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XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80 As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices surged by over 8.5% last week — marking the largest increase in 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Although oil prices continued to climb earlier this week, a pullback occurred on Tuesday, causing Brent crude to drop below the $80 level. It appears that market participants expect U.S. authorities to prevent the conflict from worsening ahead of the presidential elections, prompting them to lock in profits from previous long positions based on the technical outlook. XBR/USD Technical Analysis Today's analysis of the XBR/USD chart shows that Brent crude is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue) that began in the first half of September. The recent downturn (indicated by an arrow) comes as: → The price has entered a resistance zone, marked by the psychological $80 level and the August highs around $81.5. → The RSI indicator has risen above 85. → The price has touched the upper boundary of the channel. If tensions in the Middle East ease, we could see a pullback on the XBR/USD chart following the impressive rally. Brent crude prices may find support at the median line of the blue channel, the $77.50 level, and the purple lines marking last week’s strong price growth. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions Introduction: The Current Oil Market Landscape Oil prices have always been closely tied to both geopolitical tensions and broader economic trends. At present, the market is contending with a confluence of factors that could lead to a significant rise in prices. Most notably, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran presents a serious risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region that plays a pivotal role in global oil production. However, beyond geopolitical factors, economic measures around the world—such as new stimulus initiatives in China, anticipated global interest rate cuts, and potential central bank actions to inject liquidity into financial markets—also suggest that oil could be on the cusp of a major price surge. Recent price movements have kept oil within a downward channel, with current prices hovering near $77 per barrel, as indicated in the accompanying chart. Yet, this downward trend may be short-lived. Once oil prices break above key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, we could see prices escalate rapidly to $90, $95, and ultimately $100. From that point, the market could enter a new bullish phase, with prices potentially reaching as high as $120, spurred by both geopolitical tensions and increasing real demand. Geopolitical Factors Driving Oil Prices: The Middle East in Focus The Middle East, home to many of the world’s largest oil-producing nations, has long been a region of strategic importance to the global energy market. The current conflict between Israel and Iran is reigniting concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, particularly if the situation escalates into a wider regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, could become a flashpoint if tensions rise. In past conflicts, any disruptions to this narrow passage have sent oil prices soaring due to the immense volume of oil that flows through the region daily. Iran, already constrained by international sanctions, may retaliate by targeting infrastructure or further disrupting oil shipments, while other regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could find themselves drawn into the conflict. Even the perception of instability in the region can cause volatility in oil prices, as traders and speculators seek to hedge against potential supply shocks. Given this backdrop, oil prices are highly sensitive to any developments in the Middle East, and further escalation could push prices beyond key resistance levels. The Economic Context: Global Stimulus and Interest Rate Cuts Beyond geopolitical risks, there are several macroeconomic factors that strongly suggest oil prices are poised for a significant increase. First, the Chinese government has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering its economy, which has faced challenges in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing issues in the real estate sector. These measures are expected to drive demand for commodities, including oil, as China, the world’s largest importer of oil, ramps up its industrial activity and consumer consumption. Simultaneously, central banks across the world are likely to cut interest rates in the near future as global economic growth shows signs of slowing. With inflation moderating in several advanced economies, central banks like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and others could pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy to support growth. Rate cuts tend to increase liquidity in the financial system, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. As liquidity flows into the markets, demand for oil typically increases, as businesses expand operations and consumers spend more on goods and services that require energy inputs. Moreover, there are growing expectations of additional stimulus measures from other major economies to prevent recessionary pressures from taking hold. This influx of liquidity, coupled with China’s own stimulus efforts, is likely to drive global demand for oil higher, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices. The combination of increased demand from economic recovery and potential supply risks due to Middle Eastern tensions creates a perfect storm for oil prices to break out of their current bearish trend. U.S. Strategic Oil Reserves and National Security Concerns Adding to the bullish case for oil is the fact that the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at depleted levels. Over the past two years, the U.S. government has released significant amounts of oil from the SPR in an attempt to curb rising domestic gasoline prices and stabilize global energy markets. However, these releases have reduced the reserve to its lowest levels in decades, and any further large-scale drawdowns are unlikely due to national security concerns. The U.S. government will likely prioritize maintaining the remaining reserves for genuine emergencies, rather than using them as a tool to stabilize market prices. This depletion of the U.S. oil reserves further tightens the global supply picture, as one of the world's largest emergency stockpiles is no longer available as a buffer against sudden supply shocks. In the event of a major supply disruption—whether due to a conflict in the Middle East or other unforeseen events—the absence of a large SPR release would leave the global market more vulnerable, driving prices higher. This, combined with the aforementioned stimulus measures, could create a significant imbalance between supply and demand, leading to sustained upward pressure on oil prices. Technical Analysis of Oil Prices: Breaking Out of the Downward Channel From a technical standpoint, the oil market is currently trading within a downward channel, as depicted in the accompanying chart. Prices have been steadily declining over the past few months, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this trend may be nearing a turning point, particularly as oil prices approach key resistance levels. The first significant level to watch is $87 per barrel. This price has served as a formidable resistance in recent weeks, and breaking above this level would be a clear signal that the market is shifting from a bearish to a bullish phase. Once $87 is breached, the next targets would be $90 and $95, both of which represent important psychological and technical barriers. If oil prices can sustain a move above $95, it would set the stage for a test of the $100 mark—a critical level that has historically acted as both a resistance and support point for oil prices. The $100 level is particularly important because it marks the top of the current downward channel, and a move above this threshold would indicate a reversal of the broader downtrend. A successful breakout above $100 could see oil prices enter a new bullish phase, with the potential to climb as high as $120 per barrel, particularly if geopolitical risks remain elevated and global demand continues to increase due to economic stimulus measures. The Role of Market Sentiment and Future Outlook While technical analysis and geopolitical factors provide strong arguments for a potential rise in oil prices, market sentiment will also play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the market. Currently, investor sentiment is mixed, with many traders cautious about the outlook for global economic growth. However, as central banks around the world begin to ease monetary policy and introduce new stimulus measures, sentiment could shift rapidly toward a more bullish outlook for oil. In particular, hedge funds and large institutional investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from major economies like the U.S. and China. If tensions between Israel and Iran escalate further or if there is a significant disruption to oil supply, it could lead to a sharp rise in speculative buying, driving prices higher. At the same time, if global economic growth accelerates due to stimulus measures, real demand for oil will increase, providing fundamental support for higher prices. Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook for Oil Prices? In summary, oil prices are currently at a critical juncture, with both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors pointing toward a potential breakout from the current downward trend. While the market remains trapped in a downward channel for now, key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, suggest that a significant move higher could be imminent. Once prices break through $87, the next targets would be $90, $95, and ultimately $100—beyond which the market could enter a new bullish phase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, are a major risk factor that could disrupt global oil supplies and send prices soaring. At the same time, new stimulus measures in China, along with anticipated global interest rate cuts and potential central bank interventions to inject liquidity into the markets, are expected to drive demand for oil higher. The depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve further tightens the supply side, adding to the bullish case for oil. Ultimately, oil prices could rise as high as $120 per barrel if these factors align, creating a perfect storm of increased demand, constrained supply, and heightened geopolitical risks. For traders and investors, the oil market presents significant opportunities in the months ahead, as both technical and fundamental indicators point to a potential surge in prices.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by strip
2
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Sept 30 - Oct 4Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Brent Crude Oil, GBP/CAD, US Dollar, Lockheed Martin Stock Welcome to the 100th edition of our Weekly Market Wrap video series! Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. – XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel – Analysis of GBP/CAD: Price Falls Below 1.800 Level – Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Employment Data Release – Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Price Surpasses $600 for the First Time Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. #marketwrap #marketanalysis #forexmarketanalysis #stockmarketanalysis 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Brent rises on geopolitical risks Oil prices have seen a notable rise, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East that threaten to disrupt crude flows from one of the world's most productive regions. In recent sessions, Brent crude futures have risen 1.27% to $74.84 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also seen increases, trading at $71.09. The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iranian-backed armed groups, such as Hezbollah, has generated concern in global markets. Israel recently carried out bombings in Beirut, escalating tensions and increasing nervousness about the possible repercussions on the region's energy infrastructure. However, despite the rise in prices, the oil market remains relatively stable, with U.S. crude inventories reporting an increase of 3.9 million barrels, suggesting adequate supply to cope with any disruption. This abundant supply limits Brent's gains, as many investors believe that OPEC's ability to offset any supply losses could moderate the impact of a prolonged conflict. It is appreciable that while prices could remain elevated in the short term, Iran's oil infrastructure would not be a primary target for Israel, as an attack on these facilities could drive oil prices towards unsustainable levels for the global economy. In conclusion, as geopolitical tensions continue to affect the oil outlook, the market appears to be well supplied, limiting gains amid uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, waiting for a development that could alter this dynamic. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
BRENT oilChart: Brent Crude Oil on the 15-minute time frame. Key Elements: The green channel shows the price oscillating downward, with the price breaking out of this channel to the upside. Order blocks (in gray and red) are noted between the $71.5 - $72.5 range, which may act as zones of institutional buying or selling. MY green prediction line indicates a belief that the price will rise significantly after it hits the liquidity zone around $70.04. This implies that the downward liquidity sweep has potentially completed and now buyers are likely to push the price higher. Overall Analysis: Daily: The price filled a liquidity zone around $70 and may be ready to reverse or retrace upward. 15-minute: On a shorter time frame, it seems like you're predicting a breakout from the order block and a bullish move. This setup could indicate a potential opportunity for a long position if the price respects the order blocks and liquidity fill around the $70 zone
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Broker_Hunter
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on IsraelXBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel Following Israel's military operation in Lebanon, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel on October 1. Financial markets reacted sharply as soon as the first reports of the attack emerged: → U.S. stock indices dropped significantly, and Bitcoin also fell, with BTC/USD nearing the psychological $60,000 mark at yesterday's low. → Gold surged to $2670, though supply forces have since curbed the panic buying, and XAU/USD has dropped back below $2650. Oil prices also spiked. Unlike other financial assets, there has been no correction on the XBR/USD chart today, despite the end of the missile strike on Israel. This highlights oil's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions. According to today’s technical analysis of XBR/USD: → Brent oil price movements have formed an upward channel (shown in blue), beginning in early September. Following the news of the missile attack, the price has climbed into the upper half of the channel. → Interestingly, just before this surge, the price had hit a multi-week low with a false bearish breakout below the psychological $70 per barrel level. Given Israel’s vow to retaliate for Iran's strike, it’s reasonable to assume that oil demand may remain high, potentially pushing XBR/USD towards the upper boundary of the channel, surpassing the current resistance at $75. Brent oil could find support at the median line of the blue channel and the $72.50 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
BRENT CRUDE OIL may drop in price by as much as -65%Today we would like to share my opinion on the possible price of Brent Crude Oil in the coming years, analyzing the chart on a monthly timeframe The war in Ukraine is not just a war between the two countries, it is a geopolitical problem that will affect all world economies. The world's economies have not yet recovered from the Covid-19, and here is another blow. Expensive energy will stop buying due to the excessive cost of production of "everything", the purchasing power of the population falls. Declining demand for oil will bring down the price. The fall in the price of Brent oil -25% in the coming months in the area of ​​$78-80 per barrel will be just the beginning. But looking at the schedule, is striking the price zone of $36-46 to be a strong mirror level and this is -65% of the current price Maybe this is a fair price for oil, from where a total restart of the world economy can take place by purchasing cheap energy resources. Perhaps this is symbolic, but for the first time on the historical price chart of Brent, the zone of $36-46 was established as important when there were powerful geopolitical world changes: 1979-1980 - the Islamic Revolution and 1990-1991 - the collapse of the USSR
TVC:UKOILShort
by P_S_trade
109
Brent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly LowBrent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly Low When analysing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart on 4th September, with Brent crude trading near its yearly low, we: → noted the formation of a descending channel (marked in red); → highlighted key support (marked in yellow), which has now been broken; → suggested the likelihood of an interim upward correction, potentially rising to $74.50. Since then, Brent crude oil: → climbed to $75; → tested the yellow line from below; → then reversed downwards, reaffirming the relevance of the red descending channel (as the bullish breakout attempt failed). Bearish sentiment was fuelled by reports of a potential increase in global oil supply, particularly due to higher production in Libya and Saudi Arabia. Could Brent crude prices continue to fall? From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart today: → The price is in the upper half of the descending channel, indicating that while bears may control the market, it may not be enough to expect a sustained downward trend. → Bulls appear to be active as the price nears the psychological level of $70. This was evident with yesterday’s halt in the price decline around $70.60. → Price dynamics are revealing clearer signs of an upward channel (shown by the purple lines). Considering the above, we cannot rule out the possibility of Brent crude making another attempt to break through the upper boundary of the red channel in the near future. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
BRENT - Potential ShortThere is a potential short coming up on BRENT based on the turning downwards of the stochastic and the crossing of the EMAs. The MACD hasn't crossed yet, but it will if it continues downwards. It is currently trading at a support level from all the way back to last year between March and June. If it breaks through this level successfully, I am pretty sure we will have a nice downward move, but it might just test it again and move slightly upward. If breached, we are aiming for a target at around the 60 level.
VELOCITY:BRENTShort
by RossLarter
LoVE Affair with Black GoldFrom the Castle to the Markets: A Nobleman's Love Affair with Black Gold Ah, black gold , the very lifeblood of nations—how you move with such power, shaping the world and our fortunes with each fluctuation. We find ourselves now 20 days deep into our grand BCOUSD trade, and due to recent geopolitical stirrings, the fruits of our patience are beginning to ripen. With barrels of this earth’s precious lubricant secured at the princely sums of $72 and $73, our hedge has proven most fortuitous. Oh, Oil, you are my sanctuary, my steadfast companion in the turbulent tides of commerce. I understand you, I hear you, I feel you. I know well that you are ascending toward $85 with purpose, driven by forces beyond mere markets. Though I had anticipated parting ways at 25 days, I now sense that our journey must extend a while longer. You have yet more to offer, and I am not ready to release you from my grasp. I shall remain in this trade, for your allure is undeniable, and I do not wish to part before reaping the full bounty you so generously bestow. Ah, how fitting it is that I, from the serene halls of my ancestral estate, should be engaged in such noble pursuits. The grand windows of my castle overlook vast lands, but it is the boundless ocean of crude oil where my fortune truly lies. In these hallowed chambers, where portraits of my forebears gaze down with approval, I contemplate each rise and fall of the market with the precision of a master chess player. Oh, Oil, you are no mere commodity to me—you are the very pulse of the earth, and I, your devoted steward. As you climb toward the glorious $85, I remain vigilant, savoring each movement as one would a fine vintage, knowing that the winds of geopolitics blow in our favor. Though I may tarry longer in this trade than first expected, it is a small price to pay for the rewards that await, as we ascend together toward new heights of wealth and glory.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by MarkLeRoy