Time to worry for Sensex bubble on daily time frame sensex formed double top With hammer candle on Friday
SENSEX trade ideas
SENSEX BSE TOMORROWSEEING TOWARDS THE TREND BSE:SENSEX
SENSEX MAY FALL TOWARDS THE TARGETS AS PER MARKET SITUATION AND IF MARKET RESPECTS THE REJECTION ZONE THEN THE FALLS ARE CLEAR
India Scares, ISM Disappoints, and Munger CursesAs it's been usual in recent weeks, India has been the main destroyer of sentiment in the financial markets. The pandemic is raging there. And although the central authorities of the country stubbornly refuse to announce a nationwide lockdown, individual states and the capital of the country are forced to declare it.
As a result, it becomes more and more obvious that India will not see double-digit GDP growth in 2021. The surge in the pandemic in the country has already minus about 7M jobs and triggered an increase in unemployment to 8% in April from 6.5% in March.
And then the ISM data came on business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Most of the elements, as well as the index as a whole, turned out to be below the analysts' forecasts.
One cannot help but recall the old rule of investors: “sell in May and leave the market”. If we analyze the statistics of the behavior of stock markets, including the United States, over the past few decades, it turns out that the worst time of the year for the market is the period from May to October, and the best is the period from October to May (the so-called Halloween Effect). So, statistically, now is the time to fix profits in longs and go into cash or even sell on the US stock market.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing tectonic shifts. Bitcoin, which at the start of the year with a share of 70% was essentially cryptocurrency markets, is rapidly losing its status as a crypto monopoly. The share dropped to 46%. Largely due to the rapid growth of ether, as well as Doge and Binance coins.
Charlie Munger from Berkshire Hathaway will remind you of what professionals think about the cryptocurrency market. During the Q&A session at the Berkshire meeting, he branded cryptocurrencies as best he could, calling them a disgusting development, useful only to kidnappers and ransomware. The position, of course, is quite an ultimatum, but it has a very tangible, reasonable grain.
Week in a Glance: India, Fed, US GDP and Biden's Plans As for the pandemic, the past week was marked by the catastrophe in India, which became the sole and undisputed world leader in the pandemic. In general, we noted a year ago that India, being the country with the highest population density and even in theory unable to organize social distancing, is a powder keg. Yes, it didn't explode last spring, but it does that now. It is very likely that a new type of virus with a double mutation is to blame.
India ended the week with 400K + new infections per day and an increase in the global proportion of cases, which is starting to approach 50% of the global number of cases. We don't think it's worth talking about the collapse of the country's medical system. The capacity of the crematoria is not enough, so they returned to the good old burning at the stake, the result of which was a shortage of firewood. In general, it’s an absolute horror.
Considering that it was India that was the driver of the global economy growth in recent years, it was somewhat strange against this background to see records of commodity markets: copper prices reached their highest level in 10 years, and prices for soybeans, wheat and corn reached their highest levels in eight years.
However, the world is stratified every day more and more. Where vaccination campaigns have been adequately organized, countries are showing rapid economic recovery, which is driving up commodity prices.
Last week, the US reported first-quarter GDP growth, the highest since 2003 (excluding the statistical outlier in the third quarter of 2020).
Optimism was also fueled by a super-successful reporting season, as well as Biden's next plans: this time the US President announced a large-scale "American Families Plan" worth $1.8 trillion. Well, the Fed has traditionally been on the side of the optimists, leaving the parameters of monetary policy unchanged and assuring the markets of the current exchange rate inviolability. That is, the ultra-soft policy as well as an abundance of cheap money has been.
The coming week is interesting primarily with statistics on the US labor market, as well as the results of the Bank of England meeting and figures on China's trade balance.
The Fed's Pause, and Biden Presents Another PlanThe Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed yesterday left the base rate unchanged in the range from 0% to 0.25% and kept the monthly rate of bond purchases at $120 billion. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank Jerome Powell once again confirmed that in the foreseeable future, the parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged, despite the success of the vaccination campaign and the rapid recovery of the US economy.
Financial markets have received another confirmation that the holiday of cheap money continues and you can continue to buy everything that is on sale. For the sake of fairness, we note that despite the total overvaluation of the US stock market, companies such as Apple or Alphabet, judging by the latest quarterly reports, really have a reason to buy. Yesterday, for example, Apple reported a 54% increase in revenue over the same period last year. At the same time, all (!) segments of the company demonstrated double-digit growth. Well, the cherry on top for buyers was the announcement of a $90 billion share buyback program.
US President Biden tried not to fall out of the general festive context. In his first address to Congress, he unveiled a massive $1.8 trillion American Families Plan. In fact, we are talking about the practical implementation of the basic values of the democrats - to redistribute financial resources from the rich to the poor. Biden's plan aims to help low-income Americans by raising taxes on wealthy Americans.
On the issue of inequality, but on a global scale. New York will lift curfews for bars and restaurants on May 17, and Delhi's mayor is trying to stabilize supplies of wood that is starting to be scarce as cremations continue to rise.
India Pulls the World into the Abyss, Bank of Canada and ECBIndia keeps on churning out anti-records literally every day. Yesterday, they crossed the mark of 300K cases per day (more than a third of the global number of cases), and the number of deaths per day confidently exceeded 2K. And this despite the fact that we see only the tip of the iceberg, since the level of testing is insufficient to form any objective picture. But even what is seen is enough to panic.
Tellingly, financial markets largely ignore what is happening in India. The only one who somehow tries to take into account in prices the deepest crisis in the country's economy, which has been the driver of the growth of the entire world economy in the last 10 years, is oil. But even there, the decline is more than moderate. The Indian stock market has not moved away from the highs even by 10%, which is fundamentally at odds with any logic and common sense. Or the markets are hoping for a miracle and decided to wait for it. We believe that there are no miracles, which means that the same SENSEX can and should be sold.
In general, the stratification of realities has been seen more precisely. Let us recall the recent reports by OPEC and IEA, which raised their forecasts for the growth rate of oil demand amid a sharp deterioration in the pandemic situation in the world. Despite the fact that the same organizations in the previous months lowered their forecasts against the background of an improvement in the epidemiological situation.
Also, consider the results of yesterday's meeting of the Bank of Canada. The rate was expectedly left unchanged, but at the same time the Central Bank revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 from 4% to 6.5%. The steps are clearly premature, since only a few countries in the world were able to more or less stabilize the pandemic situation. And in the modern globalized world, the problems of the world are necessarily transformed into the problems of a single country.
The ECB will announce the results of its meeting today. Most likely, the monetary policy parameters will not be changed, but economic forecasts may be revised. In addition, you should pay attention to the data on jobless claims in the United States.
BSE sensex hi there market is on a confusion area thats why i want to wait for level to reach. i am a reactive not predictive. but at this current situation market need a pullback to grab some liquidity and for this market need to go down. my all areas are shown for reactive market. wait for it. and i inform all the major news for this areas
sensexthere is a very strong level shown act resistence .at this memonet market price go lower and also pendamic issue is incrise this probability
Alibaba's Fines, CoinBase IPO and the Fall of IndiaThe week started with a number of negative news for individual countries and companies. India has suffered the most at the country level. Indian stocks tumbled on Monday (Sensex fell 3.4%) as rising Covid-19 cases continue to weigh on investor sentiment. India has registered 168,912 new Covid cases in the past 24 hours, the sixth record increase in seven days. That does not stop religious pilgrims from mass bathing in the Ganges with all that it implies. In general, there is enough reason to expect the continuation of the sell-off in the Indian stock market.
Although the presence of the grounds does not at all guarantee the fact of movement in the direction of the grounds. Consider Alibaba for example. China imposed a record $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (nearly double the previous record high in 2015 when US chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. was hit) after antitrust investigations revealed Alibaba was abusing its market dominance. The penalty itself is a record one, and for the company itself the amount is quite significant, since it is 12% of net profit. It would seem worthwhile to expect sales. Instead, the stock rallied nearly 10%.
In general, market sentiment continues to be in the zone of heightened optimism. The US stock market continues to churn out records. And in the cryptocurrency market, everyone is at a low start and is waiting for the go-ahead from CoinBase for a new leap up. We are talking about the much-hyped and long-awaited IPO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States (it will be listed on Nasdaq on April 14 under the ticker “COIN”). Preliminary capitalization estimates are around $100 billion, making this IPO one of the largest in history.
The most likely scenario for the development of events is a sharp rise in prices. The cryptocurrency market in general feels too good (doubled in the last couple of months) and CoinBase in particular (as expected, by the end of the first quarter, revenues will be almost twice as high as in THE WHOLE OF 2020). But if the IPO fails, it could be a signal for a bubble to burst in the cryptocurrency market. In the end, behind all this growth, one should not forget that the cryptocurrency market is a big price bubble that will invariably burst - it's only a matter of time.
Sensex off to 45000 by March 2021Bears must have been happy to see the rising wedge formation all this while when the V shaped recovery resumed to claim the former top but cooled off at ~39500. The rising wedge formation did validate for a while and shared the target of ~34500 from a 'measured move' perspective. Note the divergence from the RSI while it tends to form a falling wedge which is the only caution this time.
But hey, bulls are back. So I suspect the possible H&S pattern as a trend 'reversal indicator' in formation turning sentiment from bearish/neutral to bullish and once the right shoulder forms completely (give or take 3 months) we would enter to claim new ATH most likely before April 2021.
45000 Sensex is incoming!
SENSEX is Falling 01/02/2021as we can see
we have bearish Divergence with MACD Signal and MACD Histogram and it is at the end of a bullish trend which is happening post corona Pandemic and it can be interpreted as trend reversal and Distribution time
now it can be the time for some correction and retraces
we have analyzed the daily Timeframe and used Price Action Strategy to find the accumulation zones
these areas are also having confluences with Fibonacci retracement levels which are good areas to target or enter
we may have a small bullish Spike but the overall scenario is bearish from now onwards
bse sensexHI THERE
AT THIS MOMENT MARKET IS A GOOD BULLISH TRAND. BUT MARKET NEED TO SOME CORRECTION FOR STRANGHT. AND GRAB SOME LEQUIDITY. MY THINK IS MARKET IS NOW A RESISTENCE AREA AND GOING TO TEST SOME PREVIOUS AREA. AS I MANTION MY AREA IS 52554-52574 IS A MAJOR RESISTENCE AREA
Sensex Long term trading ideasSensex looks good for long term basis bullish above 50330 and support on longer Time frame 47000
"BSE:SENSEX" - "SELL" signal 15 min (Solved Signal 1)-SELL signal generated by "Solved Signal 1(SS1)" in 15 min Chart of "BSE:SENSEX" Index
- "BSE:SENSEX" 15 min chart
- Indicator used "Solved Signal 1(SS1)"
- Solved Signal 1 generates SELL signal(by default: text:- SS1,color=red,shape=triangledown)
on 15 min chart of "BSE:SENSEX"' .It means "BSE:SENSEX" can go down.
-Solved Signal 1 "BSE:SENSEX" Price data for Solving the Market(See description of Indicator).
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