SPY trade ideas
Spy Short 540-530the chart provides the most easiest trade to follow! A swing trade, i project this trade to take 4 months to play out... Shorting at 575 level which I have falling all the way down to the 530 level .. Which then I will Be going long till January for target of 600... good luck traders
Fork in the road... SPX EquitiesGeneral historic trends show printer money injection as a stimulant of equity valuations, with historic possibilities of repeating as well as a none money injection paths shown below.
Whilst i enjoy a bullish market over many chart observations we have to conclude a retest of lower support before we plan to go higher. If market is left to its own devices it will flush bad debt out of the economy causing a large correction but a healthy stable recovery after the fire.
I spy a short opportunity [SPY, Short, Very-short term]For a very short-term, I see a decent trade in SPY. Once the gap fills on the upside around 571, a short can be taken with a risk-reward of 1:2 or better.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-23 : GAP Breakaway PatternToday, I believe the SPY will consolidate downward after last week's Fed rate cut. I believe the next move for the SPY/QQQ will be higher, but I feel the markets need a pause phase to settle before moving into the rally phase near Wednesday (9-25).
Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver will pause in early trading this week, then move into a continued rally phase as the markets digest the Fed rate cut.
Remember, this 50bp cut won't translate into any real immediate move of 2-4%. The way the markets work is they transition into the opportunities created by the rate cut. That means we'll see technology and speculative stocks attempt to bounce higher going into October 14-15 - maybe a bit further.
But, I do expect a wave of selling to hit just before the elections - so I'm warning everyone to stay cautious after October 11-14 as I believe the likelihood of a moderate Flash-Crash (Deep-V) type of event is very high.
Right now, the markets seem like they want to settle and attempt to break away from recent resistance areas. This is more evident on the QQQ chart.
Your opportunity to buy into lows over the next 2-3 days will allow you to really benefit from the next upward rally phase.
BTCUSD appears to be stalling/topping and will likely roll downward towards the 58k to 60k level over this same time. BTCUSD needs to settle into the next low before attempting to make another move higher (probably very late in October - after October 25-28).
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY LOVERS ! NEW ALL TIME HIGHS But be very careful ! Check hereFINALLY HERE ! NEW ALL TIME HIGHS !
But wait!!! do you really Trust those 2 last Dojis ?
Here are 2 quick scenarios to analyze for the week:
Scenario #1 (Green Line): The price may pull back to bounce off the order block zone I have marked in white, which we know as the institutional block where there was a lot of liquidity.
I call this pattern in my trading system "N3" as it consists of 1 breakout + 1 pullback + 1 trend decision.
Scenario #2 (Red Line): Always considering our active order block zone, the price may break through the block with strong momentum, confirming another pullback or bearish market for several days. In this case, AGAIN, the price could fall back to our buyer pressure zone (blue zone), where higher buying pressure volume has been shown. NOTE: All of this depends on the bearish strength the market carries; we can tell if the market will break downward by simply observing bearish volumetric candles or seeing a lot of active bearish volume.
But for now, we can't do anything as long as the price remains within our bullish channel, which we'll keep monitoring throughout the week!
The decision will become very clear once the price makes the choice to break out of my bullish channel.
Best regards, and a million thanks for supporting my analysis!
SPY: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
SPY
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell SPY
Entry - 568.10
Stop - 575.50
Take - 553.11
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Key Differences Between Trading and InvestingTrading vs. Investing: Key Differences and Practical Insights
Trading and investing are often confused, but understanding their differences is essential for success in financial markets. Both terms refer to distinct strategies with unique objectives and methods. In this guide, we break down the differences between the two, explain why they matter, and provide practical tips to help you decide which approach best suits your financial goals and risk tolerance.
What is Trading vs. What is Investing?
Trading involves buying and selling financial instruments such as stocks, commodities, or currencies over short periods. These timeframes could range from seconds to days or weeks, and the goal is to take advantage of small price fluctuations for quick profits. Traders often rely on technical analysis and market trends to time their trades effectively.
Investing, on the other hand, is a long-term strategy. Investors purchase assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate with the expectation that these will appreciate in value over time. They are less concerned with short-term price movements and more focused on broader economic trends and company fundamentals, aiming to build wealth over months, years, or even decades.
The Essence of Investing: Long-Term Wealth
Investing is all about patience. Investors buy assets with the intention of holding them through market ups and downs, ultimately benefiting from compounding returns. For instance, if you invest $10,000 with an average annual return of 7%, your investment could grow to nearly $20,000 in ten years through compounding alone.
To mitigate risks, successful investors diversify their portfolios. Spreading investments across different sectors or asset types (e.g., stocks, bonds, and real estate) helps cushion against downturns in any one market. Investors focus on fundamentals—like company earnings, dividends, and economic conditions—rather than short-term price movements.
The Fast-Paced World of Trading
In contrast, trading is fast-paced and focuses on short-term market movements. Traders aim to capitalize on small, rapid price fluctuations. For example, a trader might buy tech stocks when prices drop 3% in the morning and sell them by afternoon for a quick 5% gain. Unlike investors, traders are not interested in holding assets for the long term. Instead, they react to market news, economic reports, and even political events.
Trading can be especially profitable in volatile markets such as cryptocurrencies or commodities, where price swings occur rapidly. However, this fast-paced environment means traders face higher risks. They must make quick decisions and often rely on technical analysis, such as studying price charts and volume patterns.
Here, we emphasize the importance of risk management and emotional discipline in trading. Successful traders develop a well-thought-out strategy and stick to it, even during moments of market volatility.
Key Differences Between Trading and Investing
To better understand these approaches, here are the key differences between trading and investing:
Time Horizon:
Investing: Long-term (years to decades)
Trading: Short-term (seconds to months)
Risk Tolerance:
Investing: Lower risk due to a longer time horizon
Trading: Higher risk due to volatility and frequent transactions
Profit Objective:
Investing: Building long-term wealth through appreciation
Trading: Making short-term profits from price movements
Decision-Making:
Investing: Based on fundamentals and long-term trends
Trading: Based on technical analysis and short-term market sentiment
For example, during a market downturn, investors might hold onto their stocks, confident in a long-term recovery. Traders, however, may sell quickly to avoid losses, as they are focused on short-term price movements. Including real-world examples like these highlights the importance of choosing the right approach based on your goals.
The Psychological Battle in Trading
While both trading and investing require market knowledge, trading demands a sharper psychological edge. In trading, emotions like fear, greed, and impatience can easily derail a strategy. Traders must learn to stay calm and disciplined in fast-moving markets. Common mistakes, such as becoming emotionally attached to a losing trade, can result in significant financial losses.
Practical strategies for controlling emotions in trading include:
Setting Clear Stop-Loss Levels: This ensures that you minimize potential losses by automatically selling an asset if it drops below a pre-set price.
Sticking to a Trading Plan: Develop a strategy and follow it diligently, regardless of market conditions.
Mindfulness and Reflection: Regularly assess your emotional state to avoid impulsive decisions.
Here, we emphasize the importance of emotional discipline, risk management, and consistent evaluation of strategies to help traders succeed.
Investors Have Time on Their Side
Investors benefit from the luxury of time. They aren’t focused on short-term fluctuations, so they can ride out market volatility without panicking. For example, when the stock market drops, an investor might hold onto their assets, knowing that markets generally recover over the long term. This long-term approach allows investors to avoid the emotional rollercoaster that comes with short-term trading.
Investors also focus on the big picture—macroeconomic trends, industry health, and the performance of individual companies. They are less concerned with daily price movements and more focused on overall growth over time.
Can You Be Both a Trader and an Investor?
Yes, it’s possible to adopt both strategies, but it requires discipline to keep the two approaches separate. Some people allocate a portion of their portfolio to long-term investments while actively trading with another portion. For instance, you could invest in index funds for steady, long-term growth while also trading tech stocks for short-term gains.
However, it’s crucial not to confuse the two. Mixing a long-term investment mindset with a trading strategy can lead to poor decision-making, such as holding onto a losing trade in the hope that it will eventually recover.
Final Thoughts: Balancing Trading and Investing
The key to success in both trading and investing lies in understanding your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Here, we focus on helping traders navigate fast-paced markets with precision and discipline. However, we also recognize the value of long-term investing as a strategy for building wealth.
If you’re looking to balance both strategies, consider:
Allocating Capital: Divide your portfolio between long-term investments and short-term trades.
Setting Clear Goals: Know what you want to achieve with each strategy.
Reviewing Your Portfolio: Regularly assess both your trading and investing strategies to ensure they align with your financial objectives.
Whether you’re aiming for long-term wealth through investing or seeking short-term gains through trading, understanding the differences between these two approaches is essential for success.
Master the Trading Mindset: Lessons from Trading in the ZoneTrading in the Zone by Mark Douglas is widely regarded as one of the most important books for traders seeking long-term success. The book emphasizes that consistent profitability in trading is not only about mastering strategies or market knowledge but, more importantly, about trading mindset, mastering your own mind. Many traders focus purely on technical or fundamental analysis, but Douglas insists that psychological discipline is what separates successful traders from the rest.
By understanding the emotional and mental aspects of trading, you can turn potential obstacles into strengths.
Why Most Traders Struggle: The Illusion of Market Control
One of the core ideas in Trading in the Zone is that many traders enter the market under the false assumption that they can control outcomes if they make the right predictions. This mindset is deeply flawed. The financial markets are inherently unpredictable. Even with the best analysis, there are countless factors influencing price movements that are beyond any trader’s control.
Key Lesson: Embrace Uncertainty
Douglas emphasizes that successful traders must understand that the market is governed by probabilities, not certainties. You will never be able to predict the market with 100% accuracy, and that’s okay. The goal isn’t to be right every time, but to develop an approach that gives you a statistical edge—one that ensures you come out profitable over time, even when some trades fail.
Think of the market as a casino: while the house doesn’t win every game, its edge ensures that over time, it’s consistently profitable. Similarly, traders need to focus on building a system that works across a large number of trades, rather than getting caught up in trying to control individual outcomes.
Building a Winning Attitude: The Process vs. The Outcome
A major theme in Trading in the Zone is the need to shift your mindset from being outcome-driven to being process-driven. Most traders make the mistake of evaluating their performance based on whether they won or lost an individual trade. This creates a dangerous emotional cycle, where wins create overconfidence and losses spark fear or frustration.
Key Lesson: Detach from Individual Results
Douglas teaches that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Consistent success comes from focusing on the process, not individual trades. You must follow your plan and rules consistently, regardless of the outcome of a single trade. Winning trades don’t always mean you followed your plan, and losing trades don’t necessarily indicate failure. Instead, long-term success comes from disciplined execution of your edge.
By focusing on process over profits, traders can eliminate the emotional highs and lows that lead to inconsistency. This mental shift helps you stay level-headed, even when things don’t go your way.
The Role of Beliefs in Trading: How Your Mindset Shapes Your Actions
Our beliefs influence how we behave in the market. If you have subconscious fears about losing money, or if you believe that being wrong is a sign of failure, these beliefs will manifest in your trading actions. You might hesitate to pull the trigger on a trade, cut winners too early, or hold onto losing positions because you’re afraid to admit defeat.
Key Lesson: Reprogram Your Mindset
In Trading in the Zone, Douglas explains that you must reprogram your mindset to align with the realities of trading. Accept that losses are part of the game. Successful traders understand that losses are inevitable, and they don’t let individual losses affect their confidence. Trading success comes from building a set of beliefs that supports objective decision-making.
For example:
Limiting belief: “I can’t afford to lose money.”
Empowering belief: “Losses are a natural part of trading; my edge will prevail over time.”
By changing these internal beliefs, traders can reduce emotional interference and make rational decisions in line with their strategy.
Thinking in Probabilities: Shifting to a Casino Mindset
Douglas spends considerable time explaining the concept of thinking in probabilities. He uses the metaphor of a casino to illustrate how successful traders operate. A casino doesn’t win every bet, but its edge ensures that over thousands of games, it consistently comes out ahead. Similarly, traders need to think of their trades in terms of probabilities.
Key Lesson: Your Edge is Everything
Your edge is your winning probability over a series of trades, not your ability to predict individual outcomes. Once you accept that losses are part of the game, the emotional attachment to individual trades fades. What matters is sticking to your system and letting the edge play out over time.
In practical terms, this means:
Don’t let a losing trade shake your confidence.
Don’t get overly excited about a winning trade.
Stay committed to your system, knowing that it will be profitable over time if you consistently apply it.
Overcoming the Fear of Losing
One of the biggest challenges traders face is the fear of losing. Fear of losing can cause you to avoid entering trades altogether or exit winning trades too soon. This fear stems from not fully accepting the risks of trading.
Key Lesson: Accept the Risk Before Entering a Trade
Before placing any trade, you must be at peace with the potential loss. Douglas emphasizes that you should only trade when you are completely comfortable with the risk. If you can’t emotionally handle the thought of losing a certain amount of money, you’re risking too much. By accepting the risk upfront, you free yourself from fear and allow yourself to trade objectively.
Douglas advises using smaller position sizes or setting tighter stop-losses until you feel confident about the level of risk you’re taking. Once you accept the risk, you can approach the market with less emotional interference and more discipline.
Consistency is Key: The Power of Discipline
Many traders struggle with inconsistency. They might have periods of great success, followed by periods of undisciplined trading that wipe out their profits. Douglas explains that the secret to long-term success in the markets is consistency—not in your results, but in your actions.
Key Lesson: Follow Your Rules
The most important trait of successful traders is that they follow their trading rules every single time. When you deviate from your rules because of fear, greed, or frustration, you open yourself up to unnecessary risk and losses. On the other hand, by consistently following your edge and your system, you guarantee that you will capitalize on your strategy’s strengths over time.
Consistency in following your plan leads to consistent results. Discipline becomes the foundation of a successful trading career.
The Psychological Barriers in Trading: Recognizing and Managing Emotions
Emotions such as fear, greed, impatience, and overconfidence are often the biggest roadblocks to successful trading. Douglas emphasizes that the key to overcoming these barriers is self-awareness. Traders must learn to recognize when their emotions are influencing their decisions and develop strategies for managing these emotions.
Key Lesson: Mindfulness and Emotional Control
By practicing mindfulness, traders can learn to separate their emotional responses from their actions. For example, when the market moves against you, instead of reacting impulsively, take a moment to assess the situation objectively. Is this a market move you’ve anticipated in your plan, or is it an emotional reaction to an unexpected event?
Douglas encourages traders to develop emotional control strategies, such as:
Journaling your trades to reflect on your emotional state during each trade.
Setting clear, predefined exit strategies to avoid emotional decision-making.
Practicing visualization and breathing techniques to stay calm during high-stress moments.
Developing a Rules-Based Trading System
Another crucial concept in Trading in the Zone is the importance of having a rules-based trading system. Many traders enter the market without a clear plan or rules, relying on gut feeling or market sentiment. This lack of structure leads to inconsistent results and poor decision-making.
Key Lesson: Create and Follow a Solid Trading Plan
To achieve success, Douglas emphasizes the need to create a trading plan that outlines:
Your entry and exit criteria.
How much you are willing to risk per trade.
The market conditions under which you will or won’t trade.
Having a plan allows you to remove emotion from your decision-making process. When you have clear rules in place, you don’t have to guess or second-guess your actions. Instead, you follow your plan with discipline and consistency, leading to more predictable results.
Trusting Yourself and Your System
One of the final messages in Trading in the Zone is the need to trust yourself and your system. Many traders fall into the trap of doubting their strategy after a few losses, even if the strategy has worked well over time. This lack of trust leads to system hopping, where traders jump from one strategy to the next, never giving any single approach enough time to prove its worth.
Key Lesson: Confidence and Commitment
Douglas emphasizes that once you’ve developed a solid trading system, you must commit to it fully. Trust that your system will work over a large number of trades, and resist the temptation to abandon it after a few losing trades. Confidence in yourself and your strategy is essential for long-term success.
The Zone: Peak Performance in Trading
Douglas describes the ultimate goal of every trader as achieving “the zone.” This is a mental state of peak performance, where you are fully in tune with the market, your emotions are under control, and you are executing your trades with clarity and confidence. Traders in the zone are not fixated on individual outcomes but are fully present and focused on following their process.
Key Lesson: Reaching “The Zone” in Trading: Achieving Peak Performance
In Trading in the Zone, Douglas introduces the idea of “the zone” — a state of peak performance where a trader is completely in sync with the market. In this mindset, emotional distractions are minimized, allowing you to make clear, confident, and unbiased decisions. When traders enter the zone, they’re fully focused on their process and not concerned with individual wins or losses.
Key Lesson: How to Achieve the Zone
Getting into the zone requires practice, emotional control, and mental discipline. By focusing on your trading process and minimizing emotional responses, you will begin to trade with precision and without hesitation. Some key steps include:
Mastering Emotional Control: Remove attachment to individual outcomes.
Focusing on the Process: Commit fully to your strategy and trading plan.
Trusting Your System: Develop unwavering confidence in your edge over time.
When you’ve trained your mind to operate in the zone, trading becomes a fluid experience, and you are better equipped to handle the challenges of the market.
Final Thoughts: The Psychology Behind Trading Success
Trading in the Zone offers profound insights into how the mind shapes success in the financial markets. The key takeaway from Douglas’ work is that mastering the mental game is essential for consistent, long-term profitability. Successful traders learn to think in probabilities, accept risk, and develop the discipline to follow their edge consistently.
Key Takeaways:
Embrace Uncertainty: Focus on probabilities rather than certainties.
Reprogram Limiting Beliefs: Accept that losses are part of trading.
Focus on Process Over Outcome: Build and trust your trading system, and don’t be swayed by short-term results.
Master Emotional Discipline: Be aware of how emotions like fear and greed impact your trading decisions.
Strive for Consistency: Following your rules consistently will lead to consistent profits over time.
By focusing on mindset and emotional control, traders can overcome common pitfalls and achieve the level of discipline required to succeed in the highly competitive world of trading. Through Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas offers a blueprint for developing the mental resilience needed to thrive in any market environment.
If you’re looking to elevate your trading performance, internalize these lessons and put them into practice. The market may be unpredictable, but with the right mindset, you can navigate it with confidence and discipline.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 (SPY) With Price ProjectionI expect the S&P 500 to decline in price based on the technical indicators and explanations in this chart. I welcome any comments and feedback.
A new down trend is expected based on the v-reversal pattern. There is support at 409 which is a 28% drop from the current price. That, coupled with light volume, indicate price for the SPY should decline. Also, if you look at the long term trendline of the S&P 500 (far left), that trend line is too steep and unsustainable. Interestingly, there is also a long term decline in volume since 2009. Currently, RSI is not over 70 so the market could push slightly higher but a new up trend is not expected.
SPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
SPY pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently rising on the 2H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 556.18 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Spy 580-600 by Early OctoberHello traders,
I think with the ratecut we could be entering a bullish period at least till early October. I could see spy hitting 600 or at least 580. I still think it will go even higher than that after an early October pullback... and rally into/after the election. Will ratecuts due to inflation coming down and the economy seeming to be doing OK... at this point I don't see anything stopping the bull train. Choo Choo... Hop on board!
I also show green Bull Full Moon and red Bear New Moon. We are in a bullish period till the next new moon on 10-2-2024.
P.S. I think crypto is gonna run as well...
Need aggravated buying for next week. Without SPY 600+Unless SPY starts blasting through the 570-585 range early next week, we will be stuck going sideways. I thoroughly expect a lot of complacency in buying or selling and expect volume to shrivel without much push through to March 2025, in which case bear can start making a case and some kind of genuine rollover could occur in 2025.
My guidance : Unless SPY blasts through 600-620 range within the month, do not get bullish as sideways will be the recipe for the next 6-8 months, before we could start approaching a downtrend or legitimate correction.
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 568.10 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 557.14
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY September 21, 2024AMEX:SPY September 21, 2024
Daily.
I still have target 580 levels. Then a big move after consolidation.
60 Minutes
Uptrend Confirmed.
For the rise 539.95 to 572.88 holding 560-565 is crucial for further targte 580 initially.
556-558 should provide good support as it is 100 and 200 averages in 60 minutes time frame.
Now we have oscillator divergence.
SO AMEX:SPY should consolidate between 560 570 levels for 2 or 3 days.
15 Minutes.
For the rise 560.84 to 572.88 AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8%. Hence a temporary double top around 570 levels can be expected.
We have 2 HL supported by oscillator.
At the moment 565-566 should give a good entry point. In 15 minutes weak below 563 levels as 200 averages could be broken.
due for a pull back? 10 years ago today the market started a move down that was 10% and lasted 20 days. this might seem insignificant but that was the biggest move down of that year.
Below are some rules to this game as explained by gann.
The stock market moves in 10-year cycles, which is worked out in 5-year cycles -- a 5-year cycle up and a 5 year cycle down.
Rule 1: Bull or bear campaigns do not run more than 3 to 3 1/2 years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction. Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd or 24th month of the move, or in the 34 to 35, 41 to 42, 49 to 60, 67 to 72, or 84 to 90th months.
Rule 2: A Bull campaign runs five years; 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.
Rule 3: A Bear cycle runs five years down. First move 2 years down, then 1 year up and 2 years down completing the 5-year down swing.
Rule 4: Add ten years to any top and it will give you another top of a 10 year cycle with about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 5: Add ten years to any bottom and it will give you the next bottom of the 10-year cycle and of the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 6: Bear campaigns run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to get bottom of 7year cycle.
Rule 7: From any complete top add three years to get the next top; then add three years to the first top, which will give the second top. Add four years to the second top to get the third and final top of a 10-year cycle.
Rule 8: Add five years to any top, will give the next bottom of a five-year cycle with about the same average fluctuations. In order to get tops of a 5-year cycle, add five years to any bottom and it will give the next top with the same average fluctuations. 1917 bottoms of a big bear campaign - add five years gives 1922 top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say 'Top of a Minor Bull Campaign'? 1919 was top - add five years to 1919, gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year Bear cycle. Refer to Rule 2 and 3, which will tell you that a Bull or Bear campaign never runs more than two years in the same direction.
The Bear campaign from 1919 was down two years - 1920 and 1921: therefore, we can only get a 1-year rally in 1922; then two years down - 1923 and 1924, which completes the 5-year Bear cycle. Now, look back to 1913 and 1914 and you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be Bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913 and 1914. Then note 1917 bottom of a Bear year, add seven years and it gives 1924 also as bottom of a Bear cycle.
Rule 9: How to make up Annual Forecasts for any year. Take ten years back and the future year will run very close to the last 10-year cycle. For instance -1932 will run like 1902, 1912, and 1922.
There is a major cycle of 30 years, which runs out three ten-year cycles. The 10-year cycle back from the present and the 20-year cycle have the most effect on the future. But in completing the 30-year cycle, it is best to have 30 years past records to check up to make up a future forecast. For instance: In order to make up my 1922 Forecast, I check 1892, 1902, and 1912, and watch for minor variations in monthly moves. But I know that 1922 will run closest to 1912. However, some stocks will run close to the fluctuations of 1892 and 1902. Remember each stock works from its own base or from its own tops and bottoms, and not always according to Average tops and bottoms . Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up weekly and monthly charts on them.
Rule 10: Extreme Great Cycles. There must always be a major and a minor, a lesser and a greater, a positive and a negative; that is why stocks have three important moves in a 10-year cycle, two tops three years apart and the next one four years. This works again the five years moves, 2 years up and 1 year down, then 2 years up - two major and one minor move. The smallest complete cycle or workout in a market is five years, and 10 is a complete cycle. Five times ten equals 50, which is the greatest cycle. At the end of a Great Cycle of 50 years, extreme high and low prices occur. Go over past records and you can verify this.
The number '7' is the basis of time, and a panick occurs and depression in the stock market every seven years, which is extreme and greater than the three-year decline. Note 1907, 1917, etc. Seven times seven is fatal, which makes 49 years, and causes extreme fluctations in the 49th to 50th year. Remember that you must begin with bottoms or tops to figure all cycles, whether major or minor. Extreme fluctuations also occur at the end of a 30-year cycle as you can see by going back 30 to 50 years.
Rule 11: Monthly moves can be determined by the same rule as yearly; i.e., add three months to a bottom, then add four, making seven, to get minor bottoms and reaction points. But remember in a Bull market a reaction may only last two or three weeks; then the advance is resumed. In this way, a market may continue up for twelve months without breaking a monthly bottom. In Big up swing a reaction will not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in yearly cycle - two down and the third up. This same rule applies in Bear markets -rallies not lasting more than two months. Most moves run out in six to seven weeks. Seven days in a week, and seven times seven making 49 days, a fatal turning point. Always watch your annual trend and consider whether you are in a bear or Bull market. Many times when in a Bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, a stock will react two or three weeks, then rest three or four weeks, going into new territory and advancing six to seven weeks more. Always consider whether or not your big time limit has run out before judging a reverse move, and do not fail to consider your indications on time both from main tops and bottoms.
Rule 12: Daily Charts: The daily swing runs on the same rules as yearly and monthly cycles, but of course it is only a minor part of them. Important daily changes occur every seven and ten days. During a month natural changes in trend occur around the 6th to 7th, 9th to 10th, 14th to 15th, 19th to 20th, 23rd to 24th, 29th to 31st. These minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks. Watch for a change in Trend 30 days from last top or bottom. This is very important. Then watch for changes 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms. 180 days, or six months, is very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves. Also the 9th and 11th months from tops and bottoms should be watched for important minor and often major changes.
A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for seven to ten days, the Weekly the next important changes in trend, and the month the strongest. Remember weekly moves run three to seven weeks; monthly 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, before reversing.
It is important to note whether a stock is making higher or lower bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, then makes a lower than previous year, it is a sign of a reversal and may mark a long down cycle. The same rule applies in stocks that are making lower tops for a number of years in a Bear market.
Study all the instructions and rules I have given you. Read them over several times, as each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual practice, as well as on past performance. In this way you will make progress and will realize and appreciate the value of my method of forecasting.
SPY scalping insights for today's session (September 20, 2024)Technical Analysis Overview:
SPY opened with a gap down, reflecting a bearish sentiment following the FOMC. This can indicate volatility at the open as traders digest the implications.
Volume Profile: The visible volume profile shows significant activity around the $565.92 and $568 levels, with a large volume concentration in the $561.38–$560.83 range. This suggests strong support at the $560–$562 range.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance around $568.60 (currently price hovering here), followed by $570–$572.88 (marked by the upper volume nodes). Expect profit-taking around these levels.
Moving Averages: The moving averages (20 EMA, 50 EMA) indicate price is hovering below both short-term averages, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum.
Stochastic Indicator: The stochastic is showing an oversold condition with a possible bullish crossover, suggesting that there could be a short-term recovery or bounce at the open.
Price Action & Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: Around $568.60–$569, where sellers are likely to take profits.
Support Zone: Strong support lies at $565.92. Below this, expect price to test $561.38.
Potential Gap Fill Target: If there’s bullish momentum, the gap to $572.88 (upper resistance) can be tested, but the move should be confirmed with volume and momentum.
Scalping Entry/Exit Strategy:
Entry 1 (Long): If SPY holds above $568, look for bullish confirmation with a stop around $566.5. Target the $570.5–$572.5 range for exit.
Entry 2 (Short): If price breaks below $565.92, enter a short position with a target at $561–$562, placing a stop around $567.5 to manage risk.
Exit Considerations: Use volume spikes or stochastic overbought/oversold conditions for timing exits.
Directional Bias:
Given the post-FOMC gap down, there is cautious sentiment. A bounce to fill the gap is possible, but the overall pressure remains bearish unless buyers strongly defend support zones. Monitor the $565–$568 range closely.
Today’s session might be volatile with rapid swings. Bearish bias persists, but expect possible bounces toward the gap-fill area.
Tight stop losses and quick profit-taking will be critical in today's environment due to possible fakeouts.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-20 : Breaking Up/Down PatternAfter watching yesterday's rally phase (which I believe was a relief rally driven mostly by foreign markets), I believe today's price move will be somewhat muted.
Yes, today's pattern is a Breaking (UP/DN) pattern, which suggests we may see some type of volatility event today. But overall, I believe yesterday's big price move was a volatility event, and today, the markets will struggle to identify a trend. I believe price will struggle for direction/trend today, and because of that, I'm urging traders to move assets away from the markets heading into this weekend.
I think it is better to move assets into CASH and prepare for trading next week. There is no reason to attempt to pick a position or trade heading into this weekend when we really don't know how the global markets will react to news or conflict events worldwide.
So, the best option today is to try to identify a few early trades, then move your assets into mostly cash and wait it out (till Monday).
I don't expect the markets to do anything besides consolidate below yesterday's highs.
Gold made the move up to 2635-2640 today - perfect. Pull profits today and wait for the next move.
BTCUSD is a bit higher today, but I believe it will pause - just like almost everything else today.
The global markets are still digesting the rate cut. We'll see what happens early next week - but today will probably be a stalling/pause in trend.
Get some.
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SPY - No Pain No Gain - Where's my peaches!So taking some PAIN as the markets wants to rally. However I am still not really worried as I am of the opinion that yesterday was just noise, pushing players out and setting up for a pullback.
For those of you following back when inflation was "transitory" I was telling my followers that it was not transitory that it was going to stick. The FED is generally lagging because we have dotes running this country.
Yes everyone in Government seems to fail upward. Just amazing how we have such incompetency running our financial systems.
Technically, I stand with this is a B leg of a broader correction cycle. Things are not all peaches and cream. Well this year the peaches sucked anyways, not sure why but they did here in Florida.
Consumer Debt at all time highs is going to be a real driver in cutting into consumer discretionary purchases. Also starting to see a lot more discounts at the grocery store which is indicative of people going with cheaper choices. NY Steaks $8.99/lb, Chicken Quarters $0.99 /lb. I am getting Free Range Organic Eggs for $3.99 /lb.
This means many are eating spaghetti and cereal because they can't afford healthy food. Also spending on dining out is down as well. I mean seriously, I use to go to breakfast and get eggs bacon, grits and toast, with a coffee for $6. Now that same meal is $10 and does not include coffee.
Credit Card delinquency is at it's highest level in 10 years and rising.
Car Repo's are up a staggering 23% and rising. (look good or buy eggs)
Ford and Chevy offering 1.99% on their 1/2 tons pickups (they can't move them)
Housing market is starting to become a buyers market. We have been looking for a second home after selling our rental, and literally had two agents at two different open houses tell us, make an offer, don't think its too low!!!
So though houses under 300k or over 1 million are still relatively selling in our area, the 400-800k homes are not. This is evidence of middle class erosion or clamming up.
In short this is a house of cards that will end badly regardless of who is in office. This will lead to more money printing and more inflation IMO. We are Fucked!!! So yes for now I will hold my short. I can change as the market may not be primed to pullback, but we will get that pullback at some point here.
This does not imply sell your long term holdings. What I would recommend is build up some cash to have for better prices. And Lord Jesus, get me some good peaches!!!
Use the SMA crossover as the trigger for direction change.Use this with SPY or SPX to identify direction. When the RSI crosses below the SMA you would initiate a buy Put option or initiate a Bear Call Credit Spread. If RSI Crosses above the SMA you would initiate a buy Call option or initiate a Bull Put Credit Spread. This is not financial advice it is what I do!
SPY testing key resistance levelsSPY today broke its resistance level set back in July after processing the rate cut. Other worrying signs to emerging though
shorter term resistance is breached to the upside
Longer term resistance line show SPY is back to pushing the limits trying to break above
Last time we experienced break above long term resistance in July it was followed by steep sell off in August
We should not be celebrating and jumping in on SPY just yet, looking like its poised for another correction. It is September-October after all.
SPY GAP UP WILL BE FILLED SOON AMEX:SPY
If you went short on SPY and sitting uncomfortable today, watch this chart label and take it easy. These gaps will eventually get filled and for today's 9/19/2024 gap up it will be filled soon.
cheers fellow traders !
