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BTC 2-4 Short / Tether

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BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas

Market Overview WHAT HAPPENED? Last week, we had a true breakdown of the local maximum for bitcoin. We considered the probability of this scenario developing in our daily analysis on TradingView. The buyer resumed control over the delta, although we had previously noted strong sell pressure within the $98,000–$93,000 range several times, which could trigger a deep correction. WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT? Now the price has reached the target of $105,000, the priority remains for the longs. If BTC gains a foothold above this mark, the volume zone of $104,000–$103,000 may become a key support zone. Sell Zones: $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies). Buy Zones: $104,000–$103,000 (high-volume area), ~$100,000 (absorbing/breakthrough volume), $98,000–$97,200 (local support), $93,000 level, $91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance), $88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling), $85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume), $82,700–$81,400 (volume zone), $74,800 level, $69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume). IMPORTANT DATES Macroeconomic events to watch out for: • Tuesday, May 13, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic US consumer price index for April, as well as in comparison with April 2024; • Wednesday, May 14, 06:00 (UTC) — German Consumer Price Index for April is published; • Thursday, May 15, 06:00 (UTC) — publication of UK GDP for March, for the first quarter of 2025, as well as in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2024; • Thursday, May 15, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic US retail sales index for April, the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the US producer price index, the volume of retail sales in the USA for April and May; • Thursday, May 15, 12:40 (UTC) — Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell; • Thursday, May 15, 23:50 (UTC) — Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 is published. *This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience. #analytics
by Crypto_robotics
CYCLE 4 | Pull back complete!Hi team, The purpose of this post is to close out our thoughts posted back in December 2024 with the suggestion of a possible 30-40% correction scenario we envisioned BTC might look to complete over the upcoming months, and what we wanted to see the bulls achieve in order for Cycle 4 to move into its final phase. Using this set up we can look towards where BTC may look towards from here. These steps were outlined in the below two posts: CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back (Dec 20 - 2024) CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell Zone (Feb 14 - 2025) REVIEWING WHAT HAPPENED In these posts we suggested 1) BTC will likely pull back and look for opportunities for support 2) We outlined the following levels * Demand Zone and bottom of our defined Price Channel (92-90K) * Daily Order Block (OB) (88.5-87.9k) * CME GAP - down as far as ~77K and suggested a wick on the weekly down to our March 2024 high would not be out of the question These levels all were taken out with our worst-case forecast achieved. Bulls then successfully preceded to complete the requirements we set out in these posts: 1) Uptrend Channel: No Open / Close weekly candle outside of, push back within and HOLD as support / HOLD and remain inside of our cycle uptrend channel (keep BTCs relationship with this trend line intact). 2) Daily OB: Flip and hold as support (BTC first attempt was rejected, held as resistance and allow a more bullish double bottom to be formed). 3) 20W SMA / 21W EMA: Flip and hold these moving averages 4) Price Channel: Push back inside and hold with a least two weekly candle closes. WHERE TO FROM HERE We are now at this point where BTC is now poised to look at a new ATH. BULLs are looking for BTC to finish off this cycle, and the set up aligns perfectly with our 'Sell Zone' box time frame we have put in place to help us navigate this cycle. Our 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' (see charts in below posts for updates) has swung back into our RL level of 7 and moving back towards out cycle peak risk levels. To achieve a 'proper' finishing ATH bulls are looking for in this zone we would want to see BTC start to making aggressive moves from here in Q3 & Q4 of 2025. The biggest concerns for BULLs and the upcoming case for bears is the weekly bearish divergences BTC has put in place with our prior ATHs this cycle. This is most notable in the RSI shown in this posts original chart. From here there are 3 likely scenarios BTC could take based on rejects of our RSI dark black tend line and in place weekly bearish divergences. These Scenarios are marked 1, 2 and 3. Scenario 1 BTC moves aggressively out of this price channel to new ATHs. There is a chance Bears could push price into a lower high here or put in a 'SFP' (Swing Failure Pattern) and sweep our prior high. Scenario 1a This would play out scenario 1a which bulls would want to see a retest and hold of the 20W SMA / 21W EMA before heading back up to attack high levels. We would expect our RSI moving Advertage to provide support in this level (see point 1a in the RSI chart). Failure to hold would strongly support the suggestion of cycle 5s bear market beginning IMO. Scenario 2 A HOLD and bounce off the 20W SMA / 21W EMA again would give bears another chance to put bearish divergence with the weekly RSI. Watch for a higher high in price (likely a SFP or sweep of our current ATH) and a lower high closed in our Weekly RSI. This would be a scary scenario for the bulls. BULLISH SCENARIO | BREAKING THE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE DOWN TREND LINE The most bullish move BTC Bulls could achieve in all the above scenarios is to breaking above the RSI Bearish Divergence Down Trend Line (shown as green up trend arrows in the RSI). This will invalidate current bearish divergences and sent bulls focus on the more speculative upper targets for this cycle. Hope you have found this post series an interesting watch as I have.
Long
by Brodie
BTC at a Crossroads: Bull Trap or Moon Mission?A possible bearish scenario is playing out on BTC, but hey—just one of many possibilities before the real bloodbath begins. 👀 This could just be a classic trap to lure people in before shaking them out. The key resistance zone is between GETTEX:97K and $101K, a big range to clear. If we flip it and close above $102K on the weekly, that would be amazing—but let’s be real, we’ll need a strong catalyst for that. If we do, then we’re likely talking about the $120K range. On the flip side, if we drop lower from here, the most obvious support sits at $72K. Below that… well, let’s just say we don’t wanna go there—next real support isn’t until $50K. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope we don’t see those levels. Big decision point ahead—let’s see who wins this battle! ⚔️🚀
by crypto_chebz
BTCUSD - $100K FINALLY!! WHAT NEXT?MARKET UPDATE We've finally seen BTC @$100k after the long wait. So what's next on BTC Price Action? My next Target is $110,000 which was the highest point it got to before the drop. With the current momentum i don't think it'll make a deep retracement before getting that price target. MARKET PROFILE I want to see a displacement to the upside earlier in the week(before CPI), with Tuesday's CPI forming the HOW(High of Week) after taking the High @$110k. I'll only be participating on the bullish run to $110k and once my DOL has been met i'll be neutral on BTC and sit on the sideline. FINAL NOTICE Patience pays, i'll wait for price to get to my level before executing(if it hasn't traded to my DOL). If price leaves me behind and makes the run to $110k i won't chase price. What do you think BTC is likely to do next? Share your opinions in the comment guys.
Long
by SyHub
BTC/USDT at a Major Inflection Point – Breakout or Bull Trap?Bitcoin has been on an impressive run lately, reclaiming levels above 100K and showing strong bullish structure across higher timeframes. But now it’s approaching a major resistance zone near 104K–105K, and the price action is starting to look like it’s at a crossroads. What the Charts Are Telling Us: 🔹 Daily Timeframe: BTC is currently hugging the top of a long-standing ascending channel. It’s testing a key supply zone, where we’ve seen previous sell-offs. There’s been a clear bullish breakout structure (Choch → BoS), but the rally is losing steam here. RSI is hovering in the 75+ range – signaling overbought territory. Volume is not following through strongly on this latest move, which could mean bulls are running low on fuel. 🔹 4H View: A rising wedge has formed near resistance – usually a sign of slowing momentum and possible reversal. Price is consolidating just below the 104K mark, forming lower highs. A clean break above this with strong volume could trigger a bullish continuation, but if we break below 102K, we might be in for a pullback. Below us, the 97K–98K range is packed with demand and could offer strong support if we dip. 🔹 30-Minute Zoom-In: Very tight range forming between ~102.8K and ~104.2K – classic squeeze. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are showing early signs of bearish divergence. If bulls can’t push through soon, we might see a short-term breakdown before any bigger move resumes. Trade Ideas: Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout: Entry: Above 104.5K with strong volume Targets: 108K → 114K Stop Loss: Below 102K Scenario 2 – Bearish Rejection: Entry: Rejection around 104K–105K Targets: 98K → 92K Stop Loss: Above 105.5K 📝 Final Thoughts: BTC is at a do-or-die level right now. Either we break cleanly above this resistance and see continuation, or this becomes a classic fakeout followed by a correction. No need to rush in – let the chart give you confirmation. The structure is still bullish on higher timeframes, but short-term traders should be cautious here.
by MyTradingJournal6th
BTC/USDT Weekly Analysis – Bullish Momentum🌝☄️ Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined ascending green channel that started in early 2023. After a healthy consolidation near the midline of the channel, the price broke out of a wedge pattern, confirming renewed bullish momentum. As long as BTC remains inside this channel and above key support levels, the trend remains bullish. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the upcoming targets are: $130,000 (1.618 extension) $171,000 (2.618 extension) $226,000 (3.618 extension) If Bitcoin breaks above the previous all-time high of $109,588, we could see a strong rally toward the $130K–$170K zone by Fall 2025. Bearish scenario: A confirmed breakdown below the midline and $95K support could lead to a deeper correction.
Long
by sajjadsoraya1364