Pull back SPYBought some puts for 04/29 strike 439. Too much resistance above, looks like is going to be a rejection. Tight SL at 550.
SPY trade ideas
$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesn’t disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe.
We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap.
Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100%
"SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
WHERE WILL THE STOCK MARKET GO FROM HERE? (April 27, 2025)In this video, we take a quick look at AMEX:SPY weekly chart to determine what's next for the overall stock market
SPY Gap Fill $564.66SPX futures has a gap on the tariff announcement (see my ES plots), SPY has to hit $564.66 to fill that gap. I'm busy moving this week, so not playing it. Besides it looks like it's gonna whipsaw its way up anyways.
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 550.55
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 532.22
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY April 28, 2025AMEX:SPY April 28, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had 3 days without any gap issues.
So, Some consolidation.
So, if we take the low 508.46 as bottom for the last fall then for the extension 508.46 to 544.44 to 533.8, we have 557 as initial target.
A retracement to 538-542 levels will be good as averages will converge slightly for a move towards 563.
For this holding 533-534 is very important.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 28 – May 2, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 President Trump's 100th Day in Office: Wednesday marks President Trump's 100th day of his second term. His administration's protectionist tariffs continue to influence global markets and political landscapes, with notable impacts observed in Canada, Australia, and the UK.
📉 Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators: Investors are closely monitoring the effects of recent U.S. tariffs on economic performance. Key data releases this week, including GDP and employment figures, will provide insights into the economy's resilience amid these trade policies.
💼 Major Corporate Earnings: This week features earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, and McDonald's. These reports will offer a glimpse into how large corporations are navigating current economic challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 28:
🏠 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (10:00 AM ET):
Provides data on rental and homeowner vacancy rates, offering insights into housing market dynamics.
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📈 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 30:
📈 GDP (Q1 Advance Estimate) (8:30 AM ET):
Provides an early estimate of economic growth for the first quarter.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (10:00 AM ET):
Includes data on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
🏭 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Assesses business conditions in the Chicago region, reflecting manufacturing sector health.
📅 Thursday, May 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Reports total spending on construction projects, indicating economic activity in the sector.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Measures the number of new filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market
conditions.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Provides insight into the manufacturing sector's health through a survey of purchasing managers.
📅 Friday, May 2:
👷 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Reports the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Indicates the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking
employment.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Measures the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Spy Squeeze Theory $571The Liquidity Mirage: SPY’s $550 Trap?
SPY closed the day pressing into the $547–$550 zone — a major inflection level. Afterhours strength has sparked interest, but beneath the surface, this may be setting up for a high-stakes trap.
AlphaPulse Thesis:
If SPY opens or pushes above $550, our models signal one of the ugliest liquidity grabs in recent months. The move could extend to $561, even possibly squeezing to $571. But the velocity and volume behavior at these levels screams manipulated exit ramp.
Trade Expectation:
After this fake breakout move, we anticipate a sharp retrace targeting the $525–$520 zone, where true value buyers may re-emerge.
Indicators Flashing Red:
Volume Surge Divergence
MACD Overextension
Z-Score Volatility Spike
Options Flow: Put Walls Below $530
Watchlist Trigger Level:
Short Bias: Above $550
Breakdown Confirmed: Below $543
Target: $522 initial, $520 extended
Strategy Summary:
This is a classic liquidity run — institutions baiting breakouts to dump heavy bags. Be nimble, stay informed, and let JoeWtrades guide your precision.
— JoeWtrades, AlphaPulse Terminal™
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 25 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 25, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Spy Road To $500 or $481📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 29 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 29, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
Bias is still upBias is still up and likely the wedge fills out today. A strong move up after open may be sold into.
April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged.
The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke.
Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America.
As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there.
On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings.
Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball.
TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
SPDR Q2FY25 : WEB OF LIESprice will reverse at one of the points
-33% worst case
this is just a continuation to my recession post
SPY – April 29, 2025 – Where to Next After This Push?Looking at SPY on the daily chart, it’s been riding a solid recovery wave from that sharp drop in early April. The last seven sessions have all printed green candles, showing persistent demand — but now we’re pressing right into the resistance zone around $554–$555, which aligns with the top of a previous range before that breakdown. The MACD histogram is still rising, showing bullish momentum, and the Stoch RSI is curled up in overbought territory. That’s not a sell signal on its own — it just means we’re extended and probably due for a cooldown.
When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, I notice something more subtle — SPY has been grinding up within a rising wedge. The candles are getting tighter near the top channel line, and volume is starting to fade a bit. That tells me we’re at a spot where either momentum explodes higher... or this move starts to stall out.
Now, overlay that with the GEX map, and here’s what jumps out:
* $555 is a thick cluster of Call Wall and Net GEX resistance — 44.9% of second-tier call positioning is stacked there.
* Above that, $557–$560 also has GEX walls, so upside beyond $555 could get sold into unless we see strong breakout volume.
* On the flip side, $547 and $545 remain the nearest areas of downside gamma support — price tends to bounce off these zones if tested.
My Thoughts: We’re reaching a point where the path of least resistance might shift. If bulls can decisively break above $555, especially with volume and a GEX unwind, there’s room toward $557–$560. But if we get stuck here and break below $552, I’d expect some profit-taking down toward $547–$545.
Trade Setups I’d Consider:
* Bullish Breakout Trade:
Above $555 with volume
Entry: $556
Target: $559–$560
Stop: $553.50
(Ideal with IV still relatively low and GEX unwinding from that zone)
* Fade Rejection Play (If SPY can’t clear $555):
Entry: ~$554 with reversal candle
Target: $547
Stop: $556
(Volume weakness + rising wedge breakdown would support this)
Options Thoughts:
* IVR is at 29, with IVx lower than the average — premium is relatively cheap.
* GEX shows 89% PUTs, which might seem bearish, but it also suggests market makers could support pullbacks for now.
* A $555C or $560C for this week is a high-risk chase — I’d only grab it if SPY breaks and holds above $555.
* Safer might be a put debit spread targeting $547 if the rising wedge breaks down.
This week could be pivotal. SPY has had a strong run, but now it’s flirting with a crowded options zone. Watch the $555 level closely — that’s where the real decision likely gets made.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 24 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 24, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇪🇺 European Banks Brace for Tariff Impact: European banks are facing a challenging outlook as U.S. tariff hikes raise recession fears. Analysts anticipate slower revenue growth and increased loan loss provisions, with institutions like BNP Paribas expected to report earnings reflecting these pressures.
✈️ Airline Industry Faces Booking Declines: European airlines report a 3% drop in planned summer trips, with leisure travel down 8% compared to 2024. Economic concerns and rising travel costs, particularly among Gen Z travelers, are contributing factors. Airlines like Ryanair and Air France-KLM are considering fare adjustments to maintain demand.
👗 Kering's Revenue Drops Amid Gucci Struggles: Luxury group Kering reported a 14% decline in Q1 revenue, with flagship brand Gucci experiencing a 25% drop. The company attributes the downturn to ongoing brand challenges and macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending in key markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📦 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +2.1%
Previous: +0.9%
Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods, indicating manufacturing sector health.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 222,000
Previous: 215,000
Reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, signaling labor market trends.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.14 million
Previous: 4.26 million
Indicates the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, providing insight into housing market conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 28 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 28, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
The Market Still CreepsNothing as of now is telling me the market is bearish, but a few developments on the VIX and SP500 is telling me we are probably close to a turn
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 Procter & Gamble Cuts Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback: P&G shares declined after the company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and higher tariffs. CFO Andre Schulten noted significant consumer hesitation, linking it to volatility in mortgage rates and declining stock markets affecting retirement savings.
📊 Durable Goods Orders Surge, Core Spending Stagnant: March durable goods orders jumped 9.2%, driven by a spike in aircraft demand. However, core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose only 0.1%, indicating cautious business investment amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.
🏠 Existing Home Sales Decline Sharply: Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March to an annual rate of 4.02 million units, reflecting affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, April 25:
🗣️ Fed Governor Neel Kashkari Speaks (5:00 PM ET):
Remarks may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on current economic conditions and monetary policy direction.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025SPY Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025
📈 550 553 556
📉 544 543 540.50
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity
As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming.
While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains.
Entry Zone (Staggered):
🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum.
🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends.
🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup.
Profit Targets:
✅ 570: Initial rebound target.
✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds.
✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision.
Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
SPY EARNINGS WEELY AAPL AMZN MSTR METASPY WEELY - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings.
This week we have important earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta. We believe there could be a strong move in the SPY driven by the earnings reports, as well as by key economic data like unemployment figures, GDP, and Consumer Confidence. Based on these factors, we expect high volatility and see the potential for the SPY to move within the range of 530–520 on the downside and 560–580 on the upside.
