XBI Failed MoveXBI has been in a strong uptrend recently. For the past few days its been consolidating around 79.5. And I'm hoping to trap some of the buyers that took a long position on the move higher this morning.
XBI trade ideas
XBI: The bear's been shotAnd I hope you all have fresh felts hanging from your walls. Recall 3 weeks ago I shared a long strategy from $68.50. XBI found critical medium-term support at $66.66 and is up 20% since the 5/31 low.
For wave counters, we are ostensibly in minute-3, of micro-3, of intermediate-3 of primary wave-5. After consolidating and forming a base from late March - early June, XBI broke-out and is a solid long > $73.20.
However, short-term, XBI is testing the upper trading channel and faces significant overhead resistance at $80.50. I'm looking to buy any pull-back between $75-77 and do not expect it trade under $73 in the short to medium term.
Short-term: may have topped, consolidation into support
Medium-term: min. price target of $88.49 into fall
Long-term: min. price target of $93.68 into early 2018
Long XBI and QQQXBI breaking out of a rectangle, after breaking out of a triangle, coinciding with QQQ boucing off 50ma. Both targets are around $80
After watching this intraday I see no indication of slowing down.
The trend has been very strong in the market, volatility is amazingly low, and hardly anybody trusts the market on a fundamental basis. Macro data continues to disappoint. So, plenty of buyers left, plenty of reason for the Fed to cut rates/resume QE, plenty of fuel for a bubble.
Raised stops to above breakeven on TQQQ.
Adding XBI here. Stop slightly below a backtest of the rectangle.
TRIPLE TOPXBI UPTHRUST CAUGHT A LOT OF PEOPLE WITH THE GUARD DOWN BUT BEARISH DIVERGENCE WAS A WARNING FROM THE START..
Everything happen so fast when xbit started to plunge after IDMC recommends ending late-stage trial of colorectal cancer treatment and this event that happened at 2:40pm on friday overturn $xbi at the same moment and now is going back to 400 EMA $67..
STOCHASTICS OVERBOUGHT AND HEIKI ASHI BEARISH CONFIRMATION + MOMENTUM GOING INTO SELLING MODE +MACD CROSSOVER
BIG INTEREST PLAY THE 300 , 400 EMA ... WATCH SMALLER TIMEFRAME FOR A FASTER CONFIRMATION BUT IN MY OPINION IS NOT GOING TO HOLD...
SHORT biotechLooks like it may head down to lower trend line. will watch for breakdown there. Low risk here with tight stop(3.5%) via $LABD
What's up with Biotech?Bring back technical analysis . Too often I've been seeing people just posting a picture of the price action and then an arrow going up or down with the title "Long UVXY" or some garbage like that. Nobody gives two farts about whether or not you entered a position. Show me some fibonacci. Show me some technical divergences. Show me some diamond bottoms. Show me something. I don't care if we're on the same side of the trade, or on opposite sides, but at least justify your position?
If you don't have anything to add to the conversation, don't detract from everyone else's by humming.
#BringBackTechnicalAnalysis
Biotech is creating an extremely challenging chart to follow because it's charting clear patterns on different timeframes, but the patterns are opposite each other. For example here on the daily I've got a pretty smooth cup and handle. But on the 2hr I've got it reaching the end of an ascending wedge.
Conclusion:
Short term - Bear
Medium term - Bear?
Long term - Bull?
XBI$XBI has fallen twice now due to a ascending wedge. I believe we have reached the peak of the 3rd. There is strong resistance which the price was rejected off of. There is a significant divergence on the 4 hr chart marked by the purple line. There has been an increased number of divergences on lower timeframes as we reach the end of this suggested pattern. The video I provided goes into a far more detailed explanation across a range of different timeframes. www.youtube.com
Conclusion:
Short term Neutral
Medium term Bearish
Long term Neutral
www.youtube.com
Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
XBI: Break-down or bear trap?
XBI looks to be completing it's final leg down since this correction began in early-May. RSI on the 5-yr chart has reached levels not seen since the early-Nov 2016 lows. Long-term support in the RSI trading channel is currently being tested, and I expect it to hold and act as a spring board for Wave-3 to new all-time highs by early 2018.
I am long from $68.65. This scenario is nullified if the early April low of $66.00 is broken.
XBI on watch for continued weaknessLast week despite a very strong market XBI high broke away from the monthly trend zone line. Now there is lots of volume at this level so this is not a screaming short. This is an area showing lots of relative weakness.
Short XBI: Target Price $20 from $70XBI is making head and shoulders pattern will drop to the origin. stocks bear market are coming.
XBI Triangle ConsolidationNext week. I'll be looking to enter a long position if price can get back down to the previous support levels.
XBI may be in another triangle with potensial big downsideXBI S&P500 biotech index may be in another rising triangle, we see price action at top of triangle for possible short entry. Instrument LABD x3 can be used for shorting this index.
long soonme thinks XBI drops one more time, flush out some longs. and then have a strong reaction bounce followed by consolidation.
will buy LABU on the breakout of that consolidation
XBI Possible Triangle FormingXBI had a failed attempt to move higher a couple weeks ago and didn't fall back down to the previous low level. This suggests to me a possible triangle formation forming. I will be looking to short if it can get back up to the 71 level and have buyers fail to drive the price higher.
XBI to continue lowerXBI has tried for the past couple of days to move higher and has failed. The intermediate term trend is lower and I like the chances to continue lower for the next couple days.
