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S&P BSE Sensex Index

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SENSEX trade ideas

Politechnical Analysis of BSE Sensex from 2004 to 2024Starting 2004 was a New Era of the Indian Political System wherein former RBI Chief and Finance Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh was elected as the Prime Minister of India. From there the Indian markets saw a quick growth and transformation, Sensex rocketed from 4800 levels to 21,000 level in a matter of 4 yrs. Then came the Sub Prime crisis in US which rattled the Global Market crashing stocks market by 60-70% globally. There on the Sensex took its time to re establish growth. The Congress Govt faced huge backlash from the country on their governance, integrity and top party leaders had to face corruption allegations against them. The markets retested the previous highs of 2008 levels of before Sub-Prime Crisis, but could never breakout. The confidence was in the market was subdued for 6 years and the market just couldn't breakout. March 2014, was the anticipation month of a new government, new hope, and the markets took that confidence to breakout from the 2008 Pre Subprime crisis highs. April 2014 the election fever was at high, the market were turning volatile and at the same time an indecisiveness could be felt. Then came the result month May 2014, BJP won and the markets shot itself up. There were a little blips in between due to Global Economic factors in 2016. But the next two years, saw an acceleration. The Midcaps and Small Caps were outperforming like never before. The amazing earnings of companies kept the markets soaring high. TRADE WAR, COVID 19 and "Aatma Nirbhar" Jan 2018, Trump had declared a Trade War on China, the trigger for Indian markets to fall was the Feb 2018 budget. From hereon the growth was subdued, Even though in 2 year the Sensex made a high of 42,000, the growth was only 4-5% over the 2 yrs. The markets kept looking quite weak as the earnings started taking a hit in most of the sectors. The valuations were still soaring and now the markets was expecting something new and big from the Modi lead BJP Govt. Even though the Finance Minister brought some corporate tax reform, which enable the markets to touch 42,000 mark. Just as the government was to bring the $5trillion Indian dream to reality, the world is hit by a deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19). This changes everything. Never ever anyone could imagine that life would come to a standstill. It crashed the markets horribly. The Prime Minister now takes this decision and brings about a new term that will/may change the future of India. The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India). Right now what the markets are actually doing is "Retesting the Governance of Modi BJP 2014". When I say retesting the governance, technically, the Markets may retest the entire rally from March 2014 breakout which also is a 61.8% fibonaaci retracement level from the lows of Sub Prime crisis to the highs of 2020. If the market is confident of the Modi Govts dream project of "Aatma Nirbhar Bharat" (Self Reliant India), We could see a mirror image (backwards) of 2004 to 2014 and an astonishing swing from 21,121 to 93,000 by May 2024. This rally would be called as "Aatma Nirbhar Rally".
INDEX:SENSEXEducation
by AkshatGupta
Long term view for BSE-SENSEXSo far market was in parabolic move until the current crash due to pandemic. Market enter the bearish territory after small showing some upward moves, same was reflected in 2007-2008 with almost same retracement. The red line the support line for the parabolic curve . As the market is bearish hence the long term support will be at 21k and will have consolidation between 21k and 18k mostly. Why i think this will happen.There are several reason behind the market bearishness few are listed below. 1) Current stimulus package of 20 lac cr. didn't surprise as definitely it help market to move up for sometime but there is no fact behind such move as per economic theories where demand and supply is disturb. 2) 2nd quarter earning will be out in July. looking at current state of lock down surely earning will not surprise market very much hence a sudden fall is expected by July 1st week. 3) Due to continuous extension of lock down it become sure the virus not going to be in control in India very such with couple of weeks which will disturb further consumption affecting demand and supply. I will post my view once we move to the support level for further market direction. Market can surprise anytime hence no analysis is concrete hence always alter and move with the trend.
INDEX:SENSEXLong
by Sam69569
Third Time Lucky?We talked about this in our last update, if the BSE:SENSEX could actually pierce through the resistance at 31,123 to move higher. That may not be the case. Well so far, let's wait till end of day to draw any conclusions. There have been a number of holidays in April, so this sort of erratic behavior can only be expected. We close for Good Friday, and open for one day on Monday before the next public holiday on Tuesday. It's a long week, so stay home, stay safe. May your longs go up, and your shorts go down!
BSE:SENSEX
by bayfolio
I was wrong, but I was never in doubt about the $SENSEX!Just after I published a recording on a dead cat bounce, immediately after the market started inching upwards, as if someone had switched a bot on. Was this a coincidence, or are there bigger conspiracies at play :D -- or was insider buying taking place? I don't watch / listen to the news, because it brings very little value these days. And the markets factor everything before the reports can report. So what's going on? Take a look at the 5 minute chart to see unusual buying behavior. Could it be just pharma stocks rock and rolling or could it be MSCIs weightage adjustment for India. Let's have a relook and decide what needs to be done next.
BSE:SENSEX
by bayfolio
Could we be looking at a dead cat bounce in BSE?While the BSE:SENSEX index is showing some strength today, are we out of the woods? India is still in just the first week of a 21 day / 3 week lock down. I'm sure many traders don't have anything better to do at home, so trading might be their stress buster! Just wait until their wives ask them to buy 'subji' instead of 'stocks' :D I may be saying this like a broken record, but lock downs are not the solution. I could elaborate on this, but it won't be worth the time and effort. In the meanwhile, watch the charts to see how the price action is. Whether this is a dead cat bounce or a dead horse bounce, we'll find out in a few days/weeks. Till then hang on... may your longs go up, and your shorts go down!
BSE:SENSEXShort
by bayfolio