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VISTRA CORPVISTRA CORPVISTRA CORP

VISTRA CORP

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VST trade ideas

VST 1-4 week swing (or longer)VST Idea . A utility set to continue to benefit from the AI space I got burned on this a few months ago, but it just wasn't time yet. Since then, it has had a great reality check, along with a few key levels, demand zones, and MAs. Stronger conviction over last weeks high, but I'm not likely waiting for that. So long as it's above the 5d ema on Tuesday, I'm going to buy for a swing. Likely looking at Oct cons to start, and I kind of like the Oct 80c. The 90's look great too, just not my style. I have several levels marked on my chart, as these are mainly area's where I'll be watching the reactions, but each level could be a good trim spot depending on cons bot. It looks like there might still be some weekly supply there starting at 89.95, so this will likely be a trim or roll level for me. It's also the same level that started the huge sell off in Jul. Ultimate Target is 97.75 SL is just below the daily demand currently, about 78.75, but I will move that up if this current zone becomes the next demand level. Ideally somewhere around 81.70 will be my new SL if that happens It's very likely that we could see ATHs test this year or Q1 '25, as this is a utility name that will continue to benefit from the AI boom. If we reach 97.75 with some strength, I may reevaluate and roll out to a longer date. Since their last EPS report, which was in the positive, price has been grinding upwards
NYSE:VSTLong
by D_Rockefeller
A Derivative Play On The AI CrazeAI has been the narrative for the past year and a half, however, AI needs data centers and computing power. This means shit loads of energy is required for the ever-expanding Artificial intelligence. The biggest winner, so far, from this, has been and will probably continue to be Vistra Corp and I will tell you why below. First, let’s take a look at who Vistra is Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. Its portfolio includes natural gas and coal, as well as nuclear, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Vistra owns four nuclear generation facilities, that can power 3.2 million U.S. homes. It owns the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet and boasts the second-largest energy storage capacity in the country. This includes one of the world's largest battery energy storage facilities. The company is also actively expanding its portfolio of solar assets. Current situation in the company Vistra recently reached a significant milestone by being included in the S&P500 at the beginning of May. The company had a stellar first half of 2024 going up by 125%, lagging only behind Nvidia and Super Micro Computer. On the 1st of March VST -0.35%↓ closed its acquisition of Energy Harbor adding a 4,000-megawatt nuclear generation fleet and around 1M retail customers. The acquisition is expected to add around $700 million to 2024 earnings, with identified synergies increasing to $150 million by 2025. Operational highlights: Their hedging program helped them benefit amid volatile weather, achieving an average realized power price of over $50/MWh compared to market prices below $30/MWh. Positive customer count growth across Texas, Midwest, and Northeast. Key Financial Metrics Adjusted EBITDA for Ongoing Operations: $813 million (nearly 50% increase year-over-year) Generation EBITDA: $841 million Retail EBITDA: -$28 million Net Leverage: ~3x (expected to be below 3x by year-end 2024) Outlook and Financial Guidance: 2024 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA for ongoing operations is projected between $4.55 billion and $5.05 billion, with adjusted free cash flow before growth ranging from $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion. Long-Term Projections: By 2025, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to reach $5 billion to $5.5 billion, and more than $6 billion by 2026. The company aims to achieve a 55%-60% EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate from 2025 onward. Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers: Demand Growth: Significant power demand increases are expected from data centers, industrial reshoring, electrification, and population growth. Texas load growth is projected at 1.6%-6% annually through 2030. Power Market Trends: Increasing power prices in Texas and PJM markets, with forward curves indicating tighter grid conditions and ongoing load growth. Technical setup Source: Tradingview The price is currently sitting 20% below the May peaks after a strong measured move-up. This can be a great entry point for everyone who missed the initial stretch upwards. The price is also holding at the 50-day moving average and has been consolidating throughout most of June. The RSI is at one of its lowest levels since the October bottom. All in all, it looks like a great opportunity to enter with my prediction of the success of this play is between 60 and 75 percent. Enjoying this newsletter? Share it with a friend. The MOM returns are at a 2-year low with signs of reversing. This signals to me that we might be at the bottom of the correction. Wallstreet outlook Out of 13 analysts that give stock ratings to Vistra Corp. we can see 11 are giving it a strong buy. The current price sits 17% below the minimum price forecast and more than 50% below the maximum projected price target. This is a great sign that the company is trading at a discount and that these levels can be a great opportunity for entry. The company is heavily owned by institutions, with the biggest shareholders being Vanguard, BlackRock, and Fidelity, collectively owning more than a quarter of the company. The latest May SEC filings show predominantly buy positions. Conclusion Overall, I expect that the price will continue to go up, supported by the strong earnings and revenue growth expectations and the favorable technicals.
NYSE:VSTLong
by RickHardyPro
VST Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 36.50 Volume: with volume greater than average. Normally I would say greater than the volume from the previous high, in this case 6.032M, but given that volume is from earnings, that is unlikely. The more volume the better. Target: 39.19 area. This is an area, you might consider existing early if price drops below a significant moving average such as the 10, 20, or 50 EMA. You might also considering holding some portion of the trade longer as price closes above significant moving averages. Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 36.51, 35.62 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. For a higher risk and higher reward trade, enter when price breaks above 35.31 (high from Nov 16) and set your stop below the entry day or day before entry day candle, or wherever your normal risk tolerance allows. This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NYSE:VSTLong
by tradepatiently