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BRAZILIAN REAL / MEXICAN PESO

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BRLMXN trade ideas

BRLMXN | 2021 Grand Slam Trade📌 Another classical procedure can be witnessed here, the combination of fundamentals and technicals, of BRL and MXN, and a live example of an instrument finding a floor for the long run. This advance would (and of course I am considering) be worth attacking and having some involvement rather than laying bare the base of Brazil and Mexico. The correct play is to wait patiently for a confirmed break and hold long enough for the Peso to flee. Be long Brazil, stay long the Real and play the break as follows: Firstly, the BRL diagram which is showing as with a few other currencies signs of bottoming versus USD, and the following two macro formations of Brazilian inflows and Mexican outflows. These drivers are going to dictate the pace and will allow a breakout on BRLMXN for a +50% move. This is not talking in pips, pips are for pipsqueak's... this is a macro swing, a full blown % move which starts as a hedge and when it begins to work with the break it means we can go HARD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle: Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry. If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside. Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely). Good luck those on the buy side.
Long
by ridethepig
Aggressively buying Brazil for the long termHere we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 50 and 61.8% weekly retracement levels at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as 7.25-7.28... here actively working a lot on the buy side in Brazil. Best of luck, hope this helps and lets see how it goes.
Long
by ridethepig
2
BRLMXN has plenty of upside...Here we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 38.2% level at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as 7.25-7.28... here actively working a lot on the buy side in Brazil. Best of luck, hope this helps and lets see how it goes.
Long
by ridethepig
3