Log scale BullishThis zone we've been in since January 2021 is going to look like the flat spot on most of your charts. You need to view it on a logarithmic scale to really appreciate the market structure.
TSLA trade ideas
Tesla7.8.241 of my students asked me if you could short Tesla... and my answer was you don't want to short it right now. I know a lot of Traders would take that short and we may find out in the next day or two that that would have been a fantastic trade to Short. but there were no sellers when he asked about shorting the market and that presents a problem fo..r me because I want to see some buyers not know buyers or I can't short the market... and the tools I use for that reversal are 2 bar reversals and if I want to short it I want to 2 bar reversal that goes lower but if I want to go long I wait for 2 bar reversal to go higher..... I always or almost always with some exceptions wait for the 2 bar reversal in the direction I want to trade. I don't know if it should be called the 2 bar reversal.... I don't know what other people do or how they look at the market when I'm looking at a toolbar reversal..... I threw all my books away every year I'd have a whole batch of trading books and I would take him to the nearby library when it was closed and I would dump pounds and pounds of books into the bin outside the library because if I went inside the Library they wouldn't take my books because I had too many..... I don't like throwing books away so I gave it to the library in case they use some of them for people who are looking to trade the markets. I know the 2 bar reversals work. I know that the market can provide a 2-bar reversal to go lower and in another few hours it can reverse and have a 2 bar reversal going higher..... and some people might say that's a waste of time... but if you understand the context of a market that's oversold or the concept of gaps that are being filled or not being filled and then you add a few other indicators like using 382 we're looking at Fibonacci extensions and understanding support and resistance and understanding expansion and contraction of markets two by reversals are very effective and a lot of the problems you could have with 2 bar reversals aren't problems if you understand how markets move, and all you need to do is draw some simple lines and be patient and you'll find the trade.
230 in the coming weeks before earningsStill fully overbought and still maximizing opportunity with a green finish in the past two weeks, today's selling-off action, inverse to buying from a sell-off in the previous session, seems like it will have a few red days and then start consolidating. 230 is very realistic.
Visualize $TSLA CALL pricing skew due to the upcoming earningsLet’s take a look at our new tradingview options screener indicator to see what we observe, as the options chain data has recently been updated.
When we look at the screener, we can immediately see that NASDAQ:TSLA has an exceptional Implied Volatility Rank value of over 100, which is extremely high. This is clearly due to the upcoming earnings report on July 23rd.
As we proceed, we notice that Tesla's Implied Volatility Index is also high, over 70. This means that not only the relative but also the absolute implied volatility of Tesla is high. Because the IVX value is above 30, Tesla’s IV Rank is displayed with a distinguishable black background. This favors credit strategies such as iron condors, broken wing butterflies, strangles, or simple short options.
Next, let’s examine how this IV index value has changed over the past five days. We can see it has increased by more than 6%, indicating an upward trend as we approach the earnings report.
In the next cell, we see a significant vertical price skew. Specifically, at 39 days to expiration, call options are 84% more expensive than put options at the same distance. This indicates that market participants are pricing in a significant upward movement in the options chain.
The call skew is so pronounced that at 39 days to expiration, the 16 delta call value exits the expected range. This signifies a substantial delta skew twist, which I will show you visually.
We see a horizontal IV index skew between the third and fourth weeks in the options chain. This means the front weekly IVX is lower than the IVX for the following week, which may favor calendar or diagonal strategies. Hovering over this with the mouse reveals it’s around the third and fourth week.
In the last cell, we observe that there’s a horizontal IVX skew not just in weekly expirations but also between the second and third monthly expirations.
Now, let’s see how these values appear visually on Tesla’s chart using our Options Overlay Indicator. On the right panel, the previously mentioned values are displayed in more detail when you hover over them with the mouse. The really exciting part is setting the 16 delta curve and seeing the extent of the upward shift in options pricing. This significant skew is also visible at closer delta values.
When we enable the expected move and standard deviation curves, it immediately becomes clear what this severe vertical pricing skew in favor of call options means. Practically, market participants are significantly pricing in upward movement right after the earnings report.
Hovering over the colored labels associated with the expirations displays all data precisely, showing the number of days until expiration and the high implied volatility index value for that expiration. Additionally, a green curve indicating overpricing due to extra interest is displayed. Weekly expiration horizontal IVX skew values appear in purple, and those affected by monthly skew are shown in turquoise blue.
The 'Lite' version of our indicators is available for free to everyone, where you can also view Tesla as demonstrated. Pro indicators are available more than 150 US market symbols like SPY, S&P500, Nvidia, bonds, etfs and many others.
Trade options like a pro with TanukiTrade Option Indicators for TradingView.
Thank you for your attention.
Tesla - Finally exiting consolidation...NASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for four years and is ready for a (bullish) breakout.
We have a beautiful repetition of cycles on Tesla: Long term consolidation followed by a qiuck and agressive move higher followed once again by a long term consolidation. Tesla entered such a consolidation about four years ago and is now simply ready for another bullish breakout and an agressive move higher. It is just a matter of time until the triangle pattern breaks...
Levels to watch: $120, $220
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
DON'T SLEEP ON TSLA ON A THURSDAY or you might miss out on the runup to 191.
Potentially higher, but likely into next week.
154 is looking likely should we break under trend.
Basically per this chart, either tesla is ready to make a move to the upside, and it looks like a quick move pre earnings.
If TSLA drops today into that support zone, it can trigger a run up to 184, and then possible 191.
Hard to say exactly when or if it even hits 167.99, but at some point during a move like that, if it should occur, there will be time to grab some options and make a few decent trades. Depending on your style.
If you're just investing to hold long, you want to buy pretty much sub 169.
Lowest price I see atm is 109, but it might actually hold the levels at the 150 range.
Good luck!!
DON'T SLEEP ON TESLA ON A... WELL, NEVER SLEEP AGAIN. TSLA 420.
ALRIGHT, LET'S TRY THIS AGAIN.
Tesla has a cool trend setup, retracement setup and indicator alignment into earnings.
A REALLY STEEP DROP from earnings, past 134 and all the way down to around 96, could trigger a nice move to the upside that you won't want to miss.
I know, TSLA to 74 or 30 or 10 (it's garbage).
Well, no, I disagree. At least in the short term. After it runs up again, I could easily see it back down to some low numbers.
But right now, heading into earnings, a big move is showing that looks very similar to what I've shown.
My line, expect it to be inaccurate, instead focus on the price targets.
At 175.01 = full bull to the moon 238k miles, maybe overshoots that.
There will be retracements, but if this move is based around btc, it could be FAST.
So, probably best to never sleep again, and watch the tsla chart 24/7.
RSI technically bearish, but they all look like they are about to flip, BUT they haven't yet, so we can't assume. We have to keep the projection based on charts, which says, if 134 holds and we get over 175 with stability, then green light, probably.
If earnings crashes price to under $100 for a brief amount of time, you probably want to yolo the dip. Calls would be very cheap at that point, and if you're bullish in any way, even if it's not to my numbers bullish, then it's still probably free money.
I won't be upset should you disagree, feel free.
And I look forward to your rubbing of profits in my face, should you be correct.
Truthfully, I'd like to see everyone make a ton, no matter what your opinion is (bear/bull).
LOTS OF MOVEMENT to trade in two directions.
Things don't go up forever, things don't go down forever, and if they do, it would be an outlier to most market movements.
Good luck!!
SOME FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH:
1. **Tesla Fundamentals**:
- Tesla, the electric vehicle (EV) company founded by Elon Musk, has seen remarkable growth in recent years. Their fundamentals include strong demand for EVs, innovative technology, and a charismatic CEO who captures public attention.
- However, Tesla's financials have been volatile due to high R&D costs, production challenges, and regulatory hurdles. Despite this, their stock price has surged, making them one of the most valuable automakers globally.
2. **Bitcoin and Dogecoin Investments**:
- Tesla made headlines when it disclosed a $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin. This move signaled institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.
- Elon Musk's tweets and actions have influenced crypto markets. Tesla's investment in Bitcoin adds legitimacy to the asset class.
- As for Dogecoin, Tesla has not officially invested in it. However, Musk's tweets and memes have boosted Dogecoin's popularity. It's important to note that Dogecoin is highly speculative and lacks fundamental value¹.
3. **Software Subscription vs. Hardware Sales**:
- Morgan Stanley believes Tesla could make more money from software subscriptions than hardware sales. Tesla's vehicles are equipped with advanced software features (Autopilot, Full Self-Driving) that can be unlocked via subscription.
- By offering software upgrades, Tesla can generate recurring revenue. This model aligns with the trend toward software-defined vehicles².
4. **Data Collection and Auto Driving**:
- Tesla collects vast amounts of data from its vehicles, especially those equipped with Autopilot. This data helps improve autonomous driving algorithms.
- Tesla's fleet provides real-world data for training AI models, giving them a competitive edge in self-driving technology.
- Monetizing this data could be lucrative. Tesla could license it to other companies or use it for targeted advertising.
5. **Leasing Software vs. Selling Cars**:
- Leasing software (e.g., Full Self-Driving subscription) allows Tesla to generate ongoing revenue without selling additional hardware.
- Traditional automakers rely on upfront car sales, which can lead to debt if demand fluctuates.
- Tesla's approach disrupts the industry by emphasizing software and services over traditional car sales.
In summary, Tesla's fundamentals, crypto investments, software subscriptions, data collection, and unique business model contribute to its success and potential for future growth. However, risks remain, and the EV landscape is evolving rapidly. Other automakers are also adapting to these changes, but Tesla's early lead gives it a competitive advantage¹². 🚗💡📈
Source: Conversation with Bing, 4/22/2024
(1) Tesla, Dogecoin & Institutional Interest: A Data Perspective by .... coinmarketcap.com
(2) Tesla (TSLA) could make more money from software subscription than .... electrek.co
(3) Dogecoin | Tesla Support. www.tesla.com
Tesla bears be excited >> (-20%?) Tesla, come on, you just paid Elon musk so much money. What is exactly worth +50% in a month? In addition to what you see technically from what I outlined, I think the entire market is due for a correction. Given tesla's beta relative to the market, I anticipate at least 20% retracement from 260 towards 210 maybe 230. Ill be updating this as it changes.
Pro Setups for Swing Trading Ahead of News: TSLANASDAQ:TSLA had a velocity run on the release of its production update for Q2. Velocity runs have gaps between candles which do not overlap. It is a run of enormous speculation to gambling mode and the professionals are taking advantage of it. Notice the pro trader setup candle patterns prior to the retail side getting the news.
TSLA: It's a clear break outWith a new weekly green candle above trend line, there's no more speculation from a technical standpoint.
Don't be a Negative Nancy
Much love 💕
TSLA hits golden fibTSLA despite a bearish chart has decided to pump about 100$ in less than ten days. Many covered-call sellers are very underwater on this stock. I myself was caught on this and had to pay extra premium to close the position a while back when it broke this resistance. Despite falling fundamentals the stock is over 100 PE. This fib from my experience trading very volatile assets is usually a VERY strong rejection zone, this happened on many of my high momentum altcoins including RNDR & INJ, that is how I knew to take profits last time.
What’s Driving the Rally and How to Trade the MomentumTesla's share price surged more than 27% higher last week following a series of positive developments that reignited investor confidence. Let’s take a look at what’s driving Tesla higher, and how to trade this burst of bullish momentum.
What’s driving Tesla higher?
Better-than-Expected Deliveries Report:
• Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries exceeded Wall Street estimates. Despite a 4.8% decline in deliveries compared to the previous year, the drop was less severe than in the first quarter, sparking investor optimism.
Anticipation of Financial Results:
• Investors are eagerly awaiting Tesla's second-quarter financial results, set to be released on July 23. Key focus areas include automotive gross margins, especially in light of the extensive discounts and incentives Tesla has been offering.
Upcoming Events and Innovations:
• Tesla's Robotaxi Day, scheduled for August 8, is expected to be a significant event for the company. Sector analysts believe this could act as a catalyst for the stock, even though the Robotaxi segment is not expected to launch before 2027.
Despite the recent rally, Tesla's stock is up only 1.2% for the year, lagging behind the broader market gains of the Nasdaq (up 22%) and the S&P 500 (up 17%).
How to Trade Tesla’s Burst of Bullish Momentum
Last week’s rally saw the shares break decisively above the April swing highs and surpass the descending trendline (gold dotted line) that has been in place for the past year. This burst of bullish momentum was backed by an increase in volume, but the exponential nature of the rally has taken the shares well above the upper Keltner Channel, making a sustained continuation of the rally less likely without some form of mean reversion.
Hence, traders looking to buy into Tesla’s resurgence might consider waiting for an orderly pullback. The timing of pullbacks is highly subjective, but key areas to watch would be the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is the basis line of the Keltner Channel, and the top of the broken trendline (gold dotted line), as this may provide support moving forward.
Tesla (TSLA) Daily Candle Chart
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Tesla(TSLA)Everybody familiar with head. shoulders, knees and toes???...
Didn't close below 200 did we?
Either way we still bullish on tesla.
Bias stays the same.
TSLA FALLING WEDGE - EASY $250, $TSLAThe Falling Wedge is a bullish formation that starts with a wide top and narrows as prices decline. This movement creates a cone shape that slopes downwards as the reaction highs and lows come together. Unlike symmetrical triangles, which lack a clear slope and bias, falling wedges unmistakably slope downwards and exhibit a bullish bias.
-The buy signal has been received.
-Big Hands are buying NASDAQ:TSLA despite the bad earning= BOTTOM
-MODEL 2 (EV Euphoria), FSD (Subscription & Licensing Income), INDIA GIGA FACTORY (cheaper and easier Production), OPTIMUS/ENERGY (Future & Growth)
Buy now and hold until the EOY!
NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla (TSLA) - Edition #1Macro Outlook: Neutral
- We found support at $165 level but now we are at a resistance zone.
- If prices flips and establishes above $265, then we'll look for long entries.
#TESLA #TSLA Short Set UpLooks like the tesla rally is extended on 1H TF. Looking to short it. I have my sell stop / entry at 243.95. Good Luck
Entry 243.95
Stoploss 252.36
TP-1 235.66
TP-2 227.28
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
Everyone are calling to short this resistance...Hi bears this is a warning i would like to introduce you to any bullish scenerios that are very likely to happen based on the information we know.
as you all know, we are at resistance after what you may call a fakeout
The most bullish scenerio is if we find enough enthusiastic buyers at the 0.85 fib this is a bullish retest and if we find them your so called resistance becomes support in which case you will accumulate your short position and will be the fuel for a momentoum drive up
the same can happen at the 0.786 fib
the lowest we go in this bullish idea is to golden pocket from 0.618 and 0.5 these are supply zones ever since tesla posted its deliveries.
how much money are you willing to risk? (bears as a whole)
how many positions in shorts are you willing to place?
if you are wrong (quick reminder optimus showcase at 8.8) your money will just turn into tesla fuel.
i know my lines are disgusting but my idea is a very possible scenerio
my target to any of these bullish scenerios are the 1.618 at 365 for a start before anything else happens. buy the rumor sell the fact.
dont say you werent warned.
TESLA LOCALLY OVERBOUGHT|SHORT|
✅TESLA is approaching a supply level of 266$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
$TSLA pullback on RSI 85NASDAQ:TSLA incredible move from 185 to 250, RSI 85, pullback is near before next wave, early entry short if +1.5% and higher Monday
TSLA at pit stop at 250 after multiple Gap UpTSLA making pitstop at every 50$ forming series of Support and Resistant at 100, 150, 200, 250, 300. This price structure is important for us to take action at right place and right time.
FiFT triggers +ve Buy on Dip (BoD) signal on 24 April and MCDX shows first sign of MCDX buy volume at 150 Support Zone. You can apply BUY at SUPPORT strategy here.
Another MCDX Buy momentum detected on 12 June pushing MCDX Sell to 0% (insignificant).
Slow Turtle Buy breakout on 17 June with Strong FiFT and MCDX Buying Momentum.
MCDX Buy % crossing 75% on 25 June and breaks above long term downtrend.. Since then, TSLA turning into SpaceX mode with multiple Gap Up to the moon.
MA Rainbow turning GREEN which signify TSLA is now UPTREND.
Next trarget 250, 300 ...
TSLA ~ 340A deep fall is followed by a legitimate correction
The impulse has gone down, so according to Elliott the corrective zigzag ABC will go upward
C = 1.618*A
