First one is NASDAQ:GOOGL Channel trade here.. I think early in the week googl heads to 181.50. If market melts up later in the week then googl could see 185.00.. but like I said this is a channel trade and the ultimate tgt is 190 ish . 2nd trade Tsla I think it's headed back to 300.00 or 200ema From there we will either bounce and make a Pennant or double top lower .. if you look, you'll see price has been bouncing of its 50sma for 2weeks now, so the short entry is below that Lastly, there is not enough volume to pump all stocks this week, so some will be red and some will be green.. to avoid longing or shorting the wrong one, have patience and wait 30min-1hour after the open for true direction before you trade .. Good luck
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
8
Statistical Tendencies in Market StructureMarket Disorder Involvement in financial markets occurs for a variety of reasons, including speculation, hedging, liquidation, automation, and rebalancing. These are executed by a broad range of participants, such as funds, banks, algorithms, and retail traders. These operate across different timeframes and objectives. The same information could lead to different interpretations and execution. This creates structural disorder. The market does not behave in a clean or deterministic manner. Behaviour is shaped by overlapping flows, unknown motivations, and shifting expectations. While each trade is executed with intent and structure, the collective result of these actions creates disorder. From the perspective of a technical trader, outcomes could appear no different from randomness. In practice, this is experienced as noise or inconsistent behavior. Randomness in Market Theory Traditional financial models like the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) suggest that price movements are random and not influenced by past behavior. In other words, markets exhibit no memory and each price change is statistically unrelated to the prior ones. In case this would be true, no historical data or technical method would provide a reliable basis for forecasting future prices. In such a market, price behavior would be indistinguishable from statistical noise. Apparent trends would arise by coincidence, and no persistent trading edge could be developed. A visual example of a chart based on a random walk. Price evolves through multiplicative steps without memory, reflecting the assumptions of the Random Walk Hypothesis. Multiple experiments have shown that when traders are presented with randomly generated charts, they tend to perceive them as genuine market data. This reflects a common cognitive bias: the tendency to perceive structure even where none exists. Much of what is interpreted as meaningful could be the result of psychological projection, pattern recognition, or hindsight bias applied to what is essentially noise. Randomness can resemble market data, which makes it difficult to differentiate between valid and coincidental patterns. Market Tendencies: Departures from Randomness Not all aspects of market behavior conform to the random walk model. In particular, certain patterns appear to be consistent and do not fit the definition of pure randomness. These patterns are not statistical anomalies in the dismissive sense, but measurable and repeatable features of price action. It is from these deviations that systematic trading methods can be developed. Volatility Clustering Volatility clustering refers to the tendency for large price changes to be followed by more large changes, and for small changes to be followed by more small changes. This effect does not imply direction, but indicates that the magnitude of price changes tends to show persistence. This helps explain why markets transition between calm periods and phases of high turbulence, rather than constant variance. The behavior violates the random walk assumption that each price change is independent from the last. A visual example of volatility clustering, with columns marking periods where rolling volatility exceeds a dynamic threshold. This pattern is central to many econometric and trading models. It forms the basis for regime-based strategies and conditional volatility systems such as ARCH (Engle, 1982) and GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986). Mandelbrot (1963) first described the phenomenon in the context of financial turbulence. Momentum Momentum refers to the observed tendency of markets to continue moving in the same direction over short- to intermediate-term timeframes. In statistics, this is shown as positive serial correlation in returns. In simple terms, recent winners tend to keep winning, and losers tend to keep losing. A visual example of momentum, showing the slope of a linear regression line over a rolling window. Positive values indicate upward movement, negative values indicate downward movement. Momentum contradicts the idea that price changes are independent and identically distributed. The effect has been extensively documented across markets and asset classes. Foundational research includes Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), Carhart (1997), and the cross-asset studies by Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013). It is a key principle behind trend-following strategies. Mean Reversion Mean reversion describes the tendency of prices to return to a long-term average after deviating significantly. This behavior implies negative feedback: the further price moves from its mean, the greater the probability of a reversal. A visual example of mean reversion, showing the deviation of price from its moving average. Baseline is centered at zero, with positives above the mean and negatives below. This effect challenges the assumption that markets move without anchor. It is most evident in valuation-driven models, short-term overreaction trades, and statistical arbitrage. Empirical support includes long-term reversals (DeBondt and Thaler, 1985), medium-term autocorrelation (Poterba and Summers, 1988), and short-term corrections (Jegadeesh, 1990; Lehmann, 1990). Conceptual Differentiation These deviations from randomness have different statistical profiles. Volatility clustering reflects persistence in the magnitude of price changes. Momentum is defined by positive autocorrelation in returns, meaning recent trends tend to continue. Mean reversion is characterized by negative autocorrelation, where extreme moves are more likely to reverse. Together, these effects define some of the limited but viable edges that exist within an otherwise random market. Strategic Implications for Trading Comprehending these deviations from randomness helps clarify two broad categories of trading strategies, each shaped to exploit different forms of market behavior. Momentum forms the foundation of trend-following strategies. These approaches are built on the premise that price movements often persist over time. Traders applying this logic aim to buy strength and sell weakness, anticipating that trends will continue. The core idea is that price is more likely to extend its current direction than to reverse. Common techniques include: Breakout-Based Entries Trend Pullback Trades Continuation Patterns Mean reversion, by contrast, serves as the basis for contrarian strategies. These methods are shaped around the observation that extreme price movements tend to reverse. Traders using this approach aim to sell strength and buy weakness when price diverges sharply from a perceived equilibrium. The underlying principle is that price tends to return toward its average following an overextension. Techniques include: Fading Overextension Range-Based Trades Statistical Divergence Setups Momentum and mean reversion coexist in markets, but their relative influence has variance. In some periods, one could dominate; in others, both have comparable effects. This balance shapes market structure. Recognizing this concept helps contextualize price action and adapt to the current environment. Interpretation and Standardization Many individuals enter the market with the misconception that technical analysis is a tool for predicting future price movements. However, its true value lies in interpretation. Technical charts provide information about structure and sentiment, which helps us take a reasonable bet. In a sense, there is a prediction based on the past, but with uncertainty. This interpretative approach, combined with a well-tested method, creates a solid foundation. Markets are not a math problem with a fixed solution. If they were predictable, all variables could be quantified and outcomes automated with precision. In reality, even systematic approaches require discretion and adaptation. Markets are complex environments shaped by uncertainty and disorder. Even the most robust methods encounter both wins and losses. It is also important to understand the role of perception. As humans, we are wired to find patterns, even in random data. We may focus on evidence that supports our expectations, see structure where none exists, or assume past events were obvious in hindsight. These tendencies often lead to overconfidence and unreliable interpretation. A related issue is overfitting, where methods that appear effective on historical data fail to translate. These may seem precise in hindsight but often lack the ability to generalize, usually due to selective parameter tuning or retrospective reasoning. The solution is not added complexity, but standardization. To separate random movement from meaningful structure, chart interpretation must rely on consistent and objective criteria. A pattern is not meaningful in isolation but gains relevance when it departs from statistical norms. This must be combined with a probabilistic mindset, where each trade is treated as uncertain and evaluated as part of a broader process. The content in this post is extracted from the book The Art of Technical Trading by StockLeave for educational purposes.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by StockLeave
2
SPY Prediction (with 10% conviction)Now that we are at ATH, whats going to happen next? Superimposition of 2018 bear market over today's timeline shows we rally to $625 after which we get a correction to $573. Rally continues onwards until we get another plandemic🤞 In 2018 we had tariffs 1.0 in addition to FED QT. This time we have tariffs 2.0 (or do we?) and a confused FED which probably makes the case for the same level of FUD. Economic and political environment changes but human behoviour does not change, altlest not like moores law. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
