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Magnificent Value Index with Opacity CandlesThis script idea is rather old but very enlightening about the current state of the market. It looks at the RSI or MFI values of all Mag 7 stocks, averages them out and compares it to qqq's rsi or mfi as a differential. Real shame tradingview doesn't allow free users to participate in publishing indicators and it's a real shame the war their employees support is being lost. Make whatever conclusions you will from this. Good luck, we're all living in a global idiocratic world now ruled by people infected with Affluenza .
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 4, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 March Employment Report Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March employment report, with forecasts predicting an addition of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. This data will provide insights into the labor market's health and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy.​ 🇺🇸💬 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Address: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 11:25 AM ET. Investors will be closely monitoring his remarks for any indications regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of recent market volatility.​ 🇺🇸📈 Market Reaction to 'Liberation Day' Tariffs: Following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day" tariffs, the markets experienced significant declines. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6%, marking the worst trading day since 2020. Investors are bracing for continued volatility as the market digests the potential economic impacts of these tariffs. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, April 4: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +140,000​ Previous: +151,000 Indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 4.1%​ Previous: 4.1%​ Represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3%​ Previous: +0.3%​ Measures the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Franco trade 0.0//@version=5 strategy("OBV + Moving Averages Strategy", overlay=true) // 參數設置 length_OBV = input(1, "OBV 增量") // OBV的變動閥值 length_maVolume = input(50, "50日均量") // 50日均量 length_maShort = input(5, "5日均線") // 5日均線 length_maLong = input(13, "13日均線") // 13日均線 take_profit = input(0.1, "止盈比例 (10%)") // 10%止盈 stop_loss = input(0.05, "止損比例 (5%)") // 5%止損 // 計算技術指標 obvValue = ta.cum(ta.volume * math.sign(ta.change(close))) // OBV指標 maVolume = ta.sma(volume, length_maVolume) // 50日均量 maShort = ta.sma(close, length_maShort) // 5日均線 maLong = ta.sma(close, length_maLong) // 13日均線 // 買入條件 buy_condition = ta.crossover(maShort, maLong) and // 5日均線上穿13日均線 obvValue > ta.highest(obvValue , length_OBV) and // OBV創新高 volume > maVolume // 成交量大於50日均量 // 賣出條件 sell_condition = ta.crossunder(maShort, maLong) or // 5日均線跌破13日均線 obvValue < ta.lowest(obvValue , length_OBV) or // OBV走弱 strategy.position_size > 0 and (strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + take_profit) < close or // 達到止盈目標 strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stop_loss) > close) // 達到止損目標 // 執行交易策略 if buy_condition strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) if sell_condition strategy.close("Long")
AMEX:SPY
by fungso94
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.​ 📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$76.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 53.5​ Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Divergence - Bullish Comeback?SPY is showing quite a significant bullish divergence on the Daily timeframe. This appears to concur with a potential double-bottom formation. We also see the RSI beginning to poke up through it's moving average: Alongside this we see a Rug Pull target on the 4h timeframe of the ES1! S&P futures ticker. Rug-pull events on this ticker have seen a great degree of accuracy over the past few years, as seen below: This rug-pull target alongside strong divergence on the higher timeframes indicates a high probability the markets will trend towards the upside in the near future.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketTraveler
House of Cards - $585 before the crashHouse of Cards - $585 before the crash I'm unable to update my previous idea that I originally posted in February when AMEX:SPY was at the top. Going to make this brief and will add screenshots and additional notes once the structure of Wave (B) is confirmed or invalidated. On the 500R chart ($5), the price has risen in a distinct 3-wave pattern labelled A-B-C, with C reaching the 1.236 extension of A and finding resistance at the 100SMA (yellow). The low of Wave (A) respected the boundary of the lower line of the regression trend I have added to the chart. While this trend started prior to what I am considering Wave (A), I still think it provides a good target for the top of the retracement. Wave (c) of A of (B) (still following me?) is not confirmed as complete yet. It could extend as far as $584 without pulling back, however I anticipate the market building more liquidity on the way up while burning options in the process. I bought 3/28 $570p at the end of the day in case we see a 50%-61.8% pullback to $560-$563 by the end of the week. If that happens, we should have enough room to reach the upper band at $585, which would be a little over a 50% retracement of Wave (A). This would also cause the price to touch the 200 SMA (green), which is common in the first major retracement of a bear market. Lastly, from a psychological perspective, the market reached an overwhelmingly bearish consensus from mid-February to mid-March. Sentiment during Wave (a) was mostly bearish, but sentiment has shifted positive since the price entered Wave (c) and gapped up on Monday, resulting in a >+1% day. This sets the stage for a rug pull and subsequent bear trap for late sellers who will assume the downtrend has resumed prematurely. We'll see how this plays out. I'll switch to calls if a higher high is made Wednesday 3/26. Good luck to all.
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
4
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 2, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is set to announce new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aiming to align U.S. import duties with those imposed by other countries on American goods. This move is expected to impact various sectors, including automotive and manufacturing, and may lead to market volatility as investors react to potential shifts in trade policies. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Indicates the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, reflecting manufacturing demand.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY UpdateIt appears that intermediate (A) had OML to give us before it was finished. Price literally moved $0.08 cents below the larger 1.236 and then gave us a reaction. We also got better pos div completing the reqs for a healthier consolidation higher. If we have in fact bottomed, then I would expect the ensuing price action to resemble the dotted line I have drawn on the chart. This doesn't mean that price will follow this pattern to the T. It is just what a standard abc pattern would appear like. Don't forget that b waves are extremely complex more times than not, so that could alter the way this pattern gets carved out. Also, the dotted line may look straight, but the structure will be far from it. People often times forget that price doesn't move in one direction, and there will be choppy overlapping moves. Regardless on how the pattern turns out, if the (A) wave is in fact complete, then the target box is the standard place for intermediate (B) to terminate at. I expect this next move to take 2-4 months if it is to compare to the time duration of the (A) wave. There are no rules governing duration, though. Technically speaking, (B) could be over by the end of the week. The odds of that happening are extremely low, but it is possible.
AMEX:SPY
by TSuth
SPY Shows Strong BOS, But Faces Gamma Resistance at $563 (?)Market Structure (1H – SMC View): * Price rebounded after BOS at ~$552 and has since broken multiple minor structure levels to the upside. * Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirm bullish shift, with recent CHoCH validating demand zone below $550. * Price is consolidating near a supply zone around $561–$563 which acted as a prior CHoCH zone. Key Price Zones: * Demand Zone (Support): $546–$552 * Supply Zone (Resistance): $561–$563 (where price currently sits) * Macro Support: $550 = PUT wall + gamma support * Micro Resistance: $563 = strong GEX call resistance Trendlines + Price Action: * Clean stair-step move up into resistance. * Price approaching apex of recent flag-like structure; breakout confirmation needed. * Watch for either rejection at this gamma wall ($563) or breakout continuation above. Indicators: * MACD: Bullish crossover still intact but showing slight flattening—watch for histogram weakness. * Stoch RSI: Near overbought, curling—possible minor pullback or consolidation. * 9 EMA > 21 EMA: Trend remains bullish for now. Options Sentiment & GEX (from GEX Chart): * IVR: 41.8 — moderately elevated, shows short-term volatility interest. * IVx Avg: 25.4 — indicating steady option pricing. * Put/Call Ratio: 84.5% puts — extremely defensive positioning in options market. * GEX: 🚦Red, Yellow, Green — Neutral-to-bearish gamma zone. * Major GEX Levels: * Resistance / Gamma Wall: $563 – Highest positive NETGEX (major level to watch). * Support / Gamma Cushion: $550–$555 – Includes PUT wall and GEX support. Scenarios to Watch: 🟢 Bullish Case: * Break & hold above $563 → potential rally toward $568+ * Confirmation of continued structure shift and gamma squeeze likely if open interest reshuffles upward. 🔴 Bearish Case: * Rejection at $563 + failure to hold $560 → fast pullback to $555 or test of $550 demand zone. * Watch for bearish divergence in MACD or failure to maintain EMA trend alignment. Trade Ideas (Not Financial Advice): * Scalp Long: If price confirms breakout above $563 with volume, target $568+ * Put Credit Spread or Long Calls: If holding above $560 with strong tape. * Fade Setup: If SPY rejects $563 with bearish engulfing or momentum stalling, consider short to $555–$550. 🧠 Final Thoughts: SPY is at a decision point. Gamma wall at $563 could act as a ceiling unless there’s sufficient momentum + institutional call flow to drive a breakout. FOMC or macro catalysts could also be trigger points. Stay nimble. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
FULL MOON and SPYHello traders! One of the great legends, OSHO, explains that if the moon has enough power to cause turbulence in the oceans, then why can't it affect human beings thinking and behaviors when the human body is made up of roughly 60% water? OSHO further explains that in history many people have been enlightened and many become mentally disturbed on days like a FULL MOON, and he explained that there must be a connection between planets positions and human behaviors. Now, if it comes to trading SPY based on the moon phases, then I have backtested a few full-moon dates, and I have found something interesting that makes me think of incorporating a full-moon strategy while trading SPY/SPX or any other major index. I am not promoting astrology or abnormal ideas, but I want to share my research with you all because I found a connection and patterns in the behavior of SPY and the full moon. You are not forced to think about astrology in trading, but having knowledge and the ability to see patterns in the world can help you build your intuitive thinking and deep subconscious knowledge. This year, taking Los Angeles as a reference, full moon dates were on Jan 13, Feb 12, and March 13. On January 13, the price showed a bullish run all day with low and high points of about 575.36 and 581.69, respectively. The similar bullish run was observed on February's full moon day, i.e., on 12th February, when SPY showed a low of 598.41 and a high of 604.52, making the market bullish all day. In contrast, we have observed a sharp decline in SPY on March 13, 2025 (full moon), which could seem to invalidate the full-moon strategy, but in the long run, SPY and the SPX Index remain bullish most of the time. Carefully observing previous year (2024) full-moon dates, I have found that SPY opened 4 times gap-up on full moon dates (May 23 2024, July 21 2024 (market off but gap-up next session), October 17 2024, December 15 2024 (market off but gap-up next trading session). 5 times out of 12 were classified as bullish to strongly bullish: January 20 2024 (Bullish after 11:00 AM PST), March 25 2024 (sideways market but bullish overall), April 23 2024 (Bullish), August 19 2024 (bullish), and September 18 2024 (bullish after 9:00 AM PST). The market remains gap-down and bearish two times on February 24 2024, and on November 15 2024. Now, since I have found that the SPX Index remains bullish on most of the FULL MOON dates, and the chances of a gap-up opening on or the next day of the FULL MOON (in case the market is closed on the FULL MOON) are very high based on the results obtained from the PY 2024 and 2025 previous months. The next FULL MOON is on Saturday, 12th April 2025, and the market is closed on this date; therefore, on 14th April 2025, if the market repeats itself, then I can expect SPY to open gap-up, and it would be interesting to see if FULL MOON really has the power to influence the stock market. Let’s give it a try, and on 11th April, 2025, if the market gives signs of huge buying pressure, then I will be buying some calls expiring April 14th, 2025, to test the full moon strategy. I am the only writer of this article, so there are high chances that I might have made some mistakes while publishing. Therefore, I would be happy to see if you can correct me if I'm wrong or if you can share your own knowledge and insights about the relationship between MOON and SPY. Thoughts and comments?
AMEX:SPYLong
by billionaire_guru
5
SPY at a Pivotal Zone – Bounce or Breakdown? 🧠 Market Structure + Price Action (1H) * Trend: Downtrend confirmed. Recent Break of Structure (BOS) followed a Change of Character (CHoCH) from bulls to bears. * Bearish momentum intensified after SPY broke support near 570.90, then plummeted through 564.85 and 558.11 key demand levels. * Current price: 554.15 — bouncing slightly within a local demand/reaction box, but still under selling pressure. * Price is now consolidating below structure, but inside a potential reaction zone (possible dead cat bounce or minor retracement). 🔍 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) * CHoCH & BOS align with institutional exit behavior. The BOS confirms bearish intent. * SPY has entered a minor demand zone, but hasn’t reclaimed any bullish market structure yet. * If it breaks below 549.68, the next support zone opens toward the 540s. 🔁 Indicators MACD: * MACD is starting to curve up, with histogram showing decreasing red momentum – a potential bounce brewing. Stoch RSI: * Oversold condition with both lines crossing upward — supports a short-term relief rally or retracement. 🔥 GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis * IVR: 37.8 (Moderate); IVx Avg: 22.6 * Put Positioning: Very high at 71% — bears are loaded up. * GEX Sentiment: * GEX is red 🔴🔴🔴 — strong gamma exposure to puts, favoring downward pressure. * Highest negative NETGEX / PUT Support at 555.83, which is just above current price — this acts as a magnet and pivot. * If SPY stays below this level, dealer hedging accelerates selling. * Major Put Walls at: * 545: GEX8 at -22% * 544-540: Very deep bearish gamma — potential acceleration if we break lower. * Call Resistance (Gamma Wall): * 573 → 577 → 580 zone = Gamma ceiling. * Dealers short calls here and hedge by selling, which adds resistance on rallies. ⚖️ Trade Scenarios 🐂 Bullish Reversal Setup: * Trigger: Break & close above 555.83 with volume. * Target: 558.11 → 564.85 * Invalidation: Below 549.68 * Risk/Reward: Favorable if volume confirms. 🐻 Bearish Continuation Setup: * Trigger: Break below 549.68 with follow-through. * Target: 545 → 540 zone (GEX & PUT walls) * Stop-Loss: Above 555.83 or structure retest * Confluence: GEX alignment + broken structure + dealer flow pressure. 🧭 Directional Bias: Bearish bias still intact — but signs of short-term bounce forming. Likely we see a dead cat bounce unless 555.83 is reclaimed with conviction. 🎯 Actionable Strategy: * Intraday scalp: Long toward 558 if price reclaims 555.83. * Swing short: Below 549.68 toward 540 using SPY or PUT options. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights