Potential Entry PointsHistory has a way of repeating itself and I think it could again.... Execute the plan
SPY trade ideas
SPX: Market at Risk of Major Correction
RSI divergence is one of the strongest indicators that has shown the bring major corrections to S&P500 historically.
We are now observing the formation of a near decade long RSI divergence which could put the entire market at extreme risk of 20% correction to 50% crash.
If July closes with a shooting star pattern, we should continue to slide down till RSI rest near 20's for the next couple of years.
SPY Monthly Megaphones - Longer term SP500 buying planTLDR: Flat on stocks, waiting for very deep discounts several years in the future
Details:
Expecting it to make another megaphone shape similar to the one it made from 2017 to 2020.
The idea is it will hunt for liquidity under the 350 swing. This means to watch for a buying zone in the region of 372 to 290 from around July 2025 to May 2026.
This zone also lines up with the lines of several long term pitchforks and gives exit targets along those forks' medians.
Reasons to expect so much bearishness include:
Nancy Pelosi, Buffet selling at the top
Intel CEO praying on twitter
Unrest in UK
Tensions/war in Gaza, Ukraine, Iran
Kramer saying it's not the end of the world
If those situations resolve then it may not need to hunt deeply below 350 and in fact the 400 price zone may be a better re-entry spot.
But if the overall macro news stories continue to be saturated with uncertainty then it's much better to wait for deeply discounted prices rather than catch a falling knife.
SPY BEARISH SEASONALITYThe SP500 Index, and specifically the SPY ETF, has been mostly bearish in the past 96 years during the period from August 2nd to September 30th.If we perform the same analysis on seasonality over a shorter time period (e.g., 10 or 25 years), the statistics don't change much. Seasonality is not favorable, and this year, due to the relentless and unstoppable rises since October '23 and a concurrently unstable geopolitical situation, I would suggest postponing any averaging or purchase of shares for an accumulation plan in this instrument until mid-October. We might see a reduction in volatility, but a return of the index to new highs seems unlikely. Whatever you do, please be cautious with money management and avoid blindly following the dangerous 'Buy the Dip' strategy. Thank you.
8-5-24 Developing Pinescript Tools For TradersPart of my learning process with TradingView has been to delve a bit into Pinescript.
I've been programming for a while now - more than 20 years. But I focus on developing modeling systems, adaptive AI types of solutions, and fully automated trading systems for clients.
Pinescript has been fun. Overall, I believe there are many advanced capabilities achievable in Pinescript as long as one sticks to simple principles.
_ a focus on core elements as separate script components
_ remember to clean/document up your processes/arrays as you go
_ develop core logic functions first, then go back and address display features
_ remember to organize your code in a way you can clearly address version changes
In this example, I started with the idea of building a tool based on Fibonacci Price Theory, then came up with an idea to measure price pressure differently than others had done.
Once I started playing with the display features (plot) I was able to see how my initial scripts worked and how the calculated data represents price trends/changes.
For me, seeing is the biggest part of the process. If I can't see how the data looks - then it is almost unusable for me to build more advanced logical features.
That's why I suggest building each component of your system out as unique indicators. I want to see the data/indicator work before I try to build some additional trading logic with it.
Overall, I'm very happy with what I've built. It has taken me about 2 weeks to build all of this (only really applying a few hours every other day or so).
One last thing, use the newbar feature to control persistent variable features. Otherwise, you may end up creating something that processes every tick.
More soon.
#toolsfortraders #trading #spy #qqq #btcusd #strategy #systems #coding
SPY strong down energy to $521-26I dowse stocks and indexes, and I've had SPX over 5600 for a long time. (Everything I do is really just a great research project, btw) We've turned off of there and I had a dream on the 10th with my signal for a reversal down.
The dowsing is really in my face about some heavier move down. Main target is probably $523, but it's a zone.
I keep getting advised to get a time of the day. When that happens, it's usually signaling a bigger reversal. The times keep coming around 11:00- 11:20 (or more like 11:10), but I think it's for tomorrow. So I'll be watching for a high. Though half the time I'm wrong about the call on direction, but the reversal will happen, so flexibility is important.
Another note is that earlier this year I did monthly readings to see if they would be accurate at all. It's been super encouraging and did suggest a down in July that bottoms out in August. Be VERY aware of the date of August 12th.
That date comes up multiple times including out of the blue when my psychic friend asked me last week what the 12th is about.
We'll see if we really get as high as dowsing is saying. I kind of doubt that part, but it would look pretty filling that gap and offer a bigger trade on the downside.
I'll update if I get anything new, and will note that I have some personal energy around this that makes it a bit suspect. Or, like I might be missing something, so I just want to be transparent about that. Good luck!
08/05 SPY ATR Levels and Range BLOOOOODBATH!!!!!AMEX:SPY levels, that increase in overall ATR is not good, since thats all calculated from the downside lately, last 14 days of trading, although the number is going up, its going up for all the wrong reasons. Almost breached 6$ ATR from earlier in the month last month in the MID 5.40s
Toooo much uncertainty for me, I need to watch and see what happens. I would suspect a pull under 500$ with all the news that's out there, but who the hell knows. Too much craziness to stick my finger in anything.
SPY TO the SKY 515Look back you will see the targets are getting hit from this chart I posted. 515 is the downside target. Wait for confirmation if it’s going to stay and hold if it confirms above that 520 zone. This is mercury retrograde until 27th of august so expected communication and connectivity issues. And these dumps are correlating perfectly with the NOAA G1G2G3 solar impacts.
Spy 480ish. Not much to see here. Basic TA suggests 480 retest. It’s not a market crash. It’s just collection restructuring. Ascending support, golden fib retracement range, previous top.
Wait for opportunity and sell pops in the meantime.
$SPY August 5, 2024AMEX:SPY August 5, 2024
Levels broken.
We have to take from two lows,
409 and 493
500-502 is 200 average in daily.
Today premarket has broken 61.8% levels of 494 - 565 rise.
If we take the low from 409 then 38.2% retracement for the move 409 to 565 is 505 levels.
That will be 10% correction and probably 200 average supports.
Have to see if it holds.
Since the move started from 490 levels i will be worried only if 490 is broken.
SP500 ETF Wave MetricsFractal Dimensions measured with Fibonacci Channels:
⬇︎FC
+
= Cause ➔ Effect obstacles:
+⬆︎FC
Micro Fractal coverage:
FREMA BANDS:
SuperTrend indicator based on Buying and Selling Pressure:
We're at 2x Take Profit level based on Raw BSP metrics instead of ATR:
Why it matters:
We're at channel top and Buying Pressure is falling while at ongoing uptrend.
Spy Trading LevelsWell Well Well traders its been a min since I was on I'm BACK Wsop has come to an end for me after a grueling fight! But now bk to trading here is the setup lets get it P.S. I'm accumulating shorts medium term but will still hold calls in the short term as long as it stays above line
Good Luck
Main Focus List Review 8-4-24Going over our Main Focus list looking for clues as to how to position for the upcoming week. Remember we are Risk Managers first and foremost. no FOMO no GREED no Emotions. only price action. leave the emotions for the losing traders the ones that look to blame. it's my Fault if i didnt make $$$ last week.
SPY On The Rise! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 532.98
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 543.88
My Stop Loss - 526.43
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Close above daily anchored vwap on $spyI’m leaning long on AMEX:SPY after intraday close above daily anchored vwap with target towards 542
I bought calls near close on Friday will mange them on Monday morning
$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time.
Drop to $503-$494
Hard Bounce to $520
Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22'
Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
SPY IS A BUY+++ At $528 and $520 bounce to $527We are oversold on charts under 4 hours, and the 4 hour. One day chart has a way to go and for cloud support at $522. .5 Fib support is $528.51 was touched Friday. We should bonce to $547 then likely resume the decline based of fundamentals of a bubble economy surviving on printed money for decades and the irresponsible deficit spending since covid by both parties. I think we could have a final flush on Monday then bounce but we'll see.....
SPX: Stock Market Continues to Fall. The stock market on July 25, 2024, experienced significant movement, similar to the major trendline break in January 2022. Both periods saw heightened market volatility and uncertainty driven by macroeconomic factors.
In January 2022, the break was due to surging inflation and anticipated aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a sharp correction across major indices. By July 2024, although inflation had moderated, it continued to influence market sentiment. Persistent inflationary pressures can lead to higher input costs, squeezing corporate profit margins and dampening earnings growth.
Uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy was pivotal in both periods . In 2022, the market grappled with the pace and magnitude of rate hikes. In 2024, despite a potential shift towards rate cuts, the uncertainty about timing and extent added complexity to market dynamics.
Investor sentiment in both periods was characterized by heightened caution. In January 2022, fears of a prolonged tightening cycle led to significant sell-offs. By July 2024, concerns shifted to the sustainability of earnings growth and potential economic slowdown.
High valuations faced pressures in both periods. In January 2022, valuations became untenable amid rising interest rates, leading to corrections. In 2024, although valuations adjusted, concerns about whether earnings growth can sustain current levels persist. If earnings do not meet expectations, further downward adjustments in stock prices could occur.
Economic slowdown fears loom large. In 2022, the fear was that aggressive rate hikes could excessively slow the economy. In 2024, despite hopes for rate cuts, concerns about a broader economic slowdown impacting corporate profits and market performance remain.
External factors such as geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties add to the risks, potentially increasing market volatility and investor caution.
While there are differences between January 2022 and July 2024, the similarities highlight potential risks for further downturns. Investors should remain vigilant and consider appropriate hedging strategies to navigate potential market volatility and downside risks.
SPY forming Head and ShouldersSPY experienced worst week since 2020. SPY is currently forming a head and shoulders pattern indicating a further selloff towards 500. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SPY: Forecast & Trading Plan
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the SPY pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up.
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SPY friday close practice prior to 8.5 Pre MarketBearish wedge however I feel as though earning and FOMC was catalyst. See how weekend news goes
$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
Three Potential outcomes for the S&P 500We are seeing a clear correction in the market that has potential to turn into a full blown bear market due to a number of reasons such as rising unemployment, looming debt crisis, and geopolitical tensions. From my experience and analysis I see 3 possible outcomes in the coming weeks and months for the AMEX:SPY
The price starts to recover after another minor red day on August 5th, bouncing off support around 524.60, and will start to normalize back with the long-term bullish trend.
A head and shoulders pattern forms on the weekly chart, starting with a move down to 495, retracing back to 524.60, and then forcing a large downward move that stops just short of entering a bear market/ recession at the 200EMA (around the 450 price level), starting a new bull run as it recovers.
The events of situation 2 unfold the same way, however, price fails to bounce off the 200EMA, and we enter a full-blown recession, fueled by high unemployment, destabilization of the geopolitical climate, and civil unrest from the results of the US 2024 elections.
Two of the three predictions lead to more pain for bulls. Let’s hope situation #1 is what will happen.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and all statements made are for informational purposes formed from of my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.
