Tech rebound dueAfter a descent 15 per cent correction many stocks have come to fair valuations. Fibo 2.0 is the key
XLK trade ideas
Closed: XLK March 18th 160 Short Straddle... for 9.80/contract debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 11.03/contract with various defensive rolls and roll out for duration. (See Post Below). Closed it out today for 9.80, a 1.23 ($123) profit/per contract.
XLK Headed for a double Bottom on 10/4/21 low10/4/21 low in play, below resistance and in Gartley pattern downtrend.
Reversion Strat» Stop Loss can be set in settings. 0.90, means that it will apply a 10% stop loss setting.
» You can set how many shares it buys at a time
» MaPeriod, that is set to 5, looks to buy shares if instruments price dips below this moving average.
» I have set the broker fee to $1, that's what I pay with Interactive Brokers, but you can edit that in the code as you wish
// COMMENTS
//——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
// » MEAN REVERSION SYSTEM, NOT A TREND TRADING SYSTEM
// » DESIGNED TO WORK ON ETF WITH GOOD LINEARITY
// » PRICE MUST BE ABOVE 200 MA
// » CLOSE MUST BE BELOW THE FastMa TO BUY AT LOW PRICES
// » USE ONLY ON DAILY OR HIGHER TIME FRAMES
// » IMPORTS DATA FROM LOWN TICKET TO CHECK THAT NOT TOO MANY STOCKS ARE MAKING NEW HIGHS
Can be used on tickers like
SPY, SPX, SSO, SPXL, TQQQ, QQQ, and sector ETFs like these below.
AMEX:XLE,AMEX:XLF,AMEX:XLK,AMEX:XLB,AMEX:XLU,AMEX:XLI,AMEX:XLV,AMEX:XLY,AMEX:XRT,AMEX:XLP,AMEX:XLRE,AMEX:XLC,AMEX:XSD,AMEX:XTL,AMEX:GXC
Can also be used on stocks, I would recommend adjusting the stop loss and MaPeriod to dip buy
Rolling: XLK February 18th Short Strangles to March 18th 160... short straddle.
Comments: Locking in some realized gains by rolling the 151/160 and the 157C/158P inverted out to the March 18th 160 short straddle. I had to do this in separate rolls, receiving 7.19 in credits for the roll of the 151/160 and 3.67 for the roll of the slightly inverted 157C/158P. I've collected a grand total of 22.07 in credits (11.035/contract) relative to a current setup value of 11.75 per contract, so am still slightly underwater in the position. As usual, will continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep from getting too directional.
Technology possible bear marketThe monetary policy and economy cycle show us a high probability of a lower down movement. After a solid rebound though
Tech Sector Setting Up for Big Monthly Bearish PullbackWe have a Bearish Engulfing on the Monthly along side with extreme amounts of RSI Bearish Divergence and soon the MACD will be crossing bearishly for the first time since 2018. In the past the monthly bearish crossing has lead to at least a 30% correction back down to the 55 Month SMA.
One last thing to note is that if this Monthly Candle continues down a little further and closes below the open of October 2021, this pattern will be upgraded from just a simple Bearish Engulfing to being a Bullish Three Line Strike visible on the Monthly Timeframe which is a very bearish pattern as One Month would have Erased the gains of the Prior 3 Months and at that point you almost have a Guarantee that the Tech Sector will see a much more Sustained Correction the Downside.
Opened: XLK February 18th 158/185 Short Strangle... for a 2.33 credit.
Comments: Selling premium in XLK, which is closely correlated to both the broad market and QQQ, so it's kind of QQQ "lite" (a QQQ 16-delta short strangle would tie up about twice as much buying power). 2.33 credit on buying power effect of 23.28 (on margin). 10.0% ROC at max; 5.0% ROC at 50% max.
Opening: XLK February 18th 151/180 Short Strangle... for a 2.58 credit.
Comments; Adding to my QQQ "lite" position here. Will look to take profit at 50% max, manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
I can also conceivably mix and match sides to take profit and reduce risk, since I've not got four legs on (151P/158P/180C/185C) or take profit on the entire four leg setup at 50% max.
Tech Going Lower?AMEX:XLK
Looking at the XLK chart, more downside appears likely.
The market regime is changing, and a rotation out of growth into value/defensive is in full swing.
XLK is showing Bearish divergence on the MACD & RSI , plus confirmation of the 9EMA is crossing under the 20EMA.
Typically, breakdowns out of this kind of chart pattern usually fall about 10-12%
While I don't believe that will happen immediately, I could see it finding support around the $148 / 0.618 fib level in the next couple of weeks.
I am going to keep an eye on the chart pattern and wait to see a breakdown below it.
Technology retest on a downtrendLooks like broken 50ma is broken and we are having a retest on a way down
XLK (Tech) trend lines since dot.com crash imply room to runHere are some key trend lines and channels since the dot com crash. The line up very well with price action over the last year. If the trend continues, then there is still room to go higher (20-25%) by the end of the year.
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Closed: XLK January 21st 152/181 Short Strangle... for a 1.21 debit.
Comments: Filed for a 2.42 credit (See Post Below), out today at 50% max. 1.21 ($121) profit. Nice way to end the year.
XLKWe traded our Squeeze signal which fired 21 Dec 9:30 with a secondary trade strategy entry on 23 December. Both trades resulted in wins with the ghost feed forecast that was done on the squeeze proving to be 100% accurate on the hourly chart. Two major learns from this trade:
1) know what combination of squeeze indicators work with a high degree of probability on your particular stock - our proprietary tool looks at 6 squeeze oscillators and determines the best combination to trade. We believe that not all squeezes are equal and you should know what you are trading before doing anything.
2) wait for the entry conditions to be correct. For this trade we waited for a cross over the 21 MA while the squeeze signal remains valid for the 1st trade and we waited for our MA tool to generate a strategy entry signal before adding to the trade.
3) Let your trading platform do the heavy lifting and monitoring
4) Trust the data, your plan and your tools
Happy trading!
Opening: XLK January 21st 152/181 Short Strangle... for a 2.42 credit.
Comments: Selling 16 delta premium in the QQQ-"lite" exchange-traded fund, XLF (rank 71/30-day implied 29.7%). 2.42 max profit on buying power effect of 21.63 (on margin); 11.2% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 5.6% at 50% max.
Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
Engulfing Candles Menace Big TechPrice action in the market has grown more cautious, especially toward technology stocks.
The first big pattern occurred on Monday, when the SPDR Technology ETF jumped to a new all-time high above $175. But it was negative within an hour and closed the session under Friday’s low – a big bearish engulfing candle.
Similar patterns appeared on November 22 and December 1.
Next, gains have narrowed in Big Tech as Apple accounts for more of the upside. (Consider the second chart comparing XLK to AAPL.) Meanwhile former workhorses of the sector like ServiceNow and Adobe have teetered.
Finally, MACD made a lower high this month as XLK made a higher high – bearish divergence.
The weakness resembles patterns earlier in the year as bond yields jumped. This time, it occurs shortly before the Fed is expected to accelerate tapering. Is it the start of a new trend as Jerome Powell looks to unwind historic stimulus?
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XLK Crossing 168.20 Approaching resistance for a breakout.XLK Crossing 168.20
Approaching resistance for a breakout.
Technology breakoutA nice breakout towards fibo 3.0, the subbort is very close. If gowing lower the current support, fibo 2.414 next support
Elliott Wave View: Technology ETF (XLK) Looking to Break to New Short Term view in XLK suggests the rally from October 5 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from October 5, wave ((i)) ended at 153.71 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 149.60. Internal of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 150.53 and wave (b) pullback ended at 153.15. Stock then resumes lower in wave (c) which ended at 149.60. This completed wave ((ii)).
The stock has rallied higher in wave ((iii)). Internal of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 151.61 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 150.00. Stock has resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 156.71, wave (iv) ended at 154.61, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 159.18. The pullback in wave ((iv)) has begun to correct cycle from October 12. Wave (a) ended at 157.51. Expect the ETF to bounce higher in wave (b), then we are looking down for wave (c) to complete wave ((iv)) before the rally resumes in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as wave ((ii)) pivot low at 149.60 stays intact, expect wave ((iv)) pullback to find support in 156.91 – 155.97 area for further upside.
watch the trend line , if it breaks down, not goodSee day chart for this ETF
will it breaks down ? your guess is as good as mine
SPDR Technology (XLK) Fund - Touching top of Trading ChannelChannels that I see with the SPDR select technology fund. It was pretty well contained in this channel since 2008, but as you can see the COVID rally has pushed it way above. Right now it is in a larger parallel channel that has its mid line (red dotted) just above the major peaks since 2015. Will this channel hold Tech? HArd to tell, but so far it has been strong enough to buck an 11 year trend.
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