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BTC trade ideas

Bitcoin Distribution PhaseThe safety trade appears to be unraveling, with Bitcoin showing clear signs of topping out as it moves through a distribution phase. Chart analysis supports this, and the narrative among Bitcoiners has shifted following President Trump’s emphasis on supporting all digital assets and U.S. companies, rather than positioning BTC as a strategic reserve. This marks a pivotal shift in market sentiment. Many had hoped for Bitcoin to play a central role, but the focus on a broader digital asset ecosystem has left some investors disappointed. While this may take time to fully digest, I believe this narrative, combined with technical indicators flashing bearish signals, sets the stage for a rotation out of BTC and into altcoins. Altcoin momentum could gain further traction as investors seek opportunities in projects aligned with a more diversified digital future. As we continue monitoring price action, this could be the catalyst the market has been building toward.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCShort
by Flow-Trade
A Hopefullly Less Deluded ForecastJudging by how the market has been moving, if buyers aren't showing up soon the price is likely going to be pushed into the 1D ichi cloud where we could see a quick drop from current levels to 86 once shorts start looking safer. Maybe some suppression again if the price tries to break into 91-93 in an attempt to push even lower and maybe wick into 80-82k where the cloud stops. If market stays bullish like its been it could be ATH again from there, although if sentiment shifts considerably by the time it reaches 86-88, I'm sure plenty of big newcomers who want it cheaper are aware there just is not much of any support or price discovery between 86 and 77. If the large cap alts do another big massive dump when BTC breaks below 91, it might be good to watch carefully at 86k before jumping on a big long. Very speculatively thinking, if 91k keeps holding up my best guess is we will see sideways for a much longer time... maybe a week or more. Something perhaps like a shallow cup that bottoms around 89k and then breakout only after 100k or so.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by sadture
BTC MARKET CAP SHORT PRESPECTIVE Observations: 1. Head and Shoulders Pattern: - There seems to be a potential "Head and Shoulders" pattern forming near the top of the recent trend, which is often considered a bearish reversal signal. 2. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): - Two Fair Value Gaps are marked on the chart as potential zones where the price may gravitate toward. - The upper FVG is closer to the $1.68T market cap level. - The lower FVG is around $1.4T–$1.5T. 3. Volume: - Volume has been declining slightly as the market cap approaches the top, which might suggest waning buying pressure. 4. RSI Divergence: - The RSI indicator at the bottom shows a potential bearish divergence where price makes higher highs, but RSI fails to do so. This is another sign of a possible upcoming correction. 5. Support and Moving Averages: - Price is currently above the major moving averages, but a correction could lead it back toward the lower FVG or moving averages for support. 6. Trendlines: - A breakout from the wedge or channel earlier in the year led to the strong bullish rally. Now, a consolidation and potential reversal pattern is forming. Analysis: - The current chart suggests a possibility of a pullback or correction in the near term if the head-and-shoulders pattern confirms. - The first target for this correction could be the upper FVG at $1.68T, with further downside potential to $1.4T–$1.5T (lower FVG). - If the market fails to hold support at these levels, it may signal a more significant bearish trend. Key Levels to Watch: 1. Support Zones: - $1.68T (upper FVG). - $1.4T–$1.5T (lower FVG). 2. Resistance: - If the market cap manages to invalidate the head-and-shoulders pattern, a breakout above $2T could lead to new highs. Conclusion: Monitor the key support levels and the confirmation of the head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakdown below the neckline would signal a stronger bearish move. However, if support holds, it could resume its bullish trend.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCShort
by roimizrahi44
250k Btc (with facts) Bitcoin growth across three Halving CyclesFirst Halving: Market cap at halving: 146 million Market cap during run-up: $18.75 billion Run-up: 20 billion (approx.) Second Halving: Market cap at halving: $9.375 billion Market cap during run-up: $300 billion Run-up: $290.625 billion (approx., 15 times larger than the first halving) Third Halving (hypothetical): Market cap at halving: 150 billion Possible market cap scenarios during run-up: a. $1.2 trillion (already achieved) b. $2.4 trillion (potential) c. $4.8 trillion (potential) Run-up (applying the 15x increase pattern): $4.35 trillion approx. Hope you learned something :) Follow for more
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by MichaelBsul
9
Bitcoin to Gold Ratio: Long-Term Growth PotentialThis chart illustrates the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to gold's market capitalization. Currently, the total estimated supply of gold is around 208,000 metric tons. For this chart, I have used 210,000 metric tons as the basis, factoring in the potential growth in gold's supply over the coming years. This adjustment reflects a forward-looking perspective, as we are likely to be closer to that quantity by the time Bitcoin's market cap approaches that of gold. For reference, 210,000 metric tons is approximately equivalent to 6.7 billion ounces. This chart reflects not just the potential trajectory of Bitcoin relative to gold but also the broader shift in how we perceive and store value in the modern world. As digital assets like Bitcoin gain traction and challenge traditional stores of value such as gold, this ratio becomes a symbol of a paradigm shift in global finance and technology. It's a testament to the inevitability of change and the power of innovation in shaping our economic future. This is where we are headed. Let us go home.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by ApoHD
$MarketcapBTC thoughts Hola, if you have not bought in already wait for the dippy on btc which will come and then long the dippy on the alts as it tags our lower range .. 84K 77K areas of interest when it does come just fooling around and trying to make sense of what happens next IF we top out on btc mcap here abouts then .5 trilly to flow into alts while it ranges then we see if it was a distributive range or just another accumulation for higher dominance loosing 60.3 would be a confirmation for this idea to play out have a nice one !! the battle is with yourself awesome compounding flush's will happen have a plan !
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by CompoundingGain
Two Charts to Watch to Time the Crypto Cycle Top Here I have the TOTAL2 chart overlaying the BTC market cap chart. - Black: BTC - White: TOTAL2 - Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC. At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls). I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017. There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire. Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market. An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases. I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off. My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by bhx10
3
#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart; I suggest you read it to the end. This type of chart is used to understand how much Bitcoin has gained or lost in value relative to the Narrow Money Supply in the US. In the chart, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is plotted against the US Narrow Money Supply (M1). M1 includes money in circulation (cash) and demand deposits at banks. This type of ratio can help to understand how valuable Bitcoin is in the macroeconomic environment. In a nutshell; If the chart is rising : Bitcoin is rising. If the chart is falling : The US money supply is increasing. If the US money supply increases and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains the same, then the chart will fall again. It means that Bitcoin is losing value against the US dollar. In short, we need to look more carefully at what is causing the decline. When does the US Narrow Money Supply (M1) appreciate? - Raising interest rates - Economic empowerment - Liquidity reduction The first 2 points above are not hard to guess, but let's elaborate on point 3; The FED may implement monetary tightening policies to reduce the amount of dollars in the market. In this case, the money supply may contract and the value of the dollar may rise. This is called illiquidity. To summarize; An appreciation of the US money supply often puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin and can depress their prices. There are also important historical notes above the chart The white trend line is important . Because every time it comes here, we see that it experiences strong price movements with important news. Therefore, it may be necessary to follow the agenda closely when it comes to this trend line again.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by ugurtash
Bitcoin Bull FlagJust spotting the technical patterns. Could retrace back to around 1T but I am confident that the dip would get bought just as fast. This is what I am hoping for, and the flag pattern agrees with it. There are longer term trends at work, a short-term downtrend still needs to be broken. I am net long on MARA and BITO. I own no bitcoin, full disclosure. Not financial advice. I think BTC will continue up. But I think there is more money to be made through its derivatives now that it is traded in US equity markets. Options on bitcoin based ETFs can give you leverage for big profits, and if you have real conviction that it's going up, and you want to have more of it, the best thing to do would be make dollars from leveraged products like BITO and then buy BTC with profits from it. Especially when bitcoin is dropping. Then you could short, or use options to profit from the decline of spot ETFs like BITO, and then take the profits and buy bitcoin. That is what I am starting to do myself.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by BestCentimeter