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Crude Oil Analysis: Crude Oil Running on EmptyThe price movements affecting crude oil have been fascinating over the past year and a half. During the period in which many Western governments imposed lockdowns on their population, oil was trading at relatively high prices because of logistical and supply chain difficulties created by enforced stay-at-home orders, whilst nations in Asia such as India, Thailand and Japan continued as normal and required as much of the thick black stuff as possible to keep the wheels of industry turning. Once the folly of lockdowns had tested the patience of most of the Western world and the powers that be could no longer carry them out, everything suddenly went back to normal, but supply chain disruptions continued as the 'work from home' phenomenon was difficult to curtail. Prices remained relatively high. However, in the early months of 2022, many of the same countries that imposed lockdowns began to band together to enforce trade sanctions on the Russian Federation and its industry. One of the largest industries in that particular country is oil extraction and refinement and the production of oil-based energy products. Indeed, Russia is an OPEC+ nation and one of the largest producers and exporters of petrochemical products in the world. These sanctions meant that Russian oil companies could not access their bank accounts in which settlement for oil supply is made; hence many European customers had to begin to settle the supply of oil by Russian companies by paying in Rubles into a bank account in Moscow or face having their supply curtailed. This caused a rise in the price of crude oil and much of Europe to face an energy price crisis in which the cost of heating homes or running vehicles became astronomical. Today, things are somewhat different. The price of crude oil is, compared to a year ago, on the floor. In fact, it is very low compared to even one month ago, and over the five-day moving average until the end of trading on May 12, it is down considerably. On May 2, we witnessed the lowest value of crude oil in over a year, and on May 12, the second lowest since May 2. Brent Crude Oil is down 3.4% over the past five days and a staggering 29.9% in a year. Oil is an interesting asset class, however. This is because it is one of the only consumable commodities that exists. Gold and other precious metals do have an engineering use case, but they are really seen as stores of value as far as investment and trading are concerned, whereas oil is bought and sold entirely for the purpose of use as an energy product; therefore, its value is affected by supply and demand. Right now, many OPEC nations are in the midst of an oil production slowdown. For the month of April, Nigeria's oil production was below 1 million barrels per day, representing its lowest level in 7 months. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and a few other oil-producing nations in the Middle East have been cutting oil production by one million barrels of oil a day, and Russia is set to extend its reduction in production to half a million barrels per day until the end of 2023. As is to be expected, the US Government has criticised this move, but the OPEC nations, which are responsible for the supply of over 30% of the world's oil, are known for being able to control the market to protect the combined value of their assets. In October 2022, the last time a cut in production was conducted by oil-producing nations, an increase in value of 5% took place. This reduction in production is being viewed as a means of curtailing supply to ramp up the price of crude oil; therefore, following the price of crude oil is likely to be interesting given its low value now and potentially high value once the cut has taken place. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Oil One Step From a Major Buy SignalThursday brings us a short update on brent oil. This instrument has been heavily bombarded recently by the macro data, not only for oil, but also the macro data for the USD. Let’s start with the one for oil. Yesterday’s inventories. Data came in hot (bullish for oil) as the number were significantly below expectation, showing a decrease of 4.5 mln barrels from the previous week. Well, how about that? As for the USD, yesterday’s less hawkish FED was bearish for the dollar, so again, bullish for instruments quoted in the dollar like our oil. So, we had two positive sets of information for oil and yes, brent used it wisely. Oil One Step From a Major Buy Signal As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) at the July meeting, taking the target rate range to 2.25%–2.5%. This is just below the Fed’s estimate for a neutral policy stance in the longer run (2.5%). At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that “modestly restrictive” monetary policy is warranted by the current economic fundamentals, including elevated inflation, and mentioned that another outsize rate hike may be necessary at the next meeting in September in order to ensure monetary policy is restrictive. The overall movement of gold prices was bearish since inflation numbers rose and the U.S dollar index moved bullishly. However, there might be a change in the situation as gold prices currently moving upward while the U.S dollar index stalled and the stock market is trading slightly lower. If gold prices could continue the bullish movement and close above $1,800 then the bullish trend is set to continue. Silver prices bounced from the $18.50 support level and made a bullish close yesterday. There is a bullish continuation in today’s trading session which brings the price near the $20.00 handle. If the price could maintain the bullish pressure and continue upward to close above $21.35 then the price will start a new bullish trend. Crude oil prices situation is not good for the bull as the price could not maintain the bullish pressure. There is a bullish attempt today but the price currently trading below the opening level. If the price is pushed lower and closes below $95.25 then traders will prepare for a bearish continuation. How far will OIL GO UP? Well, if you ak this question then you are no professional, experienced trader, but a naive one, and have not understoad the purpose of trading. Keep it simple. Keep your stops alert.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO/WTI HEAVY SHORT Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid loWSWeekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling his summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling. Adviser To Iranian Negotiating Delegation: The Chances Of Reaching A Nuclear Agreement Are Very Great ajel.sa Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22. Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest. Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low. MY WTI BCO STRATEY: HEAVY SHORT SELLING TARET:.... read in my member blog
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
UKOIL's Slippery Slope Heads Towards $60 Before New ATH of $500+Based on analysis of UKOIL's all-time chart from year 18xx, I believe it to be in a massive Flat correction. With Wave A of the Flat stretching down from $145 to $16, this gives implication that Wave B is likely to move up to the range of $331-$557, likely before the year 2030 arrives. RSI divergence on the monthly chart should also be present during the anticipated run to an ATH. If so, this will confirm a very deep and sharp move to follow.
TVC:UKOIL
by DigitalSurfTrading
Crude Oil Is at Lowest Point in Over a Month as US Economy TeeteOver the past year, the price of crude oil has been interestingly volatile. In keeping with other periods in modern history during which the United States has been involved in geopolitical conflicts with regions outside of the Western world, oil prices have been varying with verve and vigour since 2020. Back in the 1970s, the famous' oil crisis' was caused by members of the OPEC oil-producing nations in the Middle East invoking a trade embargo against the United States following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which took place between the State of Israel and some of its neighbours. The result was extremely high oil prices across Western nations, particularly the United States, due to a lack of supply that could not meet the demand and fuel-saving measures such as the introduction of a 55-mile-per-hour speed limit for motor vehicles. Due to its nature as a consumable commodity, oil is not only a tradeable asset but also an energy product, and the oil-producing nations can use it as a bargaining tool on the political table. Over the past year, the price of crude oil has varied dramatically due to the trade sanctions placed on the Russian Federation by North American and European nations, which have meant that Russian oil companies have not been able to access their bank accounts in which oil supply is usually settled in such nations, hence the need for Western customers to settle directly in rubles to bank accounts in Russia, or to have to face restricted supplies. More recently, just one month ago, Saudi Arabian oil giants reported that they intended to scale back oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in an effort to bolster oil prices as part of a large-scale attempt by OPEC+ nations. The status quo has now largely been accepted, and oil supply has been generally steady worldwide, with price fluctuations now part of the trading landscape and the everyday reality for consumers. In Britain, the government introduced a 'cost of living allowance,' payable to many members of the public, in order to assist with the ongoing cost of living crisis, in which the cost of fuel to heat homes or drive to work are both important factors. This week, however, the price of oil has dropped significantly. Brent Crude took a sudden dive in price yesterday from $77.03 per barrel at 8.30 am during the European trading session to $73.60 during the night. This sudden volatility was preceded by a sharp rise to $77.04 per barrel during the previous night, which represented a short-lived spike before the slump made its presence felt. Interestingly, the drop in the price of Brent Crude Oil has continued despite the oil inventories in the United States having decreased by 3.939 million barrels during the course of this week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. Some analysts are levelling the cause of this at the possibility of a debt default by the United States, which is currently being discussed by politicians who may look once again at interest rate increases this week. Should an interest rate rise take place, it would counteract the White House's position early last week when it was considered that inflation had become under control to the extent that any possible interest rate rises in the near future would be ruled out. Next week, President Joe Biden is set to meet with four US Congress leaders. His position has been anticipated as steadfast in the advent of this meeting, with Mr. Biden understood to have declared that he will not negotiate over the US debt ceiling. The debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States currently stands at approximately 123%. To give some indication of where that stands on the world stage, the debt to GDP ratio in the United Kingdom is approximately 85%, and in Switzerland, it is 39%. With oil prices now at a new low, it is worth observing the purchasing patterns of countries with equally good relationships with Europe and Russia with regard to crude oil, such as China, India, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Singapore. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), these five nations are currently engaged in buying oil from Russia's oil giants and then reselling it to European customers. This method of circumventing direct sanctions could ease supply and demand issues further and have an effect on prices. Looking at the cost to consumers, unleaded fuel for vehicles is approximately 1.49p per litre across the UK at the pumps, whereas this time last year, it was almost £2. This article represents FXOpen Companies’ opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to FXOpen Companies’ products and services or as financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen