Materials Sector Poised to go Lower? Trade for our Watchlists!We have a Cypher Pattern in the making right now however I will be entering this trade only if point D of the Cypher Pattern has completed.. If Trading is your primary income, it is very important to always have pending setups however you must stay disciplined and not fall into the trap of trading just because! Patience is key in this career and the more you mature as a trader, you start to realize that the most money is made by sitting on your hands and waiting for setups that you have backtested to come to fruition. Once our setups have met all of our rules and conditions, we then enter the trade with pre existing orders for targets and stop losses.. We know exactly where our targets and stop losses should be and there is no uncertainty of how the trade will end!! if you do not know where your Entry, Target or Stop loss is then you should not be in the trade! With that said this is a very good trade to keep on your radar for the weeks ahead. Thanks everyone and if you have any questions regarding my setups please comment below and I will be sure to answer them! Don't forget to check out my most recent ideas. They will aid in giving you the big picture of what may be to come in the materials sector.. Links Below! Good luck trading and
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XLB trade ideas
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two!
Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak.
Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9!
Good trading!
Brian Hershey
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Check out my "Hershey's CoCo World" indicator, available now for your US stock and sector evaluations.
"CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
XLB Skew - Bearish SentimentXLB Skew - Bearish Sentiment
XLBSubmit 46.45-0.05 (-0.1%)Materials Select Sector SPDR
Traders are pricing in a larger-than-average implied volatility premium to buy downside puts relative to upside calls. Currently, the downside puts are trading at a +36.1% premium to upside calls, but the 52-week average is +28.5%. This suggests that traders believe there is more short-term risk to the downside than to the upside, and they are paying higher premiums to guard against that risk.
marketchameleon.com
MACRO VIEW: XLB IN UNCERTAINTY ON ALL FRONTSXLB trades within uncertain territory both on macro and micro basis.
On long term perspective price has failed its 10 and 5 year trends, and now trades between 2 macro levels - the 5-year mean at 41.50 and the 10-year uptrend border at 46.50.
On short term perspective price also showing no particular trend - XLB is trading within 1st standard deviations from both quarterly (66 day) and 1-year (264 day) mean.
Thus in general currently more lateral action is most likely at XLB, until it breaks one of the key macro levels outlined on the chart.
XLB 50.15: 4-month triangle top breakdown drives lowerXLB broke below the 8-month rising trendline support to reinforce the triangle top breakdown. The next support rests at 49.80 (June 9, 2015) and then 49.45 (200 day moving average). Below there would open 48.39 (March 26, 2015). It would take strength back above 50.60 (June 11, 2015) to stabilize and lift for 51.78 (May 8, 2015) near the triangle top resistance zone.
Outlook:
Short term: bearish
Long term: bearish
XLB $49.83: Consolidates above a 6-month rising trendlineXLB has been holding a 6-month rising trendline (from October 13, 2014 low). If bulls manage to reclaim 50.38 (April 13, 2015 range high), that would suggest there is scope for further bullish momentum towards 51.01 (November 17, 2014 range peak) ahead of 52.22 (February 23, 2015 YTD high). The 49.38/48.59 support zone (which houses the the rising trendline) needs to hold dips. A breakdown would signal topping.
Outlook:
Short term: Buy on pullbacks
Long term: Bullish while the rising trendline holds
XLB, symmetrical triangleAfter XLB broke the uptrend channel in early Oct, price has been engaged in symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.
A break down would be for the bears while an upper breakout could see price re-test the undercut of uptrend channel.
I have a hunch that it is going to be red channel moving ahead.
P.S. I noticed one false breakout above the upper triangle line into the channel but failed terribly.
XLB SMHTwo sectors not near Sept high and closed green on the day are XLB SMH - the gap and fade on other sectors along with the overbought McClellan make me wonder if the leaders will digest a bit and perhaps a little rotation. I went over several semi stocks this weekend a posted a few I thought had potential.