SPY trade ideas
S&P - No surprise here! We were prepared! Now what? How can we get involved to the downside if we missed the initial dump? Well, here's how! Look out for guiding algorithms and keep in mind larger/higher time frame algorithms at play as well.
Even though we take the elevator down, you don't want to get stuck bagholding puts when a necessary pullback/liquidity build comes!
Happy Trading :)
broke long term trend. hold cashbroke long term trend. hold cash and buy when we hit the 236 line on the spy
Time to Prepare | $SPY Options Bull & Bear Week 1 March 2025AMEX:SPY
Last week's AMEX:SPY $595 Put 3/10 ran for 66% from $480 up to $1,420.
The last two weeks, the market has suffered a controlled pullback. So far it has been cautious selling rather than outright panic. While fear has entered the market, it has yet to reach capitulation, where there would be significantly more potential downside. The key level to watch long-term is the 200SMA on the daily chart, currently at $568.45. This level, which hasn't been tested in 16 months, could signal a Stage 4 selloff, a more aggressive and potentially prolonged downward trend.
Here are this week's AMEX:SPY Options:
(15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss)
📜 $580 PUT 3/17
Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of $584.50
Target 🎯 : $580, $574, $571
📜 $590 CALL 3/17
Confirmed breakout over $584.50
Target 🎯 : $590, $591.50, $594
$SPY March 4, 2024AMEX:SPY March 4, 2024
15 Minutes.
Yesterday retraced near 200 averages and fell.
So, for the fall 570 is the 1.618% extension which is possible as it is also 200 in daily.
For the day or tomorrow my target is 575 levels first.
If 575 is broken, we can go towards November lows.
586-588 is good level to short for the day.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for March 4rd
We have to levels in tomorrow’s Trading range to be aware of -
1. The 1W 35EMA and that’s at the bottom of the trading range. Really important level to hold
2. And the 35EMA on the 30min timeframe.
That’s it in the trading range but of course you can see a lot around it and I went over it all in tonight’s video.
Gonna be a wild one - let’s go!!!
SPY at Critical Support! Reversal Incoming or More Downside? 📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
Trend & Structure:
SPY is in a clear downtrend, with multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals confirming bearish dominance.
A recent Change of Character (ChoCH) attempt suggests a potential reversal, but confirmation is needed.
Key Resistance: ~598-610 (supply zone)
Support Zone: ~575-580 (current demand area)
Indicators Suggesting a Possible Reversal:
MACD: Showing signs of flattening, indicating potential momentum shift.
Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, increasing the likelihood of a short-term relief rally.
Volume Spike: Large volume at support, suggesting potential accumulation.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
610-615: Strong resistance area where gamma positioning is high.
620: Major call wall, indicating an upper limit if a strong rally occurs.
Put Walls (Support) 🛑
575: Highest negative NETGEX, meaning a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure.
570-560: Next major support levels if 575 fails.
IV Rank & Skew:
IVR 44.4, indicating mid-range implied volatility.
Puts are heavily favored at 112.2%, showing strong downside hedging.
Implied move ±0.33%, suggesting possible large swings.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
Bullish Reversal Scenario:
If SPY holds 580-585, we could see a bounce toward 598-610.
Ideal trade: April 590C or 600C, targeting a relief rally.
Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
If SPY loses 575, downside targets extend to 570-560.
Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 580P or 570P, targeting 560.
⚠️ Key Warning: If SPY does not reclaim 590 quickly, expect continued selling pressure.
🔥 Conclusion: SPY at a Make-or-Break Level – Watch 575!
SPY is testing a key support zone with early reversal signals forming, but strong put positioning still favors downside risk. The next sessions will determine if bulls defend this zone or if we see another leg lower. Watch 575-580 closely before making a move! 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
SPY Chart Fibonacci Analysis 030325Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 580/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries.
🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy.
investopedia.com
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 4:
🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️:
8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.
17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.
4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update for 3-3-25 : Absolutely PerfectThis quick little update is for everyone who follows my research.
Today was absolutely PERFECT in terms of my expectations and how the SPY moved so far today.
A nearly perfect downward price trend targeting the 588 level.
Now, we'll see if we get a base and a squeeze higher before the end of trading today.
I'm so impressed with my ability to pinpoint these type of opportunities for everyone.
Remember, trading is about taking the opportunity to position your assets for gains.
Get some.
And please share your success stories if you have them.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Spy $615 What? is it happening this is a short thesis road bk to $615 last time we were so close we hit $613 now my assessment is seeing Road back to $615 I do anticipate it open Monday around $598-$601 Max target we do have very strong support around 588ish which I don't think we see unless markets grab liquidity to wipe out calls and trap shorts Which is very common these Days.. I will Keep updating this is my personal thesis i think the correction is over and we are heading back to $615 Come Monday Morning Ill post and see what my bot foresees as well as my Price forecast to give an extra confidence boost on the thesis... as Always traders good luck and safe trades
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain.
I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price.
Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024).
What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security.
This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion.
By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026).
Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17.
This is a trader's market.
Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher.
BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin.
I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY March 3, 2025AMEX:SPY March 3, 2025
15 Minutes.
we had divergence in the last two LL at 583 and 582 levels.
For the rise 582.44 to 594.74 holding 591-592 is important for short term uptrend to continue.
For the fall 610.7 to 582.44 61.8% retracement is around 599 which is also 200 averages in 15 minutes.
Hence that is the first target for the day, holding 592.
Analyzing the S&P - Understanding algos on a fresh chartThis will be very helpful for those looking at a bare chart and are not certain how to proceed.
This is a somewhat advanced but also very basic walk through of how we can analyze the S&P and broader market in 10 minutes. I can do this for hours and get into way more detail as I do with my students but this will be a helpful refresher for those following my videos - which have already built in algorithms drawn - as to how to start from scratch and what all these lines mean.
Keep in mind however that I do not touch on creating and understanding supply & demand levels here which is a very important part of the confirmation process for actual trading.
Happy Trading all :)
Long SPY: Watch Key Levels for Recovery Next Week
- Key Insights: The SPY is showing signs of recovery after a substantial
decline, bouncing off critical support around $590. Maintaining above this
level is crucial for a bullish outlook. Traders should focus on the
resistance at $600, as surpassing this could ignite further upward momentum.
The external economic factors, including declining oil prices and
fluctuations in interest rates, are providing a supportive backdrop for
equities.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$620 and T2=$630. Stop levels
will be S1=$590 and S2=$583, providing a safety net for long positions while
aligning with current market conditions.
- Recent Performance: SPY recently faced a challenging period with six
consecutive days of decline, hitting lows around $585. However, in the last
sessions, it has rebounded over 1.5%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment
toward a more optimistic outlook.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain mixed on the pace of recovery, with some
expecting a V-shaped rebound toward $620 by March. The consensus is that
maintaining above vital support levels will be essential for sustaining
bullish sentiment, while any breach below $580 could trigger further market
pessimism.
- News Impact: The broader market dynamics are being significantly shaped by
external factors such as interest rates, which have recently declined from
4.5% to 4.23%. Additionally, falling oil prices under $70 a barrel are seen
as beneficial for reducing inflationary pressures, further adding to the
favorable environment for equities like SPY.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for March 3rd AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for March 3rd
Alright, y’all… I am still sick and still dealing with the fatigue so I’m not going to write a whole lot but here are the levels.
You know what to do with them… lol
And we will go over it all tonight.
Don’t forget to hit the “Grab this Chart” button under this chart is you want to use it.
SPY at a Critical Reversal! Will Bulls Maintain Momentum? Technical Analysis (TA) for SPY
* Trend Overview: SPY recently bounced off a key support level near 582-585, forming a potential reversal zone.
* Volume & Price Action:
* A strong recovery candle has formed, indicating increased buying activity.
* 600.05 is the next major resistance level to watch.
* If the price clears 597.5, it could gain momentum toward 610-615.
* Indicators:
* MACD is crossing bullish, suggesting potential momentum continuation.
* Stochastic RSI is approaching overbought, signaling potential resistance.
* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Key Support: 585, followed by 582.44.
* Resistance Zones: 600.05, then 611-615.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis for SPY
* Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights:
* Major Call Resistance: 610-615 (where dealers may start hedging negatively).
* Put Support Wall: 585-580, the strongest downside cushion.
* If price holds 590+, dealers may shift their hedging and push SPY higher.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank: 34.5 (moderate implied volatility).
* Put Positioning: 103.3%, suggesting heavy hedging on the downside.
Trade Considerations
* Bullish Scenario: If SPY stays above 597.5, it could test 600-605, with 615 as a stretch target.
* Bearish Scenario: If it breaks below 590, it may retest the support at 585-580.
* Options Traders: Watch for GEX shifts; clearing 600 could trigger dealer hedging toward 610-615.
Final Thoughts & Suggestion:
* Short-term traders should watch how SPY reacts at 597.5-600 for confirmation.
* Options traders can look for breakout confirmation above 600 before considering bullish positions.
* Risk management is key—tight stops are necessary if price rejects resistance.
📉 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence before making trading decisions. 🚀
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.
🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%.
🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Monday, March 3:
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.
📅 Wednesday, March 5:
🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.
Trading Economics
📅 Thursday, March 6:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.
📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.
📅 Friday, March 7:
👷♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
On The Maco Level SPY is screaming a crash is comingAMEX:SPY is basically at every metric for being over-extended. From the Shiller PE ratio surpassing the all time highs to the buffet indicator at al time highs, take your pick, they all say the same thing. The Chart's trend is dying and the sell offs have been the initial weakness warning signs that retail traders are missing big time rn. Smart money is clearly selling the farm rn and the volume data on the chart backs it up. SPY is a clear sell in imo.
SPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅SPY is trading along the rising support line
And as the pair is going up now
After the retest of the line
I am expecting the price to keep growing
To retest the supply levels above at 604.00$
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
do we bounce here and continue into higher highs?while I believe we may turn into a bit of a bearish market, I also know that I know nothing and will be on the lookout for price action to tell the story
bounce into bearish trend or will we continue bullish?Time will tell but here is my idea for a bounce / consolidation period followed by a break of lows and into a bearish trend.
