Short-Term Upside For Teck ResourcesTeck Resources has been in a clearly defined downward trend since November 2016. The trend does however cycle up and down very well. Currently the stock is at the bottom of the channel and due to rise for the reasons in this article.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 29.9555. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the stock flirting at the oversold level. This means the stock will rise at some point in the near future. This is the first indicator of a reversal to the upside.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -15.73. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been trending down. Due to the delayed correlation in the movement of the stock, this indicator does not signal the bottom until after the fact. I have used light blue lines on the chart above when the bottom was reached for the stock. The current TSI position is roughly at the same point in the wave. This is the second indicator of a reversal to the upside.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7367 and the negative is at 1.1367. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is near the top of its cycle, meaning the stock should move up soon. This is the third indicator of a reversal to the upside.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 8.2772 and D value is 7.3369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. Currently this indicator is clearly in oversold territory, due for upward movement in the stock soon. This is the fourth indicator of a reversal to the upside.
During the current trend channel, the stock has risen from bottom to top 3 times. On these movements, the median rise is 25% and median trading days to achieve the movement is 20 days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction clearly points to some sort of upward movement soon. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 14% over the next 32 trading days.
