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BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) - Weekly Outlook, 3 scenarios.🔹 Current Price: 84,070 🔹 Key Levels: 🟢 Support: 78,189 (Fib 0.65), 72,138 (Fib 0.618) 🔴 Resistance: 97,418 (Fib 0.886), 109,609 (Fib 1.0) 🔮 Possible Scenarios: 📉 Scenario 1: Deeper Pullback Before Rally 🚀 BTC drops to the golden pocket (Fib 0.618-0.65 at 72k-78k). Bulls step in, creating a higher low. If confirmed, BTC pushes back to 98k and eventually towards 1.618 Fib at 175k. 🔹 Odds: 60/40 📈 Scenario 2: Immediate Rebound and Breakout 💥 BTC holds current support (~84k) and bounces. Breaks through 97k resistance, confirming strength. Push towards 109k, then 134k. 🔹 Odds: 40/60 (lower probability due to weak momentum signals). ⚠️ Scenario 3: Bearish Case: Break Below 72k If BTC loses 72k, we could see 56k (Fib 0.5) tested. Would invalidate bullish structure short-term. 🔹 Odds: 30/70 🎯 Key Watch Points: 1️⃣ Reaction at 78-72k: If buyers step in aggressively, scenario 1 is more likely. 2️⃣ Strength above 97k: If BTC reclaims this level, bulls take control. 3️⃣ Macro environment: External factors (ETF flows, Fed policy) could accelerate or delay moves. 🚀 Long-term structure remains bullish, but in short-term shakeouts are very likely.
by Expate
2
Mastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate GuideMastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate Guide In the world of trading, success isn’t measured only by big wins but by how well you protect your capital from unnecessary losses. Risk management isn’t just a safety net—it’s the backbone of sustainable trading. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the principles and strategies you need to safeguard your account while still maximizing your profit potential. --- 1. Risk-Reward Ratio: The Foundation of Every Trade - What it is: The risk-reward ratio is the cornerstone of every trade. It tells you how much potential reward you’re targeting compared to the risk you’re willing to take. For instance, if you risk $100 and aim to make $200, your risk-reward ratio is 1:2—a commonly accepted standard in trading. - How to use it: - Always predefine your risk-reward ratio before entering a trade. - For swing traders, aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3 to justify holding overnight. --- 2. Position Sizing: The Key to Survival - Why position sizing matters: Position sizing ensures you don’t over-leverage your account or lose too much in a single trade. Many traders fail because they bet too big and get wiped out after just a few losing trades. - How to calculate position size: - Use this formula: Position Size = (Account Risk $ ÷ (Entry Price - Stop-Loss Price)). - For example, if you’re risking $100 per trade and the difference between your entry and stop-loss is $5, your position size should be 20 units (100 ÷ 5). --- 3. Stop-Loss Orders: Your Safety Net - What is a stop-loss? A stop-loss is your emergency brake. It’s an order you set in advance to sell your position if the price moves against you by a specified amount. - How to set stop-losses: - Use technical analysis to place your stop-loss below support levels for long trades or above resistance levels for short trades. - Avoid placing stop-losses too close to your entry point, as small fluctuations might trigger them unnecessarily. Here you can see my ratio is on the low side so i can place a tactical TP and SL in relation to liquidity lines. --- 4. The Art of Diversification: Spreading Risk - Why diversification works: Putting all your capital into a single trade or instrument increases your risk. Diversification spreads that risk across multiple trades or markets, reducing the impact of any single loss. - How to diversify effectively: - Trade across multiple sectors or currency pairs. - Avoid overexposure to correlated assets (e.g., don’t trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD simultaneously). --- 5. Emotional Discipline: Winning the Mental Game - Why it matters: Even the best trading strategy can fail if emotions like fear or greed take over. Emotional trading leads to impulsive decisions, revenge trading, and overtrading. - How to maintain discipline: - Stick to your trading plan, no matter what. - Use tools like meditation, journaling, or physical exercise to manage stress. --- 6. Dynamic Risk Management: Adapting to Changing Markets - Adjusting your strategy: Markets are dynamic, and your risk management should adapt. Volatility can change quickly, requiring you to adjust your stop-loss distance or position size. - Use ATR (Average True Range): The ATR is a great tool to measure market volatility and decide how much room to give your stop-loss. --- 7. Tracking and Reviewing Your Trades - The power of a trading journal: Every trade is a learning opportunity. Keep detailed records of your trades, including your reasoning, execution, and results. - What to include in your journal: - Entry and exit points. - Risk-reward ratio. - Mistakes or deviations from the plan. - Lessons learned. --- Conclusion: Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan Risk management isn’t just a skill—it’s a habit. By understanding your risk-reward ratio, managing position sizes, using stop-losses effectively, and staying emotionally disciplined, you can protect your capital and increase your chances of long-term success. Take a moment to reflect: How do you manage risk in your trading? Are there areas you could improve? Start implementing these strategies today, and watch how they transform your trading results.
Education
by Louigi_24
29
U.S. Econ Shocks: Bitcoin & Profit SignalsThe latest U.S. economic data has brought significant impacts. The core PCE inflation witnessed a 0.4% month - on - month increase, hitting the highest growth in a year, with a year - on - year rise of 2.8%, exceeding market anticipations. Meanwhile, the long - term inflation expectation from the University of Michigan has soared to a 32 - year high, intensifying market concerns about inflation's resurgence. Currently, the market remains enveloped in macro - risks, pending a softening of market sentiment. Turning to the Bitcoin market, as depicted in today's price trend (the current BTCUSDT price is $82,338.01, dropping by $2,086.37, a 2.47% decline), the K - line chart analysis indicates a downward trend. The Williams indicator signals an oversold condition. Additionally, trading volume has contracted recently, with both price and volume decreasing, suggesting a sluggish and inactive market. Nevertheless, if Bitcoin can stabilize above $82,000 and there are signs of capital reflux, gradual position - building may be considered, with a target price set above $90,000. Investors must recognize that the Bitcoin market brims with uncertainties. Variables such as forthcoming U.S. economic data, regulatory policies, and geopolitical scenarios will all sway Bitcoin prices. In this volatile financial landscape, meticulous analysis and judicious decision - making are of utmost importance for investors navigating the Bitcoin market. BTCUSDT buy@82000-83000 tp:84500-86500 I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Long
by JohnGonzalez7
2
BTC/USDT Analysis: Buyers Have LostContrary to expectations and the defense of the local low, buying pressure failed to resume fully, leading to a decline. Currently, we are approaching the buyer's zone at $84,400-$82,900 (accumulated volumes)—monitoring the reaction at this level is crucial. From a wave analysis perspective, the local uptrend has been broken, and short positions are now the priority. A sell zone has formed above the current price at $86,000-$87,200, where we anticipate a continuation of the downward movement. Another short entry point would be a false breakout of the local high at $88,800. Sell Zones: $86,000-$87,200 (absorption of buyer's market aggression) $95,000-$96,700 (accumulated volumes) $97,500-$98,400 (pushing volumes) $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies) Buy Zones: $84,400-$82,900 (accumulated volumes) $77,000-$73,000 (volume anomalies, pushing volumes)
by Crypto_robotics
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #45👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let's dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. In this analysis, as usual, I want to review the futures session triggers for the New York market. ⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, the price is still within a ranging box between 86,401 and 88,480. 🔍 The price is making lower highs, and it seems that the bullish momentum has faded. However, valid triggers for both short and long positions can still be found. ✨ For a short position, you can enter if the price breaks below 86,401. In this case, the price could extend its corrective leg down to 84,734. 🔽 For a long position, you can enter if the price breaks above 88,480. This is a very important trigger and could start the next bullish leg up to 91,588. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Let's move on to Bitcoin dominance. This dominance has formed a bit more structure, and its triggers are also close. ⚡️ If 61.63 breaks, we confirm a bearish trend, and if 61.81 breaks, we confirm a bullish trend. 📅 Total2 Analysis Let's analyze Total2. This index also has a ranging box between 1.06 and 1.08, which can provide good trading opportunities. 💫 If 1.08 breaks, we confirm a long position for altcoins. For a short position, a break of 1.06 is suitable. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Now, let’s analyze USDT dominance. As you can see, we are witnessing a downtrend, and now a box has formed between 5.19 and 5.05. 🧩 To confirm a bullish move in dominance, we need a break above 5.19. The bearish triggers for USDT dominance are 5.11 and 5.05. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
4
BTCUSDT 4H SUPP & RESISFrom the BTC/USDT chart (4H, Binance), here is the analysis of the strongest and closest support & resistance levels: 1. Nearest & Strongest Resistance: • The zone around $87,500 - $88,000 (marked with the red area above the current price). • This is a supply (resistance) area that has previously been a price reversal point. • If the price breaks through this area with high volume, BTC is likely to continue its upward trend. 2. Nearest & Strongest Support: • Nearest support: Around $85,000 • The price might experience a pullback to this area before continuing the rise. • Strong support: Around $76,677 (the yellow zone at the bottom of the chart). • This is a demand (strong support) area, where the price previously experienced significant bounces. • If BTC drops to this area, there’s a high chance of a rebound. BTC Movement Prediction: • If BTC breaks through the $87,500 - $88,000 resistance, it is likely to rise towards $90,000 - $92,500. • If BTC fails to break through the resistance and faces rejection, the price might return to $85,000 or even drop further to $82,500 - $80,000. • If BTC drops below $80,000, it is likely to test the strong support at $76,677. Currently, BTC is still in an uptrend with an upward channel pattern (marked with blue lines), but confirmation is needed to determine whether it will break out upwards or reverse downwards. Remember do your own research
by RCT8
BTC - Lots of options going into the new week!In this BTCUSDT 4-hour chart analysis on Bybit, we see price action reaching a crucial decision point. Key Fibonacci retracement levels, a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and the Golden Pocket zone indicate potential movements ahead. Will BTC break down, retrace to fill the imbalance, or rally toward the golden pocket? Let’s analyze the key levels. Key Observations: 🔹 Golden Pocket Resistance: The highlighted yellow zone marks the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement of the greater downtrend, a well-known high-probability reversal area. If BTC reaches this level, we could see strong resistance. 🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG): The blue zone represents an unfilled imbalance left behind during the recent downward move. If BTC retraces, it could fill this gap before deciding on the next direction. 🔹 0.618 - 0.65 Fib Support: The price is currently hovering near a local golden pocket support area. A strong reaction here could trigger a bullish move. However, failure to hold this level could send BTC lower. Potential Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Breakout: BTC bounces from the current level, fills the FVG, and continues upward to test the golden pocket resistance. A breakout above this zone could confirm a bullish trend shift. 2️⃣ Short-Term FVG Fill & Rejection: BTC moves up to fill the FVG but faces selling pressure, leading to another bearish move before a larger decision point. 3️⃣ Bearish Breakdown: BTC fails to hold the local support and breaks downward, continuing the broader downtrend toward lower liquidity zones. What’s Your Prediction? Which scenario do you think is most likely—1️⃣ Bullish Breakout, 2️⃣ FVG Fill & Rejection, or 3️⃣ Bearish Breakdown? Comment below and let’s discuss! 🚀📉📊
by Louigi_24
45
BTC Potential Spot Buy $76kAgain: breaking down without a valid reason: this time you can speak of a mini-MSB but if it was a relevant one price shouldn't have consolidated at the highs that long. This makes the breakdown now weak. Also: price falling down against previous structure without having some breakdown PA at the highs makes the breakdown even weaker (previous structure 'washes' the strength out the breakdown. If price would fall straight down to the 76k lowest low I think this is a spot buy at the lowest low. No trade as there isn't a valid SL. --------------------- The question now is: do you buy with a larger % of the allocated capital or not? I think, if price would go straight down, so without creating new structure during the breakdown, larger % is a valid option. But if there would be structure created, 1/3 or 1/2 is better. Why? New structure creates resistance for price going back up from the lows. If price would get above structure, the likelyhood of price going further up is higher so you would want to buy more, and if this new structure is created close to the lowest low you don't miss out much on the new buys. To make this more clear: let's say price would fall straight down without creating structure like it's doing now, the last structure there is would then be the current structure with the top of this structure being 88k. If you would want to wait for more 'validation' of price showing strength, you would then have to wait for price to close above 88k, missing out on 88k-76k= 12k. ------------------------ But yeah, a 100% buy is a bit stupid, too gambly. Think 1/2 is better and then wait for some time spend (1D close above level) above level and then buy the other 1/2 with hopefully not much of a price gap. Because: what if price just breaks straight through the level? I have my reasons for it being unlikely but who am I to say it can't happen? There is a reason I've said I don't buy levels blindly: so far it has never worked out! So maybe even buying 1/3 is better... Yes: 1/3 max. There's no need to act tough by going all in to prove your conviction.
by EyyJasper
BTC Update 04/02/2025Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a sharp and aggressive drop below the $78,000 level, filling the CME gap in that region before making a swift recovery. This liquidity grab triggered a strong bounce, pushing the price back above $80,000 in a rapid reversal. Currently, BTC is trading around the $85,000 level, aligning with the 200-day EMA on both the daily and intraday charts. This key moving average often acts as a dynamic support and resistance zone, influencing price action significantly. The $86,000 level now serves as a crucial resistance point, and a retest is likely. If BTC fails to break above this level convincingly, a retracement could follow as short-term traders take profits and liquidity gets tested once again. However, if BTC manages to break and hold above $86,000, the next key resistance zones to watch are in the $88,000–$90,000 range. These levels will likely see increased selling pressure as BTC approaches new all-time highs. In the short term, we may see a period of consolidation or a minor pullback before another attempt to push higher. A successful breakout above $90,000 could open the door for further price discovery, while failure to hold key support levels could lead to another retracement towards the $82,000–$80,000 range.
by SilentTraders
2
BTC ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 2025 BTC ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 2025 BTCUSDT chart: M, W, D1 cycle So, BTC has closed its March candle, ushering in an April candle full of intrigue but not surprises. This is because BTC has already confirmed its movements for the next 1-2 months, at least until June, before resuming its upward trend. This means BTC will continue to move sideways with a downward correction—yes, a correction downward. February: High: $102,700 Low: $78,700 March: High: $95,000 Low: $76,800 April (Projected): High: $90,000 to $92,000 Low: $68,000 to $72,000 This implies that BTC will continue to form a new low on smaller timeframes, lower than the bottom established in March. The new bottom will likely be around $68k, possibly slightly higher or lower. During the formation of the April candle, there will be moments when you see the price adjust upward to the low $90k range. However, this doesn’t mean BTC is starting a new uptrend. These are ideal zones for you to look for short opportunities. From the perspective of the monthly (M) timeframe, if you’re following the trend, wait for strong short signals from the low $90k range. Observe the upward moves on smaller timeframes and wait for the SHORT entry point rather than going LONG. This is about following the monthly trend (M). If you prefer trading smaller timeframes, feel free to long or short as you see fit. When the monthly (M) timeframe enters April with these projected highs and lows, the daily (D1) and weekly (W) timeframes will align accordingly. You’ll notice that the weekly (W) is still in the process of forming its bottom, with no clear signal yet confirming that the decline has stopped or that the bottom structure is complete. BTC’s current price is $82,700, still over $14,000 away from the projected low for next month. The nearest roadmap suggests that BTC’s D1 cycle will adjust upward to the low $90k range, peaking there. This process will be supported by the weekly timeframe. After pushing the price to the $90k- GETTEX:92K zone, BTC will hit a peak, followed by a strong, decisive short signal unified across D1, W, and M timeframes. The price will then drop to the $68k zone, where D1 will form its bottom, and W will also establish its bottom. From there, BTC will begin to move sideways, gradually inching upward while awaiting the monthly candle close to confirm and kick off its next upward wave. Goodluck.
Long
by rainbow_sniper
15-Min Bitcoin Setup – Quick Scalping Opportunity?First of all, I must say that this is a short-term analysis in a 15-minute time frame . Please be careful . Let's take risks while respecting capital management. Be sure to respect capital management. Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently trading in the support zone($84,120_$81,500) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) near the lower line of the ascending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin could complete its 5 bearish waves near the lower line of the ascending channel . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect Bitcoin to be able to rise to at least $85,400. Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,397_$85,760 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $84,262_$83,336 Note: One of the reasons for Bitcoin's decline is the decline in US indices such as CME_MINI:NQ1! , SP:SPX , and TVC:DJI . Note: If Bitcoin falls below $83,000, we can expect more dumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
30
More down for BitcoinHi traders, Last week I've said in my outlook for Bitcoin that it could be making a leading diagonal (wave 1) or we could see another move down (ending diagonal blue wave c). Price could not stay above the higher bearish Daily FVG, dropped and made another bearish Daily FVG. So now we could see a small pullback up into the Daily FVG and after that more downside. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction up and a change in orderflow to bearish again to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
Next Volatility Period: Around April 5 (April 4-6) Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1M chart) A new candle has been created as a new month begins. The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024. As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows. Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone. The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86. - (1D chart) If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed. If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th. If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again. In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone. You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises. In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond. As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing. This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan. This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart. I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto