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BTCDOWNUSDT trade ideas

BTCUSDT 15-Minute Analysis | Potential Rejection & Drop to 82KIn this BTCUSDT analysis, I am expecting a short-term bullish move into the highlighted supply zone around $88,200 - $89,000, followed by a strong rejection leading to a downward move toward $85,300 and potentially $82,000. Entry Zone: Near $88,200 - $89,000 Stop Loss: Above $90,015 Target 1: $85,300 Target 2: $82,000 The price structure suggests a liquidity grab before a potential bearish leg. If BTC fails to hold the $85,300 support, a deeper drop toward $82,000 is likely. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀📉
Short
by ayushpanchal92
3
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 3👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. In the previous session, we explained Principles 3 and 4 of the Dow Theory. Be sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, let us know in the comments. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 📈 Principle 5: Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Signal Appears Full Explanation: Dow Theory says that once a market picks a direction—like going up (bullish trend) or down (bearish trend)—it keeps moving that way until something big and obvious says, “Nope, we’re turning around!” Think of it like momentum: the market’s lazy and sticks to its path unless it gets a solid reason to switch. What’s a Trend? It’s the market’s overall direction. Uptrend means higher highs and higher lows (prices keep climbing). Downtrend means lower highs and lower lows (prices keep dropping). Sideways means it’s stuck in a range. What’s a Reversal Signal? In an uptrend, if prices stop making new highs and start forming lower highs and lows, plus break a key level (like support), that’s a sign the trend’s flipping. In a downtrend, it’s the opposite—higher highs and lows plus breaking resistance mean it’s turning up. Why Does This Happen? Markets reflect crowd behavior. When everyone’s buying or selling, the trend builds steam and doesn’t stop until the crowd’s mood shifts big-time. Key Point: Small dips or spikes don’t count. A little drop in an uptrend? Normal. You need a clear pattern or a big break to call it a reversal. Practical Use: Traders use this to avoid panic-selling on tiny moves and wait for strong signals before jumping ship. Simple Example: It’s like riding a bike downhill—you keep rolling fast until you hit a wall or slam the brakes. 📊 Principle 6: Trends Must Be Confirmed by Volume Full Explanation: This principle says a trend isn’t legit unless trading volume backs it up. Volume is how much is being bought or sold. If the trend’s real, volume should match it—high volume means lots of people are in on it, low volume means it might be fake or weak. Uptrend: Prices rising with growing volume? That’s a strong bull run—buyers are all in. Prices up but volume’s tiny? Could be a fluke or manipulation. Downtrend: Prices falling with big volume? Sellers mean business—bear trend’s solid. Falling prices with low volume? Might just be a quick dip, not a real crash. How Volume Confirms: It’s like a lie detector for trends. Big volume says, “This move’s for real!” Low volume says, “Eh, don’t trust it yet.” Extra Detail: In an uptrend, if volume starts dropping, it’s a warning—buyers might be losing steam. In a downtrend, low volume could mean sellers are running out of ammo, hinting at a bounce. Why It Matters? Dow believed volume shows the market’s true energy. No crowd, no power—simple as that. Practical Use: Traders check tools like OBV (On-Balance Volume) or volume bars. If a stock jumps but volume’s dead, they might skip it it’s a trap. Simple Example: It’s like a party if tons of people show up dancing, it’s a real vibe. If just two guys are there, it’s probably lame. 🎉 Conclusion We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey! 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
3
Bears in Control – Is This the Start of a Major Market Crash?The BTC chart shows a clear break in market structure where the bullish trend was invalidated after failing to maintain higher highs. The red zone represents a key support level that previously held price multiple times, showing strong buying interest. However, once this level was decisively broken to the downside, the market structure shifted bearish, confirming that sellers are in control. When price returned to this zone, it retested the broken support and rejected sharply, flipping the area into a resistance zone. This rejection further validated the bearish sentiment and set the stage for a continuation to the downside. Order Flow and Liquidity Grab The current price action suggests that the market is targeting liquidity pools resting below the previous lows. The black line on the chart marks a key swing low, where liquidity is likely building up from stop-loss orders of retail traders. The market tends to gravitate towards these liquidity zones before reversing or continuing its trend. The sharp rejection from the resistance level signals that the market is still heavily bearish and hunting for sell-side liquidity. Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Retracement Zone The green zone highlights a fair value gap (FVG) – an imbalance in price action where the market moved rapidly without leaving sufficient trading activity. These gaps often act as magnets, drawing price back to fill the imbalance before continuing in the original direction. A retracement into this zone would not only fill the imbalance but also allow the market to mitigate unfilled orders left behind by institutions. This would create an ideal area for short re-entries before the next leg lower. Fundamental Influence Despite the recent bullish news event, which temporarily pushed the price higher, the impact lasted only a few hours. This indicates that the news failed to shift the overall market sentiment, and the bears quickly regained control. The market's reaction highlights the underlying weakness in bullish momentum. Additionally, the recent tariff announcements by Donald Trump have created a more bearish macroeconomic environment, adding extra selling pressure. Increased tariffs could negatively impact global market sentiment, which aligns with the technical bearish outlook. Trade Plan and Confirmation The most likely scenario would be a retracement into the FVG zone (green area), followed by bearish price action confirmation (such as a bearish engulfing candle or lower timeframe structure break). Key confirmation points: Price taps into the green zone without breaking above it. Bearish candle patterns or lower timeframe structure shifts. Volume increase during rejection. Target Areas The primary target for this trade setup would be the liquidity pool resting below the black line. This level represents a clear liquidity grab zone, where the market could look to sweep lows before any potential reversal. Invalidation Level The trade idea would be invalidated if price breaks above the red resistance zone with strong momentum, signaling a possible shift back to bullish market structure. Conclusion This trade setup combines technical analysis with fundamental factors, creating a confluence-based bearish outlook. The rejection from the resistance zone, the presence of an FVG imbalance, and the overall bearish macro sentiment support the continuation of the downtrend. Waiting for price to fill the imbalance before entering could provide a high-probability entry for a short position targeting the liquidity grab at the lows. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Short
by TehThomas
21
Next Volatility Period: Starting around March 15 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can receive support and rise near the 2nd section. If not, it is expected to eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and determine the trend again. As a result, I think it is highly likely that it will meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart near 73499.86. - (BTCUSD 1W chart) This is the second time that the StochRSI indicator has been maintained at the lowest point (0). This means that the decline is strong. In the case of 2014, it formed a bottom section about 15 weeks after that. We will also have to watch to see if the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is generated due to this decline. - (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The key is whether it can be supported near the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.414 (79902.66) ~ 2 (80999.68) and rise above 84349.94. If not, I think it is highly likely that the trend will be determined again when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart near 73499.86. The next volatility period is expected to start around March 15 (March 14-16) and continue around March 25 (March 24-26). The point of interest is whether it can break out of the downward channel after this volatility period. - Following USDT, USDC is also renewing its ATH. I think this is a sign that a lot of money is flowing into the coin market. Therefore, even if the current coin market falls, if USDT and USDC maintain their gap upward trend, the coin market is expected to recover quickly. Accordingly, we need to think about ways to increase the number of coins (tokens) currently held. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to this. If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
3
BITCOIN Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?Now that Bitcoin is returning to the cup-and-handle support, one can expect a strong pump up to 130k . it might happen. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
Btcusdt technical analysis.This is a Bitcoin (BTC) price chart from TradingView, showing BTC/USDT on Binance with a 1-hour timeframe. The chart is dated March 12, 2025, at 19:36 UTC. Chart Details: Current Price: $82,828.20 Price Change: -104.79 (-0.13%) Trendline: A blue ascending trendline is drawn, indicating an upward trend. Prediction: The chart includes a blue projection suggesting a possible price movement. The price may bounce off the trendline before continuing upward toward $86,000. This analysis suggests a bullish outlook if the price respects the trendline. Would you like a deeper breakdown?
Long
by Rickypher
2
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 2👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. 📚 Recap of the Previous Session In the previous session, we explained the first two principles of Dow Theory. Make sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 🌟 Principle 3: Trends Have Three Phases In Dow Theory, the primary trend (which can be a Bull Market or Bear Market) is divided into three distinct phases. These phases reflect market behavior and investor psychology over time. Here’s a detailed explanation: 📉 Accumulation Phase Definition: This phase begins when the market is at its lowest point (in a bull trend after a bear market) or when general pessimism prevails. Smart investors, professionals, and those with a long-term vision (like large funds or experienced traders) start buying. Characteristics: Prices are still low, and economic news is typically negative (e.g., recession, high unemployment). Trading volume is low because the general public lacks confidence and doesn’t participate. Price changes are small and gradual, making the market seem "lifeless" or directionless. Psychology: This phase marks a transition from despair to hope. Smart investors recognize that the worst is over and that the real value of assets exceeds their current price. Example: Imagine after a major crash like 2008, some big companies stabilize their prices, but the media still talks about "collapse." Professionals step in here. Or with Bitcoin at $16K, most people thought it was heading to zero and were hopeless! 📈 Public Participation Phase Definition: This phase occurs when the primary trend is clearly established, and the market starts moving more strongly. Economic news improves, and the general public (retail investors) enters the market. Characteristics: Prices rise quickly (in a bull market) or fall sharply (in a bear market). Trading volume increases significantly as participation grows. Analysts and media begin confirming the trend with positive reports. Psychology: Confidence in the market grows, and greed (in a bull market) or fear (in a bear market) gradually takes over. This is where market momentum accelerates. Example: In a bull market, you might see indices like the Dow Jones hitting new records weekly, with ordinary people buying tech or industrial stocks. 💰 Distribution Phase Definition: This is the end of the primary trend. In a bull market, smart investors who bought during accumulation start selling to take profits. In a bear market, panic selling subsides, and some buy in hopes of a recovery. Characteristics: Prices may still be high, but volatility increases, and signs of weakness emerge. Trading volume might remain high, but discrepancies between volume and price (e.g., price drops with high volume) appear. News is still positive, but professionals know the market is overvalued. Psychology: In a bull market, excessive optimism (Euphoria) dominates; in a bear market, complete despair sets in. This is where the trend reverses. Example: At the peak of the dot-com bubble (2000), tech stocks kept rising, but professionals began exiting, and then the crash followed. Key Note: These three phases occur in sequence, and understanding them helps analysts identify the market’s position in the larger cycle. In a bear market, the phases reverse: panic selling (like distribution), temporary recovery (like participation), and final capitulation (like accumulation). 🔍 Principle 4: The Averages Must Confirm Each Other Charles Dow believed that for a primary trend to be confirmed, two key market indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)—must move in the same direction. This principle stems from economic and logical significance in Dow’s time and is still considered a key metric. Here’s the full explanation: 📊 Economic Logic: Industry and Transportation: In Dow’s era (late 19th and early 20th centuries), the U.S. economy relied heavily on industrial production and transportation (e.g., railroads). If industrial companies (producers of goods) were growing, demand for transportation (moving goods) should also rise. Thus, aligned movement in these indices signaled a healthy economy. Mutual Confirmation: If only one average rises (e.g., industrials go up but transportation doesn’t), Dow saw it as a sign of weakness or an unsustainable trend. 🤑 Practical Application: Bullish Trend: In a bull market, both averages should reach new highs (Higher Highs). If the DJIA hits a new record but the DJTA fails to confirm and stays lower, the uptrend is questionable. Bearish Trend: In a bear market, both should hit new lows (Lower Lows). Lack of confirmation (e.g., industrials fall but transportation doesn’t) might signal the end of the downtrend. Divergence: If the averages diverge (one rises while the other doesn’t), Dow viewed it as a warning of a potential trend change. ⚖️ Technical Details: Timing: Confirmation doesn’t need to be simultaneous but should occur within a reasonable timeframe (e.g., weeks or months). Volume: Though not directly mentioned in this principle, handbooks emphasize that high volume during confirmation adds credibility to the trend. Classic Example: In 1929, the industrial average began falling, but transportation initially resisted. When transportation also dropped, the bearish trend was confirmed, leading to the Great Depression. 🎉 Conclusion We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey! 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
5
Bitcoin & Trump Effect: A Short-Term Pump or Sustainable Rally?Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) started to rise as I expected in the previous post , but Donald Trump helped double the momentum of Bitcoin yesterday. But the question here is whether the correction of Bitcoin is over or if this is an increase in the chance of exit. Bitcoin is trying to break the Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) . According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in completing wave 4 and we should wait for wave 5 . Note : Due to the high momentum of wave 3, it is possible that wave 5 is a truncated wave. I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $95,000 in the coming hours. The next target of Bitcoin can be Resistance lines and 100_SMA(Daily) . What do you think about Bitcoin movement? Time to escape or wait for a new All-Time High(ATH) to be created? Note: If Bitcoin goes below $89,000, we can expect Bitcoin to decline and the big CME Gap($91,610-$84,830) to be filled. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. B e sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
23
#Bitcoin Reversal Signals Emerging. Get Ready🚀 **Bitcoin Reversal Signals Emerging!** 🚀 As I mentioned in my last analysis, the recent move on Bitcoin was just a **deep retracement** after a massive gain. This theory remains valid **as long as the price stays above the Yellow Line (Arrow #2)**. If Bitcoin breaks below this level, we still have **key support zones at 74K (Arrow #3 and Arrow #4)** where a reversal could happen. If those levels fail, we could enter a **huge range** or even a potential **downtrend**. However, as of today, I see early **reversal signals**, but we still need confirmation. The main signal to watch is a **breakout above the Blue Line (Arrow #1)**. 🔥 **Tomorrow, I’ll be monitoring the market with a bullish mindset and providing more updates in the group.** Stay tuned, and make sure to **turn on your notifications!** 📢 **Join my group now for exclusive insights!** #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #BTC #Trading #Crypto
Long
by MoonTradingForecast
2
A terrible drop loomingAs of March 11, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $81,776. Analyst Projections: -RLinda's Analysis: TradingView analyst RLinda forecasts that if Bitcoin breaches the $82,000 support level, it could experience a significant decline toward the $73,000 mark. -EGRAG's Perspective: Another analyst, EGRAG, suggests that Bitcoin might dip to $73,000 before initiating its next major upward movement. Technical Patterns: -Bearish Engulfing Candle: On the three-day chart, Bitcoin is forming a bearish engulfing candle pattern, indicating potential increased selling pressure and a possible short-term reversal. Support Levels: -Immediate Support: $80,500 -Major Support:$73,000 Conclusion: Given the current market conditions and technical indicators, a drop to $73,000 is plausible. Traders should exercise caution and implement appropriate risk management strategies to navigate potential market volatility.
Short
by CASRICH
3
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #28👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! Let's dive into Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indices. As usual, I’ll review the futures session triggers for New York. ✨ Market conditions haven’t changed at all compared to yesterday, and Bitcoin has a ranging box that might break today. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe As you can see, in the 1-hour timeframe, after breaking the trendline, the 85552 trigger is crucial. If this level is broken, it confirms the trendline break, which means the price could move toward lower support levels. ✅ Currently, the price has broken this area, and the RSI trigger has also been activated. If you opened a position with this break, I recommend waiting to see from which area the price gets rejected. 🔽 For a short position today, there isn’t really any specific trigger, so if you don’t have a position, you should observe for now. However, if the 85552 break turns out to be fake, bullish momentum could enter the market. In that case, you can enter a position with a break of 86949. ⚡️ I don’t have any other moves for Bitcoin because the short trigger is already activated, and today is Sunday, so there’s no need to focus too much on altcoins. Let’s move on to dominance analysis to assess altcoins' conditions. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Looking at Bitcoin dominance, you can see that it is still ranging and hasn’t started any particular trend yet. 🧲 If 61.61 breaks, it confirms bullish dominance, while a break of 61.08 would confirm bearish dominance. The main range is between 60.40 and 62.19. 📅 Total2 Analysis Checking Total2, just like Bitcoin, this index has also activated its entry trigger and is moving downward. 🎲 Currently, after breaking the 1.07 area, the next support level is at 1.01, and the probability of reaching this level is high. If this downward move turns out to be fake, the 1.09 trigger would be suitable for a long position. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Looking at Tether dominance, you can see that after yesterday’s pullback to 5.08, the 5.14 trigger has been activated, and dominance is moving upward. 💫 The issue I mentioned yesterday was that there was no momentum, but now bullish momentum is visible. The target it can move towards is the 5.30 area. 📊 If the 5.14 break turns out to be fake, the 5.08 trigger would be suitable for confirming the fake break. 🧩 Overall, there aren’t any significant triggers in the charts today. If you didn’t open a position during the London session and want to have one, you should look for altcoins that haven’t activated their triggers yet. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
1
Bitcoin (BTC): 2 Zones To Keep Eye On: $75K and Bullish CMEBitcoin still shows signs of NOTHING! Too many question marks are currently on the 4-hour timeframe, as we are right in the middle of either a push to a bullish CME or a proper touch to $75K. Now both of those zones should be touched, so whichever is touched first, based on that, we will make our next move. If we fill a bullish CME, we go short, and if we touch the $75K support, we will be looking for some kind of long there. Meanwhile, our major target still remains the same, want it or not—we will reach it (we are 99% sure). Swallow Team
Short
by SwallowAcademy
1
BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry and short entry. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!" 🏁Buy entry above 93000 🏁Sell Entry below 84000 📌However, I recommended to place buy stop for bullish side and sell stop for bearish side. Stop Loss 🛑: 🚩Thief SL placed at 88000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bullish Trade 🚩Thief SL placed at 92000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bearish Trade Using the 4H period, the recent / swing low or high level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 🏴‍☠️Bullish Robbers TP 11000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🏴‍☠️Bearish Robbers TP 68000 (or) Escape Before the Target 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, On Chain Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future Prediction: BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto market is currently experiencing a Neutral Trend (slightly Bearish🐼),., driven by several key factors. 1. Fundamental Analysis⭐⚡🌟 Fundamental analysis evaluates Bitcoin’s intrinsic drivers: Adoption Trends: Institutional inflows via Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, with $1.5 billion added in Q1 2025. MicroStrategy holds 300,000 BTC, reinforcing corporate adoption—bullish. Regulatory Environment: The U.S. signals a pro-crypto stance with talks of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, boosting confidence—bullish. However, global regulatory uncertainty (e.g., EU tax proposals) adds mild bearish pressure. Halving Impact: Post-2024 halving (April), supply issuance dropped to 450 BTC/day. Historical patterns suggest price appreciation 12-18 months later, supporting a bullish outlook for 2025. Network Usage: Transaction volume is up 10% year-over-year, driven by Layer 2 solutions (e.g., Lightning Network)—bullish for utility and value. Inflation Hedge Narrative: With U.S. inflation at 3.0%, Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value grows—bullish, though tempered by short-term risk-off sentiment. Detailed Explanation: Fundamentals are strongly bullish long-term due to adoption, supply scarcity, and macro trends. Short-term bearish pressures from regulatory uncertainty and profit-taking explain the current dip to 87,000. 2. Macroeconomic Factors⭐⚡🌟 Macroeconomic conditions influencing BTC/USD: U.S. Economy: Fed rates at 3.0% with no immediate cuts signal tighter conditions—bearish short-term as capital favors yield-bearing assets. Unemployment steady at 4.2% supports economic stability—neutral. Global Growth: China’s GDP growth slows to 4.2%, reducing demand for risk assets like Bitcoin—bearish. Eurozone PMI at 47.8 indicates contraction, pressuring global markets—bearish. Currency Markets: USD strength (DXY at 106) weighs on BTC/USD, as a stronger dollar reduces Bitcoin’s appeal—bearish short-term. Commodity Prices: Oil at $68/bbl and gold at $2,950 reflect a mixed risk environment—neutral for Bitcoin. Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions elevate safe-haven demand, but Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is weakening—neutral to mildly bearish. Detailed Explanation: Macro factors tilt bearish short-term due to USD strength and global slowdown, countering Bitcoin’s long-term bullish fundamentals. This tension explains the current downward trend from higher levels. 3. Commitments of Traders (COT) Data⭐⚡🌟 COT data reflects futures positioning: Speculative Traders: Net long positions at 15,000 contracts, down from 25,000 at the 95,000 peak. Reduced bullishness suggests caution—bearish signal. Commercial Hedgers: Net short at 20,000 contracts, stable. Hedgers locking in gains indicate no panic—neutral. Open Interest: 45,000 contracts, down 10% from February highs. Declining participation hints at fading momentum—bearish. Detailed Explanation: COT data supports a bearish short-term view. Speculators unwinding longs and falling open interest align with the downward trend, though hedgers’ stability prevents a sharper collapse. 4. On-Chain Analysis⭐⚡🌟 On-chain metrics provide insights into Bitcoin’s network activity: Exchange Balances: 2.6 million BTC on exchanges, up 5% in March. Rising supply suggests selling pressure—bearish. Transaction Volume: Daily volume at $10 billion, flat month-over-month. Lack of growth signals reduced buying interest—neutral to bearish. HODLing Behavior: 70% of BTC unmoved for over a year (13.8 million coins). Strong holder conviction limits downside—bullish long-term. Miner Activity: Miners hold 1.8 million BTC, with minimal outflows. Stable miner behavior supports price floors—mildly bullish. Realized Price Levels: Realized cap indicates a cost basis of 78,000 for recent buyers, acting as support—bullish if held. Detailed Explanation: On-chain data is mixed. Short-term bearish signals from exchange inflows contrast with long-term bullishness from HODLing and miner stability, suggesting a correction rather than a collapse. 5. Intermarket Analysis⭐⚡🌟 Correlations with other markets: USD Strength: DXY at 106 pressures BTC/USD inversely—bearish short-term. S&P 500: At 5,900, down 2% this week, reflecting risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin’s 0.6 correlation with equities adds downward pressure—bearish. Gold: At $2,950, gold rises as a safe haven, decoupling from Bitcoin—neutral to bearish. Bond Yields: U.S. 10-year yields at 3.8% attract capital away from risk assets—bearish. Altcoins: ETH/BTC ratio at 0.035, with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin, reinforcing BTC’s relative strength—mildly bullish. Detailed Explanation: Intermarket signals are bearish short-term due to USD strength, equity declines, and yield competition. Bitcoin’s resilience versus altcoins offers some support, but broader risk-off trends dominate. 6. Market Sentiment Analysis⭐⚡🌟 Investor and trader mood: Retail Sentiment: Social media analysis shows 45% bullish sentiment, down from 60% at 95,000. Fear of further drops prevails—bearish. Analyst Views: Consensus targets range from 80,000 (short-term support) to 100,000 (Q3 2025), reflecting uncertainty—mixed. Options Market: Call/put ratio at 0.9, with balanced positioning. No strong directional bias—neutral. Fear & Greed Index: At 40 (neutral), down from 70 (greed) in February, indicating cooling enthusiasm—bearish shift. Detailed Explanation: Sentiment has turned bearish short-term as retail investors react to the decline from 95,000. Analysts’ mixed views and neutral options activity suggest a wait-and-see approach, aligning with the current trend. 7. Next Trend Move and Future Trend Prediction⭐⚡🌟 Price projections across timeframes: Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Range: 84,000 - 88,500 Likely to test support at 86,000-84,000 if selling persists; a bounce to 88,500 possible on relief rally. Catalysts: U.S. economic data (e.g., CPI on March 12), ETF flows. Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range: 80,000 - 92,000 Below 84,000 targets 80,000 (realized price support); above 88,500 aims for 92,000 if risk appetite returns. Catalysts: BOJ policy update, institutional buying. Long-Term (6-12 Months): Bullish Target: 100,000 - 110,000 Driven by halving cycle, adoption, and inflation hedging—65% probability. Bearish Target: 70,000 - 75,000 Triggered by global recession or regulatory crackdown—35% probability. Catalysts: U.S. strategic reserve decision, Q3 GDP data. Detailed Explanation: Short-term downside to 84,000 aligns with current bearish momentum. Medium-term consolidation reflects macro uncertainty, while long-term upside to 100,000+ hinges on fundamentals prevailing over temporary setbacks. 8. Overall Summary Outlook⭐⚡🌟 BTC/USD at 87,000 is in a short-term bearish correction within a broader bullish cycle. Fundamentals (adoption, halving) and on-chain HODLing support long-term gains, but macro headwinds (USD strength, global slowdown), COT unwinding, and risk-off sentiment drive the current downward trend. Exchange inflows and declining sentiment reinforce near-term weakness, with support at 84,000-80,000 likely to hold. Medium-term recovery to 92,000 and long-term growth to 100,000+ remain plausible if catalysts align. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
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