RSI14 is showing a bearish divergenceBearish divergence, not much to say :)
Could be time to enter a short today or in the coming days.
I did enter a put 21 sept strike 73 at price 1.87$
XLK trade ideas
OPENING: XLK AUG/SEP 72/76 BEAR PUT DIAGONALBOT +1 DIAGONAL XLK 100 21 SEP 18/17 AUG 18 76/72 PUT @2.75
Paid 2.75 (debt is 69% of the width )
Breakeven @ expiry $73.58
-39 delta, .96 theta
Max Loss : $275
Max Profit : $126
Notes:
Opened a bearish trade here fade the recent rally and add some negative deltas to balance the portfolio.
Following another great trade idea from NaughtyPines! (link below)
Rationale:
Any number of reasons a summer 'tech-wreck' could evolve: trade war, AAPL cutting mobile parts orders from suppliers, weakening Chinese economy etc ...
The top holdings are; AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOG, V, INTC, T, VZ, CSCO (not sure how V is a 'tech' name?)
Some fundamentals on XLK : The forward PE is near 19, and P/B ratio over 5. There's almost no yield, so it's all about the estimated earnings growth , which if revised down should get punished.
Based on a _DCF valuation model: XLK fair value around 75 by year end... based on 2019 earnings estimates and assuming 13.6% earnings growth .
For the same deltas you could short 40 shares of XLK and borrow $2850 worth of stock, but would be charged the overnight borrowing rates as well.
OPENING: XLK AUG/SEPT 72/76 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL.... for a 2.74/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss on Setup: $274/contract
Max Profit on Setup: $126/contract
Break Even: 73.26
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 2.74/4 or 68.5%
Theta: 1.14
Delta: -39.63
Notes: Selling semicons on strength. Will start to look to take profit at 50% of max.
$XLK - August 3 $72.50 PUTSAnticipating a 2% to 3% drop prior to month end, we are purchasing the August 3, $72.50 strike PUTS. Paying $0.83, we need a move below $71.60 to get us profitable. Ideally, we will get a decent drop early and can exit the position this week.
Looks like XLK ready to fall a little bitDue to RSI divergence and trade volume, to short XLK looks attractive to me.
Target at 69.47
Picture say itself.
The XLKs are the main thing I'm watching this weekI think that the most important thing to watch in the equities market this week is the action in the Technology Sector...the XLKs.
They are testing an important resistance at the $71 level. This level is important because it was an all-time high in March, followed by a quick selloff. Then it became support throughout most of May.
If the XLKs fail here they will take the broader markets lower. This sector is the largest in the S&P 500 at 28%. As of right now they (11:31) they are trading just above it at $71.26, but they are off their highs. My guess is that they will roll over in the next few days but only time will tell.
I try not to be 'married' to an idea because I'm the first to admit that the market knows more than I do. I try hard to not have opinions and just to be an observer and let the markets tell me what to do, but as experienced traders know this is much easier said than done.
XLK - H+S TOP in time for wave 3 lowerIf the picture perfect H+S Top pattern is correct then we are about to head down in wave 3 to break neckline and head towards 65.30 area.
Short, stop above right shoulder, t/p 65.30
XLK Potential Bull Trap; " Bearish Throw Over" Pattern.The S+P Technology ETF XLK experienced a "Bearish Throw Over" Break to the Downside
on 6/25,pattern noted often by Trading View trader Geoff,
occurring when price breaks above resistance, trading above it for multiple days,
only to break back below it, dropping price back into the previous pattern,
and with it, a potential " Bull Trap " now exists on the XLK chart.
NYSE FANG Index has a similar pattern building , as big technology shares reversed from their recent break to the upside.
THE_UNWIND
Passive investing piling into one sector $xlkLooks to me like everyone is piling into xlk. Look at the chart for $msft $aapl $amzn $nvda $nflx They all look virtually the same. No individual price discovery, just mob mentality. Be careful. all have negative RSI divergences. When everybody is on one side of the boat.....
Top in XLK ?Could we have a 5th wave top in place in XLK yesterday/today? If so there is a long way to go lower.....
XLK: potentially failed bearish Gartley PatternXLK reversed from the PRZ of the bearish Gartley Pattern after clearing all three targets. However, it quickly moved back into PRZ and stayed there.
If the Terminal Price Bar (labelled as D) will be violated, the price will go higher with the predominant trend.
Watch out for 70.42.
Tech ContinuationTech looking poised and strong while coiled over an 8 day trading period. Looking for a continuation in XLK.
XLK Daily Chart Analysis - 11th MayXLK had a nice breakout play from breaking out of the downtrendline :)
XLK Daily Chart Analysis - 7th MayXLK
Charted this previously awhile back and it seems that the bias is an upward breakout.. looks like Tech is back in play
XLK Daily Chart Analysis - 3rd MayXLK is looking pretty interesting as well and as the price consolidates, usually we will see a breakout..
Let's see which direction it breaks out to
XLK technology. Idea for shorter termLast advance of technology set a new high. The big question is that THE TOP or just the first of 5 up waves to THE TOP. As usual I don't know. In the meantime I think there is a good chance the gaps will be closed. One is at the .62 retraction level. The other at the .78 level. Process your way.
1X bull XLK
2X bull etf: ROM. bear REW
3X bull etf: TECL. bear TECS
XLK shortTechnology sector breaking down from med term uptrend from 2016. Below Ichimoku cloud and approaching key s/term support. Below 60 not much support until 54 area.
Short term weakness in the TECH sector?Facebook has been in the limelight for tanking cause of the news , but this chart shows that the tech sector has been tanking for a while now, will it continue I don't know but my outlook is bearish until price breaks through 68.37 in XLK
