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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 8, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Release: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Optimism Index for March at 6:00 AM ET. This index provides insights into the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the U.S. economy. 🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: ​San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET. ​ ​Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver remarks at 7:00 PM ET. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Forecast: 100.7​ Previous: 102.8​ Assesses the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the economy. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Blood in the streets, SPY looks to have bottomed, for now?I forgot how that old saying went, but I knew its time for a good deal. My first tip off that we might be at a bottom was fear and greed sitting at a 4 on Friday. Into the weekend I saw Cramer and friends calling 1987 crash and historic doom headed for the economy. I saw a stat saying that this was the biggest crash since 2008, covid not withstanding. And then I saw one of my favorite tells, I call it the comedy indicator. When things are so bullish that people can only laugh at how easy it is to get rich... its a good sign to get out. The same goes when joking about the depression and how doomed it is, it's probably a good time to get in. So SNL having multiple segments joking about the depression was a good tell to me that we were rounding a corner. Next I check some fundamentals, the S5TW is pretty useful in spotting bottoms temporary or otherwise, right now its sitting around 2-3% or 97-98% of SNP stocks below their 20 day MA. This is the level it was during the Jun 2022 bottom (before the massive run-up into august for those that remember, 18% in under 2 months) The 2022 October bottom, and of course the march 2020 covid bottom. Finally you got some basic chart indicators, accumulation/distribution showing that we are still at the 560 level. the McLellan which shows that the 2 day massive sell off was not actually as broad as it may have seemed. Then there is the classic Stupid Willy, who is tuned to -5 and -95 to avoid too many false signals, not only did it signal twice the last 2 trade days, today the smoothed line crossed the signal EMA which tells me buyers had some solid force at this level. The Bollinger Band also looks like it may start curling around and we finally managed to tap into the bottom of the band (briefly) but that tells me there is some good room to run and it may be that time. Overall I think this bottom is at the very least temporary, we should go up from here, complacency, hope, whatever it is should return. 560 may be too high, but I see us filling Friday's Gap down and maybe getting into the 540s in the coming weeks. Happy Trading & Good Luck
AMEX:SPYLong
by MikeSpy
SPY Battle Zone: Bulls vs. Bears at 6M Low ($510.27)📈 SPY Trade Setup – Key Reclaim or Rejection at $510.27 🔥 Ticker: SPY Timeframe: 1H Setup Date: April 7, 2025 🧠 Idea Summary: SPY has recently bounced from oversold conditions and is approaching a critical level at $510.27, which is the 6-month low. Price action at this level could dictate the next major move. Here's how I’m planning this setup: 🟢 Scenario 1: Long Setup Trigger: SPY reclaims and holds above $510.27 Confirmation: Retest and bounce from $510.27 as new support Target: Move toward the next key resistance at $537.75 (Y Mid) Stop: Below $508 for risk management 🔴 Scenario 2: Short Setup Trigger: SPY fails to reclaim $510.27 and faces rejection Confirmation: Lower highs and rejection candles under resistance Target: Drop toward $466.43 (Y Low) Stop: Above $512 or structure high 📊 Indicators Watching: Dynamic Support & Resistance Neon Momentum Waves – signaling potential short-term reversal or bounce 📌 Notes: $510.27 is the key inflection point. Momentum and volume confirmation are crucial. Be patient and let price confirm your bias. 🔔 Let me know in the comments how you’re playing this level – are you leaning long or short? 👍 Like & Follow for more setups! Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. #SPY #SP500 #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #MarketWatch #SupportResistance
AMEX:SPY
by Brian_Heady
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends. Key Observations: 🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels. 📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns. 📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback. 🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend. Key Questions for Traders & Investors: ✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction? ✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns? ✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move? Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Brian_Heady
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Review : POP PatternToday's pattern played out perfectly. I'm really amazed that the SPY rallied up to my resistance level ($520-525) and stalled/bottomed exactly near my $480 support. Absolutely PERFECT reflection of the data I presented this morning and from my research over the weekend. Now, if my analysis is correct, we move into a sideways consolidation pattern for the next 3+ weeks where price will attempt to establish a range (moving slightly downward in trend) before we get to the late-June breakdown (setting up the July 2025 low), then another big breakdown in October 2025. I can't tell you how pleased I am with the comments and messages I get every day. Some of you are KILLING IT and I'm so happy to be able to help. Remember, we are all trying to find the best way to profit from these market trends. So remember to share your success with others and let them know how to find the best tools for trading (on TradingView). Now, let's get busy trying to get ready for the next phase of this market trend (which will come in June). I'll keep you updated. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
19
SPY at the Edge! Will Buyers Step Up or Is More Blood Ahead?🔥 🚨 Market Structure Insight
SPY is currently in a sharp descending channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. After a clean Break of Structure (BOS) at 546.97 and a failed CHoCH attempt, the price accelerated downward and is now hovering just above a key psychological round level near $500. The most recent BOS confirms a bearish continuation, but the current price is sitting at the bottom of the channel, where a short-term bounce may occur if momentum slows down. We're in the discount zone—a key area Smart Money often targets for reversals. Smart Money & Technical Zones * Resistance zone: $546.97 (last BOS area) * Support zone: $502.19 (recent swing low) * Channel bounds: Top near $550–560, Bottom near $500 MACD is starting to curve upward while Stoch RSI is lifting from the oversold zone — potential signs of a short-term relief rally. However, there’s no CHoCH yet to confirm a structural reversal. GEX & Options Sentiment Breakdown * IV Rank: 121.8 → Elevated implied volatility, prime for option premium selling. * IVx avg: 53.1 → Still rising, shows fear entering the market. * PUTS Dominate: 84.7% of options flow are puts. * GEX Bias: Strong negative gamma exposure, indicating dealer selling accelerates downside moves. * Key Support Walls: * $520: Highest negative NETGEX / Put Support. * $500: Second Put Wall with -76.41% pressure. * Resistance Walls: * $547: HVL and minor call resistance. * $560: 3rd CALL Wall, minimal resistance at 1.26%. Dealers are heavily short gamma, suggesting large directional swings and continued volatility. Trade Setups
Scenario 1 – Dead Cat Bounce (Bullish Relief Rally) * Entry: Above $510 with confirmation of strong volume or CHoCH. * Target 1: $520 (first structural test). * Target 2: $546–$551 HVL rejection zone. * Stop Loss: Below $502 Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation * Entry: Rejection at $510–$520 zone or breakdown of $502 * Target 1: $495 psychological level * Target 2: $485–$475 (overshoot flush level) * Stop Loss: Above $522 Investor Strategy Insight
Long-term investors should remain cautious until SPY shows structural strength above $546. Until then, dollar-cost-averaging with tight capital allocation could be safer. This environment favors option sellers due to elevated IV, or high-conviction intraday scalping on well-defined levels. Outlook & Mindset
This week is dominated by uncertainty—rising global tariffs, geopolitical risk, and credit tightening all weigh on risk-on sentiment. SPY may enter a volatile range-bound phase between $500–$550, until new macro data shifts sentiment. If you’re trading SPY this week, don’t try to catch the knife. Wait for confirmation candles or volume shifts, and be nimble with risk. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Spy Bear Market Territory Spy need's To Hold $482 Or Its even lower as go as low as $474ish..... I would like to see us hold $482 to possibly take the long to $495, Theoretically speaking if we actually open up Monday in this range that's exactly what i would be looking for call etc..... But because the market is so volatile i most likely wait a whole hour to decide when and where to take my position, But other than that if we hold $482ish i would long short term day trades ext if lower than $482 I'm short.... AS always good luck and safe trades traders
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility. 🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns. 🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals. 📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase. ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 7: 🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET) 💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7 🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8% 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET) 📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K 📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2% 🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Friday, April 11: 🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0% 🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY with the cluster resistance rection! boost and follow for more 🔥 spy continues to break below the 557 level pivot level, I sold all my shares on the first break below last friday and have not added any back this week. that reclaim of 557 pivot level this week only led to a cluster resistance rejection which was another bearish sign, I dont like longs right now unless we reclaim 446. for now bearish action can continue. we will see I will keep monitoring SPY as always! GLTA
AMEX:SPYShort
by Aura_Trades
14
SPYAs investors, we must understand that in order for consumers to access cheaper products, sacrifices will be required in several key areas. Adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy (changes in the federal funds rate and balance sheet reduction) will directly impact GDP and real income. Likewise, consumer prices will reflect the impacts of inflation (CPI) and fiscal policies. Increases in labor costs (adjustments in wages and employment costs) will also play a crucial role in these changes. Private consumption (PCE) will be pressured by these dynamics, and businesses will have to decide between maintaining profit margins or passing these costs onto consumers. The key will be how these adjustments in prices and wages are negotiated, as the market seeks a new equilibrium between supply and demand. Prepare yourself, as these adjustments are part of a long and challenging process, but they are inevitable. #SPY #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by Ozy_Target
