BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas
BITCOIN LONG SETUP BTC LONG SETUP
ENTRY : 101008.3
PROFIT : 104993.5
STOP : 100082.8
ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level.
hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
Disclaimer
BTCUSDT: The ‘Parabolic Channel’ Play – $250 K to $500 K … then?⚙️ Chart Specs
Ticker / Pair: BTCUSDT
Time-Frame: 1W (log scale)
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud (default), 7-year logarithmic channel, long-term trend-lines & Fib extensions
Date of publish: 17 May 2025
1️⃣ Macro Context
Bitcoin just printed a decisive weekly close above the mid-line of its 2017-2025 log channel while the Ichimoku Cloud has flipped full-bull (span A > span B). Post-2024 halving supply shock + macro liquidity rotation = strong tail-wind.
2️⃣ Projected Path
Phase Target zone % from breakout Key confluence
Break & sprint $255-270 K ~+140 % Vacuum above former ATH; minimal supply
Euphoria stretch $375 K ~+250 % Channel ceiling + 2.0 Fib
Blow-off wick $500-520 K ~+380 % 2.618 Fib extension + typical overshoot
Dashed white arrows on the chart sketch the base-case impulse and an optional “melt-up” extension.
3️⃣ Post-parabola Retrace
Historical cycles point to a -50 ~ -60 % draw-down once the upper red rail is tagged. I’m watching:
$255-250 K → first liquidity pocket / mid-channel
$215-210 K → 0.5 Fib retrace of the entire move
Either zone could reset weekly momentum while preserving the uptrend.
4️⃣ Invalidation Levels
Weekly close < $92 K → breakout failure → bias flips neutral, potential slide to red mid-line ~$75 K.
Close below channel base $60 K → macro thesis void, shift to bear bias.
5️⃣ Illustrative Trade Plan (not financial advice)
Leg Entry TP(s) Stop
Impulse swing Weekly close > $120 K $255 K / $375 K Weekly close < $92 K
Blow-off punt Break > $375 K on volume Trail toward $500 K 2-week trailing low
Retrace reload Bullish SFP at $255-210 K Ride next cycle Close < $200 K
📝 Take-aways
Base target sits in the $250 K region; exuberant extension eyes $500 K.
Expect aggressive mean reversion once the upper rail is hit.
Clear invalidations help keep emotions in check amid extreme volatility.
⚠️ This is an educational study,
BTCUSDT 4H | Rebound, Consolidation, Down or Up?Hello Everyone,
Greetings,
BTCUSDT 4H |
As we can see together, BTCUSDT is experiencing a rebound in the WEEKLY trendline resistance area & WEEKLY FVG.
If we observe further, we can also see the 200 Moving Average (MA) at the $84,000 area, and there’s also a Triple Bottom marked with a red circle.
So it can be assumed that the BTCUSDT market is likely to consolidate further while waiting for a strong Volume/Candle to either GO UP (target $99,000) or GO DOWN (target $73,800).
Remember, trading involves high risk, so please do your own research.
Bitcoin BTC price analysis - READ the text !There was some positive news: "The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days."
The price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered the zone of total sales - $105-110 thousand.
🕯 Metrics show that large wallets are now opening short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and on the other hand, no less large wallets that organized this rebound in the OKX:BTCUSDT price are very tempted to launch the final stage of cascading liquidations of shorts.
🍿 So, stock up on popcorn - it's going to be "fun" today/tomorrow, and then we'll go to the stronger side!)
Globally, before the growth wave begins, we want to see the final "shake-up" of the longs who have survived everything and still held their positions and didn't give up.
1️⃣ Weak correction in the range of $90-91k - to close the GAP that formed on this rebound and then continue to confidently update ATH with a clear conscience.
2️⃣ A strong correction to the range of $80-82k - during which it will be very interesting to watch the capital flow and dominance.
Which scenario is closer to your heart? Write in the comments!
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BTC - New Short-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong demand and structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC retests the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC/USDT: 2Potential Long Scenarios Within the Ascending ChannelHello guys!
There are two scenarios here:
Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation (Aggressive Long Entry)
Entry Zone: Around the current price (~$103,000–$104,000)
Reasoning: Price has bounced from the lower boundary of the channel and is now pushing higher with strong momentum. An aggressive long position can be considered with expectations that BTC will continue climbing toward the upper resistance line of the channel.
Target Zone: $110,000–$114,000 (marked in the yellow box)
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support (Conservative Long Entry)
Entry Zone: Between $96,000–$99,715
Reasoning: If BTC faces rejection near current levels or the midline of the channel, a healthy correction could bring the price back to a key demand zone, aligning with the lower trendline and horizontal support levels.
Target Zone: Same upper boundary of the channel ($110,000–$114,000)
BTC/USDT–Sideways Market Analysis with Bearish Setup, Week-4Pair: BTC/USDT
Market Condition: Consolidation / Sideways
Strategy: Sell Stop Below Support Break
Entry (Sell Stop): At Support 2 (S2)
Stop Loss (SL): Above Support 1 (S1)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): As Drawn on chart
Take Profit 2 (TP2): As Drawn on chart
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1 and 1:2
Trade Type: Bearish Momentum Breakout
🔍 Market Outlook:
BTC/USDT is currently trading within a sideways range, forming a clear support structure. The market has tested the lower boundary multiple times, indicating potential for breakdown.
We’re preparing a Sell Stop trade below S2 to catch the move if price breaks the range to the downside.
✅ Trade Setup Breakdown:
Entry (Sell Stop): At S2 – confirming downside breakout
Stop Loss: Above S1 – invalidation if price bounces back into the range
📌 Summary:
We’re not jumping in prematurely. The sell stop triggers only below S2, ensuring we enter with momentum confirmation. SL is tight above S1 to limit risk. Two-part TP ensures we lock in early profit and ride the rest if breakdown extends.
🛑 Always manage your risk. Watch for BTC-related catalysts like ETF updates, regulation news, or macro shifts that could spike volatility.
🔗 Hashtags:
#BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #CryptoSetup #BearishBreakout #SidewaysMarket #TradingPlan #CryptoSignals #RiskManagement #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakdownTrade #SmartEntry #PriceAction #CryptoCommunity #CryptoTrading
BTC - Short term playsAnalysis of today's BTC trend:
• Daily timeframe: Closed with a small bearish candle yesterday, showing a single bearish-bullish pattern. The price is consolidating at high levels, failing to sustain the breakout after news-driven highs, indicating a short-term range-bound oscillation.
• Hourly chart: The resistance at the high of 107,000 area (double top resistance), and the support at the low of 102,000 area (double bottom support), with an obvious range-bound pattern.
Short-term contract trading strategy:
1. Short position: Short at 105,800, stop loss at 106,300, target at 104,500.
2. Long position: Long at 104,500, stop loss at 104,000, target at 106,000.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
BTC TRADE IDEAS FOR LONG AND SHORT.BTC is ranging between here and there for now and manipulating shorts and longs. Currently its in a range where I have no interest for long or short. I have marked red area for potential short and green area for potential long where is FVG and ssl+trendline liquidty as well.
19/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $105,46
Last weeks low: $100,751.75
Midpoint: $103,372.10
In my weekly outlook post from last week I mentioned how there was a clear pattern of consolidation with a tight range for a week with a week of expansion that followed, and that if the pattern were to continue we would see BTC consolidate around the weekly high. The theory was proven correct on this occasion with a tight range between weekly high and the 0.75 line, as theorized with only momentary dips below the 0.75 line. Now if the pattern were to continue this week would be expansion week, but for me this time it's slightly different as BTC approaches ATH there is a massive level of resistance just above this weeks weekly high. We've seen an initial early attempt to breakout above weekly high and that attempt has so far failed quite aggressively, which leads me to believe there will be volatility this week as both bulls and bears contest this very important area of the chart.
For the bulls maintaining momentum and breaking into price discovery with acceptance above $109,000 would be incredibly, the headlines will read new ATH, FOMO kicks in and retail follows etc, we know the drill. For the bears the objective is to hold the line and reject weekly high ($106,000) at all costs and print a strong SFP and unfortunately this does seem viable with $97,000 being the target area IMO. RSI on the daily is around the overbought level, combined with key resistance level a pullback would make sense.
For me this week I want to see how ETH and other major alts react to any pullback, do they get bought up with purpose? Is the structure strong to maintain this move or is this a HTF lower high? An interesting week coming up I'm sure.
Good luck this week!
BTC Bull Flag Failure or UTAD? Apex Retest UnderwayBitcoin’s breakout from the bull flag was swiftly rejected after a wick above 105.8K, suggesting absorption and supply at the highs. Price has now fallen back into the flag apex — a red flag for continuation bulls.
Key Observations:
• Breakout was absorbed and rejected with no follow-through.
• Current price action is compressing inside the apex again.
• RSI dropped to 60.22 with weakening volume momentum.
• Support from mid-Bollinger Band (100.7K) and 55 SMA (100.5K) is now critical.
If price closes below this 100.5K–100.7K cluster with rising volume, the bull flag will be invalidated. This could evolve into a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) if the rejection confirms as a trap above resistance.
Watching for:
• Breakdown from structure (close below 100.5K)
• Rising sell volume
• RSI trending below 50
A close below these levels may mark the transition from re-accumulation to distribution.
⸻
BTCUSDT – Weekly Breakout Setup Targeting $115K–$125K | BullishDescription:
Bitcoin is showing a clear continuation pattern on both the daily and weekly timeframes, supported by strong trend structure and healthy consolidation. After breaking out of a long-range accumulation zone (60K–72K), BTC has maintained its position above critical levels and is now forming a bullish flag/pennant just below a major resistance band (~106K).
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
Higher highs and higher lows structure in both D1 and W1.
Current consolidation resembles a bullish pennant, often a continuation pattern after parabolic moves.
Price holding well above the midline of the ascending channel and major MAs (50/100/200 EMA) on daily.
Weekly candle bodies are closing higher with strong wicks rejecting downside, showing buying strength.
RSI is climbing again (D1 ~69, W1 ~64) – still below overbought, leaving more room to run.
MACD has bullish crossover and momentum histogram is green.
ADX above 23 and increasing, indicating strong trend potential.
📌 Support & Resistance:
Immediate Resistance: 106,000 (Previous Weekly High - PWH)
Major Breakout Level: 110,000 (Horizontal + Fib Confluence + Weekly structure)
Support: 100,000 psychological + dynamic trendline + demand zone
Strong Base: 96,000–98,000 (must hold for bullish bias to remain)
🎯 Trade Setup (Swing Long Idea):
Entry (Breakout): Above 106,000
Targets:
TP1: 110,000
TP2: 115,000
TP3: 124,000 (channel top / measured move target)
Stop Loss: Below 98,500 (or tighter under structure at 100,000 depending on risk appetite)
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-15 18:00 UTCBTC/USDT Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot)
Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Key Levels
Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor)
Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone)
Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point)
Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation)
Technical Rationale
MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery.
ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves.
Volume & Structure
Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move).
Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest.
Macro Context
Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum.
Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC.
Risk Advisory (Compliance Division)
False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume.
Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities.
Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility.
Actionable Insight
Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence)
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer)
Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms.
Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
Bitcoin (BTC): 2 Selloffs During Asian Session | Wait For EntryWe had another sell-off event during the Asian session, showing the demand in downward correctional movement. Despite us looking for entry to sell, we are not rushing in yet; we are waiting for the all-time high (ATH) to be retested before entering into a few short positions.
So we wait, and if we see further weakness (early drop), we will be re-looking into markets for proper MSB entry withhter stop-loss.
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