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SPY trade ideas

SPY should go up tomorrow ....I am using the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as I find you can see a definite directional pattern with them on the chart itself. Typically, you should wait until you see two green candles, but if you look at some of the indicators on the 6 hour chart, you can see that it is indicating a bullish move. The 7 hour and daily indicators should follow soon. (I will post these hourly charts following this idea) After the US election last month, the market shifted a little in the amount of days the SPY went up. In the month of November, the market only went up about 7 days but it did hit an upward move of 32 points and the Fibonacci number. I believe the market was shifting in November to get ready for the US Thanksgiving and Christmas as well as other upcoming events such as the Fed Meeting in December and other events in the January. The SPY will go up until about Nov 25th before moving sideways for a few days while US Thanksgiving is nearing. After US Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the market will continue to go up until Dec. 9 to 11th which is about a 12 to 14 day move using the green Heikin Ashi candlesticks. This was the typical length of time of the move of the previous months with the exception of November. In the last few months, I have observed that the up trend goes up between 12 to 14 days. So I will be out by Dec 10th. If the market hits the 1.619 Fibonacci, which is about 609, I am out. The SPY has been usually moving about 32 points per month on average. If it hits a 32 point upward move (616), I will be out. (but it will hit the 1.619 Fibonacci line before it hits the 32 point move) I believe the SPY will go up for the month of December and January before going down in February. I have been noticing that the market goes up for about 3 months before having a more of a downward trend in the fourth month. The market should technically go down after the middle of January and for approximately a month. During that time, the market may shift a little in time. (I am looking forward to that month to learn more.) If you look at the indicators on the 6 hour charts, specifically the DMI, Stochastic RSI, and the MacD, you can see that they are starting to shift to indicate a bullish move. Typically, I used the half hour, the hourly and the four-hour chart indicators to confirm that this is indeed a bullish move. I need all those indicators to align to confirm a trend. I only trade with the strength of the trend not the retractions. And typically (not always) I wait for at least 2 green Heikin Ashi candles to confirm trend before I enter. These are my rules that I follow. As I have said in my previous charts, I find the 5 minute indicators show what will happen in the next half hour, the 10 minute indicators show what will happen in the next hour, the half hour indicators show what will happen in the daily charts and the hour indicators will show what will happen over the next few days. (My opinion, not fact) I trade simple ... if I can't see the trade in a few simple steps, then this is not the trade for me. Also, I explain my trades in more detail for me, not for you. Repetition is the key for me. If I repeat it over enough in my head, it will more likely stick. Happy Trading everyone!!! :-) And here's to making oodles of money or at least learning something if you don't.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
Bull & Bear $SPY Weekly OptionsAMEX:SPY We expect the next two weeks through Thanksgiving to be quiet before we continue on this rally into the end of year through all-time highs. This week we are focusing on the range from $583 up to $598. We have weaker levels at $586 and $591.70. Here are our weekly options contracts for both sides of the trade. For confirmation, we use 15-30 minute candle closes over/under our entry level. $590 CALL 12/2 Entry: Retest Confirmation OVER $586 or $583.56 Targets: ($586), $588, $591 $584 PUT 12/2 Entry: Retest Confirmation UNDER $583.56 Targets: $580.90, Long-term trendline
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
ALL ROADS LEAD TO $PYI am feeling Bullish Monday for SPY. After the heavy selling on Friday. The 4-hour chart shows a DOJI well stablished by a small green candle that start to show momentum. On the smaller time frame, it is rebounding on the support line at that level. Supporting actions in relation to prediction: 1. Downtrace was not able to push lower than 50% in the FVG. 2. The lowest point once the great FVP was established was 585.43 and was not successfully broken at market close. Instead, it closed with the candle sitting above. 3. NVDA just rebounded at the small trendline created. 4. TSLA just rebounded at my last prediction price of 301 up, creating a sustainable support in that area to uptrend. 5. APPL is respecting a minor trendline within the 195 to 219 and starting to create a cross between 50 and 200 MA. This indication seems that the companies will push the SPY level up next week. If the SPY rejects this analysis I would wait until it reaches the 575/578 area for a push up. (If it goes below of 568 may the market gods be with us.)
AMEX:SPYLong
by soymundo21
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-14 : Temp Bottom In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to continue to flag sideways and slightly higher after finding support in early trading. Watch my video in detail. I go into a lot of longer-term price pattern detail and discuss the post-election setup of my Anomaly Event expectation. As I see the markets right now, they have moved, and continue to move in a direction that is likely to present a very real moderate crisis event over the next 3 to 6+ months. The stronger US Dollar is very likely to put pressure on foreign markets/debt related to the "carry trade" that was abundant before and after COVID. The Trump win is sending the markets into a Super-Predator mode (maybe I'll create a new video about this), where global markets, central banks, and global financial institutions may be at risk related to their long-term debt positions. At this point, The SPY and the QQQ will likely slide into a consolidation phase (a type of FLAGGING related to the broader Excess Phase Peak pattern) over the next 3+ days. Then, I expect the Anomaly Event to start to take shape and for the SPY/QQQ to begin a downward price trend. Gold and Silver are struggling to find a bottom as the US Dollar continues to rally. Don't expect any relief for metals as along as the US Dollar is rallying like this. This is a predatory shift related to global assets and Gold/Silver are going to stay weaker for as long as this shift continues. BTCUSD may rally up to $108k~120k if my research is correct. BTCUSD is in a "rally to the ultimate high" mode based on a very large Weekly Excess Phase Peak pattern. Remember, everything you need to know is already on the price chart. You just have to learn to identify these patterns and spend some time looking around at various intervals to figure out what is going to happen next. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
BEAR-TRAP : GAP Reversal May Lead To Larger EPP FlaggingPay attention to the dual Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns in the SPY this morning and how the current GAP Reversal pattern may resolve as a base/bottom in the markets in early trading. I believe the markets will shift from this early breakdown into a moderate upward (Flagging) trend. Learning to anticipate these types of shifts in the market can help you plan and prepare for future price trend rotations. Knowing the SPY is likely to attempt to base/bottom from a broader EPP pattern (moving into the sideways Flagging stage #2) suggests traders may attempt to prepare for a 0.75% to 1.25% upward price swing over the next 2 to 4+ days. This aggressive downward selling aligned perfectly with my SPY Cycle Patterns. Now, this low may be the Base/Bottom I'm expecting to shift into the FLAGGING phase of the larger EPP pattern (#2). Buckle up. This should be fun. Looks like a BEAR TRAP in the making. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P 500 Market Update Part 2 + Trade Plan AMEX:SPY Greetings everyone, Let’s analyze the recent price action of the S&P 500. I SPY 🕵️with my eye a reversal . The index reached a key milestone, breaking above $600 USD shortly after the US election. However, this achievement was short-lived. After briefly crossing the $600 level, it was quickly rejected, falling back below—a classic case of what traders often call a fakeout or a “look above and fail.” Momentum Shift: A Rollercoaster Analogy Imagine a rollercoaster that has climbed to its peak with tremendous force (the catalyst). The potential energy built up from the climb is unleashed as it starts descending rapidly. Similarly, after a period of intense buying pressure, the market often runs out of steam, stalling and reversing direction—just like our rollercoaster hurtling back downward after reaching its height. What Happened Next? Following the breakout, extreme selling pressure set in, driving prices down sharply. During market hours, the price bounced between highs and lows, showing signs of uncertainty and volatility. Renewed Interest and Its Consequences As the price dipped, confident buyers stepped in, creating a back-and-forth movement akin to a seesaw. This tug-of-war in price action is evident in the bear flag pattern which formed on the chart. While the bear flag doesn’t guarantee further downside, it often signals the potential for continued selling pressure based on historical patterns. What’s next for the S&P 500? I have my long term support target which I expect price may revisit in order to build enough momentum aka buying pressure. For its next major move - whether it’s up once more or continued lower Major Levels: 586 Major SR 591 Strong Resistance as of late 596.89 Zone to consider going long if price renters and holds. Trade Plan: I gave out the trade idea to short if priced Reversed at $600 in my previous market post. Give it a like 👍. If you were able to catch that trade through reading my previous or on your own accord please like or drop a comment on how you executed the trade. Trade Plan Assuming you were trading since 600, I would be de-risk by taking some profit. Setup: 1. Bearish engulfing at major resistance levels & short to the previous lower levels. 2. I would also be looking for a strong reversal at the levels noted to re-enter the short. 3. The end goal is 588.xx + a small margin of error. Thanks, - C Lemard
AMEX:SPYShort
by coilemard
1
SPY in Downtrend: Key Levels and Trade Setups for Nov. 15, 2024Trading Plan and Technical Analysis for SPY Overview SPY has shown a sharp downward trend recently, with price action reflecting bearish momentum. In this setup, I’ll cover important support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones, and potential entry/exit points for both scalping and swing trades. Key Levels Support Zones: $591: This is the immediate support level. A break below this could signal further downside momentum. $585: If SPY fails to hold above $591, this level becomes the next target and is a key zone where buyers may step in. Resistance Zones: $594.34 - $594.96: This area served as previous support and may now act as resistance. A strong push above this range could indicate a potential reversal. $599.16: If SPY can break through $594 with volume, the next significant resistance is around $599. Price Action & Supply/Demand Zones Demand Zone: Between $585 and $591, where SPY may find buying interest if the downward pressure subsides. Supply Zone: The region around $594.34 - $594.96. If price approaches this zone, watch for potential selling or resistance unless there’s a strong breakout. Order Blocks & Market Structure Bearish Order Block: Around $594.34 - $594.96, where sellers previously gained control. This area is a critical level for bears to defend if the downtrend is to continue. Potential Bullish Reversal: If SPY can reclaim and hold above $594.96, it could signal a shift toward bullish sentiment, at least for a short-term bounce. Entry & Exit Suggestions Scalping Entry: For short scalps, look to enter around $591 on breakdowns or quick bounces, targeting $588 with a tight stop above $592. Swing Trade Entry: Consider entering near $585 if SPY reaches this level and shows signs of support, with a potential target around $594.34. Use a stop-loss below $584 to manage risk. Directional Outlook Bearish Scenario: If SPY fails to hold $591, look for further downside, with $585 as the next key target. Bullish Reversal Potential: For a bullish reversal, SPY needs to break above $594.96 with volume. This could lead to a short-term move toward $599.16. Thoughts and Suggestions With the current downtrend, scalpers should focus on quick plays around the support levels. Swing traders may find opportunity if SPY shows signs of strength at $585, but it’s crucial to be cautious until a clearer reversal signal emerges. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
2
Technical Analysis of SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) for Nov. 12, 2024Overview: SPY is currently testing a significant resistance level following a notable rally from late October lows. The ETF has shown sustained upward momentum on the hourly chart, respecting the trendline drawn since the breakout. However, momentum indicators suggest the rally may be facing exhaustion. Traders should be on alert for either a breakout continuation or a potential pullback, depending on upcoming price action around this resistance area. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: $601.05: A critical resistance level that SPY is currently testing. A break above this could lead to further bullish momentum. $610.00: If SPY breaks above $601.05 with volume, $610.00 could be the next target for bulls. Support Levels: $589.84: The immediate support level. A break below this could signal a weakening trend and may indicate a retracement. $578.35: A more substantial support level to watch in case of a pullback, marking previous consolidation before the recent run-up. Indicators and Trends: Moving Averages (EMA 9 & 21): The EMAs on this chart have been a good gauge of trend direction, with the price remaining above both the 9 and 21 EMAs, which currently act as dynamic supports. As long as SPY trades above these EMAs, the short-term trend remains bullish. Volume Analysis: Volume shows signs of declining as SPY approaches resistance, indicating potential buyer fatigue. A breakout with strong volume would suggest conviction among buyers, while a drop-off in volume could lead to a consolidation phase or even a reversal. MACD Indicator: The MACD shows a potential bearish crossover on the hourly chart, hinting at a slowing momentum. Traders should monitor this closely; if it crosses below the signal line, it could reinforce a bearish outlook, potentially initiating a retracement towards the support levels. Trade Strategy and Actionable Insights: For Bullish Traders: Look for a confirmed breakout above the $601.05 level with above-average volume. If this occurs, consider entering a long position with an initial target around $610.00. To manage risk, set a stop-loss slightly below $589.84, as this level marks the closest support. For Bearish Traders: Watch for signs of weakness, such as a rejection at $601.05 or a drop below $589.84. If SPY fails to break out and begins showing bearish signals, short positions could be taken with a target towards the $578.35 level. Set stops just above the $601.05 resistance to limit potential losses if the breakout resumes. Final Thoughts: This is a pivotal point for SPY. A breakout above resistance with volume could propel SPY into new highs, while a rejection could spark a short-term pullback. Traders should closely monitor price action around these levels, as it will likely provide clearer guidance on the next trend direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to do your research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
4
So, what happens next? I am not sure if everyone is wondering the same as me, but after the election results and seeing the PA reaction, I wondered “So…. What now?”. A challenging and interesting question that I don’t think I or anyone can answer with the upmost confidence. But I wanted to take the time to write out a post that combines some statistics, a recap of my YTD ideas on SPY and where we are now, and what the future could look like. I also hope to provide some perspective into the PA. I know for many of you, trading is new and a new exposure. For me, who has been trading since 2018, this year has felt like the most bullish year I have ever traded. But when I look at the objective data, it actually spells a different story. So make yourself comfortable, its probably going to be a long post! Forging into another era of Trump I will save any political opinions for elsewhere. But its interesting that Trump has been re-elected as my nascence in trading arrived under the Trump’s presidency. And interestingly enough, my indoctrination into trading a Trump market was trading a bear market! I started trading during the 2018 bear correction when the market saw an initial flash crash that was pretty quick. It rallied back up to make another ATH and then did a longer bear correction where it actually corrected below the 500 day mean: As well, this was a mean reversion on the log linear scale: As a personal anecdote, I am still very much a permabear, despite always shilling long more or less in the current climate, and I feel like this permabear mentality arrived from the first market I traded being a bear market. From 2016 to 2020, the market had about 4 crashes, 1 bear market/correction and the rest was all bull market. No real difference from any other 4 year period. The only major difference during 2016 – 2020 period were the crashes were a bit shallower than other crashes traditionally, with the average being about 11% vs overall average being about 13% for SPY’s nascence. What this means going forward? We will likely see a few crashes and at least one bear correction in the coming years. However, perhaps the extent of the crashes and corrections will be muted, if, under the new presidency, USA is able to raise its GDP and boost economic production, which happened during the 2016 – 2020 term. What about the Statistics? Taking fundamentals and politics out of the equation and simply looking at what the market can tell us about itself, we can see some other interesting tidbits. Either before continuing or after reading, I suggest you check out a previous post I did about the outlook for the S&P based on historical behaviour, it turned out to be spot on: Let’s look at standardized returns on SPY: SPY’s current annual return is 0.27. We are not, by any stretch of the imagination, at historically high return levels. But, close.. ish. As you can see from the information in the chart above, the historically high return happened during the tech bubble and was 0.38, or 38%. SPY currently rests at 27%. If we take the average returns in general, no filtering for bearish or bullish years, we get 0.10 (rounded), or 10%. The average return of only bullish years is 18%. If SPY were to close at the average this year, we would see SPY retrace back to 557. The median is 19%, which would be a retrace to 561. Other Statistics applicable One thing that I have used a bit this year is a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations take the normal distribution and randomly assign values from the normal distribution over x number of simulations. The simulation I have used consists of 200 simulations, using 2023 data, and plotting the average of the central tendencies: If we zoom in a bit closer, we can see where the simulations all agree of dips (red) and rallies (green): If we want to take the simulation in totality, it shows that SPY could, theoretically, see a high this year of 621 to 650: If you remember my earlier post, the annual ARIMA for SPY put the 80% confidence level at 591, and the 95% confidence level at 621. So 621 could indeed be a target observed into EOY. Probability and more probability! Let’s talk about probability for a second. To ascertain a more accurate assessment of probability, I am going to use data for SPX. Keep in mind, SPX and SPY track the same thing, so the returns will be identical. Because we are standardizing returns, they will also be the same value. Just to put your mind at ease, SPY’s approximate returns YTD are: 0.2634936. SPX’s are 0.2669222. The difference is statistically insignificant. So using SPX data, which we have since 1878 ish, let’s calculate the probability of closing at or above where we are now (>= 26%). The probability of SPX closing with 26% returns is 15%.The probability of SPX closing at 18% is around 26%. What this means is, we can’t say that it is likely that SPY will maintain these levels into EOY. Its not impossible, 15% probability is actually pretty big, a bit bigger than I expected. But the odds favour more a more reasonable close in the 18% area. If we want to take it a step further, and calculate what is the probability that SPX/SPY closes on a High. The probability that SPX will close on a high is 16%. Again, I am a little shook by this high percent! But obviously its not as likely as if it were to be 50% or 80%. Forecasts Don’t worry, we are nearing the end of this post. If you are reading to this point, thanks! I appreciate your interest in my random tangents of applying stats to markets! I want to briefly touch on Forecasts and outlooks. The market is naturally bullish. The U.S. has a new president that tends to have an emphasis on a strong economy. What is the most likely forecast? This is a complex question. I can accomplish a general forecast through using algorithms, but it doesn’t really take into account the economic influence that may be at play if we do see a strong economy into 2025. Remember I indicated that during 2016 – 2020, we did have crashes and bear market corrections, but they were shallower than average, likely mitigated by the strong economic policy during that presidency. Using a basic, machine learning algorithm to forecast the end result. So what I am going to do is use SPX again, because again more history, and run a forecast based on this period here: And I am forecasting it over the next 252 days, or 1 trading year from Friday (November 8th, 2024). The result actually puts us back into 2022, with this being the scaled plot of the forecast: And lastly, Targets! So, let’s quickly talk targets. Remember, our ARIMA 95% level on the year is 621. That means, 95% of closes should fall below 621. In addition, we also have a high probability modelled target at 564. This is hit > 85% of the time. And lastly, based on a seasonality assessment, our most similar year is 2021. This puts our scaled annual high at approximately 601. The targets we should absolutely see into EOY are: 564 and 601. The sequence of events remain up for debate. Conclusion: So, this is a long post, let me just give you the cliff notes of what to take away from it: Cap on the year should be 621. Retracement target should be around 564. High of the year should be around 601. There is about a 15% chance we close the year at this position or higher. There is about a 26% chance we close below this level but at or above 557. Overall assessment reveals a possible correction/crash. Its unlikely we see much lower than 564, even getting to 564 seems rather impossible at this point, but crashes come swift and unexpected I will be honest, I am not sure we see too much downside before EOY. The market is on a cocaine fueled rocket that shows no signs of slowing. I “feel” that its just going to go up until there is a reality check into the following year. But this is not based on the objective data, just my own “feelings” which are not all that reliable, haha. That’s it everyone! Thanks for reading, safe trades and happy rest of the trading year!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
7
SPY going up after the electionEven though the DAILY indicators have not changed, the 30 minute, the 1 hour and even the 2 hour indicators are shifting to indicate an upward movement. The rest of the hourly and daily indicators will soon follow. (I will post these 30 minute and the 1 hour indicators soon) I am using the Heikin Ashi candlestick as I find you see more of a definite trend on the candlesticks itself. Typically, you would wait to enter the trade until you see 2 green candlesticks. But I am a little bit of a rebel and I already entered today, which will probably come back to bite me in the ass soon! LOL! ;-) I use the MacD, DMI and the Stochastic RSI as my indicators. The SPY will move about 34 points which was the average upward move of the previous months and that hits the fib line of 1.618. I use the fib tool to get a general approximation of the target. So I estimate the target of the SPY at around 602. It will reach that target around November 21st or approximately a 14 day upward move, which has been the average upward move in the previous months. Around November 12th, the market will pause a little before heading back up to reach the target I have laid out as 602. Happy trading everyone!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-15: GAP-Reversal Counter-TrendToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will GAP downward at the open and attempt to identify a base/bottom throughout the day. I belive this move may represent a pause in the downward trend, shifting into a FLAGGING pattern as part of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we are going to move into a moderate BUYing opportunity for the SPY/QQQ lasting into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up a base/bottom off a very deep Phase #5 (Ultimate Low) of a current Excess Phase Peak pattern. This means, if we continue to get confirmation, that Gold and Silver will attempt to move higher and attempt to move into the Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (a move into a consolidation phase). BTCUSD is current exhibiting a dual type of Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests a broader breakdown is in the works. Possibly back down to 78-82k. This could be a very big contraction event for BTCUSD. Buckle up. Happy Friday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
$SPY November 16, 2024AMEX:SPY November 16, 2024 For a change target came without much of drama. Could not short the previous day. So had no trade. For the week: 5 Minutes: We had multiple LL and managed to close HL HH pattern. Oscillator divergence can be seen. 9,21, 50 averages converged. So, expecting a bounce to 589 - 592 levels being 100 and 200 averages. 200 averages in 5 minutes could be a good level to short. SL 592.75 being 23.6% retracement for the rise 567.86 to 600.17. 15 Minutes: We can see a consolidation going on last 15 bars or so. Downtrend intact as below 50,100 and 20 averages. Again 590 to 593 represents 50 to 200 average range in 15 minutes too. 60 Minutes. Took support at 200 averages. For the fall 600.17 to 583.86 593-594 is a good level to short. it represents 61.8% of retracement for the fall. Daily: Took support of 21 average in daily. Holding 580 is important to continue uptrend taking the last rise into consideration from 567.89 to 600.17. If 580 is broke next support is 575-576 levels. It also represents 23.6% retracement for the rise 539.44 to 600.17. So next week range is Go long with SL 583.5 for 590-592 as target. or go short below 580 for 576+ as target SL 581.5
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader