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Spy 580-600 by Early OctoberHello traders, I think with the ratecut we could be entering a bullish period at least till early October. I could see spy hitting 600 or at least 580. I still think it will go even higher than that after an early October pullback... and rally into/after the election. Will ratecuts due to inflation coming down and the economy seeming to be doing OK... at this point I don't see anything stopping the bull train. Choo Choo... Hop on board! I also show green Bull Full Moon and red Bear New Moon. We are in a bullish period till the next new moon on 10-2-2024. P.S. I think crypto is gonna run as well...
AMEX:SPYLong
by TheUniverse618
Need aggravated buying for next week. Without SPY 600+Unless SPY starts blasting through the 570-585 range early next week, we will be stuck going sideways. I thoroughly expect a lot of complacency in buying or selling and expect volume to shrivel without much push through to March 2025, in which case bear can start making a case and some kind of genuine rollover could occur in 2025. My guidance : Unless SPY blasts through 600-620 range within the month, do not get bullish as sideways will be the recipe for the next 6-8 months, before we could start approaching a downtrend or legitimate correction.
AMEX:SPY
by rook2pawn
1
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 568.10 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 557.14 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
$SPY September 21, 2024AMEX:SPY September 21, 2024 Daily. I still have target 580 levels. Then a big move after consolidation. 60 Minutes Uptrend Confirmed. For the rise 539.95 to 572.88 holding 560-565 is crucial for further targte 580 initially. 556-558 should provide good support as it is 100 and 200 averages in 60 minutes time frame. Now we have oscillator divergence. SO AMEX:SPY should consolidate between 560 570 levels for 2 or 3 days. 15 Minutes. For the rise 560.84 to 572.88 AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8%. Hence a temporary double top around 570 levels can be expected. We have 2 HL supported by oscillator. At the moment 565-566 should give a good entry point. In 15 minutes weak below 563 levels as 200 averages could be broken.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
3
due for a pull back? 10 years ago today the market started a move down that was 10% and lasted 20 days. this might seem insignificant but that was the biggest move down of that year. Below are some rules to this game as explained by gann. The stock market moves in 10-year cycles, which is worked out in 5-year cycles -- a 5-year cycle up and a 5 year cycle down. Rule 1: Bull or bear campaigns do not run more than 3 to 3 1/2 years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction. Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd or 24th month of the move, or in the 34 to 35, 41 to 42, 49 to 60, 67 to 72, or 84 to 90th months. Rule 2: A Bull campaign runs five years; 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month. Rule 3: A Bear cycle runs five years down. First move 2 years down, then 1 year up and 2 years down completing the 5-year down swing. Rule 4: Add ten years to any top and it will give you another top of a 10 year cycle with about the same average fluctuations. Rule 5: Add ten years to any bottom and it will give you the next bottom of the 10-year cycle and of the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations. Rule 6: Bear campaigns run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to get bottom of 7year cycle. Rule 7: From any complete top add three years to get the next top; then add three years to the first top, which will give the second top. Add four years to the second top to get the third and final top of a 10-year cycle. Rule 8: Add five years to any top, will give the next bottom of a five-year cycle with about the same average fluctuations. In order to get tops of a 5-year cycle, add five years to any bottom and it will give the next top with the same average fluctuations. 1917 bottoms of a big bear campaign - add five years gives 1922 top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say 'Top of a Minor Bull Campaign'? 1919 was top - add five years to 1919, gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year Bear cycle. Refer to Rule 2 and 3, which will tell you that a Bull or Bear campaign never runs more than two years in the same direction. The Bear campaign from 1919 was down two years - 1920 and 1921: therefore, we can only get a 1-year rally in 1922; then two years down - 1923 and 1924, which completes the 5-year Bear cycle. Now, look back to 1913 and 1914 and you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be Bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913 and 1914. Then note 1917 bottom of a Bear year, add seven years and it gives 1924 also as bottom of a Bear cycle. Rule 9: How to make up Annual Forecasts for any year. Take ten years back and the future year will run very close to the last 10-year cycle. For instance -1932 will run like 1902, 1912, and 1922. There is a major cycle of 30 years, which runs out three ten-year cycles. The 10-year cycle back from the present and the 20-year cycle have the most effect on the future. But in completing the 30-year cycle, it is best to have 30 years past records to check up to make up a future forecast. For instance: In order to make up my 1922 Forecast, I check 1892, 1902, and 1912, and watch for minor variations in monthly moves. But I know that 1922 will run closest to 1912. However, some stocks will run close to the fluctuations of 1892 and 1902. Remember each stock works from its own base or from its own tops and bottoms, and not always according to Average tops and bottoms . Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up weekly and monthly charts on them. Rule 10: Extreme Great Cycles. There must always be a major and a minor, a lesser and a greater, a positive and a negative; that is why stocks have three important moves in a 10-year cycle, two tops three years apart and the next one four years. This works again the five years moves, 2 years up and 1 year down, then 2 years up - two major and one minor move. The smallest complete cycle or workout in a market is five years, and 10 is a complete cycle. Five times ten equals 50, which is the greatest cycle. At the end of a Great Cycle of 50 years, extreme high and low prices occur. Go over past records and you can verify this. The number '7' is the basis of time, and a panick occurs and depression in the stock market every seven years, which is extreme and greater than the three-year decline. Note 1907, 1917, etc. Seven times seven is fatal, which makes 49 years, and causes extreme fluctations in the 49th to 50th year. Remember that you must begin with bottoms or tops to figure all cycles, whether major or minor. Extreme fluctuations also occur at the end of a 30-year cycle as you can see by going back 30 to 50 years. Rule 11: Monthly moves can be determined by the same rule as yearly; i.e., add three months to a bottom, then add four, making seven, to get minor bottoms and reaction points. But remember in a Bull market a reaction may only last two or three weeks; then the advance is resumed. In this way, a market may continue up for twelve months without breaking a monthly bottom. In Big up swing a reaction will not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in yearly cycle - two down and the third up. This same rule applies in Bear markets -rallies not lasting more than two months. Most moves run out in six to seven weeks. Seven days in a week, and seven times seven making 49 days, a fatal turning point. Always watch your annual trend and consider whether you are in a bear or Bull market. Many times when in a Bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, a stock will react two or three weeks, then rest three or four weeks, going into new territory and advancing six to seven weeks more. Always consider whether or not your big time limit has run out before judging a reverse move, and do not fail to consider your indications on time both from main tops and bottoms. Rule 12: Daily Charts: The daily swing runs on the same rules as yearly and monthly cycles, but of course it is only a minor part of them. Important daily changes occur every seven and ten days. During a month natural changes in trend occur around the 6th to 7th, 9th to 10th, 14th to 15th, 19th to 20th, 23rd to 24th, 29th to 31st. These minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks. Watch for a change in Trend 30 days from last top or bottom. This is very important. Then watch for changes 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms. 180 days, or six months, is very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves. Also the 9th and 11th months from tops and bottoms should be watched for important minor and often major changes. A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for seven to ten days, the Weekly the next important changes in trend, and the month the strongest. Remember weekly moves run three to seven weeks; monthly 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, before reversing. It is important to note whether a stock is making higher or lower bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, then makes a lower than previous year, it is a sign of a reversal and may mark a long down cycle. The same rule applies in stocks that are making lower tops for a number of years in a Bear market. Study all the instructions and rules I have given you. Read them over several times, as each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual practice, as well as on past performance. In this way you will make progress and will realize and appreciate the value of my method of forecasting.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Oppollo
SPY scalping insights for today's session (September 20, 2024)Technical Analysis Overview: SPY opened with a gap down, reflecting a bearish sentiment following the FOMC. This can indicate volatility at the open as traders digest the implications. Volume Profile: The visible volume profile shows significant activity around the $565.92 and $568 levels, with a large volume concentration in the $561.38–$560.83 range. This suggests strong support at the $560–$562 range. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance around $568.60 (currently price hovering here), followed by $570–$572.88 (marked by the upper volume nodes). Expect profit-taking around these levels. Moving Averages: The moving averages (20 EMA, 50 EMA) indicate price is hovering below both short-term averages, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. Stochastic Indicator: The stochastic is showing an oversold condition with a possible bullish crossover, suggesting that there could be a short-term recovery or bounce at the open. Price Action & Key Levels: Immediate Resistance: Around $568.60–$569, where sellers are likely to take profits. Support Zone: Strong support lies at $565.92. Below this, expect price to test $561.38. Potential Gap Fill Target: If there’s bullish momentum, the gap to $572.88 (upper resistance) can be tested, but the move should be confirmed with volume and momentum. Scalping Entry/Exit Strategy: Entry 1 (Long): If SPY holds above $568, look for bullish confirmation with a stop around $566.5. Target the $570.5–$572.5 range for exit. Entry 2 (Short): If price breaks below $565.92, enter a short position with a target at $561–$562, placing a stop around $567.5 to manage risk. Exit Considerations: Use volume spikes or stochastic overbought/oversold conditions for timing exits. Directional Bias: Given the post-FOMC gap down, there is cautious sentiment. A bounce to fill the gap is possible, but the overall pressure remains bearish unless buyers strongly defend support zones. Monitor the $565–$568 range closely. Today’s session might be volatile with rapid swings. Bearish bias persists, but expect possible bounces toward the gap-fill area. Tight stop losses and quick profit-taking will be critical in today's environment due to possible fakeouts.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-20 : Breaking Up/Down PatternAfter watching yesterday's rally phase (which I believe was a relief rally driven mostly by foreign markets), I believe today's price move will be somewhat muted. Yes, today's pattern is a Breaking (UP/DN) pattern, which suggests we may see some type of volatility event today. But overall, I believe yesterday's big price move was a volatility event, and today, the markets will struggle to identify a trend. I believe price will struggle for direction/trend today, and because of that, I'm urging traders to move assets away from the markets heading into this weekend. I think it is better to move assets into CASH and prepare for trading next week. There is no reason to attempt to pick a position or trade heading into this weekend when we really don't know how the global markets will react to news or conflict events worldwide. So, the best option today is to try to identify a few early trades, then move your assets into mostly cash and wait it out (till Monday). I don't expect the markets to do anything besides consolidate below yesterday's highs. Gold made the move up to 2635-2640 today - perfect. Pull profits today and wait for the next move. BTCUSD is a bit higher today, but I believe it will pause - just like almost everything else today. The global markets are still digesting the rate cut. We'll see what happens early next week - but today will probably be a stalling/pause in trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
18
SPY - No Pain No Gain - Where's my peaches!So taking some PAIN as the markets wants to rally. However I am still not really worried as I am of the opinion that yesterday was just noise, pushing players out and setting up for a pullback. For those of you following back when inflation was "transitory" I was telling my followers that it was not transitory that it was going to stick. The FED is generally lagging because we have dotes running this country. Yes everyone in Government seems to fail upward. Just amazing how we have such incompetency running our financial systems. Technically, I stand with this is a B leg of a broader correction cycle. Things are not all peaches and cream. Well this year the peaches sucked anyways, not sure why but they did here in Florida. Consumer Debt at all time highs is going to be a real driver in cutting into consumer discretionary purchases. Also starting to see a lot more discounts at the grocery store which is indicative of people going with cheaper choices. NY Steaks $8.99/lb, Chicken Quarters $0.99 /lb. I am getting Free Range Organic Eggs for $3.99 /lb. This means many are eating spaghetti and cereal because they can't afford healthy food. Also spending on dining out is down as well. I mean seriously, I use to go to breakfast and get eggs bacon, grits and toast, with a coffee for $6. Now that same meal is $10 and does not include coffee. Credit Card delinquency is at it's highest level in 10 years and rising. Car Repo's are up a staggering 23% and rising. (look good or buy eggs) Ford and Chevy offering 1.99% on their 1/2 tons pickups (they can't move them) Housing market is starting to become a buyers market. We have been looking for a second home after selling our rental, and literally had two agents at two different open houses tell us, make an offer, don't think its too low!!! So though houses under 300k or over 1 million are still relatively selling in our area, the 400-800k homes are not. This is evidence of middle class erosion or clamming up. In short this is a house of cards that will end badly regardless of who is in office. This will lead to more money printing and more inflation IMO. We are Fucked!!! So yes for now I will hold my short. I can change as the market may not be primed to pullback, but we will get that pullback at some point here. This does not imply sell your long term holdings. What I would recommend is build up some cash to have for better prices. And Lord Jesus, get me some good peaches!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by goldbug1
3
SPY testing key resistance levelsSPY today broke its resistance level set back in July after processing the rate cut. Other worrying signs to emerging though shorter term resistance is breached to the upside Longer term resistance line show SPY is back to pushing the limits trying to break above Last time we experienced break above long term resistance in July it was followed by steep sell off in August We should not be celebrating and jumping in on SPY just yet, looking like its poised for another correction. It is September-October after all.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ratchet-mint
SPY - Taking Some Pain Augghhhh Taking some pain with my short position, but not the first time I have been here. Going to see where we are closer to close of the day or perhaps tomorrow to see if I should close out. 1) I don't want to be short if this market breakout sticks. That could be really painful and I may just have to blow this out and take my loss. 2) I don't want to close out my short if this is just a knee jerk reaction, short covering or firms having to buy stock to cover short calls. So I will just be patient here and see how the day plans out. Updating as I don't want you to think I am hiding over a bad trade. Bad Trades happen, losses happen, I am indifferent to a loss since I stick with my strategy. AND YES THIS IS REAL MONEY NOT LIKE THOSE FAKE GURUS WHO CAN'T EVEN AFFORD A MARGIN ACCOUNT.
AMEX:SPY
by goldbug1
3
SPY500 $SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024SPY AMEX:SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $552.50 - $575.00 WEAKER BULLISH ZONE (PALE GREEN): $552.50 - $540.50 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish This was my analysis for the end of the day yesterday, forgot to post it. Price has already rallied fairly well today. The Fed cut rates yesterday 50bps, down from 5.50 to 5.00. Here is what I was looking at as the market became volatile when reacting to the news. Despite the market already quickly moving in favor of the bullish zone, I still think we will reach the top of that zone before any form of reversal or significant pullback. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, AMEX:SPY , fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility,
AMEX:SPYLong
by TonyAiello
SPY: Week of Sept 16Switching it up with a written post this week. It has been a very interesting market lately. Bear market volatility with a continued bull market undertone. The volatility has been stemming, likely, from the onslaught of economic data that has whipsawed the rate cut probabilities as fast as it has whipsawed the price action. As of now, we are back to a fairly optimistic outlook for rate cuts.. at least, a higher probability of rate cuts. If you check on the CME FedWatch site, you will see that it is split down the middle. The probability of a 25 BPS cut is...50%. The probability of a 50 BPS cut is .. 50%. If it wasn't so annoying, it would be funny, I'm sure. Over the course of the last 3 weeks, we have went from 40% probability of a 50 BPS cut, to sub 40, to over 50 and now to 50. And really what it comes down to is what this rate cut actually is, 25 or 50? Market is expecting, from my understanding, a 50 BPS cut. Anything below that will likely cause further selling. However, getting a 50 BPS cut will resume the bull market thesis per norm. My bet is 50 at this point because there are still a tad bit more bullish indications than bearish, i.e. that still unhit high prob on SPX which puts SPY above 570. Anyway, as I am not a fundamental analyst and all of these fundamentals BORE ME TO DEATH, let's get into what math, models and projections say for next week! Outlook for next week is Bullish with a hint of whipsaw. Makes sense given the fact that this is the long anticipated week of the rate cut announcement! We also have came so close yesterday (Friday) to hitting that high prob target on the month of 563, but it just fell short: This target has to be hit, the probability we don't hit it is 3%. The ARIMA outlook for next week is positive and has us uptrending: At day 5, arima has the 95% UCL (95% probability we close below) at 595, and the 95% LCL (95% probability we close above) at 564. That's a HELL of an aggressive forecast for ARIMA, essentially saying we are closing the week next week in the 560s if all goes to plan. I have to say, I am skeptical, but ARIMA has always done me well, so I will be mindful of these levels for sure. Our generic price targets are in the main chart above, but essentially the forecasted high for next week, assuming a bullish thesis, is 569. And since 69 is my favourite number, then I suspect its going to be the one. The forecasted low, assuming bearish, is 552. Both price targets are possible given the outlook of bullish whipsaw, so keep that in mind. And at the end of the day it really does lean into the fundamentals this week. You really need to pay attention to that rate decision. All in all, those are my thoughts. Once market opens I will have a whole slew of new data and probs, so can update if anything is particularly interesting then. Otherwise, safe trades and have a great weekend!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Steversteves
8
SPY After FOMC TA for 9/18/2024FOMC release, a few key points emerge for scalping the next day: Price Levels: Support Zones: 561.38: Strong area of support shown by volume shelf on the volume profile. Buyers have stepped in around this level, making it crucial for intraday scalping. 560.83: Another support level where substantial volume has accumulated. Resistance Levels: 568.68: Marked as the high, which could act as the upper resistance. If SPY moves into a bullish momentum, this would be a key profit-taking zone. Volume Profile: The volume profile shows heavy volume accumulation between 560-561, indicating consolidation around this area. A breakout or breakdown from this level will likely lead to stronger price movement. Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI shows a bullish crossover near oversold conditions, indicating potential upside momentum for tomorrow. This aligns with SPY’s bounce during the FOMC session, suggesting that bulls are gaining some control. FOMC Impact and Direction: After FOMC announcements, SPY tends to be more volatile as traders digest the news. The current chart suggests a neutral to bullish bias heading into tomorrow. SPY bounced back from the 561 support, and if the momentum continues, the next key level to watch would be 565 and then 568.68 for potential breakouts. Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: Entry: Around 563.50 - 564, which is close to the support/resistance flip area after the FOMC reaction. Use tighter stop losses to limit risk. Exit 1: 565.50 - 566 (quick profit target if resistance holds). Exit 2: 568.68 (if momentum is strong, this level could be tested). Stop-loss: Below 561.50, to protect from downside volatility. Bearish Scenario (if there's a gap down): Entry: Around 561, just below the volume shelf. If SPY breaks below this zone, there could be a sharp sell-off. Exit 1: 560.00, which is a psychological level, aligning with volume gaps. Exit 2: 558.50, a lower level where buyers might step in. Stop-loss: Above 564, to avoid whipsaw losses. Thought Process: Upside Momentum: Given the bullish crossover on the stochastic and the bounce from key support during the FOMC, it’s likely SPY will test 565+ levels, though this could depend on overnight futures and early morning sentiment. Watch for Breakouts/Breakdowns: Pay attention to how SPY reacts around the 561-564 range for clearer direction tomorrow. Use tight stops and react to price action as liquidity from FOMC can cause unexpected spikes or drops.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts. In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs. Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation). What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice. Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe). Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event. There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders. Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events. Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions). Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly. I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days. Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up. So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision. While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%. I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021. Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now. In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief. We'll just have to wait and see what happens today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2