Short - SPYPrice testing the neckline - yellow line at ~$588.20
Elliot Wave 12345 ABC: Wave 5 completed. Expect for Wave A
Support line to enter put: ~$582.15
Put option expiration 5/23/25 or 5/27/25
PT1: ~$569.20
PT2: ~555.80
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-3 : Carryover in Carryover modeToday's pattern suggests we may see more upward price consolidation/trending.
As many of you already know, I've been tracking the Excess Phase Peak pattern all the way up this incredible rally from the $480 lows on the SPY. In my opinion, we have moved into the "island" topping phase where price is struggling to break either upward or downward right now.
Currently, price seems to be attempting to break to the upside after yesterday's meltup. Today should be interesting because we could see solid REJECTION of yesterday's move with a big breakdown move. We'll see how things play out.
The SPY trend is still BULLISH based on my research. Thus, until and IF we get a breakdown, traders should continue to expect a MELT UP type of trend in the SPY/QQQ.
Hedging trades is a good idea right now.
Gold and Silver had a big move early this week and have not stalled into a sideways FLAGGING trend. By my estimates, the APEX of the flag will come near 1900-2100 today (Wednesday 6-3). That is when I think Gold/Silver will attempt to move into extreme volatility and attempt to make another big move.
I hope it is to continue the upside price trend, as this breakout move needs to push higher (breaking recent highs) for metals to move into a new dominant upward price trend.
BTCUSD is trading sideways - possibly setting up that DOUBLE-TOP pattern I suggested was going to take place on 5-20-25. Now, with Bitcoin leading the US markets by about 3-5 days (on average), we'll see if BTCUSD can attempt to move into another rally phase or if BTCUSD breaks below the $103k level and moves into a new downward price phase.
In my opinion, look out below.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🌐 Markets Rally on Chinese PMI Surprise
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 in May, signaling expansion in smaller export-focused factories. Asian markets jumped, lifting U.S. equity futures as investors recalibrated global growth expectations .
📉 U.S. Factory Orders Remain Soft
April’s U.S. Factory Orders fell 0.4%, underscoring persistent weakness in industrial demand amid elevated input costs and trade uncertainty. Declines in durable-goods orders weighed on industrial stocks .
🏦 Fed’s Bowman to Speak on Economic Outlook
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to deliver remarks at 2:00 PM ET, likely emphasizing caution on future rate moves given mixed data. Markets will watch for any shifts in tone regarding inflation risks and labor-market resilience .
🛢️ Oil Prices Slip on Rising U.S. Inventories
U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to API data, pressuring oil prices lower and dragging energy shares down as supply concerns outweighed strong demand signals .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 4:
2:00 PM ET – Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Remarks on economic outlook and monetary policy, watched for any hints on the Fed’s next moves.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY in Wave 5This week I am expecting a final rally to 608 to finish wave 5. SPY broke above 595.50 resistance today, but with RSI at incredibly high levels on the 1HR chart I am anticipating a minor pullback tomorrow and the final push up to occur Thursday and Friday. Jobless claims are released Thursday and unemployment rate released on Friday. These are the two major data points coming out this week that will likely drive the market upward to finish this final wave up. For the remainder of the month, I am looking for major selling to begin and will likely lead us down to the 530 gap fill.
Cheers
SPY Inverse Head & Shoulders Played Out Clean – Bounce from Buy Just wanted to follow up on the AMEX:SPY idea I published yesterday — this played out exactly as expected 👇🏾
We got that clean pullback right into the 588.50–589.90 buy zone, which aligned perfectly with high-volume support. From there, price reversed and gave us that upside move back toward 593+.
Even more validating: the pattern that formed was a textbook inverse head and shoulders
🔹 Left Shoulder → formed near 586
🔹 Head → at the deeper 585 level
🔹 Right Shoulder → bounced cleanly off the buy zone
🔹 Neckline Break → confirmed the move above 591.12
This is why I always say: have your levels ready and wait for confirmation. No chasing, just execution.
🔑 Buy zone held
📊 Volume-backed support
📈 Continuation in progress
Will continue monitoring for follow-through above 593.46. If bulls hold control, next resistance is near 596–597.
SPY Major Confluence ZoneSPY has a major upside confluence zone around 625
Looking for a test of this area in the coming weeks.
The level is about 5% away.
Let the melt up begin.
SPY New All Time Highs IncomingThe #SPY weekly chart is so bullish but don't take my word for it.
Simply look at the weekly bullish crossover that occurred between the 7 week & the 20 Week MA.
The last time this occurred was in Nov 2023 and the markets ripped 19% before having a major 3 week pullback and then another soaring continuation higher.
$SPY WILL 100% Hit ATH By End Of July! SPY is loaded up for a breakout run. All-time highs isn't even a question, but when is — and my bet is before July ends , honestly before end of June. In this idea, I go over key support levels, resistance zones, and the momentum shifts pointing toward a bullish continuation.
Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
$SPY market COULD trend till nov25' (confirmation this month)I like to write today,
I see AMEX:SPY at a critical point right now, Im ultra long stocks and hedged today with a short AMEX:SPY ,
because:
We reached the target of a quarterly trend and didnt go higher for a long time.
We have a strange political situation which news affect the markets (more than usually) (positive and negative).
Were coiling at the top again after an insane rally from the lows.
But there are reasons to be bullish:
If we stay up this month we can form another longterm signal (6 month) until end of october and see an insane continuation rally. Target would be about 720 in AMEX:SPY and I guess its above all targets from US Banks for S&P.
Lets see whats coming and play it safe and with some calculated risks, its not safe out there but there are many oppurtunities.
1 step better every day, every week, every month and every year - my wish for you.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-3 : BreakAway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move into a Breakaway type of pattern. I believe that Breakaway may be to the downside, but I could be wrong.
Price has been struggling in a sideways consolidated range over the past 2+ weeks. I believe this range sets up an "Island" type of price formation that is indicative of a topping type of pattern.
Currently, I'm tracking layers of different TA techniques to try to see how price may react in the future. Right now, price appears to be trapped within a range, has recently broken below the STDDEV channel, and may be moving into a very volatile FAILURE/REJECTION phase.
This is where price may attempt to resume trending (up or down) and I believe the move logical move is to the downside at this point.
Gold/Silver had a HUGE MOVE yesterday and are not contracting a bit. I still believe Metals will rally higher and attempt to break to new ATH levels.
BTCUSD is trapped in a sideways price range after reaching new ATH levels recently. Many of you are aware I'm expecting a rollover-top pattern to setup in BTCUSD (and the US markets) and I believe it is just a matter of time to see how the markets react to policies, news, and economic function/data.
Should be an interesting (possibly sideways) day today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY: Bullish Outlook Based on Market StructureETF Strategy: Still Buying for 2025 Growth
I'm continuing to buy SPY and adding other strong ETFs like VEA, QQQ, and TQQQ. The market structure looks solid after the recent bounce, and I’m positioning for continued growth through the rest of 2025. My goal is to close the year with a strong percentage gain.
SPY 1HR Pullback to Volume Buy Zone Before Bullish ContinuationI’m watching the 588.52–589.94 range as a high-probability buy zone on the SPY 1-hour chart. This zone aligns with a strong volume shelf, indicating prior institutional accumulation and heavy transaction flow.
After a sharp move into the 591s, we’re seeing some hesitation and potential for a healthy pullback. The plan is to wait for price action to return to the buy zone, show signs of strength (e.g., hammer candle, strong bounce), and look for a continuation toward the previous high of 593.46 and possibly higher.
🔹 Buy Zone: 588.52–589.94
🔹 Volume Profile Support: High node at ~589
🔹 Resistance: 591.12 short-term, then 593.46
🔹 Stop Loss: Below 586.76 to avoid false breakouts
🔹 Target: 593.50+ with higher timeframe continuation in mind
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels).
SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025.
SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet.
The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600.
The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567).
Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.
600 before 580?, Jolts, Jobs Data, calling China🎮 What’s Happening Now:
1. The market trades like a simulation.
Levels get hit to the penny and reverse.
Fake breakouts, engineered sweeps, and chop-fests designed to trigger stops and crush premium.
It’s like trading inside a casino that reads your mind and moves the exit every five minutes.
2. AI + HFT firms front-run sentiment and order flow.
They scan Reddit, Discord, X, TradingView, and even order book imbalances in real time.
The second you find an edge, they’re already there—front-running or fading it.
3. Implied volatility and option decay weaponized.
They bait you in with movement, then nuke premiums before you can cash out.
If you're not closing green trades fast, they flip red—"correct trades, wrong time frame" syndrome.
⚖️ What Retail Is Up Against:
Smart order routers sniffing your orders.
Liquidity gaps intentionally created then filled.
Volume surges that mean nothing—just decoys.
AI-driven volume clusters that draw you in and dump you out.
💡 What some traders are doing to adapt:
Selling premium with iron condors, calendars, butterflies—less directional, more probability-based.
Trading futures or futures options, where fills are better and data is cleaner.
Sniping high-R:R setups, holding nothing overnight unless it's ironclad.
Using AI to fight AI—some build their own bots to scan volume shifts, OI skews, or gamma pins.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release
🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks
Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX
📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations
China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists.
10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends.
1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Rally Maybe As of know we in n mans land
have to wait see we break 613 I think they do
why QE behind the scene
have a hedge in case we drop
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Post Market UpdateHuge move for metals today. Absolutely incredible.
Hope you GOT SOME.
BTCUSD and the SPY/QQQ stalled somewhat flat today. SPY was up 0.50% - nothing huge.
Going to be interesting to see how things play out in the Asian/European markets tonight.
Buckle up. Could be some very big moves hitting this week.
GET SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Inflection at Fib Resistance | Dual-Scenario🗓️ June 2, 2025 | 📈 1H Chart | ⚠️ Risk-Off Signal Building?
🔹 Current Price: $592.98
🔺 Key Resistance: $595.54–$597.36 (1.0–1.236 Fib Extension)
🔻 Gap Support: $565.51
🎯 Bullish Target: $604.05–$604.90 (1.382–1.618 Extension)
🔎 Technical Structure:
Trendline Rejection Zone: SPY is pressing into a multi-tap descending resistance. Any failure to break convincingly could invite strong selling.
Fibonacci Overlap: $595–597 aligns with major Fib extensions—potential exhaustion zone.
Gap Unfilled: The $565.51 gap remains untested and could magnet price in the event of a rejection.
Volatility Funnel Forming: Narrowing structure implies imminent directional move.
🌐 Macro Landscape:
Fed Watch: The June 12 FOMC is the next volatility trigger. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in only a ~10% probability of a cut. Hawkish hold expected.
Earnings Season Winds Down: Lack of new fundamental catalysts could increase technical relevance.
Liquidity: Reverse repo balances are falling, suggesting reduced short-term liquidity—typically bearish for risk assets.
Inflation Watch: Sticky Core PCE remains above 2.75% YoY—Fed unlikely to ease aggressively.
📉 Risk Management:
Short Bias Setup:
Entry: $595–597 rejection
Stop: $598.5–599 (Above 1.236 Fib)
Target: $577 (mid-Fib) → $565.51 (gap close)
R:R ~3:1
Bullish Breakout Plan:
Entry: Confirmed breakout + hold above $598
Stop: $593.50
Target: $604–605
R:R ~2.5:1
Volatility Hedge: Consider using VIX calls or SPX put spreads to hedge directional risk around key Fed dates.
🎲 Probabilities:
Scenario Chance Commentary
Pullback to $565 Gap 65% Strong resistance + weakening breadth + macro headwinds
Breakout to $604 35% Requires bullish macro surprise or liquidity-driven melt-up
🔔 Action Plan:
Fade rallies into resistance unless a high-volume breakout confirms. Use stop discipline and hedge exposure into macro events. Stay nimble.
💬 Thoughts? Are we due for a flush or prepping for a face-ripper?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY may attempt a GAP Breakaway in Trend mode (likely BULLISH). But, the Russia/Ukraine war is overshadowing that potential pattern as big news this morning.
From what I can tell, Russia is mounting a large-scale attack after Ukraine launched a big drone attack targeting Russian aircraft.
No matter how you slide and dice this news, it means this conflict is entering a new phase. A possibly much more destructive phase for all involved.
Gold and Silver are reacting to this news by skyrocketing higher. I believe this upward move in metals could continue for many days/weeks as long as this conflict continues to grow.
BTCUSD is trading slightly downward right now, but not as much as I would have expected based on the news. We'll see how BTCUSD plays out this week and if we get a bigger breakdown over time.
Currently, if you had actively hedged your positions, I believe you will be OK this week as Metals seem to be the big movers right now. The SPY/QQQ should react to this war news, but being somewhat isolated from this conflict economically, we may not see any huge moves in the US markets today.
Overall, hedge your positions to protect against surprise news/risks and try to prepare for the longer-term swings. Volatility will stay elevated over the next few weeks..
So, GET SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Ahead of June PMI
Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 3), with economists forecasting a reading below 50.0, signaling continued factory contraction amid slowing global demand and lingering tariff uncertainty.
🛢️ OPEC+ Meeting to Determine Output Path
On Thursday, OPEC+ convenes to decide production levels for July. Expectations center on a modest output cut extension to support prices, with Brent crude trading near $65/bbl ahead of the decision.
💻 Tech Stocks Eye Semiconductor Legislation
Investors are monitoring Congress’s debate over the Chips Act extension. Senate committee hearings this week could accelerate funding for U.S. chip manufacturing—an upside catalyst for NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and $MU.
🌐 China’s Caixin PMI Signals Pivot
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June 6) is expected to edge above 50.0, indicating a stabilization in smaller export-focused factories. A better-than-expected print could lift global risk sentiment.
🏢 Fed Officials Remain Dovish
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams speak this week, reiterating that rate hikes are “on pause.” Their remarks should clarify the Fed’s view on inflation cooling and potential rate cuts late 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, June 2:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Tracks dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods—an early gauge of industrial demand.
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Measures U.S. factory-sector health. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending (April)
Reports monthly change in total construction outlays—key for housing and infrastructure trends.
1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction
Benchmark auction that can shift yield curve and influence $SPY/ SP:SPX positioning.
📅 Wednesday, June 4:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods. (Repeat for emphasis on industrial slowdown.)
2:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Comments on inflation and monetary policy outlook.
📅 Thursday, June 5:
8:30 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (April)
Tracks number of unfilled positions—a barometer of labor-market tightness.
10:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting)
Details on production quotas—critical for energy-sector flow.
📅 Friday, June 6:
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
Monthly change in U.S. employment—core for Fed policy outlook.
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (May)
Percentage of labor force unemployed—key gauge of labor-market health.
8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (May)
Tracks wage trends—important for consumer spending and inflation.
10:00 AM ET: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May, preliminary)
Measures health of China’s smaller export-oriented factories.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY dowsing roadmap for this weekI've been posting the weekly readings my dowsing has given for SPY's potential price movement the past couple months and it's really interesting.
I go week by week, but am starting to include each day of the week looking forward. I left on the chart the prior notations from those ideas I've posted & you can reference what I had versus what actually occurred.
This week is quite negative. I've had the number around $562-62 coming up for a while, & beyond that, around the $542-48 area as I recall. I don't really get any positive gain over last week's close.
We'll see what happens.
Spy Road To $600 🔥 SPY Price Thesis – Breakout or Breakdown Setup
SPY is setting up for a potential breakout above the $595 extension level, with upside to $602–$608. However, $582 remains a key support. A break below $582 could trigger a momentum flush to $567.
Level
🔵 $595.60 – Fib Extension (161.8%) from the March → April swing High-probability breakout trigger
🟢 $602.40 – $608.20 – Fib 200% and exhaustion zone from the same swing Final extension if bullish momentum sustains
🟡 $582.00 – Institutional VWAP reaccumulation zone Strong demand/support
🔴 $567.40 – Prior weekly pivot low + anchored VWAP bounce level Breakdown target if $582 fails
Trend Signal: Bullish bias confirmed — Higher Highs + EMA Cloud still pointing up
Momentum: MACD Histogram turning back up, crossover brewing
Volume: Above average on green days; no true distribution yet
Supertrend Zone: Still green on 4H and 1D
Custom Signal Confluence Score: > 75% (Strong Buy Zone aligning above $588)
🔁 Fibonacci Analysis
Measured from April swing low (~$505) to May high (~$573):
🔹 161.8% = $595.60
🔹 200% = $602.40
🔹 261.8% = $608.20 (max extension target)
📉 On Breakdown:
From $573 high to $558 retracement low:
0.618 retrace = $582.00 ← Current support zone
Full retrace & bear trap zone = $567.40
Smart Money Strategy:
Above $595: Long breakout entries (Calls, zero DTE)
Below $582: Hedge with Puts or inverse ETF
Key Catalyst Triggers: Jobs data, CPI, or Fed commentary could force the move
As Always Safe Trades and JoeWtrades