SPY: Week of April 7Hey everyone, Sharing the levels for next week. I don't have much of a forecast tbh, the thing is, in bullish markets its harder to forecast the long term, easier to forecast the short term. In bearish markets its easier to forecast the long term, harder to forecast the short term. Each week we have been up and down, taking out all highs and lows for the past few weeks owning to the volatility, and that is what makes it difficult to really adopt any forecast when most times we are just hitting all targets with the volatility. Here are some things for the short term: About 78% chance spy Retraces 528 507 is the reference target Based on the EMA 21, there is an 89% chance of seeing a bounce on SPY. Based on the EMA 50, there is a 69% chance. POC from last week is at 537. Will it bounce? Yes, I mean like I said, we take both highs and lows out each week, I don't really foresee this week to be any different, haha. And the longer term? So the real interesting stuff I guess is the longer term, but not that interesting. SPY is rapidly mean reverting. Right now the mean for SPY is around 481. This is actually within the forecasted levels for next week, so that's curious. In 2022, the mean was 350. It took exactly 10 months (from January to October) before we finally hit it (and went 2 points lower). At this pace, we are hitting it this month. Which is a concern. Why? Well let me tell you. There are corrections that are required to happen generally, just a general mean reversion, not necessarily fundamentally driven. That was the example of 2022. Then, there are corrections/crashes and cycles that are fundamentally driven. An example of this, for SPY, would be 2008. In the fundamentally driven crashes, for SPy those would be COVID, 2008 Financial Crisis, those surpassed means and let to a stark sell. COVID was pretty quick, but 2008 was really drawn out owning to the unfolding of economic events. The reason the 2 require distinction, is because technical and analysis are useless during fundamental corrections. You could draw fibs to the cows come up in 2008 and you would be bankrupt by month 3. However, in 2022, technicals and such worked fine because we were just doing a basic correction from getting too far from the mean. Interestingly enough, my comparison algorithm that compares the current year to similar years, for both SPY and SPX, has indicated that 2008 is the most similar year as of right now. This is a huge change from the results it gave even just a month ago. For fundamental sells, it doesn't stop until stuff gets resolved. As was the case in 2008 with the required bailouts, and once the dust settled from the multiple industries and businesses that went under. Then the market started a slow and painful recovery. The situation here is more similar to 2008 than the COVID crash. The reason being the main concern with COVID was economic shut down as a result of the pandemic. However, this was quickly curbed with modification of the work routine (industries working from home where applicable), the continuation of industries functioning and the huge stimulus that the government injected into the economy. Right now, the issue is a global trade war. In 2018, Trump only tariffed random items (mostly metals) on a few random countries. Right now, he is blanket tariffing the global economy. He doesn't even stop there and has to bring in my favourite animal, the Peunguins. God, Trump, what did they ever do to you? Leave the penguins alone! This is incredibly bad, its actually unprecedented. It is essentially a world war from an economic standpoint. And we are still waiting for the verdict on some bigger nations retaliatory tariff results. The global tariff war extends beyond just increase the cost of things, it actually may lead to a decrease in the US money supply, a rise in inflation and a huge cut to GDP for the US and other countries impacted. Trump could lift them, ease them or something. This would probably lead to some initial reaction to the market, but it seems the market doesn't even trust him anymore because when he kept playing those "just kidding" games into the beginning of the year, the market just stopped reacting to them. It is kind of funny. So the result is, it could be much worse than most anticipate, even myself. As of right now, my plan is to go long in the 480s, kind of on most things. Rebuild a portfolio. But as we progress, it seems that 480 may not indeed be the end. It just depends on Trump's mood at the time I suppose. From a purely math analysis: 481 is the mean for spy, we are following the annual bear market path which has as low as 468. Here is where we stand now on the annual assessment: And then in terms of mean reversion, SPX is the most interesting to take a look at: 4,791 is the mean. The last mean correction it has had was in 2022, same as spy: In addition, SPX just signaled a top/mean reversion signal. On the prospects of a bottom formation: None of my stuff indicates a bottom formation. In fact, we have some top signals just newly triggering, which is nuts I know but the reality. So that's .. good? Maybe, haha. Anyway, those are my thoughts. My suggestion is to continue to position defensively in anticipation of both up and downside next week. Safe trades! Also, for more deep diving into the fundamentals, sort of, consider reading this post from me if you haven't already:
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
29