AMEX:SPY
by Alternative_Cerebral
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 6-24 : Flat-Down patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move in a consolidated downward type of price trend. Given the news that a ceasefire was initiated yesterday - and ENDED yesterday with Iran/Israel trading missile attacks and other conflicts, suggests the markets may react to extended FEAR today. Gold and Silver are both moving downward. I see this as a PANIC move in metals. When metals move into a Panic Selling phase, usually the SPY/QQQ also move into a panic selling phase. Bitcoin bounced back above $105k. Could be very interesting to see how all these moves play out over the rest of this week. Buckle up. Volatility is BACK. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
25
SPY Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 614.85 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 586.37 Safe Stop Loss - 631.68 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-27-25 : Rally PatternToday's pattern is a Rally pattern. And after watching the markets rally higher over the past 15+ days, wouldn't it be funny to watch the markets roll over and move against my Rally pattern today? You know, the way the markets are beating up my SPY Cycle Patterns, it just might happen. Gold is making a big move downward, which I attribute to a PANIC mode in the global markets. I believe this move downward in Gold is a reaction to some risk that is taking place in the financial markets. The US Dollar does not seem to be collapsing. The fear element is still elevated (as of last week's data). Maybe this move in Gold is related to the SPY/QQQ moving to new All-Time Highs - but I doubt it. We'll see if the move in Gold is really a panic selling phase or just some type of relief/pause mode in metals. Silver and Platinum are still trending upward. BTCUSD is stalling near the upper range I suggest would become resistance. As we move into the weekend and close out this week, I suggest traders try to prepare for what may come as the SPY/QQQ move into new All-Time Highs today. Either this trend continues higher, or we are going to get an immediate rejection in price. So be prepared. Get some.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
exposing the inner workings of the illusive 'black box'Black box reveal I was debating whether i'd ever share this publicly, but i came to an agreement with myself and decided to share this out of commission model. With the knowledge that comes with understanding predictive quant models, I was able to derive patterns the had arisen in the market via matching algorithms which gave me the ability to predict where a market was likely to open, make a high, make a low, and close on any given day where no news was being priced in. I was always told to keep my findings private, but no one wins if I do that, so I decided to share and the individuals that have the ability and care to figure out the puzzle for themselves can do so with this as a starting point. Im writing this post in one take so I apologize for any grammatical errors. In tradingview's LEAP challenge i've kinda been blowing my account over the last week and have just under 80% profit and no open positions with a week to go before it ends, so this post is also for people to look back and see if intraday trading can catapult my account. Good luck to all the participants!
AMEX:SPY
by oscar_malik
11
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-1 : Post Market UpdateToday was a very powerful day for the Cycle Patterns - particularly for Gold and BTCUSD. Gold rallied as the Cycle Pattern predicted a RALLY in TREND mode. BTCUSD collapsed on a CRUSH Cycle Pattern. The SPY Cycle Pattern predicted a Gap Reversal pattern. We did see the Gap today and a moderate reversal in price. But the SPY, as usual, continued to try to melt upward. I highlighted a very interesting TWINNING pattern in Bitcoin in this video. Pay attention. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Global Markets Bet on Dovish Fed Pivot Markets are pricing in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—approximately 125 bps by end-2026—due to speculation that President Trump may replace Chair Powell with a dovish successor. Investors caution excessive political influence could jeopardize Fed independence 🏦 Fed Governor Warns of Tariff Risks Fed’s Michael Barr emphasized that tariffs could trigger inflation and unemployment, reinforcing the Fed’s wait‑and‑see approach. Expect modest rate cuts later this year, contingent on economic signals 📉 Q1 GDP Revised Sharply Lower First-quarter U.S. GDP was downgraded to an annualized contraction of 0.5%, a deeper fall than previously reported. The revision underscores drag from weak consumer spending and trade disruptions 📃 Trade Deficit Widens in May U.S. goods trade deficit expanded 11% to $96.6 billion, driven by a $9.7 billion drop in exports. Trade gap dynamics remain a headwind for growth projections 🐘 JPMorgan Sees Stagflation Risks JPMorgan revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.3%, warning that tariff-related “stagflationary impulse” is complicating growth and inflation outlooks—and making recession risks more real 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 27: 8:30 AM ET – U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (Prelim.) Expected to reflect growing economic caution. The index fell in May; traders will watch for further weakness. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Stress Test Results Fed to release annual bank stress-test outcomes. Strong results support financial stability, while weak spots could unsettle markets ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #macro #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Stuck at Gamma Ceiling! Will Bulls Break 619 or Get Rejected Again? 🎯 🔍 GEX Option Flow Outlook SPY is grinding right under the heavy call wall at 619, which aligns with the highest NET GEX resistance zone. The flow is dominated by calls, and GEX is flashing 4 green dots, meaning dealer hedging could drive price higher if 619 breaks cleanly. * GEX Resistance Wall: * 🔹 $619–$620 = stacked resistance (Call Wall + GEX7 + GEX8 + GEX9) * 🚫 Historically acts like a magnet & rejection zone * GEX Support Wall: * 🔸 $614 = HVL support (strong bounce zone for 0DTE plays) * 🔻 $610–$608 = Put Wall danger zone 💡 Based on the current GEX map, if bulls can break above 619 with volume, the path to 623 opens. But failure to do so likely triggers a pullback to 614. 🧠 Smart Money Price Action (1H Chart) SPY remains in a bullish rising channel, printing higher lows. However, price is stuck inside a CHoCH zone (consolidation under resistance) right under the 619 level. * BOS from June 27 confirms structure shift * CHoCH zone holding short-term price action * 📦 Demand zone: 615–614 → where bulls stepped in before * Volume dropping = market waiting for catalyst 🎯 Trade Setups: 📈 Bullish Breakout Plan: * Trigger: Above 619.50 with momentum * Target: 621 → 623 * Stop: Below 617.50 * Trade Idea: Buy 620C or 622C (0DTE/1DTE) for a quick breakout scalp 📉 Bearish Rejection Plan: * Trigger: Rejection below 619 with spike in volume * Target: 614 → 610 * Stop: Above 620 * Trade Idea: Buy 615P or 612P (1–2 DTE) on failed breakout 🧠 My Take: SPY is at a critical pressure point. If dealers are forced to hedge more delta due to call buying, we could see a breakout. But the Gamma Wall at 619 is real — bulls must break it with force or risk another fade. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always manage your risk. 🎯
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
How I screen for long term investmentsIn this video, I’ll show you the exact stock screener I use to find long-term investment opportunities — the kind of stocks you can buy and hold for years. I’ll walk you through the key metrics to look for, how to use free tools like TradingView screener, and what red flags to avoid. This strategy is perfect for beginner and experienced investors who want to build long-term wealth, not chase hype. Whether you're looking for undervalued stocks, consistent compounders, or just trying to build your long-term portfolio, this screener can help. Hope you enjoy!!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by MindOverMarket
SPY GEX & Technical Setup – Aiming for Gamma Lift-Off?GEX Outlook (June 24, 2025):
SPY is sitting right on top of a major Gamma Wall at 607–610, with high net positive GEX and strong Call Wall stacking above. The 2nd Call Wall (609) and GEX10 (611) suggest bullish optionality remains intact if SPY can hold above 605. * GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢🟢 * IVR: 13.7 (low implied volatility rank, bullish) * IVx Avg: 16.7 * Put Walls: Strong support at 595 and 591 * Call Pressure: Builds up from 605 to 611 📌 This is a prime environment for long CALLs, especially for traders expecting momentum continuation through 607+. Price Action (1H): Smart Money Concepts Perspective * Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed at ~606 * Retest held strong near 600.15–604.45, validating support * Clear bullish CHoCH and BOS sequence with strong volume * Current candle consolidation inside a small supply zone near 607 (possible pause before continuation) Support Zones: * 604.45: First line of defense * 600.15: Breaker block retest * 591.90: Ultimate bear invalidation zone Resistance Targets: * 610: Next major target (2nd Call Wall) * 611+: GEX10/extension zone for squeeze 🔍 Trade Idea (Scalp or Swing) Bullish Scenario (CALLs setup): * Entry: On retest of 604.5–605 zone * Target: 610–611 (Gamma zone breakout) * Stop: Below 600.15 * Options Play: Buy 610C 0DTE/1DTE if intraday bounce confirmed above 605 or breakout continuation above 607 Bearish Reversal? * Only if SPY breaks below 600 with momentum + volume. Otherwise, dip = opportunity. Summary:
SPY is riding a strong bullish structure with GEX favoring upward pressure. As long as 604–605 holds, dips are for buying. Watch 607–610 for breakout confirmation. Options market flow supports further upside if volatility remains controlled. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights