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SPY trade ideas

Spy.. Where we standSoo... I will go in detail for you so you can see where my POV comes from.. A summary of this post is a bounce. Back to 525-530 and then a possible new low to 470.. Let's start on the monthly time frame.. I will show you the chart regular then I will show you log scale (Logarithmic). AMEX:SPY regular Price is nearing a 5yr trend support That support is at 495-500. There's a gap at 495 to close from April 19th 2024.. I would say if we were to gap down Monday below 500.00 that's where they will take this before buying it back up to 510. Now do I think the correction Is over here at this trendline support? I'm leaning at it's a 70% chance we will break this support before End of May. Why? Because of the sectors.. XLC and XLF is promising more pain to come.. imagine Spy as a car, the sectors are the important parts to keep things in motion . I'll get to the sectors later but let's stick with spy.. Now here's a monthly chart again but this time Log scale As you can see with exception of the Covid crash spy has pretty much channel traded this the last 14yr bull run Let's zoom in As you can see, the bottom of this channel is around 2021 high 477. So I think Spy is headed there before End of May , it could happen sooner but you have to factor in A rally and i don't know how long that can last. Also NASDAQ:QQQ monthly chart log scale is showing similar outlook Zoomed in NASDAQ:QQQ Lastly TVC:NYA Monthly log scale Same as Qqq and spy, headed back to 2021 high NYA no log scale So I've showed you the indexes now I will show you AMEX:XLF (Financials) and AMEX:XLC (Meta, NFLX) Here's XLF price is headed back to trendline support 38-39.00 by end of May; that's another 10% drop which supports my theory that spy will tag 470 Zoomed in XLF Monthly 50sma aligns with trendline support so that's your target. I think any bounce on banks going into earnings should be faded! XLC I can't hammer on the table hard enough about how much pain is coming for this sector and it's tech stocks.. compared to the other sectors this hasn't even got started with the selling when looking at its monthly RSI and MFI. Friday price stopped right at its previous ATH we are headed back to 82.00 which is another 8% drop on this sector, if 82 doesn't hold them , 60 comes next.. If you OWN meta on NFLX I hope you have a 5yr outlook because there will be pain .. Now let's get into the bounce, I think a nice bounce comes next week as long as spy opens Monday above 495.00 When it comes to being oversold one of the most reliable tools I like to use is the PRICE RANGE tool with 20sma. When you look at spy, you'll notice that in a normal market it usually moves between 2½-3½% from it's 20sma. As of Friday's close we are 10% away from it's 20sma This type of extension is extreme Below I will post the last time spy was over 8% extended from it's 20sma and you can see what happened the next few sessions June 17th 2022 Jan 24th 2022 June 8th 2020 March 2020 Covid crash Dec 2024 2018 So in the last 7yrs spy has on dropped more that 8% from it's 20sma 5 times and with the exception of the Covid crash 10% extension was the area where you saw price Rallied back within days to retest the 20sma. So that places us bouncing this week. Now the 20sma is fluid so even though the 20 is at 559 right now depending on how long spy takes to get there the 20ma could gravitate lower I think 536 gap close minimum comes before we break below 495. I will update this more tomorrow.. this right up took awhile
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
30
SP500 - Shiller PE RatioSPY Looking back we can see where the Shiller PE ratio values provided an insight into buying into the SP500 We have altered courses from the High Interest rates of 1988 - the lows of 2020 I believe we are in a new Inflation cycle. This could result in rising rates over next 20 years. It makes for a harder decision for buying the market. If they are not going to truly rally @ 31.31 then will they at 27.08 or lower? Will the market beat inflation?
AMEX:SPYShort
by superiorJaguar24882
4
(SPY) Technical's Signal Another -30% Drop to $350 Incoming!In this video, I break down the technical setup pointing to a potential -30% market correction, with a key price target of $350. Using trend structure, market volatility, and key support/resistance levels, I highlight why this level could be revisited in the coming months. I also examine historical price behavior during similar setups and discuss the factors that may align with this bearish scenario. Whether you're a short-term trader or long-term investor, this is a critical level to watch.
AMEX:SPYShort
by GiftedInvestor
6
SPY going down down downI just make simple technical charts, and have no idea about matters at play from leaders in plain sight as well as those behind the curtains. Things can only crash when they have been inflated. So far SPY is still in long term uptrend. Only when it drops below the thick blue lower line and stay below, it will be a down trend to me. RSI on the daily hangs around 23. Switch to the monthly chart and the RSI is only at 50 yet. Plenty of room to go down! Remember, the all time highs of 2021 and 2023 were around 450. Fridays close was at 505!
AMEX:SPYShort
by REDDLINER
1
SPY: Breaking Levels; TASPY broke down the Weekly demand line and now looking to break the Monthly demand. Looking to possibly test the bottome weekly trendline. Possibly a 530 price target and if weakness continues, possibly below more to 520 then 510.46 to fully retest that bottom trendline. The market has bene crazy, people calling bottom, wanting to catch the reversal. I mean, I would want to catch this “V” up too, but have to see if it keeps trending down to the bottom trendline. LMK what you think and if you have any TA, tag me! *Not FA
AMEX:SPYShort
by sweatytrigger
1
Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off – Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum. The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include: Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested) High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66 Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41 Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16 For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16). Critical levels summary: Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16 Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16 Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16 Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46 Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon. These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
Rollercoaster Continues For SPYMy overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 3 (pink), Minor 3 (yellow), Minute 3 or 4 (green). I originally had this symbol nearly complete with Primary wave 1, but the continued declines received significant wave 3 of 3 signals (pink lines in bottom chart band). It is still unclear if we are in my theoretical larger decline or if we are in a simple corrective wave. It will take at least another two months to likely achieve the answer. Theory 1 is my hypothesis where we are about to finish Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 in a multi-year market correction. This would see SPY bottom around 486 within two weeks and briefly head up toward 535 before continuing significant downward movement. Currently Intermediate wave 1 lasted 111 trading hours. Intermediate wave 3 is somewhat on pace to finish in the same amount of time around 17 April. Extensions based on Minor wave 1's movement could put Minor wave 3's bottom around 499. Theory 2 is that Intermediate waves 1, 2 and 3 (pink) are actually waves A, B, and C (white) in a short-term corrective wave. This would mean this symbol returns to all-time highs around the fall of 2025. Theory 3 places the stock in the third wave about to finish a wave A down over the next two months. Wave B up would last a few months before wave C takes the market to a bottom sometime around the end of 2025. All three theories will observe the same movement over the next few weeks with a low soon and then a bounce up. Theory 2 becomes the likely winner if SPY breaks above 576.33 within the next 3 months. Theories 1 and 3 will trade the same for quite some time. I will reevaluate this ETF once Minor wave 3 finishes. It should aid in providing a better bottom for Intermediate wave 3 in the next two weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
Market Falls comparison of the last 25 yearsBetween 2000-2019 the market had 7 big falls. Since the Pandemic in 2020, the market has fallen 2 times and currently experiencing the 3rd big fall. Although the current and last two falls seem big, percentwise have not been as big as the ones from 2000 and 2008. Get ready for the current market to continue falling for the next 2-3 months and it will still only feel like a 20% correction, nowhere as big as the 3 biggest falls from the last 25 years.
AMEX:SPYShort
by abner.amador
Tariff FUD is reking ports. SPY 505 First Stop. 460 Second.Trading Fam, It's no surprise that Trump's implementation of high tariffs would cause initial FUD. This can be observed in the massive spikes on the $VIX. What is unknown and has caught many traders by surprise, myself included, is how substantial of a drop would be incurred by investor uncertainty. Initially, it did appear that 500 might hold. That was a huge support. I knew if it broke, the sell-off would be deep. But I held hope that the market would hold above this trendline. It did not. So, yesterday and today, investors who held are incurring substantial losses. For those who were smarter than me and sold at or near the top, congratulations! You've saved yourself some duress and cash. Now, some are calling this the beginning of a longer bear market. I still don't see it that way. Honestly (and I know this will be hard to believe), I still see the SPY hitting my target #3 at 670-700 before 2026 comes to an end. Longer-term we still remain in a massive secular bull market since 2009 and to break this long-term trend, the SPY would actually have to break below 300. That is a long way down and I just don't see that happening, though as always, I definitely could be wrong. Shorter-term I am seeing two prominent areas of support. The first has almost been reached at 505. If I would have played this correctly, I'd be DCA'ing in my first load of cash here. The second area of support is at around 460 and slightly rising daily. This would be where I DCA'ed in another load of cash. However, if that broke, I'd exit immediately and reassess the charts. 300 is a long way down, but over the past 5 years we have seen some extraordinary market price action and volatility. TBH, even the best of us technicians are struggling to understand the larger macro-economic picture, but I'd wager to say that tariff fears may be overexaggerated as market reactions often tend to be. One interesting note is that crypto price action no longer seems to correlate and prices have help up surprisingly well. Could this be our first indicator that the markets are due to turn up again in a few weeks/months? Unknown. But I can promise you I'll be watching this all closely. ✌️Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
SPY April weekly forecasts - New stuff-This is an idea I've done in the past, but never posted on here. Sometimes it's pretty close to how things play out with variances on timing. Regardless, I want to see it as a journal entry for my dowsing work with all my notes with the chart. It may be interesting to other people as well, so I'm posting it. Dates are often reversals. I do think next Tuesday could be a bounce. I'd like to get monthly highs/lows on SPY/QQQ, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards atm. :(
AMEX:SPY
by JenRz