BTC Dominance - When does ALT SEASON start?Greetings! I'll tell you that even though altcoins are doing great, I don't believe alt season has started. Certainly some alts have done very well. ADAUSDT has been one of the biggest winners, for exmaple, over the last 60 days, moving roughly 200% in a short period of time. SUIUSDT has done very well, too.
Don't let that fool you. There's still more work that needs to be done and several alts have not moved a whole lot compared to their lows and are still far from their prior highs.
I outline in the video the importance of breaking this lead-in level (in green) and only then do I think alt season has already started. Certainly this is a statement that is easy to say. One could suggest we're already in alt season, and that very well could be, but confidence increases drastically once this lead-in trendline is broken. Break this, and I don't think you're late to the game. You may be buying things higher than the lows, but the upside potential in alts is significant as we've seen in previous cycles.
Spread your capital around and don't hyperfocus on one single altcoin and you should be fine. Don't overleverage yourself, either. Trade wisely and protect your capital.
Take care everyone!
BTC.D trade ideas
Bitcoin Dominance Is DroppingBitcoin dominance has finally shown some signs of weakness, though it’s impossible to say if this is temporary. After reaching nearly 62%, it has dropped below 60% and currently sits at 58.85%. This decline hints at renewed interest and capital flowing into altcoins, which is typically seen at this stage in the cycle. If you recall the chart I shared last week, “alt seasons” began in December of both 2016 and 2020. Fingers crossed for altcoin traders and investors.
ALT Season AheadHey,
I wanted to share some thoughts on the current market dynamics and what I’m observing in BTC dominance.
If you’re invested in ALT coins—especially legacy coins like ETH, XRP, or even RUNE—you might feel like your returns are lagging significantly. The truth is, they are. Let me break down the relationship between ALTs and BTC dominance to give you some context.
I use TOTAL3 and BTC dominace charts, check them out.
There’s a strong inverse correlation between BTC Dominance and TOTAL3. Historically, when BTC Dominance trends downward, ALTs begin to outperform, experiencing substantial growth relative to BTC. This shift often marks the period when ALT coins start “shining.”
Interestingly, during the last cycle, BTC didn’t peak at the height of BTC Dominance. Instead, BTC peaked after ALTs had a massive rally, during a period when BTC Dominance ranged in the 40-50% zone.
Currently, BTC Dominance remains in a strong uptrend with no clear signs of slowing. For this reason, before heavily shifting into ALTs or taking profits on BTC longs, I’m waiting for a momentum shift in BTC Dominance. Even a simple trendline break to the downside could signal that capital is flowing out of BTC and into ALTs. This doesn’t necessarily mean BTC will lose value; in fact, it might continue climbing. However, it does indicate a tipping point where ALTs could begin to significantly outpace BTC, offering much greater upside potential.
That said, it’s important to consider the growing institutional interest in BTC. Unlike retail investors, institutions are less likely to pivot into ALTs (except for ETH, which benefits from its status as a leading crypto ETF). As a result, BTC Dominance could climb past 70% and may not see a sharp decline even when ALT coin momentum begins.
Bitcoin Dominance: Elliott Wave and Harmonics ComboBitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D) is giving a fantastic trading setup.
It's preparing a BIG Bullish Swing.
From an Elliott Wave point of view, a bullish Impulse Wave is about to start.
In this case I'm talking about Super-Cycle (C) (turquoise).
Moving on to Harmonic Patterns, there are two:
The smaller one is the Bullish Shark, which is preparing its completion.
The second one, and the bigger view, is the Cypher Pattern, which will commence one the Shark is done.
So, bottom line: BTC.D is gonna start flying, and will push the Crypto market into a fantastic Bull Cycle.
Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) Technical Analysis:
* Elliott Wave Impulse: Super-Cycle (C) (turquoise)
* Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Shark
* Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Cypher
* Double Bottom
* Bullish Divergence
* 88.6% Fibonacci Retracement
* 61.8% Fibonacci Extension
* Demand Zone
Conclusion: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is and always will be the one and only driver of the Crypto Markets.
Altseason Starts SoonThe Chart above show Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over time, with highlighted patterns and cycles that may be tied to Bitcoin halvings and market trends. Here’s my analysis based on the chart's structure:
Key Observations:
Repeated Patterns:
The chart highlights similar phases of Bitcoin dominance decline across three separate cycles, lasting roughly 231 days.
Each phase seems to correspond to a bearish period for Bitcoin dominance, where altcoins gain relative strength.
Halving Impact:
Vertical lines mark Bitcoin halving dates (green lines), which historically have a significant impact on the crypto market.
Following halvings, BTC dominance often rises as Bitcoin leads the market in initial rallies.
Projection:
The chart projects a decline in dominance after the current rally, extending into mid-to-late 2024.
A potential drop to ~44%-46% dominance is outlined, indicating a possible altcoin season or broader market rotation.
Support and Resistance:
The chart highlights a resistance zone around 62% dominance, which Bitcoin dominance seems to have tested recently.
A bearish breakout is suggested, aligning with a downward trend in the future.
Possible Interpretation:
Short-Term View: Bitcoin dominance might continue upward for a while but could face resistance near 60%-62%. If this area holds, a reversal could lead to dominance declining, benefiting altcoins.
Medium-Term View: If the projection holds, BTC dominance could see a prolonged decline lasting nearly a year, dropping below 50%. This scenario typically coincides with altcoin seasons where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in relative gains.
Risk Factors:Bitcoin dominance does not always drop due to bullish altcoins; it can also decline during a market-wide sell-off where Bitcoin loses less than altcoins. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates could alter the outcome.
BTC dominance and AltsznLet me preface everything with "NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE."
Right.
So, it’s been a crazy Uptober, hasn’t it?
When we thought CRYPTOCAP:BTC was going to continue its bear market trend from February 2024, the Trump trade happened.
Everyone was caught off guard—or maybe, like me, you were too.
So, I set out to find the next alphas. Presenting...
The Three Amigos: VeChain ( NYSE:VET ), Zilliqa ( GETTEX:ZIL ), and Helium ( FWB:HNT ).
Why these three? And why the 1986 comedy title?
Well, first...
VeChain ( NYSE:VET )
Targets and ROI if you bag them today..
Zilliqa ( GETTEX:ZIL )
Targets and ROI if you bag them today..
Helium ( FWB:HNT )
Targets and ROI if you bag them today..
(Side note: I love how TradingView has incorporated these subcharts into posts lately!)
In the 1986 comedy, a small Mexican village hired three out-of-work silent film actors to defend their community.
Initially, the trio thought they were performing a paid acting gig but soon realized the danger was real. Using humor, limited skills, and newfound courage, they rose to the occasion.
Similarly, today’s crypto markets have plenty of altcoins that have been underwater for ages—out of hype, out of demand, and far from a bull run.
It seemed Bitcoin’s dominance was going to climb even further, but then I spotted this resistance level. Digging through my list of coins from 2020, I found crypto’s Three Amigos.
Fundamentally, this trio has endured upheavals and enjoyed comebacks.
Technically, they’re either approaching or breaking their long-term down-sloping trendlines.
If I had to pick my top three to defend my portfolio against Bitcoin dominance, these would be my choices.
These are my Three Amigos. Perhaps you can share yours!
Alt Season closer than everAlt coins most likely will be having massive gains soon. There's Hidden bullish divergence on the monthly RSI with the Stoch crossing over bearish. Each percentage drop on btc.d will will push alts up a ton. When btc.d drops to around 40% is when you want to start scaling out of alts.
When ALT Coin season ? $BTC.D WEN MOON? Here's how to tellStep 1. Observation of rejection from key BTC.D levels 60.5% (Done)
Step 2. Wait for purple Down trendline (DTL) to pop
Step 3. Look for alts that have broken down from DTL (Weekly), LSE:ARB CRYPTOCAP:DOT NYSE:VET
You can find those set ups in my posts and profile
#BTC.D Analysis – Key Insight for AltcoinsBTC dominance (BTC.D) is approaching a critical resistance level, and this is where we often see shifts in the market. Based on my 7 years of experience, if BTC.D reaches resistance and starts showing weakness, we could see money flowing into altcoins. However, the key to altcoin rallies is their BTC pairs, and this should be taken very seriously.
Why BTC Pairs Matter for Altcoins:
Strength in BTC Pairs = Altcoin Momentum:
For altcoins to pump, they must show strength against Bitcoin in their BTC pairs. It’s not just about USD price—BTC pairs reflect true capital flow into altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
BTC.D at Resistance = Opportunity for Altcoins:
If BTC.D gets rejected at its main resistance, it creates a chance for altcoins to shine. But this will only happen if their BTC pairs confirm strength. Without strong BTC pairs, an "alt party" will struggle to materialize.
Conclusion:
Altcoin rallies don’t happen randomly. They require BTC pairs to be strong, and BTC.D to show signs of reversal from resistance. Right now, the market is waiting for BTC.D to hit its key resistance zone. Be patient, and closely monitor BTC pairs—they are the key driver for any significant altcoin pump.
"Bitcoin Dominance : Will Altcoins Take the Lead?Bitcoin Dominance Analysis on 4-Hour Chart (BTC.D)
using StochRSI, ADX, Keltner Bands, MACD:
Dominance is currently at 60.47% after pulling back from the recent high at 61.79%. The price has broken the upper Bollinguer band and is now in the median band, indicating a potential support zone. If it breaks to the lower band, it could signal a decrease in BTC dominance, favoring altcoins.
The ADX at 25 indicates that the recent downtrend is not as strong but still valid. If the ADX drops below 20, it could indicate a period of sideways consolidation or an imminent reversal. A crossover of the MACD lines soon could confirm a continuation of the decline or the beginning of a recovery.
If StochRSI remains oversold and ADX loses strength, BTC.D could drop to support at 58%, indicating further movement in altcoins.
Is Bitcoin Dominance Nearing A Cycle Top?Do you see those huge red lines? Those are the “tops” for Bitcoin Dominance in the 4 year cycles, which came right before a MAJOR alt season.
The first red line is December, 2016. The second red line is December, 2020.
I’m not great at math, but in a few weeks it will be December 2024… I believe that is 4 years after the last dominance top… again.
Maybe alts have a bit more pain to come before dominance finally tops, Ethereum included. We will see.
Patience.
Btc.dCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
🚨 Bitcoin Dominance Starts Dropping – Money Will Flow Into Altcoins 🚨
As Bitcoin dominance begins to decrease, it's a clear signal that the market is shifting. Historically, when Bitcoin’s market share declines, capital starts flowing into altcoins—offering traders and investors exciting opportunities for growth.
🔑 What does this mean?
Increased Altcoin Activity: Altcoins (such as Ethereum, Solana, and others) may experience significant price movement as investor attention shifts.
Possible Altcoin Season: With altcoins catching the spotlight, they could outperform Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains.
Diversification Opportunities: If you’re holding only Bitcoin, it might be time to consider diversifying into altcoins.
💡 Stay ahead of the market and watch for altcoin trends as they could offer substantial returns during this period. Be ready to take advantage of the opportunities that arise as money moves out of Bitcoin and into other projects!
Disclaimer : It's not Financial Advice