ONGC trade ideas
18 June 2023 $ONGC: The oil money longNSE:ONGC
Reports came out yesterday stating that Russian oil is making up 30% of India's imports as stated India's largest publicly owned oil & natural gas firm. This comes at a crucial period for Russia after being hammered by economic sanctions, as we can tell with the war, it is firmly narrowing down into a war of attrition, and this war can only be funded if Russia feels economic security, this reason so puts greater trust into BRIC stocks and will definitely see some sort of financial injections in the coming year(s).
India hosting the largest population in the world is focused on 2 main objectives especially following the recent tragic train crash. 1. How can they lift the largest workforce in a similar manner to China up? 2. How can they compete neck to neck with Shanghai/LA/NYC/London/HK. Possessing a significantly advantageous location on the world map, India's future will soon be determined by policies made NOW. For India to achieve these objectives, at the very baseline, it requires public infrastructure and, none of that can run without the veins of oil.
Thus, this bet is betting on India's persistence and future in general on its most necessary growth factor commodity. The balance sheets show a well maintained company with efficient enough statistics.
Currently, it's Price-to-sales are about 0.29 with industry average at about 0.66. Meaning at the moment, ONGC is well undervalued. On top of that, its EBITDA is at 11.02 with Industry average at 8 exemplifying the company's healthy financial status and good cash flow. Beta value sits at 0.73 showing low volatility in comparison to the market and lastly, quarterly price to book is at 0.7 showing it is a great stock to buy at it's current value.
I have long term entries at this with buys at 150, 152, 146 and 139 respectively. I will be DCAing this over time but I don't expect a drop to these levels any time soon.
ONGC--Near its Demand Zone??Observations::
------>> Facing resistance in the zone @168 ,we have a demand zone in the range 162-160 range.
price is falling from resistance with consolidation, price may take the support of demand zone,
and again moving back to the resistance or resistance may broken.
Keep on buy side from this zone.
Break down in ongcOil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NS:ONGC) which holds a weightage of around 0.79% in Nifty 50 is looking weak on the chart. The company has a market capitalization of INR 2,08,832 crores and trades at a TTM P/E ratio of a mere 4.94. FIIs were seen trimming their stake in the company for the last three quarters, cutting it down from 9.97% in June 2022 to 7.97% by March 2023 end.
ONGC-- Reversal or Up side??ONGC--Observations:
---->> Price reached the strong Resistance at 165-167 zone.
------->>previous strong sell off happens here, after a long time it is testing Supply zone again.
------>> Strong fall and weakness in buyers is observed.
-------->> Look for sell side opportunity or buy on breakout of this zone.
ONGC Buy for intraday tradingONGC Buy for intraday trading if stock breaks the given resistance level..........
ONGC Sell for intraday tradingONGC Sell for intraday trading if stock break the given resistence level.........
Short ONGC at 148Short ONGC at 148 for target of 142. approx 3 % in 2 weeks. If it breaks lower trend line then further downside possible.
ONGC view chart Government company stock
PROS
Stock is trading at 0.66 times its book value
Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 7.13%.
Company is expected to give good quarter
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 38.3%
CONS
The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.7% over past five years.
Company has a low return on equity of 11.7% over last 3 years.
Contingent liabilities of Rs.76,693 Cr.
Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -4.09%
ONGC is good for swing??as per nalysis ongc in good support 143 is good support and expected target 166
ONGC looks like a value buy. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Ltd. is a public sector undertaking whose operations are monitored by Ministry of Operations and Natural gas, Government of India. ONGC is India’s largest government owned oil and gas explorer and producer. Its CMP is 143.75. Negatives of ONGC are such that there is a decline in quarterly net profits, decline in net cash flow and FII’s are decreasing their stake in the firm. Positives are followed by that they have no debt, book value per share is improving and MF’s are increasing their stake in the firm. Entry can be taken after closing above 145. Targets will be 154 and 166. Stop loss can be maintained at closing below 133. Dividend yield of the company at CMP is 8.2%.
ONGC swing tradeONGC is in good condition right now. After a long correction, it looks bullish and can escalate to 156-160.
NSE:ONGC
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd Long Fundamental Analysis
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. is the largest crude oil and natural gas company in India, contributing almost seventy one percent to Indian domestic production, and is also the one of most profitable PSU in India.
Revenue Mix of the company
• Crude Oil - 70% of FY21 revenue
• Natural Gas - 17% of FY21 revenue
• Value Added Products(VAP) - 13%
VAP includes products such as LPG, Naphtha, Ethane – Propane, Butane, and superior kerosene oil. ONGC is catering 93.5% of revenue is from India and 6.5% through International Trade.
Key Data :
Stock PE Ratio 3.48
Industry PE Ratio 17.8
PB Ratio 0.67
Current Market Price INR 138
Book Value INR 206
ROE 19.50%
Dividend Yield 7.62%
High/Low 195/120
52W Index 24%
PEG Ratio 0.24
** Eye opening facts are, book value of company is INR 206 while stock is traded with stock exchange around INR 138.
** PE Ratio of stock is mere 3.48 as against Industry PE ratio of 17.8
** As per recent quarterly data, revenue is rising on quarter on quarter basis.
** Global Crude oil price is set on rise since couple of days. ONGC is one of the largest crude extraction companies as far as India is concerned. So, increase in crude price in global level favorable for ONGC.
As per Elliot Wave, stock is likely to touched INR 148 in couple of days. However with strong backing of fundamental data and global trend, stock may touched his 52 week high ( INR 195) once again in couple of days.
** I am not SEBI Registered Investor. This business analysis is for education purpose only. Your comments/suggestions are welcome.
ONGC Long Trendline BreakoutONGC good for long entry at CMP 136.5 with SL 132 and targets of 155, 167 and 200+ levels
ONGC - Supply emerged above 150 in Feb'22This was after more than 4x up from 40 in Mar'20 (to 180 in Mar'22)
Plan ahead => could consider to Buy above 150
- and/ or Rejections near 100
PB 0.7x
PE 4x
DE 0.5x
ROCE 15%
DivYld 7%
Ongc swing trade opportunity A break of structure and use increasing volume clearly indicates starting of a supplies zone.
Buy near the red horizontal line and expect a strong bull run from there
ONGC BREAK IT'S SUPPORT AND 200 EMA AND DOING RETESTONGC BREAK IT'S SUPPORT AND 200 EMA AND DOING RETEST
Target and Stoploss given
BULLISH HARMONIC PATTERN - ONGC - GREAT ENTRY !Bullish Harmonic Pattern Established, possible targets mentioned in the chart
Disclaimer - This is not a buy or sell advice. I am sharing what I see on the chat & what I am trading, based on my own knowledge & understanding. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any bets in the stock market. I will not be responsible for any profit/loss you incur on your trades based on my published ideas.
ONGC Positional view for upsideNSE:ONGC has retraced 50% on its monthly chart. My view that it can move up after some time of consolidation.
Best level to enter is 122.50-120
My upside target will be:
1st target : 139 & 2nd target: 160
Will exit if price goes below level of 113
Note: This is my personal analysis, only for learners
ONGC sell for intraday tradingONGC sell for intraday trading if stock break the given support level................
