Trump Pump. Trump Dump. Trading Family,
We had our Trump pump. Now, we are seeing a Trump dump. Tariffs and other geopolitical events are causing market uncertainty. Let's take a look at our charts to find out how much more pain we are in for. And, a positive sign. Smaller cap altcoins and many memecoins appear to be holding strong!
✌️ Stew
SPY trade ideas
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 28, 2025Here are the key support and resistance levels for SPY today, indicating potential reversal or consolidation points. A bounce off these levels may signal long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
These levels are calculated using mathematical models relevant for today's trading session. They may change in the future.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY: Big picture on three time framesThe AMEX:SPY sell-off this week might be scary, and here we want to go back to the old-fashioned three-time frame concept. It works as a good road navigation. Additionally, I added the data from www.aaii.com to show how bearish sentiment prevails now to give us a short-term hope. The bearish sentiment at its extreme zone (twice higher vs average) gives a clue that the local bottom is near, and not acting as a trading signal
On the charts, we see AMEX:SPY on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis.
More noise is on a daily basis, so I want to keep an eye on the weeklies to help choose the strategy, even for intraday trading. A monthly time frame helps to add gears of consciousness (ATH, 3 bar swing formed).
Blue lines form the channel, which is the Keltner Channel. It shows the tunnel of extremes as well. This means that if we reach the lower band, we may dance there for a while, and then it will bounce.
Hypothetically, if we enter the bearish market, we need to see the lower low and the lower highs at least on the weeklies. For me it will tell that all bounces will be shorter (~ Fib. 0.382) and sharper, and I will adjust my expectations.
Coming back to the current situation on weeklies, I see we are on a bullish trend. On dailies, obviously in a downtrend and near its local bottom. We closed the old gap, so the next potential magnet is ~575-ish support. To confirm a bounce start we want to see at least 3 bar reversal, a ka lower low formed and follow through. The sentiment brightness might be sticky, so no promises.
Stay profitable!
Cheers!
SPY in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone at bottom of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band
Entry at $586
Target is upper channel around $612
SPY: Still A Good Buy for 2025The SPX500 (SPY) here on the chart has fallen about 4.46% for the year 2025. Already a good retracement for 2025.
The price at 587.36 (daily chart) is in a window's range of potential support after hitting that 612 weekly/monthly target of resistance at the top.
Tentative Projection for 2025: 680
Daily:
Weekly:
SPY - support & resistant areas for today Feb 27, 2025** AMEX:SPY : Daily Support and Resistance Levels**
Here are the key support and resistance points for SPY for today. These levels are crucial as they define areas where the price may reverse or consolidate. A bounce off these support or resistance zones can signal potential long (buy) or short (sell) positions for traders.
These levels have been calculated using mathematical models and future forecasting techniques, ensuring that they are relevant for the trading day. Please note that these levels are only applicable for today’s trading session and may change in the future.
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SPY Holding the Line at $590! Will We See a Bounce or More DownsTechnical Analysis for February 27, 2025:
1. Current Price Action:
* SPY is trading around $593, attempting to hold above $590 (key support level).
* A falling wedge pattern is forming, which could signal a reversal if SPY reclaims $595-$600.
* POC (Point of Control) at $594.43 is the key pivot area for direction.
2. Key Levels to Watch:
* Support: $590 (Critical level), $589.56 (Last line of defense), $580 (Major downside risk).
* Resistance: $595-$600 (Breakout level), $605 (Strong resistance).
* Upside Targets: $610, $615, $620.
3. Indicators Analysis:
* MACD: Bearish, but flattening, suggesting slowing downside momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Moving higher, indicating a potential short-term bounce.
* Volume Profile: Heavy liquidity between $590-$595, indicating strong accumulation or distribution.
GEX & Option Strategy for Tomorrow and the Week:
1. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights:
* Call Walls: $610, $620 → Resistance areas.
* Put Walls: $590, $580 → Key downside support.
2. IV & Sentiment:
* IVR: 30.8 (Low)
* IVx Avg: 22.7 (Very low volatility, favoring breakouts).
* Put Positioning: 102.9% bearish sentiment.
* GEX Sentiment: Very bearish—needs $595+ to shift sentiment.
3. Trading Suggestions:
* Bullish Setup: If SPY reclaims $595-$600, consider long positions targeting $605-$610, with a stop at $590.
* Bearish Setup: If SPY fails to hold $590, short setups targeting $585-$580, stop at $595.
* Options Play: Selling put spreads at $590 or call spreads near $610 resistance.
📌 My Thoughts & Suggestion:
* SPY is sitting at a critical support zone ($590-$593)—holding here could trigger a bounce toward $600-$605.
* A break below $590 could lead to accelerated selling toward $580.
* Low volatility suggests a breakout move is coming, making long options attractive.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚀
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-27: Weekday FLUSH PatternToday's Weekday FLUSH pattern is similar to a CRUSH pattern. It usually represents a very wide-range price bar with the potential for a big breakdown or breakaway type of price action.
Given yesterday's fairly wide price action and the NVDA earnings last night - I would not be surprised to see quite a bit of profit-taking in early trading, leading to an initial downward price trend, then moving into a basing/bottoming phase after 12-1PM ET.
In other words, a fairly large DIP/Sell-off leading to a base/bottom, then flipping bullish through the end of the day today.
Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ will continue to try to push higher in the Excess Phase Peak pattern - reaching a peak between March 5-10 (only about 5-7+ trading days away).
Thus, we don't have a big rally ahead of us - only about 3-5+ days of a fairly strong rally over the next 5-10 trading days.
Now that the selling pressure has abated, metals should be forming a base or bottom. Get ready for an explosive move higher.
BTCUSD has broken downward and is not in the larger consolidation phase. This phase will likely continue for at least 2+ weeks before we attempt to move into the search for the Ultimate Low (likely below $75k).
Buckle up. Things are about to get very interesting.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY February 27, 2025AMEX:SPY February 27, 2025
60 Minutes.
The move to 598-599 and a retrace to 592-594 levels was completed yesterday.
Now for the fall 613.23 to 589.56 i expect a retracement around 598-600 levels being 38.2 and 50 percent retracement moves.
At the moment is trend is down.
Uptrend only above 608 levels.
601-604 levels should be a good level to short again.
In 60 minutes, we have 50,100,200 averages converging around 603-604 levels which is the next area of resistance.
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 609.70 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 600.34
Recommended Stop Loss - 615.13
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-26-25 : Rally In Counter TrendToday's Rally in counter-trend mode aligns with the current breakdown as a strong possibility of a Rally (Upward) type of trend.
After yesterday's deep low and moderate recovery near the end of the day, I suspect the SPY is setting up another Excess Phase Peak base - transitioning into the upward Flagging formation.
Because of this, I suspect today's Rally pattern will result in a moderate Melt-Up type of price action in the SPY/QQQ.
It may also prompt metals to rally off yesterday's lows as the Panic selling mode ends.
BTCUSD I still seeking a new low and trying to find the consolidation phase. I believe BTCUSD could fall further before finding support.
This is going to be a very interesting ROLL of price related to the SPY/QQQ, Gold and Silver, while Bitcoin continues to try to identify lower support.
Almost like a "disconnect" is taking place.
Ultimately, I think we'll see a peak between March 5-12 in the SPY/QQQ - rolling downward into the March 21-24 Major Bottom.
Get some today.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY February 26, 2025AMEX:SPY February 26, 2025
15 Minutes.
100% extension move was completed yesterday. Now i expect a bounce before next fall.
For the rise 589.56 to 596.67 holding 593.5 - 594 is important for 597.5 to 599 levels.
We are still in a series of LL and LH pattern and below 200 averages too.
For the extension 589.56 to 599.96 to 593.02 I have a target 597-598 levels.
That should be a good level to short again.
SPY will trade within the triangle ...I thought I would update this chart as the triangle has adjusted slightly since my last 2 posts. This makes the tip of the triangle farther out as well as a different projected time of the SPY exiting out of the triangle.
The tip of the triangle is now around Mar 18th and there are many events until that time that could push the market out of the triangle such as jobless claims and inflation, etc. I am not guessing what event is going to make the market move out of the triangle.
It looks like the market is going up for 4 to 5 days and then down one or two days while it is in the triangle formation. I think tomorrow (Monday) the market will go up as this will follow the pattern it is displaying. As well, the half hour indicators are already looking bullish.
As I have mentioned in other charts:
From a technical trading point of view, the market could go up or down closer to the tip of the triangle. Breakouts of triangle pattern usually occur 2/3 to 3/4 of the triangle length, so the SPY could move outside the triangle before the tip. The triangle pattern is usually considered a continuation pattern which means the market will continue in the direction it was moving before the triangle started. This pattern should usually have at least 5 touches of support and resistance. You can get any of this information from the internet.
I think there are 3 aspects to trading:
1) Being able to read the charts so you have an idea where the market is going.
2) Being able to choose the correct trade strategy for the market conditions. You do not want to put a bullish trade when the market is bearish and vice versa. There are also certain trades where you can make money when the market is trading sideways with a non-directional trading strategy or a different trade if the market is extremely volatile. You can apply an iron condor, a credit spread, debit spread or butterfly trade depending on the market conditions. All trades have their own risks and rewards.
3) Knowing details, both the positives and negatives about your brokerage which can really elevate your trading.
MORE THEORY … which you may have heard before.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. Why Heikin Ashi candlesticks?
1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks.
2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better.
3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer.
4) And, it gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. (This information is from Dr. Keith Wade who speaks at the Wealth365 Summits.)
I personally find:
* the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour.
* the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour.
* the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily.
* and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts.
I am trying to take trading classes through Udemy, mostly because they are cheap. LOL! I usually wait for a sale where the courses are as low as $14.99 instead of over $100 per course which they have regularly. As well, you may be able to get access to Udemy through your local library depending on where you live. www.udemy.com
I always try to attend the free Wealth365 Summit which is held about 4 times a year where I always pick up some more useful information. I believe the next one will be around April. Again, I am not affiliated with this company in any way. wealth365.com/
Happy trading everyone!
SPX Final Blow Off TopSPX going through it's final peak euphoria wave before the final blow off top in my opinion. Recession is coming as indicators such as Sahm Rule, Inverted Yield Curve are predicting a recession. The FED is blindsided by a dead cat bounce in inflation and will find themselves in a position to cut rates insanely fast.