SPY LONG SET UP(BUY THE DIP)Entry 1 $500.00
Entry 2 $460.00
Stop loss $440.00
Take profit 1- $550.00
(Close 25%)
Take profit 2- $600.00
(Close 50%)
Take profit 3-$650.00
(Close 75%)
Take profit 4-$700.00
(Close 100%)
SPY trade ideas
SPY Back Up To Fill GapWe have a nice little gap above us and there is a good chance we can fill it. Also, we have a bull-flag formation that is likely to play out. Not financial advice.
Spy Target $500I'm Basically Taking A Swing Trade All The Way Down To the $500 Target with a stop loss of about $545ish most likely being as stubborn as I am Probably Load up more at that price lol, if we even see that price to be honest but in all reality my absolute Stop out will be $547-$549. I Will be updating this post throughout the week... And if you need more advice Ill be here as always and check out some of my New Free Indicators on TradingView to help maximize your returns and as always Goodluck and safe trades
The Oompa Loompas are here to WORKI get it, you're scared....But listen up, by June/July, we will be at all time highs. What Trump gave, was a signal that he wont let the stock market sink....To him, the stock market is the economy. It is not though, but to him, thats what it is. That was enough for wall street to buy buy buy.....knowing that Trump will do what he needs to do so the stock market doesnt collapse.
SPY Next Likely TargetFrom here we can see possibilities for yearly pivot and 200MA. 549 and 562 respectively.
OBV is ticking up, which helps support the idea of further upward price movement.
SPY at a Crossroad: Gamma Tug of War Into Next Week🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone.
* Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls.
* Support Zones:
* $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL)
* $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades)
* Resistance Levels:
* $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top)
* $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall)
* Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward.
* RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues.
🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX Insights
* Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics.
* Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone.
* Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection.
* PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526.
💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If SPY holds above $534-$536:
* Entry: $536 breakout
* Target: $548 → $555 → $560
* Stop: Below $526
* Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads.
Bearish Case:
If SPY loses $534 with momentum:
* Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540
* Target: $526 → $509
* Stop: Above $540
* Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week.
🧠 My Take
SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
DID THE S&P 500 BOTTOM? MASSIVE STOCK MARKET RALLY INCOMING????Our indicator just printed a super rare signal on the weekly chart, let's discuss what this means for the future of the stock market and why this may be one of the best buying opportunities for the long term.
Because historically, this indicator prints green when it's been the best time to buy to prepare for the next 5-10 years of bullish price action
Earnings Which Way Do We Go Pure TAStaying long took some off
see what earnings bring warning we can drop and continue lower to 460
Weekly stoch tuning up BUT has not broken the red line bottom up through 30%
no VOL
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Overview For 4-12 : Thank youThis video is mostly a big thank you for all the great comments and questions over the past few weeks.
I've been posting these videos on TradingView for almost a year and the types of viewers/followers I've been gaining is incredible.
You guys & gals have really impressed me with your questions and engagement. Many of you follow me for months without ever commenting or asking any questions.
I received a call from a client/follower in Alberta last night and he reported last week's gains at over 300% by following my videos.
I received a message from another TV follower saying he's been following my videos for many months and, after a bad loss a few years back, he has decided to give trading another go.
I've stated it before and I'll keep saying it.. I'm not trying to scam you out of anything. I'm trying to show you the RIGHT SKILLS and TECHNIQUES for you to learn to become a better, more skilled trader.
The way I look at it is like this...
If I can teach you half of what I know and see on the charts, then you guys will be able to achieve so much greater success and have gained/retained the knowledge to do it on your own.
You watch me do it over and over on these charts. Guess what - you are LEARNING at the same time.
Now, after a couple of years of doing this and following my videos, you've GAINED an education on how to trade more efficiently, manage risk more efficiently, and achieve your trading goals (I hope).
Right now, I'm getting messages/comments from people saying they are making 200%, 300%, 500%, or more every week or two from my videos.
That is absolutely incredible. I just want to urge you to remember I'm not 100% perfect in predicting the markets. No one EVER really is 100% perfect at it.
In the long run, as long as you don't get super greedy, you'll survive any minor losses and live to trade another day.
That is probably the most important thing I can teach you - trade within a proper scale to your RISK LEVEL. Never BET THE FARM on your trades. Always have a 50% to 70% cash reserve.
Anyway. Thank you. I really appreciate all of you.
Hope you enjoy this video.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY - RISK OF BEAR MARKET VERY REALTrumps tariffs is going to be the catalyst for a bear market that the US needs to have. I'm expecting a 30% - 40% drop at most but don't worry, it will be a good time to buy when the dust settles.
The RSI is painting bearish divergence on monthly. Big sign of drop.
The MACD is curving downwards. Also a big sign that we'll be dropping soon.
Bear cycles typically last only 1 year. But its alright, I'll be there to buy spy when its cheap because I have confidence in the US to produce cool new things and figure out new innovations.
Also intrest rates will drop, money printer go BRRR and dumb money flows back into the space.
SPY Trade Review – Potential Pop and Flop SetupI’m tracking a potential pop and flop scenario forming on SPY. There’s a setup for a possible 5.5% move higher, followed by the opportunity for a larger short of up to 15% toward final downside targets.
SPY and its key influencers, including the Magnificent Seven , are currently rebounding off significant support levels. This could allow for continued upside before running into major resistance.
As highlighted in the chart, we may see a further push higher of approximately 5.5% , taking us into the weekly/daily high support lost zone at $564 . If this level acts as firm resistance and price reverses, a break below $549.83 (our trigger for adding short exposure) could lead to a significant selloff.
Downside targets include:
- Target 1: $502
- Target 2: $476.30 (a potential new local low)
A daily or weekly close above $564.52 would invalidate this short setup.
This is a high time frame setup , but I’ve shown it on the 4-hour chart for greater clarity. Now we wait and see!
I SPY and link with US Debt..do you Waldo?Its not hard to find correlations in life...but this seems a little blatant. So I thought I would show that only one debt shelf ever resulted in no fall after it occurrs...an interesting finding...
But just think of this logic...If the bonds are rising in a solid manner to the toon of even the 3 month going from 2022 levels of .002% to now some 4.2% or so....why does anyone think that things can keep going up when you fund everything but what you need in the country.
Lets give you guys some homework:
how much debt was spent on new highway improvements on bridges and tunnels(i see you lincoln), expressways etc.
how much debt was used to build major power generation in Cali and NY so their brown outs aren't so bad....to which I say, those two states should just suck it up and allow more data centers so silly cat pics or anime can be generated on GPUs eh??
how much debt was actually spent on the poor condition of sports complexes or school infrastructure so to give children the ability to play...so that the NFL doesn't have to try for like 3 month to encourage play-60....only an hour of play folks...yeah, that'll keep the Coke sugars well balanced eh?
Finally how much debt was spent towards improving the very secondary and neglicted hard educations...or what some call vo-tech, which you need to repair/build these mass construction projects and splice cables over 200 feet in the air on mountainsides involving high tension wires after hurricanes like Helene barrel through places.
Yeah..well its about as much as the fellow "make this place great again" person has contributed their time and a bit of their NVDA or PLTR proceeds to a local community center or to a local youth developmental program for kids in rough neighborhoods....oh wait...that's for the government to do, so they can blame government for over spending on...the things above???
As two members of royalty I attended school with, both from active kings who sent a princess and prince to two of my schools said, "When they realize there are more of them then US, you begin to see a shift in attitude which makes US accountable. But when they think the few of US are more powerful then all of them combined you can see how your people believe in shadow governments or Illuminati( another name for "Deep State" back in that era..hmm where did that go eh??). Cause the whole government is made up of neighbors and the military is made up of college friends or past coworkers- but only simpletons think a title or a uniform/suit makes everything change- it doesn't".
another idea later tonight and linked in the comments after posting will show the 10 year yield and its relation to following crashes
2nd post of I SPY no reason for Bond shock as rates riseWhy is everyone shocked about rates rising as the market moves down...its seems to fit the logic as stated and is the Newtonian force-action see-saw:
You buy bonds and the interest rate goes down....you sell them and or don't purchase and they must go up in yield.
How has that been broken with the chart I have shown. Well it's due to outside structures forcing a "paper trade" kind of, technical analysis wishy washy, excuse of why things are not moving as they should.
Well, you didn't want to face the music after 2003 so the printer ripped right into the bank pockets, "protecting inflation from the little man". Well that caused 2008, which needed even more bank help even though they got a bunch since 2003 (see previous post and the debt rocketing after 2008)
So now you need to slam more debt, circa 2008, and the bonds are being bought cause the market basically went nowhere for another 6 or 7 years.....But then there was a change to how things were run....a loosening per say:
Now the banks can play in the stock market once the downturn of 16 started and the Entertainer was brought in to keep people pacified as things were turning down( almost like now, eh?). You see the magic rainbow that occurred from '15 to '16, well that was a last ditch effort to save the banks coughing up blood from terrible investments. So as I said, the Entertainer was brought in to pacify everyone to allow for the cutting of rates and "Dow to the Moon"...(kinda reminds you of "bitcoin to the moon" now, no?) and that worked until 2018...one more cut and print jober while stacking the market was attempted but now the foreign banks were going down and China refused to help the US after its initial injection in 2008.
So, rates are slashed, you crash in 19 and you need something to kind of start to take people's attention off how everything is going down around them(kinda like now with tariffs or fentenyl crap, eh?)....maybe to target that big nation who refused any more bond help or financial backing...like China maybe. Hence the cough was rolled out to allow emergency powers acts to engage and the secrecy of money moving was shrouded from eyes under said act...kinda like in 2001...huh, wonder if related somehow.
Well this was supposed to cripple foreign entities, especially Russia, since the US was already arming Ukraine under the Entertainer who no one cared to see what he signed off on, both his planeloads of money and weapons to the Z-man...then that Shoulder sticker which conveniently everyone has forgotten he solely pushed and claimed "beautiful responsibility for"---didn't that ruin career and cost lives...hmm, 2001 connection again, who knows, but you know.
So why does this explain the bonds turning around...it's due to the countries of the East seeing the coordinated NATO response to said cough and the banking sectors getting mass injections of cash to try and undo liabilities that went bad. However, this caused them to turn that cash into working capital by pumping stocks and signing mass M&A deals and all from all the companies going under or being crippled from the cough...again, damn near as convenient as those passports being fireproof, lucky be a lady.
So now you engage in the bonds climbing with the market cause there is no money in bonds yielding like 1 or less percent...but when you have unemployment money, crypto money, and payment protection plan money screaming into the market...you stop it all for midterm elections and then the crash of '22 in fall occurs.
But hold on to your laces buddy, Pelosi Put is to the rescue with a Chips act which fuels all the "AI" to suddenly become a thing apparently, even though its been in every video game since like 2008-9 and was basically the Alexa and Siri,....so way to fall for that one people. Well that caused dollar stocks to rip into 100, 200, even a 3000 dollar Mexican grille stock... burritos with a 800-900 PE ratio...good analysis there guys.
So the bonds feel neglected and have to hike up their skirt a little more to get attention, to which Russia catches a sniff and asked the US to hold its Beer while the Bear goes to town on their Proxy they were arming since the Entertained was slipped in, in 2016. So The Bear gets sanctioned to "hell and back" while having foreign accounts and treasuries either seized or frozen (hey, where did the 'seize not freeze' story go..hmm). So now no foreigner can trust holding US based assets and the purge begins which really moves the bonds in a fast hurry.
Finally, you have the genius idea to slap the Dragon's ass while he is busy making your stuff that you agree to teach him how to make and then build for you- well everyone saw that public pissing match and reveled XI has the ability to be a sundial if its a clear day out, and he delivered the worst pain shot right back..."Sup Bra', did you say something- we forgot we even do business with you again"
So now you have a country with a population that can buy the hell out of anything, not buying anything due to being a culture of savers(unlike the credit card addicts of the US) suddenly being encouraged to improve their lives and become a tiny bit American and have like heated slippers and maybe a water sprinkler for their dog. So if you think that Uncle Sam is the back breaker of the dear 'ol Dragon...you may need to visit your nearest supply house and see what is on the barcode sticker; if it says USA, see where its base metals, resins, and catalyst chemicals are from...then ask who needs who.
Basically....you slashed rates rather than having like 4 recessions as of now...kinda like the Ozempic people who can't go back in their photo gallery and pinpoint the year they just suddenly were dangerously overweight...nope, just woke up to it...couldn't do a more meat heavy, low insulin driving meal..."gots to keep Frito Lays and the boys at Kraft/Nabisco employed". Well you skipped 4 recessions and you froze foreign assets for no reason and then you decided to let banks play with free money to prop the stock market up- *see JPM has ass earning outside of trading desk...PS MBS and Commercial Real Estate is dead :)
>>So that's why bond yields go up and they need the fed to cut...but it seems since 2022 the 3 month bond went from 0.002% to 4.3 or so as of today....good one fellas, practically within 2 years and you scream higher causing all this debt to roll over at higher rates, like aforementioned Commercial Real Estate having to refinance every 5, 8, or 11 years per many contracts...well 5 years ago a 3 month would be cheap...even a 7 or 10 year at about a percent or less ...but not now...some of my buddies are saying 8% is a dream and 15% is becoming a nightmare in that space...but hey, be like a fat American...make everyone do stuff for you and then wonder why you are on Ozempic and now have intestinal peristalsis problems and feel like SH1t all the time :)
$SPY ONCE IN A LIFETIME Nailed it at 500! Nailed it at 500! Gave yall this MEASURED MOVE LIVE STEP BY STEP Bear Leg Completion
I will be looking to ADD TO WINNERS NEXT WEEK
Drop a "❤️" and I will update you DAILY step by step
We just entered a bull cycleEvery time we went within the support lines of my indicator it marked the bottom
Every time in the last 11 years
Completing the B waveToday looks like it is a completion of a B wave, so I expect C down into Monday and Tuesday. I'm looking for some selling into the end of the day.
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising.
Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday.
The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020.
📌 High IV = High Theta
When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them.
Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first:
It’s definitely not a cheerful chart!
* Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445.
* HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip.
* Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now.
I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure.
🤔 What Can We Do?
Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit.
Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on.
Buying Put Options …. no way?
First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases.
Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio.
🐂 If You’re Bullish
This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound.
- Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV.
- Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money.
Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail
If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days).
If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further).
Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread
In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on.
🐻 If You’re Bearish
I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward).
⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish
If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed.
Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive!
Conclusion
The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
$SPYStill in the downward megaphone, but short term is riding the ascending trend.
Lets see how it plays out.
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management.
Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart)
Current Price Zone: Around $528.45
Key Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b)
- Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b)
- Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16
Support Levels:
- Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short)
- Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a)
- Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a)
- Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief):
- Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level)
- Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk.
Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear):
Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support)
- Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support)
- Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area)
- Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals.
Thought Process & Final Thoughts
The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
"Disbelief Rally" back to 52 week HighsPrior plunges below this custom weekly Keltner channel have a good track record of highlighting buying opportunities. In simile terms.. when markets plunge too much and too fast, a great accumulation occurs with wild oscillations. After the accumulation will come a "disbelief rally" where the market will continue to rip higher in a concave down curve to the previous 52 week high leaving market participants in disbelief that we didn't retest the plunge levels again. Each dip in this "disbelief rally" becomes a great opportunity for long-style trades.
