XBI trade ideas
OPENING: XBI FEB 15TH 53/62/62/71 IRON FLY... for a 5.29 credit. IVR isn't as high as I'd like it (>70% over the preceding six months), but I'll take it ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: $529
Max Loss: $371/contract
Break Evens: 56.61/67.29
Notes: As will all flies, will look to take profit at 25% max.
LABU - S&P - XBIA few of you asked to update LABU, so here is what I think.
Unfortunatley this doesn't look good. While S&P had a nice rally in the last month XBI and LABU was not able to print a rally. It was in a decline mode.
And now we have a problem as stocks (S&P) might starting to move down into the DCL XBI and LABU might test back the gap or in a worse case it might print a failed intermediate cycle....
I think the sector is waiting for Trump... I wouldn't do anything here right now...
We have to wait if Trump is supporting Biotech - the biggest opportunity for USA - or he just stays at the old sectors...
OPENING: XBI JAN 20TH 51.67/61/61/70 IRON FLYThere isn't much premium out there to be sold in index or sector exchange traded funds, but this is one of them ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 46%
Max Profit: $518/contract
Max Loss: $415/contract
Break Evens: 55.82/66.18
Notes: I'll shoot to take profit at 25% of max ... .
XBI - Weakness AheadA weak sector for when the market switches gears. When the broad indices eventually start to pull back, XBI should bare a large part of the selling. My stop is at 61.50, risking .60c to potentially make $8.50
TRADE IDEA: XBI JAN 20TH 53.33/61.67/70 IRON FLYRotating into exchange-traded funds here ... . EWZ and XBI appear to have the best implied volatility rank/implied volatility percentage metrics. I already have an EWZ fly on, so XBI it is ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: 5.29 ($529)/contract
Max Loss: 3.00 ($300)/contract
Break Evens: 56.38/66.96
Notes: I'm going to shoot for a fill that is .05 about the mid price of 5.29. If it fills, it fills; no worries. Will look to manage at 25% of max profit as I do with all short straddles/iron flies.
XBI Big Move ComingI believe a big move is coming. I'm leaning bullish, but if we lose major support around 57.80 this will be a short play. It's important to be conservative. Wait for the break of resistance, or break of support.
Biotech RideBiotech went wild after Donald entered the white house.
It will rage for a while longer. When it hit the 75 mark, enter short with LABD.
Then ride it down to see the gap closing.
There is a risk that it will close the gap before it hits 75 - by e.g. double topping, but I find it more likely that it will now continue up to 75.
75 is the critical number for the short entry.
Good R/R for short position in XBI?Technically Speaking
Price is trading right up to the pivot level 68.
Where is the R/R?
The R/R favors the shorts at these levels, in my opinion. I would target the rising trendline noted on the chart. Stop above 73.
If long, you have three options, hold and hope for bigger gains,take profits, or use a trailing stop.
As always, trade your plan and execute.
Biotech may be a good buy, or waiting election USThis may be a good time to add 1/3 to 1/2 of the total position, save some for 200ma if we go down there
LABU - A possible bottomYesterday we had a capitulation type of volume in XBI, so I think we are very close to the bottom, or maybe we had it yesterday.
I still think that the 06.29-06.30 gap is a runaway gap - which will never be filled- and yesterday we almost exactly tested back the top of the gap. And today we couldn't fall anymore we are just bouncing from the gap.
So I think entering here is a low risk trade if someone set a stop below yesterday's low.
If we break below yesterday's low and enter into the gap we are going to fill that and we are getting very close to the 49$ level. If we break below 49$ I'm quite sure that we are making lower low in XBI so the line in the sand is the yesterday low for me.
If we take that out I'M not interested in XBI for a while.
Indicators
MACD is turning up and might want to cross over
RSI left overbought - in the past it was a sign of the next leg up.
We are charting in XBI so you have to trade based on this when buying LABU.
The 3x ETF chart (LABU) is not good for charting.
LONG XBI 54.70 $
STOP 52.80 $
LONG LABU 26.90$
STOP when XBI breaks below 52.80$
Cypher Pattern CompletionDaily (almost) cypher pattern is looking to complete which would coincide with the follow through of the bearish bat formation posted a few weeks ago. I say almost cypher as point B is a bit shallow. Will be watching closely
XBI Speculative Long PlayWe are finally starting to see some bullish indicators on the daily for XBI. Of course with bio, the swings are long and hard to predict bottoms, so this idea/play is pure speculative. Looking back we can see similar RSI divergence signals and MACD crossovers as to what we can "potentially" see here in the next couple of days.
Any bounce off the 55.95-ish area would be pretty bullish for a short term long swing, using possibly LABU. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days...
XBI is running into head & shoulder pattern lets form the Right shoulder, it is good opportunity to scalp a long to 64.24 which happens to be in the clones level. Watch closely to see there is no further decline over neckline.
XBI Short Term Down Trend ContinuesDespite the gap up today, the short term downtrend is still in-play. Key support/resistance are converging which suggests a strong move either way. The descending triangle pattern seen here has a heavily has bearish probability. My 2 main trend indicators are EMA (13/48) and PPO (12,26,40), which are both bearish on the daily time frame.
LABU - Rally must go onIt was a bit early for this pullback. I was quite sure that the oil rally will push up S&P to new highs - it didn't happen though.
It's too early for LABU and XBI to print any scary correction now. We are tagging the 20 EMA in XBI and that might be the end of this pullback both in LABU and XBI.
If oil continues its run - and I think it will - that will be oil on S&P's fire.
That could give a push to the biotech sector as well.
Hopefully Hillary doesn't attack biotech again in the following weeks so we can finish this daily cycle with great gains.
