forecast for btcWith the breakout of the ascending trend line on the RSI, we expect the Bitcoin price to correct to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 (79800 $)
BTC trade ideas
Bitcoin to Gold Ratio: Long-Term Growth PotentialThis chart illustrates the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to gold's market capitalization. Currently, the total estimated supply of gold is around 208,000 metric tons. For this chart, I have used 210,000 metric tons as the basis, factoring in the potential growth in gold's supply over the coming years. This adjustment reflects a forward-looking perspective, as we are likely to be closer to that quantity by the time Bitcoin's market cap approaches that of gold. For reference, 210,000 metric tons is approximately equivalent to 6.7 billion ounces.
This chart reflects not just the potential trajectory of Bitcoin relative to gold but also the broader shift in how we perceive and store value in the modern world. As digital assets like Bitcoin gain traction and challenge traditional stores of value such as gold, this ratio becomes a symbol of a paradigm shift in global finance and technology. It's a testament to the inevitability of change and the power of innovation in shaping our economic future. This is where we are headed. Let us go home.
$MarketcapBTC thoughts Hola,
if you have not bought in already wait for the dippy on btc which will come and then long the dippy on the alts as it tags our lower range ..
84K
77K areas of interest when it does come
just fooling around and trying to make sense of what happens next IF we top out on btc mcap here abouts then .5 trilly to flow into alts while it ranges then we see if it was a distributive range or just another accumulation for higher
dominance loosing 60.3 would be a confirmation for this idea to play out
have a nice one !!
the battle is with yourself awesome compounding flush's will happen have a plan !
Bitcoin market cap!“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and then you win.” #Bitcoin
CRYPTOCAP:BTC market cap continues to melt all faces!
#BTC will move towards the top step by step!
The New Era | Bitcoin DominanceBitcoin dominance isn't what it used to be, as many investors wait for alt season. We can see the clear rotation from bitcoin into more risk on assets in the crypto market where we see a major drop in bitcoin dominance in 2021 representing the peak of the altcoin market. Now, with stablecoins and ETH gaining market share, investors have more options to seek safety from the volatility of the market.
Psychology of a Market CycleThis is not exactly a bitcoin analysis, but I wanted this market psychology for my channel, which I fully support.
By constantly performing different analyzes on well-known crypto-coins, it is a solid foundation.
It must be recognized that something similar has already happened in the history of bitcoin and is a perfect proof that it can be true.
Two Charts to Watch to Time the Crypto Cycle Top Here I have the TOTAL2 chart overlaying the BTC market cap chart.
- Black: BTC
- White: TOTAL2
- Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings
The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC.
At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls).
I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017.
There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire.
Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market.
An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases.
I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off.
My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
$btc is the financial revolution!#Bitcoin market cap will surpass many companies among the 10 most valuable companies in the world in the coming period.
Bitcoin Dominance is BrokenBitcoin dominance isn't what it used to be, as many investors wait for alt season. We can see the clear rotation from bitcoin into more risk on assets in the crypto market where we see a major drop in bitcoin dominance in 2021 representing the peak of the altcoin market. Now, with stablecoins and ETH gaining market share, investors have more options to seek safety from the volatility of the market.
$BTC MARKET CAPCRYPTOCAP:BTC #bitcoin will be among the top five largest companies in the world in the 2024-2025 bull run season
#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;
I suggest you read it to the end.
This type of chart is used to understand how much Bitcoin has gained or lost in value relative to the Narrow Money Supply in the US.
In the chart, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is plotted against the US Narrow Money Supply (M1). M1 includes money in circulation (cash) and demand deposits at banks. This type of ratio can help to understand how valuable Bitcoin is in the macroeconomic environment.
In a nutshell;
If the chart is rising : Bitcoin is rising.
If the chart is falling : The US money supply is increasing.
If the US money supply increases and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains the same, then the chart will fall again. It means that Bitcoin is losing value against the US dollar.
In short, we need to look more carefully at what is causing the decline.
When does the US Narrow Money Supply (M1) appreciate?
- Raising interest rates
- Economic empowerment
- Liquidity reduction
The first 2 points above are not hard to guess, but let's elaborate on point 3;
The FED may implement monetary tightening policies to reduce the amount of dollars in the market. In this case, the money supply may contract and the value of the dollar may rise. This is called illiquidity.
To summarize;
An appreciation of the US money supply often puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin and can depress their prices.
There are also important historical notes above the chart
The white trend line is important . Because every time it comes here, we see that it experiences strong price movements with important news.
Therefore, it may be necessary to follow the agenda closely when it comes to this trend line again.
Keep it simpleTo get a new bull run, it is necessary to overcome the previous local highs and hold the 50 & 200 day moving averages.
The first 200 days after the halving are very important to create the accumulation area before the bull run.
In addition, the Price Momentum Oscillator may signal a new trend above the 10-point level, as the last 3 halves did.
Bitcoin Bull FlagJust spotting the technical patterns.
Could retrace back to around 1T but I am confident that the dip would get bought just as fast.
This is what I am hoping for, and the flag pattern agrees with it.
There are longer term trends at work, a short-term downtrend still needs to be broken.
I am net long on MARA and BITO. I own no bitcoin, full disclosure.
Not financial advice.
I think BTC will continue up. But I think there is more money to be made through its derivatives now that it is traded in US equity markets.
Options on bitcoin based ETFs can give you leverage for big profits, and if you have real conviction that it's going up, and you want to have more of it, the best thing to do would be make dollars from leveraged products like BITO and then buy BTC with profits from it. Especially when bitcoin is dropping. Then you could short, or use options to profit from the decline of spot ETFs like BITO, and then take the profits and buy bitcoin.
That is what I am starting to do myself.
Bitcoins Road to 2T/100kThe next impulse wave will take Bitcoin all the way down into the 30k's. The economic landscape is much different compared to every other cycle, deleveraging etc.
Then at the end of 2026: big and slow push up into the 2 trilly mark.
bitcoin is setting up for a massive bull runbtc/spx is forming an huge monthly inverse H&S pattern. This monthly pattern could be the base for a massive bull run in. 2025. Don't be shaken out.
BTC against SPXdoesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?doesn't look good, lower high?doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
doesn't look good, lower high?
Biggest Bull Flag in Human History ?I believe considering MCAP this must be true
How long til new ath BTC? cant be much longer now.
Sentiment wise, its strangely quiet.. Quiet before the storm
CryptoCap - BTC - Bitcoin Idea IIhey guys,
the yearly chart is bullish - main target was the recent ATH at 1.3T.
Quarterly Chart: After the break of the 1.3T Line theres a close below it
-> leaving a bit of doubt about imminent bullish progression or a potential double top forming here. The Inside bar is giving a warning of a possible reversal.
Monthly Chart: Although the demand Line is still intact there is a little divergence on the stochastic
-> there is weakness of 3 months not being able to penetrate highs - but going into a Consolidation.
-> BTC is testing a bullish trendline which, ones it has been broken by a close of the monthly candle, could provide a bearish setup and a possible double top scenario being in place.
I will wait for a break of the Consolidation to think about entering a trade.
Thanks for reading…
BTCContinuing from my previous post
I still see numerous scenarios below the peak
Bearish possibilities outweigh the positive ones.
Nevertheless, there's a failure zone if the summit isn't breached, as seen.
As a trader, leave emotions aside.
I still hold 50% of my portfolio in the market.
The chart below, a similar pattern in the past.
BTC VS M2 Total Valuation at alltime high supportanother way to look at the macro picture
BTC claiming an all time high ratio of monetary supply
I wonder if anyone else pays attention to this? idk worked for the bottom
Where is Bitcoin going?Last cycle BTC worked well with the FIBs respecting the top in the end almost to the point and would in hind sight have been a good place to sell everything.
This time round Bitcoin seems to be respecting the fibs even better and at certain points stopping for an accumulation phase before the next leg up.
If it carries on like this then the next leg would take us to around 85k/95k which would also be a perfect place for more accumulation before we break 100k and media/proper retail FOMO into the market.
It will be very interesting to see how the media and other events are playing out around this time.
Bitcoin Marketcap v Federal reserve M1A nod to @unbeldi
And a updated chart
Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money
As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again
and was invented to be peer to peer cash
It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar.
And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King.
Since BTC is natively digital and global
(M2 is slightly larger number and the more commonly used metric @ 20.86 Trillion)
The number of coins I used for the 100k & 400k price projections
was 19,791,006
If you wanted to check my maths
This is the current and supply and the estimate of number of coins in 10 months time.
SELL BTC TO MAKE A *100000% Accumulation: This phase occurs when investors start buying into or accumulating a stock, commodity, or asset, often quietly and over a period when prices are relatively low and stable. In the context of ICT, this could refer to companies or individuals acquiring technology assets, intellectual properties, or even startups.
Manipulation: This can sometimes occur in markets where certain participants have enough power or influence to temporarily control the price movements to their advantage, often to accumulate more at lower prices or prepare for selling at higher prices. In ICT, manipulation might relate to altering information flow or access in a way that benefits certain stakeholders disproportionately (e.g., controlling network access or data flow to benefit specific services or products).
Distribution: After accumulation, the distribution phase is where the accumulated stocks or assets are sold off to the public or other investors at higher prices. In ICT, this could involve the rollout or scaling of technology solutions and platforms after their initial development and acquisition phase.
In trading and investment, these terms form part of a cycle that analysts and traders observe to predict price movements and make decisions. Applying these concepts to ICT could involve understanding how products, services, or innovations move from development to widespread adoption, how market power is exercised, and how these dynamics affect competition and market health.
If you are looking into how these phases apply specifically within ICT sectors like software, hardware, or telecommunications, it involves looking at investment trends, regulatory impacts, market entry strategies, and competitive dynamics. If you need more detailed analysis or a specific industry example, feel free to ask!
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