VLO Long positionVLO showing some bullish divergence
The stock had surprising Q1 earnings
Possible bounce on the triangle trendline and up
Energy stock performing well under covid-19 lockdown
IMPORTANT the markets are still testing un-lockdown
The stock is creating a bearish triangle medium-term
TP1 - 66.50
TP2 - 79.00 if breakup
SL - 60.00
VLO trade ideas
VLO - Support Held, Looking LongValero Energy has been consolidating since early December after a pullback. The support level from a prior high established back on April 25th continued to hold as the price is just starting to break out from the level established on November 2, 2018. A purple dotted line will mark where a previous break out attempt failed so all longs will want to see the price successfully take this level out.
Note the bullish divergence with the stock price & the RSI since the stock has begun its consolidation from early December. The slow stochastic is exiting an oversold condition as well.
As stated above I want to see the price get higher than the dotted purple line. Assuming it does that, I have my Fibonacci extension levels noted with the dotted green lines. The dotted blue line is based on a traditional P&F chart using a 3-box reversal along with a value determined from a 20-day ATR.
Earnings are on January 30th BMO, so anyone planning on holding over a month should take that into account.
VLO establishing uptrend from breakout of bull flag patternVLO has broken the downtrend of the bull flag with an uptrend which held Friday (left pane). Furthermore, XLE (energy sector) is breaking out of a descending triangle on the monthly (upper right pane). Overall looking good for long positions. My stoploss is 97.27.
A downtrend on the weekly has however been established, so I will be taking some profit when it approaches the downward trendline (lower right pane).
Disclaimer: I currently have the following positions: VLO JAN 03 96.5 calls (main position), QQQ DEC 31 puts (hedge) and NFLX DEC 27 puts (hedge)
VLO Retest/Round-UpVLO has a very strong setup that has now formed. It has established a retest of the prior $92 level and remounted, making that level now support. It has also formed a rounding bottom pattern where it will look to continue its upward trend toward the 100-101 level. This will act as resistance, so 100-101 is my target. The weekly chart looks bullish to the upside. Pairing the retest and remount with the rounding up pattern is strongly bullish.
Valero Pulls Back to Old Level After a Golden CrossLots of things are happening on the chart with oil refiner Valero Energy .
1) VLO had a Golden Cross pattern in late October, with its 50-day SMA rising above the 200-day SMA.
2) In recent weeks, it pulled back to find support at its old resistance zone between $92 and $94. That goes back to October 2018 and April 2019.
3) VLO has also remained near its 50-day SMA, creating a setup similar to Nike early last month.
Energy stocks in general have shown positive relative strength lately as oil tries to push higher. There are a few positive forces at work: OPEC extending production cuts, calming of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, a better economic situation in Europe and low production in the U.S.
Refiners have been popular trading vehicles for energy in the past. As long as VLO holds this support zone in the low-to-mid 90s, will traders get interested in it again?
NYSE:NKE
VLO PullbackVLO is showing the beginnings of a pullback back to support at the $70-71 levels. On the longer term chart there is significant support at these levels, so i'm looking to short to that level and get out, until it starts to show price action breaking below this support.
This is a potential 5-6% move with close to 2:1 risk/reward. The RSI index is close to a bearish zone
Trend remains the friend. VLOVLO retested the break-out. Discounting Cash Flow indicates VLO is a buy at $78 and worth $185. Global average to build out refining assets equates to $32,800 per refined barrel. At that level and subtracting current debt, this would indicate VLO to be worth $215. NYSE:VLO