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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 10-7 - SPY Cycle Patterns RoadmapThis week, I'm trying something I started over the last week or two - a "Roadmap" of what I expect to see price do going forward 7-10+ days. Now, this is something most people won't do because it presents a "live or die" outcome. Either I'm going to be right (or somewhat right) about price action and can live with my expectations - or, I'm going to be completely wrong about all of my expectations and it will prove to be a failed exercise in the use of my SPY Cycle Patterns. So, at this point - you know I'm hoping price does exactly what I expect it to do. I started doing this about 2 weeks ago. I just started calling it the "Roadmap" for traders (tieing into the Plan Your Trade concept). What I'm trying to do is to show you how I use my SPY Cycle Patterns (and other analysis techniques) to try to stay ahead of market trends. And you can learn to do this as well. It just takes time, practice, and knowledge. So, as we start the week out in early October - let's see how this plays out and if we get any surprises with price action. I spend quite a bit of time going over BTCUSD today - pay attention. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note. The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout. The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs Dow has failed to make all-time highs Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs Russell has failed to make any new highs Oil rips on Middle East escalations Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong) I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries Major News this week -US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI) -Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY: TA for Tomorrow. (10/7/2024)Chart Pattern Analysis Uptrend Formation: It appears that SPY has broken out of a descending trendline and is now in an uptrend. The price has bounced from the $565-$566 support zone and is currently trading near $572. This breakout from the trendline suggests a bullish reversal in the short term. Volume Analysis: There is no major spike in volume yet, so the momentum behind this breakout will need to be confirmed with higher volume during market hours. MACD Indicator (Bottom Oscillator): The MACD histogram is slightly positive but relatively flat, showing that while the momentum is neutral to bullish, it’s not strong yet. Watch for a further MACD crossover for confirmation of a stronger trend. Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Resistance: $574.41 - $575.00: This is a key resistance zone where SPY may face some selling pressure. If SPY breaks above this level, it could trigger a continuation to the upside. Immediate Support: $570.11: The current support level. If SPY pulls back from its current position, this level could act as a key area for a bounce. Critical Support Zone: $566.00 - $565.31: This is the lower range of support. If SPY falls below this zone, it could revisit lower levels, potentially continuing a bearish trend. Potential Price Action for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario: If SPY stays above $570.11 and continues higher, watch for a test of $574.41 - $575.00. A breakout above this resistance level could lead to a rally towards $578. Entry: Consider entering a long position above $572.36 after confirming sustained buying pressure. Look for higher volume to confirm the breakout. Take-Profit: First target at $574.41, and if the rally continues, second target at $578. Stop-loss: Set your stop-loss slightly below $570 to protect against a false breakout. Bearish Scenario: If SPY falls below $570.11, you might see a retracement back towards the $566 - $565.31 support zone. Entry: Consider a short position below $570 if SPY shows signs of weakening. Take-Profit: First target at $566, and if the bearish momentum continues, second target at $565. Stop-loss: Place your stop-loss above $572 in case of a reversal. Directional Outlook Bullish Bias: The breakout from the descending trendline and the sustained trading above $570 suggest a bullish bias for tomorrow. The key levels to watch are the immediate resistance around $574.41 and the current support at $570.11. Cautious Bearish: However, if SPY loses support at $570 and falls back into the descending trendline, this could indicate a bearish reversal. Summary Resistance: $574.41 - $575.00 Support: $570.11, $566.00 - $565.31 Bullish Entry: Above $572.36 with targets at $574.41 and $578. Bearish Entry: Below $570 with targets at $566 and $565. The direction is likely bullish in the short term, but watch for confirmation in volume and price action at the $570 support. Let me know if you'd like further insights!
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
SPY is looking Very Sexy ! There is 1 more step to go ! N3 Confirmed!! The price is doing exactly what we had predicted (see previous analysis). Indeed, the price bounced in the zone we had predicted last week, creating an "N3" pattern. Now, we are waiting for the final phase of the N3 pattern, which is to reach new highs or new extreme. What do we need to see? This phase is of great importance because, if completed, we would be at new historical highs again. The Key is the Last Candle: If you can observe the last candle on the chart, you'll see it has a very long lower wick. I call this a buying pressure candle; however, we need confirmation with the next candle, which should have a large bullish body in order to reach the new extremes we've been seeking. So, we can conclude that by putting all the points together when analyzing this chart, we have a bullish outlook for the rest of next week. However, it’s important to remember that we need solid confirmation with a bullish candle to confirm we will have a green week! Best regards and success in your trades. Thanks for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPY - short term Head and ShouldersFollowing up on my last SPY chart trend, we have emulated that fractal fairly closely over the last few days. The chart before us now looks to be presenting a Head and Shoulders pattern. Granted it is on a one hour timeframe and anything smaller than a daily for a head and shoulders needs to be taken with a grain of salt (although it can be seen there too) I maintain that the current global narrative will result in a downturn next week. I see two support lines; 1 basically at the neckline and 2 around the 555 price point. I maintain that we flush somewhere around 560 early next week. After closing my 565 strike puts out last Wed I bought the same strike and date (Oct 18) last Fri. I’ll likely sell a few of them if we range at the neckline/support 1 and will let the rest run if we break down under 564. There is a second spider as we enter into the Halloween season…just a bit of fun for me😊 Take care, MR
AMEX:SPYShort
by Mr_Robbers
$SPY OVERIVEW ON THE MONTHLY TIME FRAMEAn overview of AMEX:SPY from a technical standpoint. This does not include any fundamental / economical consideration. AMEX:SPY has been in this rising channel since 2020. Each wave / rejection from the trendline / channel caused a 10 - 12 month directional move 100pts +. AMEX:SPY is at the top trendline / channel again. Could see an upward continuation of price in an attempt to hit $600. Failure to break through $600 could start the retracement / correction / pullback over the next 10 - 12 months back to the bottom of the channel / trendline. This would put AMEX:SPY at around $500, give or take 20 - 40 pts. This would be in alignment with what some of the more well-known analyst / economist has been stating about 15/20% correction. Reason for the margin of error is the last two waves moved an avg of 140 pts. $500 is a key level psychologically and from an algorithmic point of view. $600 is also a key psychological / algorithmic level as well. If there is a break of this level, market could see another 20 - 40 pts topside move before consolidation and then possible retracement / correction / pullback. This is NOT financial advice but merely an opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
1
$SPY $SPX seems like primed for a mega downfallNot trading advice. But seems that based on the chart's historical data and the visual analysis of trend lines, we are at a critical peak in the SPY's price trajectory. The exponential rise seen over the last several years has positioned the market near the upper bounds of a well-established channel, suggesting that upside potential may be severely limited from here. Additionally, the convergence of multiple support and resistance levels signals a potential reversal. Given the extended nature of this current bull run and past cyclical patterns, a sharp downturn seems imminent. This would align with the broader historical trends, where market euphoria peaks before significant corrections, as the price action appears overextended relative to long-term support levels. The likelihood of reversion to the mean, as evidenced by previous corrections at similar junctures, strengthens the case for an impending downturn, which could be substantial given the current inflated levels. SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by dark131313
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-4 :Up-Down-Up Pattern (Counter)Today's pattern is an Up-Down-Up in Counter Trend mode. Thus, I expect to see and Dn-Up-Dn pattern today. This pattern reflects today and the previous two days - as Down - Up - Down in range. Overall, I expect today to be rather muted in terms of total range. Price should stay muted, sideways and drift downward overall. Additionally, I believe the markets will be attempting to settle into support headed into dual base/bottom/momentum rally patterns setting up this weekend. I believe these patterns reflect a momentum shift that will launch the markets upward next week. Gold and Silver will melt-upward today - likely attempt to settle the week near weekly highs. BTCUSD is struggling to start forming a base near the 59k-20k levels. It will likely take 4-5 days for BTCUSD to actually build enough momentum to roll out of this basing pattern. So, today is a day to prepare for the weekend and for next week's trading activity. Sit back and take it easy today as price settles into the weekend's shifting momentum. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Technical Analysis For Tomorrow (10/4/2024)Trend & Chart Patterns Descending Triangle: The chart shows SPY in a potential descending triangle pattern, where the price is forming lower highs with a flat support area near $566. This is typically considered a bearish continuation pattern, suggesting a potential breakdown if the support doesn't hold. Support Levels: $566.00: This appears to be a key support level that has been tested multiple times. If price breaks below this, we could see further downside. $565.27: A critical low that might act as a trigger point for a breakdown if it breaches. Resistance Levels: $570.06: This is the most immediate resistance. If SPY moves above this level, we could expect bullish momentum in the short term. $574.38: A stronger resistance level from earlier price action that could serve as an upper target on a breakout. Volume: There seems to be a moderate decline in volume, which could indicate that traders are waiting for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern. MACD (Bottom Oscillator): The MACD shows some indecision, with signals slightly crossing, indicating that momentum is neutral to bearish at the moment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potential Price Action for Tomorrow Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): If SPY breaks below the $566-$565.27 zone, you could expect a move down toward $562 or possibly lower. In this scenario, you might consider entering a short position once SPY breaks and closes below $565 with increasing volume. Potential downside targets: $562, then $558. Bullish Scenario (Breakout): If SPY breaks above $570.06, you could see a rally toward $574. In this case, you might want to take a long position after confirmation of the breakout above $570.06. Potential upside targets: $574.38, then $575+ if momentum is strong. Entry/Exit Points Entry for Short: Enter below $565.27 if there's a strong bearish candle with volume. Stop-loss: Place a stop above $570 to minimize risk. Take-profit target: $562, $558. Entry for Long: Enter above $570.06 on confirmation of a bullish breakout. Stop-loss: Place a stop below $566 to minimize risk. Take-profit target: $574.38, $575 or higher if the market shows strength. Directional Suggestion Given the descending triangle and the overall trend of lower highs, the likelihood leans towards a bearish breakdown unless there is a clear catalyst that pushes SPY above $570.06. Watch closely for confirmation in either direction with volume to determine tomorrow's trade.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
SPY potential pullback With USA elections looming, geopolitical instability and wars intensifying in the middle east looking at the price action on SPY, currently retesting 570.00 region after swinging in the past two weeks between 574.00 - 565.00. Technical indicators show a possible buyer exhaustion and now a sellers market with investors taking profits therefore possibly driving price action downward. looking to retest support at 550.00 - 545.00. Our main resistance currently is 570.00 if not broken we could see price move to test support levels and below.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ruli1690
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY: A Critical Inflection Point! (D&W charts)In our last analysis last week, we had already identified a critical support point around $565, which is once again acting as a support, as expected. However, in the light of new evidence, we have to update the central point of the idea, and draw up possible scenarios for us to work on next. The link to our prevous analysis on SPY is below this post, as usual. Daily Chart (Left): Previous Top at $574.71: This level represents the recent all-time high, which has become a point of resistance after the price failed to maintain above it. Current Support at $565.16: The price is testing the $565.16 support area, which was previously a resistance level. It is now, for the second time, a crucial level to hold for the continuation of the uptrend. This is the most important inflection point for the SPY. 21-day EMA Support: The price is hovering around the 21-day EMA, adding more significance to this support zone. A daily close below this line could indicate a deeper pullback. Weekly Chart (Right): Possible Evening Star Pattern: The recent weekly candles form a potential evening star pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal signal, especially after a strong uptrend. This pattern is characterized by a small-bodied candle (potential reversal sign) followed by a bearish candle. Key Support Areas: The first support to watch is $565.16, aligning with the daily timeframe, followed by a more significant support at $539.44 if the evening star pattern confirms. Trend Continuation: If the pattern fails to confirm, a weekly close back above $574.71 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal strength in the current trend. Conclusion: The SPY chart is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows support holding at $565.16, which is a critical support level and inflection point for the SPY, as a break below this line could trigger a sharper sell-off. The potential evening star pattern on the weekly chart adds bearish pressure, and we should closely monitor the $565.16 level for further clues. If the evening star confirms, the $539.44 support could come into play as a downside target. For bullish continuation, holding above $565.16 and reclaiming the $574.71 level are essential. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-3 : Reversal Rally DayOver the past few days, I've posted 4-5+ videos highlighting my SPY Cycle Patterns and how these help traders plan and prepare for future price action/trades. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should prompt a moderately strong upward price move in the SPY/QQQ. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to rally up into the 572-573 range today - maybe a bit higher. The QQQ may attempt to rally up into the 487-489 range today. Gold and Silver are working through a Temporary Bottom pattern today. This pattern usually starts with a moderate downward price move (setting up a base) and then rolls upward. So, I expect Gold to attempt to move back up to the 2680-2685 level today, and I expect Silver to rally up to the 32.12-32.25 level today. BTCUSD is stuck in the Excess Phase Peak setup's downward (rolling base) pattern. This rolling base will likely take more than 2-4 days to resolve before we'll start to see BTCUSD move into the FLAGGING stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. This suggests BTCUSD will struggle over the next 4 to 7 days before resolving into a moderate uptrend (the FLAGGING stage) - leading to a make-or-break price move sometime near October 15-19 or so. That make-or-break move could be huge depending on how BTCUSD resolves the end of the FLAGGING phase. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3