XBI Bottoming: Target 103/104 by April 2024XBI appears to be indicating signs of bottoming out, with a potential target range of 103/104 by the end of April 2024, provided that the 92/95 range holds as support.
XBI trade ideas
$XBI Pulling Back – Retesting Flat Base Breakout?AMEX:XBI Formed a flat base from early January to late February before breaking out. You can see on this chart it is either a failed break-out (with more downside to go) or it is retesting that breakout area and will soon resume its upward trend. All TBD.
In addition to coming down to the breakout area it looks like it “may” be getting support at the 50 DMA (red). My plan is that if it breaks back above the blue downtrend line, I will go long with a stop just below that days low. Should it drop below the 50 DMA I would reconsider it as a short candidate.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
XBI: Key Inflection at the 200wk lineXBI just recently broke out of a major range and is now on its way to retake the 200 wk moving average. With many biotechs breaking out of early bases, XBI looks likely to break to the upside.
XBI breaking out!I believe XBI is putting in a 5-pt reversal. it almost exactly mirrors history in the chart. target is $150+
Opening (IRA): XBI March 15th 84 Monied Covered Call... for an 81.63 debit.
Comments: 32.1% 30-Day IV.
My general preference for ETF IV is >35%, but there isn't much currently there in my ETF screener, and I'm already in a GDX position: TQQQ (52.3%); USO (38.1%); GDXJ (35.0%).
Buying a one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 delta short put with "built-in" defense of the position via the short call.
2.37 max on BPE of 81.63; 2.90% ROC at max; 1.45% at 50% max.
XBI - high and tight flagA high and tight flag for AMEX:XBI that just rested the 10 week MA. This sector looks like continuation.
XBI Consolidating Just Below Major PivotXBI, the S&Ps Biotech ETF has been ranging nicely just below a major pivot that has acted as resistance for over two years. Bounced off the 20 EMA on the daily and made a beautiful candle on Friday. Anything that happens below $95 must be taken with a grain of salt, but it looks like it wants to breakout and flip that resistance pivot to support.
Opening (IRA): XBI April 19th 77 Monied Covered Call... for a 74.27 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" to my XBI position here .... . Selling the -75 delta call and buying a one lot to emulate a 25 short put to take advantage of IV skew in calls (40.2% at the 77 strike on the call side; 33.0% on the put).
2.73 max profit on BPE of 74.27; 3.68% ROC as a function of BPE at max; 1.84% at 50% max.
$XBI: Looking For A Probe Below 87.5Both biotech ETF's AMEX:XBI and NASDAQ:IBB are showing tremendous weakness in the face of a strong market. I suspect that when the market is ready to pullback it may take this a little lower especially in the face of a strong TVC:DXY / Dollar Index. Good luck traders!
XBI Long-term Buy SignalsAMEX:XBI is giving long term buy signals as the chart displays. Super trend signals a buy, also MACD and KST crossovers confirm trend direction.
XBI is a somewhat volatile bio-tech ETF.
This ETF is also great for selling options on when volatility is high, as the premium you receive is often much higher than employing the strategy on SPY.
Here are the most current Top 10 holdings:
1 CYTK Cytokinetics, Incorporated 2.79% 2,308,666
2 KRTX Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. 1.80% 383,056
3 ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 1.61% 3,201,386
4 BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Ltd. 1.57% 2,381,294
5 SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. 1.56% 904,544
6 ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. 1.53% 3,752,269
7 ARDX Ardelyx, Inc. 1.49% 12,061,271
8 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 1.46% 224,792
9 MRNA Moderna, Inc. 1.46% 980,210
10 KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. 1.41% 736,663
XBI Biotech Long TriggerWatching for XBI Long Trigger to Develop Throughout Week - level is $88.92 (if price stays here, last price $89.01 by Friday trigger is active)
The trigger is based on the MarketWebs VolumeAtPrice Indicator
XBI - Long term profit ?XBI - long term profit ? A famous index, descending trendline break out, above the 150 moving average line, high volume.
Only an idea and not a recommendation for trading!
Opening: XBI Jan '25 77 Covered CallComments: This started out as an October 20th 76 short put (See Post Below) and then proceeded to crater quite massively, resulting in early, random assignment of shares. In an attempt to get my cost basis immediately within earshot of where the underlying is currently trading, I went extremely long-dated and sold the Jan '25 77 for 7.05 against my one lot, resulting in a cost basis of my original short put strike at 76 minus the 7.05 I received for the short call or 68.95 relative to today's closing price of 67.07.
The Jan '25 77 short call finished the day at around 43 delta, and -- as with all my covered calls, I'll look to roll out the short call at intervals, with an eye toward keeping the short call at or above the 30 delta and/or leaving it alone if price pops back above my break even.
Unfortunately, the position becomes somewhat "dead money" for a bit since the current next available expiries to roll to are limited to June '25, Dec '25, and Jan '26 (although I can certainly roll down intraexpiry if push comes to shove).
BiotechBiotech companies contribute significantly to the development of the health sector. But investing in biotech companies has its fair share of risk. They can be profitable when milstones are achieved but catastrophic when something goes wrong.
Through an ETF, an investor has a safer entry into the biotech space where risk and reward is shared across a long list of other companies in the sector. This ETF has 137 biotech companies in its holdings.
We are looking at adding the SPDR biotech ETF in our portfolio for the long-haul.
XBI setting up for Bear pivotXBI is testing +2 sig from the last range selloff. There was fair respect for the Average on black line but the high value seller did not return at +1 sig.
So now at +2 sig I don't think it's likely the seller returns aggressively enough for a push down.
The much longer timeframe seller got filled in July at +1 at the Red line and has continued to sell. If the program still has more capital to sell it could cause a sideways maket enough to sell 86 or 88 strike depending on where the credit on risk is. Probably more like 86/88 spread.
But 88/90 would be preferable because the near term selling range would have been exceeded at that point and it wouldn't make sense to be +4 sig on the near term out of range. The higher range would take precedence at +2 sig green line.
Personally, it "looks" like it's extending and reaching up to engage liquidity, not return to any value area extreme and continue a trend. And I "think" that liquidity is trolling for engagement around 81.25 at the moment.
Rolling (IRA): XBI November 17th 71 Short Put to January 19th 70... for a .65 credit.
Comments: Originally opened this for .77 (See Post Below); rolling down and out for a .65 credit. Total credits collected of 1.42.
I may still get assigned, but at a slightly better price than were I to just have left it alone.
Opening (IRA): XBI December 15th 63 Short Put... for a .70 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Basically, just building a position here on this weakness.
XBI Compared to TLT using 1 MONTH 30 MIN DPO 63TRADE THIS
XBI long when the DPO is above the 0 line. XBI short when crossing below the 0 line. Using it to compare to TLT provides a sentiment overlay: Higher TLT is risk-with lower implied interest rates; Lower TLT is risk-off with higher implied-interest rates. XBI is the most interest rate sensitive as the index contains the least amount of dividend paying stocks and benefits the most in a lower interest rate environment. Therefore, XBI and TLT should maintain inverse correlation.
Using both TLT and XBI with DPO should provide price direction guidance
FUNDAMENTALS
XBI is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. It includes companies in the biotechnology sector, which is known for its volatility and potential for high growth.
TLT is an ETF that aims to track the performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.
TLT is composed of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. It is often used as a gauge for investor sentiment and economic outlook.
Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO):
The Detrended Price Oscillator is a technical indicator that helps identify cycles and overbought/oversold conditions in a market. It calculates the difference between a past price (usually the closing price) and a moving average of the price over a specified period.
The DPO is useful for identifying short- to medium-term cycles or trends by removing the longer-term trend from the price. If you are using a DPO of 63 periods, it means you are looking at the detrended price movements over the last 63 days (or whatever time frame you're using).
A positive DPO value indicates that the current price is above the historical average, suggesting a potential uptrend. A negative DPO value suggests that the current price is below the historical average, indicating a potential downtrend.
IMPACT
To compare XBI to TLT using DPO, you would look at the DPO values for both XBI and TLT over the same time period (63 days). The comparison of DPO values can provide insights into the relative strength or weakness of the trends in biotech stocks (XBI) compared to long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) during that period.
$XBI - risk reward looks goodAMEX:XBI Biotech has been beaten up for the past 2 years. If you zoom out it looks like it is forming a gigantic head and shoulder pattern.
It has bounced every time it is around $63 - $60 area which is the neckline region.
I think the risk reward at this point is attractive. If it breaks below $60 though, things can get ugly.
Upside targets:
$79
$91
$110
Downside risk:
$60
Opening (IRA): XBI January 19th 55 Short Put... for a .61 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung to beaten-down biotech at strikes better than what I currently have on in October at the 76, November at the 71, and December at the 63, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
I'll be assigned shares on the 76 here shortly (and possibly the 71), after which I'll proceed to sell call against.
Opening (IRA): XBI Dec/Feb 57/50 Short PutsComments: Adding a couple rungs to my XBI position at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
December 15th 47: .62 credit
February 16th 50: .57 credit
I would've also gone with January, but already have a rung on at where I'd want to pitch my tent.
Symmetry Trading on XBISymmetry Trading on XBI forming a broad head and shoulders on the daily chart.
Lets see if comes to reality.
Selling LABU and buying LABD.
Opening (IRA): XBI October 20th 76 Short PutComments: Looking to sell the around the 30 delta here in the October monthly, which is more aggressive than I usually go, but am fine with taking assignment, selling call against if it comes to that.
Currently, the strike is bid 1.45/ask 1.65 with a 1.55 mid, so will look to get a fill "in that neighborhood."
Just looking for some "engagement" in this broad market, low IV environment with my standard go-to's (IWM, QQQ, SPY) at 17.8%, 18.8%, and (ugh) 13.6%, respectively for their 30-days.
